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2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

L K said:
The Leafs are 7-5-6 (.714 PT%). They are 10-0-3 in their last 13 games with their last loss coming on November 12th to Pittsburgh where they lost 4-2 (with an ENG).

New Jersey is 10-1-1 (11-1-1) over that same stretch (the one loss to the Leafs)

Boston is 9-1-1 (11-1-1 in the same 13 games) over that same stretch.

So the Leafs have gained zero points in the standings despite not losing a game in 13 games.

To the teams in front of them, they've opened up more room with the teams chasing them, notably Tampa
 
Interesting article:

https://theathletic.com/3981319/2022/12/09/murray-samsonov-maple-leafs-defence/

My main take-away is how far off public expected goals models can be due to the fact that they only track shot location, not whether a shooter is pressured or there is pre-shot movement (the latter often being emphasized, the former less so).

Per Natural Stat Trick, a tip-in from this area on the ice has a 12 percent chance of going in, but I?d say the actual odds of the shot going in are closer to five percent because Cirelli is limited in where he can place the shot.

Natural Stat Trick?s model gives the initial Seguin shot a 10 percent chance of going in, which is probably a little high. In my own data set, unblocked shots that match the criteria of this shot go in closer to six percent of the time (eight goals, 65 saves, 55 missed nets).

So the shooting percentage may be cut roughly in half due a hidden variable that doesn't show up in the data.

The next step to take would be to start asking questions about what this means for playoff hockey where, presumably more shots are pressured.  Are there particular tactics (or player types) that one can deploy to make a difference?  Matthews and Marner's effectiveness have fallen off in the playoffs.  Is that something to expect going forward (in the regular season perhaps they generate more unpressured shots with movement but can't do the same in the playoffs)?  Is there any counter?
 
There absolutely is a counter to it and it relies more heavily on shot traffic, shot timing to disrupt the goaltender and crashing the net for rebounds

I think the Leafs have been shifting their style of play in that direction over the last 2-3 years

The Engvall goal was highlighted comparing to a Matthews shot as a good example.  Exact same move, toe drag and a good snap/wrist shot.  Matthews went glove side.  Engvall went blocker side.  More of that unpredictable shot direction will help
 
Bill_Berg_is_sad said:
I missed the game, but saw the replay of Engvall's penalty. Looked accidental to me.

https://twitter.com/mikeystephens81/status/1601050336265134081
If you watch his presser, you could see and hear he was saying it a bit tongue-in-cheek. But if you look into his eyes, Keefe is disappointed it wasn't at least a little on purpose. He's been pushing Engvall for years to assert his will physically on the ice. We can all imagine what it'd be like if Engvall played like he took Brian Burke hockey to heart.
 
Hopefully Anderson shows way more than he did in preseason. But if Malgin keeps finding himself in the pressbox even with two injured forwards I'm going to scream.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Hopefully Anderson shows way more than he did in preseason. But if Malgin keeps finding himself in the pressbox even with two injured forwards I'm going to scream.
https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1601254352634933248
 
Guilt Trip said:
CarltonTheBear said:
Hopefully Anderson shows way more than he did in preseason. But if Malgin keeps finding himself in the pressbox even with two injured forwards I'm going to scream.
https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1601254352634933248

Now you can scream in elation, maybe even jubilation.

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander (still going strong, who'dve thunk?)
Malgin - Tavares - Marner (they literally just need someone to bank a puck off of)
Engvall - Kampf - Kerfoot (Keefe's safety blanket players all together)
Aston-Reese - Holmberg - Anderson (can you kill time without getting killed?)
 
L K said:
Engvall is getting a phone hearing today

Automatic after the 5 and a game he got last night. I thought the penalty last night was too harsh - 2 and 10 probably would have sufficed - but, with the, ummm, inconsistent nature of NHL disciplinary actions, I just don't know anymore. Could be anything from a fine to a couple games.
 
Zee said:
L K said:
The Leafs are 7-5-6 (.714 PT%). They are 10-0-3 in their last 13 games with their last loss coming on November 12th to Pittsburgh where they lost 4-2 (with an ENG).

New Jersey is 10-1-1 (11-1-1) over that same stretch (the one loss to the Leafs)

Boston is 9-1-1 (11-1-1 in the same 13 games) over that same stretch.

So the Leafs have gained zero points in the standings despite not losing a game in 13 games.

To the teams in front of them, they've opened up more room with the teams chasing them, notably Tampa

https://twitter.com/ineffectivemath/status/1601272164807852032
 
L K said:
The Leafs are 7-5-6 (.714 PT%). They are 10-0-3 in their last 13 games with their last loss coming on November 12th to Pittsburgh where they lost 4-2 (with an ENG).

New Jersey is 10-1-1 (11-1-1) over that same stretch (the one loss to the Leafs)

Boston is 9-1-1 (11-1-1 in the same 13 games) over that same stretch.

So the Leafs have gained zero points in the standings despite not losing a game in 13 games.

I don't think many predicted New Jersey to be where they are.
I thought the Bruins looked like a bubble team.
I thought Calgary would do better than they have - maybe another toilet seat goalie.
I thought the Rangers would be doing better.
I thought the Oilers would be doing better.
I didn't think Winnipeg would be where they are now (another toilet seat goalie?) - I thought they might be south of the bubble teams.
I didn't think Seattle would be as good as they've been
(some of this may be due to it is too early in the schedule)
With all the injuries and the new on-the-fringe goalies plus losses in their bottom six, I did not expect the Leafs to be north of .700

Glad I don't bet on this league.
 
dekedastardly said:
Dunno about Joey Anderson. Would Steeves not have slightly more offensive upside? Feels like we already have enough no hands grindy plugs

With Jarnkrok injured and Engvall out for likely a game (or longer, who knows) the team would be down 2 regular PKers. Anderson could be the band-aid solution for that.
 
L K said:
Engvall gets 1 game

1 game is proper

Not sure what happened here on this retaliatory play that just missed being horrific:
https://twitter.com/frisbob/status/1601250974651514880
 
https://twitter.com/bradytrett/status/1601035248468623361
One game for parrying an attempted high stick and counter swinging
 
At least he can work on building up core and lower body strength while out of commission with his shoulder so that's good.  Probably would be best for him to finish the year in the AHL at this point.
 

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