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2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

herman said:
Dappleganger said:
If the Leafs take out Kerfoot and replace him with Malgin are they really losing that much?

Kerfoot is third in TOI for the Leafs on the PK. We just lost Jarnkrok for at least two weeks, which is going to goose Engvall and Nylander's PK time upward, if not double-dipping Marner. Jarnkrok (11 face offs) was the backup faceoff guy after Kampf (110), so Kerfoot (12) and maybe Nylander (2) are going to have to take more, or Tavares will need to be air dropped in for FOGO.

Kampf 66:10 47W 63L
Marner 55:49 0W 0L
Kerfoot 43:10 5W 7L
Jarnkrok 39:54 7W 4L
Engvall 17:01 0W 1L
Nylander 5:22 0W 2L

Yeah, air dropping Tavares for the draws is a good idea. Nylander is good on the draw so he can step up. Maybe Pontus Holmberg can step up as well?

I'm more thinking Kerfoot vs Malgin in general. Kerfoot is last on the Leafs in Goals Above Expected with -4.7. Screen grab below shares some other advanced stats between Malgin and Kerfoot taken from Money Puck.

malker.png

 
CarltonTheBear said:
bustaheims said:
A 3C with a solid two-way game would be my target, for sure.

I'm on the Sean Monahan bandwagon if anyone wanted to join me.

I don't know where you'd find an affordable 3C that's effective two-ways. Otherwise they'd be more expensive 2Cs. I'm leaning Sean Kuraly.

More ideally, we find a way to finagle Owen Beck out of Montreal, but that's not a this year solution.
 
Dappleganger said:
Yeah, air dropping Tavares for the draws is a good idea. Nylander is good on the draw so he can step up. Maybe Pontus Holmberg can step up as well?

I'm more thinking Kerfoot vs Malgin in general. Kerfoot is last on the Leafs in Goals Above Expected with -4.7. Screen grab below shares some other advanced stats between Malgin and Kerfoot taken from Money Puck.

malker.png

That's fair; have to consider the role being played though.

It's going to be hard for the coaching staff to take out trusted PK and utility for very slightly more depth offense. The special teams minutes are higher leverage than what help Malgin brings. If Malgin was driving Nylander level offense then it'd be a no brainer and we figure out the PK some other way, but Malgin is producing just ok under curated minutes. I'm a Malgin truther, so it pains me a bit to say he's a lot of buzz but not really any real pop. Still good and useful in that bottom six role of killing time until the big guns catch their breath.

I kind of like that Keefe is using his spares for situational match ups.
 
This made me laugh

Moneypuck 5v5 xG vs G
PlayerxGoalsGoals
Matthews8.66
Tavares5.95
Nylander4.95
Marner2.97
 
herman said:
I don't know where you'd find an affordable 3C that's effective two-ways. Otherwise they'd be more expensive 2Cs. I'm leaning Sean Kuraly.

*slams table* we already have a Sean Kuraly!
 
bustaheims said:
Dappleganger said:
Ryan O'Reilly for 3C anyone?

He?d be my #1 choice, for sure, if he?s available. St Louis is still in the playoff hunt for now, though.

Certainly wouldn't say no to ROR as a player, but I'd be really worried about the price that it'd take to acquire him.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
bustaheims said:
Dappleganger said:
Ryan O'Reilly for 3C anyone?

He?d be my #1 choice, for sure, if he?s available. St Louis is still in the playoff hunt for now, though.

Certainly wouldn't say no to ROR as a player, but I'd be really worried about the price that it'd take to acquire him.

Sure, but with the reports that the Habs are considering trying to hold on to Monahan, your preferred option might not be any cheaper.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I'd say the team is overperforming somewhat.  Those colored bar graphs herman posted are pretty telling.

They've been getting excellent goaltending from their 2 starters, and above-average from the 3rd-stringer.  Sustainable?  Hmmmm

And truth be told, almost all the calls have been going our way lately. It's as if the hockey gods are feeling sorry for all those years they screwed us.

They're definitely getting some very good goaltending.
From what I've seen - and I've missed plenty, especially Murray - they're not standing on their head. Not much Cujo/Hasek stuff. It seems that they're stopping a higher percentage of what they should stop (like Belfour) and not giving up many softies. So there is a decent chance they might be all right.

Are they good enough to win a Cup? Well ...

Having said that, goaltending in the NHL makes my head spin. Two years ago, Hellebuyck was great. Last year, not so hot. This year, back to being great.  Last year, Shesterkin was great. This year, looks more human. On & on it goes. I could provide countless examples. There are very few goalie Gods.

On one hand, Dubas dropping Campbell for his current tandem looks brilliant. On the other, some will say "he was just lucky this year". I lean towards he deserves some credit - made moves I probably wouldn't have considered.

When I look at Campbell, obviously, he's having a brutal season. I have looked at a number of those goals and his team has given up a lot of good scoring chances. I haven't studied the stats to back up that impression. But it is obviously far from being all on Campbell. The Leafs and Oilers have some comparables but the Leaf skaters seem to be much better defensively. They deserve some credit for this 'overachieving' and it seems to start with their top four fowards. The Leafs bottom six fowards haven't been as good as I hoped so far.
 
Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Robertson - Tavares - Marner
Aston-Reese - Kampf - Engvall
Kerfoot - Holmberg - Der-Arguchintsev

would be my guess. Would not put a Robertson/Kerfoot swap past Keefe either, but it looks like Kerfoot is in bottom-6 whites (jogging dude)
https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1599833948309159936

edit: almost got it. splitting ZAR and Kampf still
https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1599836564976111616
 

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