Blues @ Leafs - Mar. 25th, 7:00pm - SN, TSN 1050

[bustaheims]

Point out to me where I've ever said Carlyle has done great things in Toronto, and I'll answer your question. This debate was never about whether or not I think Carlyle is a great coach, the argument is coming from you guys saying he's the main problem. To that end, I've always been of the belief that there are bigger issues with this team than the coaching.

Nicely deflected. Just what I was expecting. And, as we've pointed out a number of time, a number of the bigger issues you see with the team correlated pretty highly with the impact of coaching and strategy and/or are things that have gotten worse since Carlyle took over behind the Leafs' bench, and, yet, you continue to defend him.

 

[Redleaf]

MY point is that you don't know what a new coach brings to the table until it happens. I have a hard time going along with an off-the-cuff remark that 'he can't be worse'. You just don't know that.

I mean in terms of play.  They can't really allow more chances/shots against, their PK can't really get appreciably worse, they can't really give up more possession time.

Leafs are a capped out team on the playoff bubble.  Can't really afford to waste more of Kessel's best years.  Maybe it will or won't work with another coach, but it hasn't worked with the current one.  The team has not improved under Carlyle, and arguably taken a step back.

This is highly debatable. Their W-L record since Wilson left suggests the team has improved. And you've already admitted to preferring the team now that is 'under' Carlyle as opposed to the one that was 'under' Wilson.

Right, I prefer the players on the roster.  W-L record is not a good indication of how the team is playing, especially one enhanced by the SO, but we won't rehash this for the millionth time.

If the W-L record isn't a good indication of whether or not a team is improving, then which indicator should we use?

Goal differential, shot differential to name a couple. Leafs are on pace to give up more shots than an expansion team that won 17 games, how is that improvement?  That shouldn't even be possible.  Leafs points percentage is 19th in the league.  Leafs PK is 28th, in 2011-12 it was 28th.  Goals per game in 11-12 was 2.77, this season is 2.80.  Goals against per game in 11-12 was 3.16 (29th), this season is 3.04 (26th).  PP is 2% better this season than in 11-12.

The Leafs are on the same regulation/OT points pace this season as in Wilson's last season.  Like I said, this roster is better.  SO's are a crapshoot and not something you can expect to repeat season to season.

I struggle to see what improvements have been made with a better roster and FAR better goaltending.  Where have improvements been made?  Any positive differences from Wilson's last season to this season are incremental at best (ex. GA/G and PP differences) and in some cases are clearly attributable to Bernier's goaltending.

But which one should be used to indicate whether or not a team has improved or declined over a lengthy period of time? Its a pretty simple question that shouldnt need to be dissected and broken into a million parts.

There is never going to be one magic number or stat that tells you that.  You have to examine all of the available data to come to your own conclusion.

Thank-you, because up to now I've been under the impression that your conclusions have been submitted as being factual.

 

[Redleaf]

Point out to me where I've ever said Carlyle has done great things in Toronto, and I'll answer your question. This debate was never about whether or not I think Carlyle is a great coach, the argument is coming from you guys saying he's the main problem. To that end, I've always been of the belief that there are bigger issues with this team than the coaching.

Nicely deflected. Just what I was expecting. And, as we've pointed out a number of time, a number of the bigger issues you see with the team correlated pretty highly with the impact of coaching and strategy and/or are things that have gotten worse since Carlyle took over behind the Leafs' bench, and, yet, you continue to defend him.

I don't defend the man. I defend the argument. Nobody really knows for sure whether or not a coaching change will improve this team, but you guys continue to beat the argument to death like its an absolute fact. I'll admit, Im not sure a coaching change would help, because I think the problems run deeper than just that, but I do admit to not knowing.

 

[lamajama]

Point out to me where I've ever said Carlyle has done great things in Toronto, and I'll answer your question. This debate was never about whether or not I think Carlyle is a great coach, the argument is coming from you guys saying he's the main problem. To that end, I've always been of the belief that there are bigger issues with this team than the coaching.

Nicely deflected. Just what I was expecting. And, as we've pointed out a number of time, a number of the bigger issues you see with the team correlated pretty highly with the impact of coaching and strategy and/or are things that have gotten worse since Carlyle took over behind the Leafs' bench, and, yet, you continue to defend him.

Anyone who has looked at any of my posts regarding RC knows I believe he is doing a poor job. By almost all measurable stats we're awful let alone wins and losses and squeaking into the playoffs or not. Save for the PK last year we have regressed. If not for the weak Eastern Conference we'd be even lower. I cannot fathom his strategy of dressing players for 2-4 min of ice time nor his defensive "system". Offence is extremely hard to teach. Defensive play certainly can be taught but not in Toronto it seems. I also believe we have the most talented roster in a number of years in Toronto but collectively the team is a crapshoot.

I defy anyone to be able to predict how this team will play in any particular game.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't defend the man. I defend the argument. Nobody really knows for sure whether or not a coaching change will improve this team, but you guys continue to beat the argument to death like its an absolute fact. I'll admit, Im not sure a coaching change would help, because I think the problems run deeper than just that, but I do admit to not knowing.

Well, whether you agree with or not, a strong argument can be made that Carlyle is hurting the team, while I've yet to see any real credible argument as to how Carlyle is helping the team. At the end of the day, no one can say for sure that a coaching change will help the team - that's almost entirely dependent on who the next coach will be - but, based on the evidence available, I can see with a very strong degree of certainty that a coaching change will not hurt the team. The areas where they are strong succeed largely independent of coaching, and the areas where they are weak cannot get appreciably weaker than they already are. What we're saying is that a coaching change has stronger odds of improving the team than any other move, and it also has the potential to impact more areas where the team struggles than any other potential move. Since things really can't get worse with another coach, and changing the coach is the most straightforward move that can be made by the team, wouldn't the smartest route be to make that move before considering the more complicated alternatives? I mean, worst case scenario, you find yourself having the make the moves you already felt you had to make.

 

[AvroArrow]

We could get a coach that doesn't have time for error prone rookies

Don't we already have this?  Didn't he come out and say his job isn't to develop young players, it's to win?  You need both.

 

[Peter D.]

Great news about Bernier if he is indeed the started.  I am a little worried though (actually, a lot) that thrusting him in tonight as opposed to giving him the extra three days off could will cause a bigger setback.  Then again, desperate times call for desperate measures.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

Great news about Bernier if he is indeed the started.  I am a little worried though (actually, a lot) that thrusting him in tonight as opposed to giving him the extra three days off could will cause a bigger setback.  Then again, desperate times call for desperate measures.

and even if he gets in this game and is up for it ..you have to think they can't risk that groin in back to back starts like friday/saturday right?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

@DavidAmber 

#Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

800!

 

[bustaheims]

@DavidAmber 

#Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

800!

Bah. That's only like 11 shots per game.

 

[Kin]

@DavidAmber 

#Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

800!

Bah. That's only like 11 shots per game.

My goodness. It's almost like our #1 defenseman would be their #4.

 

[Redleaf]

Great news about Bernier if he is indeed the started.  I am a little worried though (actually, a lot) that thrusting him in tonight as opposed to giving him the extra three days off could will cause a bigger setback.  Then again, desperate times call for desperate measures.

This is my biggest concern as well. St. Louis is a pretty good team. A win using either goalie is a crapshoot. Considering a loss could be magnified even greater by the loss of Bernier for the rest of the season, and you have to really question the decision to start him. (unless he is 100% healthy, which I don't believe to be the case.)

 

[Redleaf]

I don't defend the man. I defend the argument. Nobody really knows for sure whether or not a coaching change will improve this team, but you guys continue to beat the argument to death like its an absolute fact. I'll admit, Im not sure a coaching change would help, because I think the problems run deeper than just that, but I do admit to not knowing.

Well, whether you agree with or not, a strong argument can be made that Carlyle is hurting the team, while I've yet to see any real credible argument as to how Carlyle is helping the team. At the end of the day, no one can say for sure that a coaching change will help the team - that's almost entirely dependent on who the next coach will be - but, based on the evidence available, I can see with a very strong degree of certainty that a coaching change will not hurt the team. The areas where they are strong succeed largely independent of coaching, and the areas where they are weak cannot get appreciably weaker than they already are. What we're saying is that a coaching change has stronger odds of improving the team than any other move, and it also has the potential to impact more areas where the team struggles than any other potential move. Since things really can't get worse with another coach, and changing the coach is the most straightforward move that can be made by the team, wouldn't the smartest route be to make that move before considering the more complicated alternatives? I mean, worst case scenario, you find yourself having the make the moves you already felt you had to make.

You guys are arguing a lot about 'worst case scenarios' being what we already have, but there are a lot of unknowns when getting a new boss bench that you need to factor in. Look what happened in Edmonton with Dallas Eakins, the supposed answer to their problems (and ours, if he had come in instead of Carlyle). I don't think it's as easy as changing coaches, and instantly expecting better results.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

@DavidAmber 

#Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

800!

Bah. That's only like 11 shots per game.

My goodness. It's almost like our #1 defenseman would be their #4.

Where would the Islanders' #1 defenseman rank on St. Louis?  They manage to allow close to 500 shots less than the Leafs.  Vancouver's? Pittsburgh's? Philly's?

It's pretty insane any way you slice it.  800 is a crazy difference, almost 200 more than any other team.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

@DavidAmber 

#Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

800!

Bah. That's only like 11 shots per game.

And roughly 1 goal per game.

EDIT: So somehow in 2011-12, with the Leafs top 4 defensemen being Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Gardiner and Liles, the Leafs by game 73 managed to allow roughly ~380 less shots (using their 82 game pace) than this season, where their top 3 defensemen are Phaneuf, Franson, Gardiner, Gunnarsson.

 

[bustaheims]

My goodness. It's almost like our #1 defenseman would be their #4.

My heavens. It's almost like they play a much more structured and disciplined defensive system than the Leafs do!

 

[Coco-puffs]

@DavidAmber 

#Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

800!

Bah. That's only like 11 shots per game.

And roughly 1 goal per game.

Heck, I'd take league average shots against.  That would be about 475 less shots so far, 40 less goals against.

 

[bustaheims]

You guys are arguing a lot about 'worst case scenarios' being what we already have, but there are a lot of unknowns when getting a new boss bench that you need to factor in. Look what happened in Edmonton with Dallas Eakins, the supposed answer to their problems (and ours, if he had come in instead of Carlyle). I don't think it's as easy as changing coaches, and instantly expecting better results.

Again, no one is expecting instantly better results, but, that changing coaches is going to have a much more significant impact on the team than anything they can realistically do in terms of the players on the roster. And, as for the unknowns . . . even with them, really, the team cannot play much worse than they have this season. Things will be different, but, at worse, that difference will see similar results to what we've seen this season.

 

[Kin]

My goodness. It's almost like our #1 defenseman would be their #4.

My heavens. It's almost like they play a much more structured and disciplined defensive system than the Leafs do!

So did Canada's Olympic team. The Leafs really should choose to play like them next year.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

@DavidAmber 

#Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

800!

Bah. That's only like 11 shots per game.

My goodness. It's almost like our #1 defenseman would be their #4.

does it also mean our goalie would have theirs playing on our farm team?