2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
Interesting article:
https://theathletic.com/3981319/2022/12/09/murray-samsonov-maple-leafs-defence/
My main take-away is how far off public expected goals models can be due to the fact that they only track shot location, not whether a shooter is pressured or there is pre-shot movement (the latter often being emphasized, the former less so).
So the shooting percentage may be cut roughly in half due a hidden variable that doesn't show up in the data.
The next step to take would be to start asking questions about what this means for playoff hockey where, presumably more shots are pressured. Are there particular tactics (or player types) that one can deploy to make a difference? Matthews and Marner's effectiveness have fallen off in the playoffs. Is that something to expect going forward (in the regular season perhaps they generate more unpressured shots with movement but can't do the same in the playoffs)? Is there any counter?
https://theathletic.com/3981319/2022/12/09/murray-samsonov-maple-leafs-defence/
My main take-away is how far off public expected goals models can be due to the fact that they only track shot location, not whether a shooter is pressured or there is pre-shot movement (the latter often being emphasized, the former less so).
So the shooting percentage may be cut roughly in half due a hidden variable that doesn't show up in the data.
The next step to take would be to start asking questions about what this means for playoff hockey where, presumably more shots are pressured. Are there particular tactics (or player types) that one can deploy to make a difference? Matthews and Marner's effectiveness have fallen off in the playoffs. Is that something to expect going forward (in the regular season perhaps they generate more unpressured shots with movement but can't do the same in the playoffs)? Is there any counter?
L K
Active member
There absolutely is a counter to it and it relies more heavily on shot traffic, shot timing to disrupt the goaltender and crashing the net for rebounds
I think the Leafs have been shifting their style of play in that direction over the last 2-3 years
The Engvall goal was highlighted comparing to a Matthews shot as a good example. Exact same move, toe drag and a good snap/wrist shot. Matthews went glove side. Engvall went blocker side. More of that unpredictable shot direction will help
I think the Leafs have been shifting their style of play in that direction over the last 2-3 years
The Engvall goal was highlighted comparing to a Matthews shot as a good example. Exact same move, toe drag and a good snap/wrist shot. Matthews went glove side. Engvall went blocker side. More of that unpredictable shot direction will help
herman
Well-known member
Bill_Berg_is_sad said:
https://twitter.com/mikeystephens81/status/1601050336265134081
If you watch his presser, you could see and hear he was saying it a bit tongue-in-cheek. But if you look into his eyes, Keefe is disappointed it wasn't at least a little on purpose. He's been pushing Engvall for years to assert his will physically on the ice. We can all imagine what it'd be like if Engvall played like he took Brian Burke hockey to heart.
Hopefully Anderson shows way more than he did in preseason. But if Malgin keeps finding himself in the pressbox even with two injured forwards I'm going to scream.
Guilt Trip
Active member
https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1601254352634933248CarltonTheBear said:
herman
Well-known member
Guilt Trip said:
Now you can scream in elation, maybe even jubilation.
Bunting - Matthews - Nylander (still going strong, who'dve thunk?)
Malgin - Tavares - Marner (they literally just need someone to bank a puck off of)
Engvall - Kampf - Kerfoot (Keefe's safety blanket players all together)
Aston-Reese - Holmberg - Anderson (can you kill time without getting killed?)
bustaheims
Active member
L K said:
Automatic after the 5 and a game he got last night. I thought the penalty last night was too harsh - 2 and 10 probably would have sufficed - but, with the, ummm, inconsistent nature of NHL disciplinary actions, I just don't know anymore. Could be anything from a fine to a couple games.
dekedastardly
Member
Dunno about Joey Anderson. Would Steeves not have slightly more offensive upside? Feels like we already have enough no hands grindy plugs
L K said:
I don't think many predicted New Jersey to be where they are.
I thought the Bruins looked like a bubble team.
I thought Calgary would do better than they have - maybe another toilet seat goalie.
I thought the Rangers would be doing better.
I thought the Oilers would be doing better.
I didn't think Winnipeg would be where they are now (another toilet seat goalie?) - I thought they might be south of the bubble teams.
I didn't think Seattle would be as good as they've been
(some of this may be due to it is too early in the schedule)
With all the injuries and the new on-the-fringe goalies plus losses in their bottom six, I did not expect the Leafs to be north of .700
Glad I don't bet on this league.
dekedastardly said:
With Jarnkrok injured and Engvall out for likely a game (or longer, who knows) the team would be down 2 regular PKers. Anderson could be the band-aid solution for that.