A Kampf-Lorentz-(Not Reeves) might even be better then McMann/Holmberg/Domi/Robertson combo.
2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
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herman
Well-known member
Leafs Notebook: Early surprises, lineup thoughts, power play adjustments, and the roster decisions ahead
With the Maple Leafs sitting at 7-5-2 through 14 games, we examined the positives and areas for improvement earlier today. Now, it’s time to examine the individual performances, lineup decisions, possible adjustments, and the upcoming roster crunch in more detail in the Notes, Quotes, and Five...
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Anthony’s suggested roster when healthy:
Knies-Matthews-Jarnkrok
Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander
McMann-Domi-Marner
Lorentz-Kampf-Dewar
Not sure if this is cap compliant if we are keeping the two more expensive depth players in Kampf/Jarnkrok
Cap space is no longer an issue post-Lily trade. If Jarnkrok, Hakanpaa, and Dewar all came off LTIR right now they would be just $1.75mil over the cap and need to cut 3 roster players. So any 3 roster players would get them under the cap.
Leafs Notebook: Early surprises, lineup thoughts, power play adjustments, and the roster decisions ahead
With the Maple Leafs sitting at 7-5-2 through 14 games, we examined the positives and areas for improvement earlier today. Now, it’s time to examine the individual performances, lineup decisions, possible adjustments, and the upcoming roster crunch in more detail in the Notes, Quotes, and Five...
Anthony’s suggested roster when healthy:
Knies-Matthews-Jarnkrok
Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander
McMann-Domi-Marner
Lorentz-Kampf-Dewar
Not sure if this is cap compliant if we are keeping the two more expensive depth players in Kampf/Jarnkrok
McMann - Domi - Marner is a bizarro line.
I don't really expect the Leafs to go this route, but if they did they'd need a better option for Matthews' RW. I like Jarnkrok more than most but Matthews still deserves better there. Maybe Patrick Kane finally happens here at the deadline.
I was looking at other possible options this deadline and didn't realize Claude Giroux was a pending UFA. Always liked him as a player. He's still going strong even at 36 (turning 37 in January). Had 64 points last season, 11 in 13 games this season. Can play centre or wing. A trade might be unlikely because of the whole rivalry thing but if he wants to play in the playoffs this year and doesn't want to move too far from home right now it could be an option. Would basically be a mini-ROR deal.
I cannot say it enough, spread the core 4 over 3.
Kines-Matthews-Domi
Pac-Tavares-Nylander
Jankrok-Kampf-Marner
Lorentz-Dewar-McMann/Reeves
It has to be Matthews/Domi because we know it works. 2nd line is cooking so no change. Marner moves to a shutdown line that can score. I do not care how many apples Marner gets if we have balance, Domi can have some apples too. We do not need Marner playing with Matthews.
With balanced 5V5 ice times, the core will have even more opportunity to play both the PK and PP. Our third line as composed is useless at scoring and defending.
Kines-Matthews-Domi
Pac-Tavares-Nylander
Jankrok-Kampf-Marner
Lorentz-Dewar-McMann/Reeves
It has to be Matthews/Domi because we know it works. 2nd line is cooking so no change. Marner moves to a shutdown line that can score. I do not care how many apples Marner gets if we have balance, Domi can have some apples too. We do not need Marner playing with Matthews.
With balanced 5V5 ice times, the core will have even more opportunity to play both the PK and PP. Our third line as composed is useless at scoring and defending.
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herman
Well-known member
A shoot-first winger with two passers?
A heavy forechecker supporting two puck controllers?
A defensively-suspect pivot between two relatively strong defensive wingers?
It's a bit better defensively on paper than Knies-Domi-Marner, losing a bit of offensive ability with Knies' ascendance. Getting a softer 3rd line matchup while still being able to rip up the ice on counters seems like it could work.
I think Marner is unlocked when he's the top banana on the line, but I also think he might chafe at decreased 5v5 deployment. He can accordion up whenever the bench is shortened, and the team really ought to preserve some of his energy for the playoffs instead of running him at 1RD minutes.
Yeah, Jarnkrok probably doesn't cut it, especially if Matthews has any ailments holding him back. However, a winger is easier to acquire than a centre... Not sure I'd want Kane (his underlyings are tanking this year)
Extremely unlikely, but if Robertson gets a shot with Pacioretty-Tavares like they intended in training camp and can adequately fulfill Nylander's role (NZ transporter + slot shooter), then Knies-Matthews-Nylander would be quite an improvement.
Ozzie
Member
It seems that whenever Matthews is gone, or Marner is gone, or Reilly is gone.... Leafs play really well.
Too many stars in the kitchen. The evidence of that is the PP which has gone from worst to first since Matthews has been out.
Does Berube have the balls to keep the winning line PP1 untouched when AM34 returns, and give Matthews a PP2 line?
Does he have the balls to put Marner on the 3rd line like you suggest? With Domi and Matthews together.... which activates the animal in Matthews (remember his face on the bench going hysterical was during those days w Domi when Marner was out).
It's not up to Berube. It's the ownership, as instructed by Shanahan. They want the elite stars show-ponied out there. They will never trade them. They will sign them for ridiculous sums unprecedented in the NHL with terrible team unfriendly terms. Because this brings in corporate goodwill for Rogers. Winning is not the objective if it entails risk.
What is the chance that Berube will keep Matthews out of this hot PP1 line when Matthews returns?
I think one of the complaints I have in general (not specifically with these line combos) is that McMann doesn't do enough "heavy forecheker" stuff nearly as much as fans would like.
Perhaps Berube can bring that out of him more; we shall see.
herman
Well-known member
That is very true this season. You can see Berube gently guiding him to that particular water trough with the comments that he is a similar player to Pacioretty in size, speed, physicality.
He is good for it when he focuses on forechecking. I think playing with Domi gives him pause (feels like he can’t check too committed or deep if he has to sprint back). Looked more comfortable with Holmberg and Kampf throwing his weight around.
bustaheims
Well-known member
Leafs record Since 2016-17
365-193-76 (.636 Pts %)
Without Matthews 38-19-2 (.661 %) - multiple short stretches rather than many long ones. Not really indicative of anything other than the team being able to go into "weather the storm" mode for a week or so at a time.
Without Marner 20-17-5 (.536 %) - substantially worse than their overall record - 88 pt pace compared to 104.
Without Nylander 25-10-2 (.703 %) - almost entirely from his hold out in 18-19.
Without Tavares 11-2-2 (.800%) - also mostly from really short stretches.
Without Rielly 41-17-5 (.690 %) - some extended stretches, a suspension, and other short stretches.
The team has shown an ability to come together for short stretches when missing a key forward, but, in more recent years, when one of them was out longer-term (so, really, only the Marner injury), they struggle. What we're seeing are some small sample sizes, which means you can't really draw much conclusions from them. You also shouldn't be adjusting your strategies or lineup configurations significantly because of how things played out during those stretches, either. The most we can really glean from this is that we don't have to be too concerned about minor injuries to the star players. Anything more than that is a risky proposition.
Ozzie
Member
This is excellent.
What does this look like when we look at the past 4 seasons? Did you use AI to compile this?
Lots to unwrap here.
Still no Matthews at practice, which is unfortunate and probably indicates he won't play this Tues/Wed.
Dewar and Hakanpaa both now back from their Marlies conditioning stint. Hakanpaa notably still outside the top-6 so the team likely feels he needs a practice or two before making his debut.
Domi and Nylander missed practice for maintenance reasons. Their spots in the line-up (1C, 2RW) are being held by place-holders. The 3RW spot currently being held by Myers is presumably being kept warm for Dewar I'd imagine, unless the team makes a call-up by tomorrow.
bustaheims
Well-known member
I found the numbers on another site, so, not much else I can do with them, unfortunately.
herman
Well-known member
I’d say the only lesson here from this Matthews downtime is that Berube (and Keefe do a different degree) are right: direct hockey on 5v5 and PP. pretty sure we’ve been saying it here for two to three years.
Marner is unlocked when he’s not forcing everything to Matthews, which started once they were united on a line and Matthews developed the one-timer on the PP. I wanted to move on from him because it was the default for him throughout the playoffs, and opposing teams keyed in on it hard and that 23M of the roster never adjusted. But if he can keep that direct mentality even with Matthews back (on his line or otherwise)…
Marner is unlocked when he’s not forcing everything to Matthews, which started once they were united on a line and Matthews developed the one-timer on the PP. I wanted to move on from him because it was the default for him throughout the playoffs, and opposing teams keyed in on it hard and that 23M of the roster never adjusted. But if he can keep that direct mentality even with Matthews back (on his line or otherwise)…
Tough break for Jarnkrok. Seemed fine at the end of preseason. I missed that it was reported last week that he had begun skating. Not to say that he's the answer to all the teams problems but the 3rd line certainly looks like it could use a different look and he'd at least be a different option.
Now with both him and Pacioretty out I would be looking at AHL options there. Both Steeves and Grebenkin look like they've been playing well. Could also be an opportunity for A. Nylander if they want to get him signed.