Bozak's Future

[GhostofPotvin29]

Talk about misleading stats though Potvin, the list you posted has Stempniak comparing somewhat favorably with Backes and Colby fricking Armstrong not far behind, which seems crazy to me.

It tells you less than nothing about what these players really mean to their respective teams.

It's comparing similar production of players aged 22-27 through their first 4 seasons.  It's not saying look at these stats blindly, but I don't see how it doesn't make more sense than comparing him to a guy like Turris.  It's trying to put his career so far in perspective - look at that list, and then use other factors to determine where he fits.

You're right, it does just show you how stats can be misleading though when looked at in a vacum

I mean Armstrong, Stempniak and Backes had almost identical starts and then one became a scrub, one became a marginal scorer and the other a top centre ice man.

Which does Bozak become?

I think a cup winner could win it all with Backes spearheading things, I highly doubt the same is true of Bozak.

He's likely a very good third liner on a deep team.

Yeah, that's where you scout the player on other things like good defensive play - which a good number of players on that list possess.  I mean, didn't Armstrong play with Crosby in Pittsburgh or something?  Helps explain his elevated #'s in his first few seasons.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Yeah, that's where you scout the player on other things like good defensive play - which a good number of players on that list possess.

Oh absolutely, I wonder if some of the talking heads realize that though, it seems like some of them look like the raw stats and just start making ridiculous comparisons. 

I mean a national network and more than one publication has had apparently respected hockey minds talking about Tyler Bozak being worth $5.5 million per year, it's more than a little insane.

Which in turn stirs up conversation with the casual fan now believing that Bozak is going to be paid Grabovski money.

 

[cw]

I'm comfortable saying there is ZERO chance he is a #1 C on a cup winning team, and to be honest I can't see any team signing him to be a #1 C on their team.  Despite playing the role of #1 C, even with 2 guys who put up around a PPG last season, he produces like a 3rd liner.

On a lot of NHL teams, he would not even be their #2 center

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think two decent com parables for Bozak would be Matt Moulson and P.A. Parenteau. Obviously, both made their fame by playing wing on Tavares' line in Long Island.

Statistically, both had more impressive NHL stats than Bozak did when it came time to renegotiating their deals. Moulson was coming off back-to-back 30 goal campaigns and signed a 3-year deal with a cap hit of $3.133mil. He was about Bozak's age at the time. Parenteau was coming off a 67 point season and received a 4-year deal from Colorado worth $16mil.

Just looking at their goals and assists you could argue that both were underpaid. But I think GMs and scouts were smart enough to realize where part of their success came from. And I think that they'll see that about Bozak too. Especially Nonis and company. I think most GMs make their mistakes on July 1st when they try to sign somebody that they believe will flourish when given a bigger role. Ville Leino, for instance, would be a good example. He put up pretty good points while getting 3rd line ice-time in his final season in Philly, imagine what he could do with 1st line ice-time. Well, that obviously didn't work out. But in situations like with Bozak, or Moulson, or Parenteau, where the player is getting prime ice-time with his teams top players, I think GMs have a pretty good idea as to what that players value is when it comes time to negotiate a new contract.

 

[moon111]

I'm not convinced he's a great improvement over Stajan.  He's maxed out.  Top ice-time, top line-mates, power-play ice-time, etc.  Would be a good 3rd liner and should be paid like one.

 

[gunnar36]

I'm not convinced he's a great improvement over Stajan.  He's maxed out.  Top ice-time, top line-mates, power-play ice-time, etc.  Would be a good 3rd liner and should be paid like one.

That's funny that I was just about to post something similar.
This reminds me a lot of Stajan in the 09-10 season where he was putting up good numbers in his contract year (41 points in 55 games with leafs) but was also benefiting from top line work and 1st pp time.  At the time I remember talk about him being worth in the 4 million range based on production.....that would have been a huge mistake.

Bozak does remind me of Stajan too.  Not a first liner, probably not a very good second either.  People say a good 3rd liner but I disagree as I would prefer a 3rd liner that has a little more size and grit.  So I really don't see where his niche would be on a good team.  He has proved to be valuable on faceoffs but is very stationary in defensive zone and his line is often hemmed in their end.

If I was Nonis I would definitely feel out the trade deadline market for him because I don't see a long productive future for him.

 

[Mike1]

That's funny that I was just about to post something similar.
This reminds me a lot of Stajan in the 09-10 season where he was putting up good numbers in his contract year (41 points in 55 games with leafs) but was also benefiting from top line work and 1st pp time.  At the time I remember talk about him being worth in the 4 million range based on production.....that would have been a huge mistake.

Bozak does remind me of Stajan too.  Not a first liner, probably not a very good second either.  People say a good 3rd liner but I disagree as I would prefer a 3rd liner that has a little more size and grit.  So I really don't see where his niche would be on a good team.  He has proved to be valuable on faceoffs but is very stationary in defensive zone and his line is often hemmed in their end.

If I was Nonis I would definitely feel out the trade deadline market for him because I don't see a long productive future for him.

Bang on. The Leafs did the right thing not committing to Stajan. I think they would also be doing the right thing not signing Bozak. Especially for the ridiculous numbers that have been suggested by certain media members during intermissions & on twitter.

Kadri looks like he has more upside & Grabovski, in my opinion has been the one that has been hurt the most by the Lupul/Frattin injuries because he doesn't play with any real offensive talent.

 

[Tigger]

Grabovski is also being used in a much different role, one that will hopefully have a big payoff in the playoffs if the Leafs can get there.

 

[proteus2000]

Bozak does remind me of Stajan too.  Not a first liner, probably not a very good second either.  People say a good 3rd liner but I disagree as I would prefer a 3rd liner that has a little more size and grit.  So I really don't see where his niche would be on a good team.  He has proved to be valuable on faceoffs but is very stationary in defensive zone and his line is often hemmed in their end.

If I was Nonis I would definitely feel out the trade deadline market for him because I don't see a long productive future for him.
[/quote]

I don't think the market will feel much better about him then you do...I'd say he'd net at best a 2nd round pick. Might as well keep him for a playoff run, and risk losing him in the off season. He will never play with better linemates than Kessel/Lupul/JVR, and I think he knows it...

 

[moon111]

Does Bozak influence Kessel resigning? 

 

[malkin10]

sorry, but i can't take this bozak/kessel s+++ anymore. bye bye bozie. he can help another team s 2nd more likely 3rd line. 2 min 5 on 3 and the leafs waste a timeout, why? so you can keep your leading scorer (and centerman) on the bench. your being shopped boz...  bye bud!

 

[Champ Kind]

sorry, but i can't take this bozak/kessel s+++ anymore. bye bye bozie. he can help another team s 2nd more likely 3rd line. 2 min 5 on 3 and the leafs waste a timeout, why? so you can keep your leading scorer (and centerman) on the bench. your being shopped boz...  bye bud!

Welcome to the board.  A bit reactionary, no? 

 

[lc9]

sorry, but i can't take this bozak/kessel s+++ anymore. bye bye bozie. he can help another team s 2nd more likely 3rd line. 2 min 5 on 3 and the leafs waste a timeout, why? so you can keep your leading scorer (and centerman) on the bench. your being shopped boz...  bye bud!

Welcome to the board.  A bit reactionary, no? 

I don't think so. It is embarrassing that Carlye keeps Bozak and Kessel together, and more so that Bozak gets PP time.  '

And can we please dis-spell the notion that Bozak is a whiz at faceoffs.  He has been above 55% just once in the past 10 games and was last night in a 5-2 loss.  I've seen enough of him.  I hope he gets traded.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

And can we please dis-spell the notion that Bozak is a whiz at faceoffs.  He has been above 55% just once in the past 10 games and was last night in a 5-2 loss.  I've seen enough of him.  I hope he gets traded.

So? That doesn't dis-spell the notion because he hasn't been above 55% for 10 games straight.  He'd probably be tops in the league if he was doing that.  He's still at 54% for the season, taking the 3rd most face-offs in the league.  That's very, very good.  Only Crosby has taken more face-offs with a better FO%.  His % would probably be even higher if he didn't take so many.

He can be criticized for a lot of things, but face-off's isn't one of them.  He's among the best in the league.

 

[Peter D.]

I'm not convinced he's a great improvement over Stajan.  He's maxed out.  Top ice-time, top line-mates, power-play ice-time, etc.  Would be a good 3rd liner and should be paid like one.

Stajan's the comparable I use for Bozak and why I would go no higher than $3.5M for him.

 

[Peter D.]

Desharnais got a contract exactly like Stajan's -- 4 years/$14M.  He put up 60 points last year.  He was also an upcoming RFA.

As such and as I suggested earlier, I believe this is a deal that would be pretty reasonable for Bozak. 

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Desharnais got a contract exactly like Stajan's -- 4 years/$14M.  He put up 60 points last year.  He was also an upcoming RFA.

As such and as I suggested earlier, I believe this is a deal that would be pretty reasonable for Bozak. 

However, I hope he doesn't get that with the Leafs. I could live with 3-3.5 a season, but if he is going to get more than that, I'd rather saved that and add more to it for a real number one.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Dreger today said that the Leafs would be alright with Bozak walking via free agency, and that they would look for a 2nd or 3rd line centre in the summer. People are making a pretty big deal about this, but to me I think he was just talking out loud.

It just doesn't make sense to me. If they're looking for a 2nd or 3rd line centre what does it mean about their C1 position? Is that spot being saved for Kadri? If so, why not just re-sign Bozak anyway and have him centre the 3rd line? That way we have somebody on the team that could centre any of the top-3 lines and not look completely out of place doing so.

 

[Frank E]

Dreger today said that the Leafs would be alright with Bozak walking via free agency, and that they would look for a 2nd or 3rd line centre in the summer. People are making a pretty big deal about this, but to me I think he was just talking out loud.

It just doesn't make sense to me. If they're looking for a 2nd or 3rd line centre what does it mean about their C1 position? Is that spot being saved for Kadri? If so, why not just re-sign Bozak anyway and have him centre the 3rd line? That way we have somebody on the team that could centre any of the top-3 lines and not look completely out of place doing so.

I don't think Bozak wants that job.

I bet he wants C2 ice-time.

 

[Bonsixx]

Dreger today said that the Leafs would be alright with Bozak walking via free agency, and that they would look for a 2nd or 3rd line centre in the summer. People are making a pretty big deal about this, but to me I think he was just talking out loud.

It just doesn't make sense to me. If they're looking for a 2nd or 3rd line centre what does it mean about their C1 position? Is that spot being saved for Kadri? If so, why not just re-sign Bozak anyway and have him centre the 3rd line? That way we have somebody on the team that could centre any of the top-3 lines and not look completely out of place doing so.

I don't think Bozak wants that job.

I bet he wants C2 ice-time.

At this point, I don't think I'd be opposed to re-signing Bozak at, hopefully, around $3 - 3.5 million and either trading or buying out Grabovski. Grabo was/is my favourite player on the team, but he's so overpaid right now.