Contracts for the Big-3

[Kin]

That's not exactly how it works Nik.

That is exactly how it works. Unless Matthews and his team decide to not negotiate at all in June and they'd do that...why?

That said, we're still back to the fact that offer sheets are only really threats if there's a real chance the team won't match. So Matthews signing an offer sheet would either depend on him just desperately wanting to leave Toronto(in which case he's probably better off demanding a trade because any sort of reasonable offer sheet would be matched) or on him wanting an unreasonable salary in which case A) I think the Leafs match anyway and B) it still depends on finding a team that is willing to offer him an unreasonable amount of money.

So I actually tend to think the better a player is the less likely they are to be offer sheeted. The odds of it ever working out well for the team that makes the offer are so slight as to be not really worth mentioning, hence never seeing them.

 

[Bates]

No, leverage Isn't simply whether he signs or not. Matthews will get whatever contract he wants as he has leverage. There is an NHL team willing to give a franchise center whatever is  necessary to try to get him. Nylander has no such demand.

That's not exactly how it works Nik.

That is exactly how it works. Unless Matthews and his team decide to not negotiate at all in June and they'd do that...why?

That said, we're still back to the fact that offer sheets are only really threats if there's a real chance the team won't match. So Matthews signing an offer sheet would either depend on him just desperately wanting to leave Toronto(in which case he's probably better off demanding a trade because any sort of reasonable offer sheet would be matched) or on him wanting an unreasonable salary in which case A) I think the Leafs match anyway and B) it still depends on finding a team that is willing to offer him an unreasonable amount of money.

So I actually tend to think the better a player is the less likely they are to be offer sheeted. The odds of it ever working out well for the team that makes the offer are so slight as to be not really worth mentioning, hence never seeing them.

 

[Kin]

There is an NHL team willing to give a franchise center whatever is  necessary to try to get him.

I don't think that's true. Every NHL team still needs to care about the cap and unless you can credibly say that a team can win paying one player 20% of their cap then it's very unlikely a team would offer that to him even if he were the best player in the league, which he isn't.

Matthews is still going to have to work within the NHL's salary system because that salary system has established that no player is worth torpedoing your team for and Matthews doesn't have the leverage to change that. Either he signs at a rate where he helps the team he's signing with, in which case the Leafs will match, or he's signing at a rate which will hurt the team he's signing with and Matthews doesn't get to decide how teams determine that line. 

 

[Bates]

I'm very confident that if Matthews is available on July 1st he will see an offer that makes him the League's highest Cap hit. That's leverage as he Isn't the League's best player.

There is an NHL team willing to give a franchise center whatever is  necessary to try to get him.

I don't think that's true. Every NHL team still needs to care about the cap and unless you can credibly say that a team can win paying one player 20% of their cap then it's very unlikely a team would offer that to him even if he were the best player in the league, which he isn't.

Matthews is still going to have to work within the NHL's salary system because that salary system has established that no player is worth torpedoing your team for and Matthews doesn't have the leverage to change that. Either he signs at a rate where he helps the team he's signing with, in which case the Leafs will match, or he's signing at a rate which will hurt the team he's signing with and Matthews doesn't get to decide how teams determine that line.

 

[Bates]

Matthews contract will be very close to what Matthews wants in dollars and years. Nylander's contract will be very close to what the Leaf's want. That's how leverage works.

 

[Kin]

I'm very confident that if Matthews is available on July 1st he will see an offer that makes him the League's highest Cap hit. That's leverage as he Isn't the League's best player.

Well, lucky for me I'm not staking a position on what you are or aren't confident in then.

 

[Bates]

Of course,  around we go. So a simple question, will Matthews or Nylander get the contract they want? Both? One? Or Neither?

I'm very confident that if Matthews is available on July 1st he will see an offer that makes him the League's highest Cap hit. That's leverage as he Isn't the League's best player.

Well, lucky for me I'm not staking a position on what you are or aren't confident in then.

 

[Kin]

Of course,  around we go. So a simple question, will Matthews or Nylander get the contract they want? Both? One? Or Neither?

Personally, I try not to invest too heavily in predicting the future. I don't know what will happen with either guy. My guess is both will get something less than what they'd ideally like but way, way more than the Leafs would choose to give them.

Edit: Or, to be more accurate to my original point, what both guys want will ultimately be shaped by the salary conditions in the league and both of them signing with the Leafs is conditional on the Leafs giving them an offer they "want" to sign.

 

[Kin]

Also, I kind of feel like we should reframe some of the general thoughts here. Presenting Nylander's reported 8+ ask as what he "wants" and the Leafs reported 6+ offer as what they "want" seems to be missing the larger point. Nylander, I'm sure, would like more than 8 million per and the Leafs could afford it. However the reality of the cap and the NHL's salary structure probably make 8 or so the upper level of what Nylander or his reps think is a good negotiating point.

By contrast, if the Leafs had their druthers I'm sure they'd like to pay Nylander the minimum and we've seen in hockey and in other sports that if teams(and we should probably come up for a better word than that for billion dollar entertainment conglomerates) can unilaterally dictate a salary for players they tend to give them the least they're allowed to or not much above that. Look at Josh Donaldson's career salary history if you ever think a team will pay a guy league-value if they don't have to.

The 6 offer and the 8 ask are, for the time being, just negotiating positions staked out by two interested parties that in theory are working towards the same goal of a long term contract. They've already been shaped far more by outside forces than either of their respective desires.

 

[ZBBM]

W/o getting into what constitutes "leverage" I just wanted to add a point I haven't seen discussed (at least not lately?) in this thread.  Which is, one other factor that puts a bit more pressure on Dubas to retain Nylander is that he no doubt pitched his ability to sign all 3 to Tavares.  For all the talk about "Dubas has to win this" there is the countervailing promise of "we can and we will" to not just the press but to Tavares personally.  I'm not claiming it's a big deal but I imagine it plays into Dubas's thinking, especially as this drags on.

 

[Kin]

W/o getting into what constitutes "leverage" I just wanted to add a point I haven't seen discussed (at least not lately?) in this thread.  Which is, one other factor that puts a bit more pressure on Dubas to retain Nylander is that he no doubt pitched his ability to sign all 3 to Tavares.  For all the talk about "Dubas has to win this" there is the countervailing promise of "we can and we will" to not just the press but to Tavares personally.  I'm not claiming it's a big deal but I imagine it plays into Dubas's thinking, especially as this drags on.

More than Tavares, I think it'll impact both of the other RFA negotiations as well.

 

[ZBBM]

W/o getting into what constitutes "leverage" I just wanted to add a point I haven't seen discussed (at least not lately?) in this thread.  Which is, one other factor that puts a bit more pressure on Dubas to retain Nylander is that he no doubt pitched his ability to sign all 3 to Tavares.  For all the talk about "Dubas has to win this" there is the countervailing promise of "we can and we will" to not just the press but to Tavares personally.  I'm not claiming it's a big deal but I imagine it plays into Dubas's thinking, especially as this drags on.

More than Tavares, I think it'll impact both of the other RFA negotiations as well.

Yeah, could be.  I wonder if Dubas wishes he hadn't said that (in public).

 

[Frank E]

W/o getting into what constitutes "leverage" I just wanted to add a point I haven't seen discussed (at least not lately?) in this thread.  Which is, one other factor that puts a bit more pressure on Dubas to retain Nylander is that he no doubt pitched his ability to sign all 3 to Tavares.  For all the talk about "Dubas has to win this" there is the countervailing promise of "we can and we will" to not just the press but to Tavares personally.  I'm not claiming it's a big deal but I imagine it plays into Dubas's thinking, especially as this drags on.

More than Tavares, I think it'll impact both of the other RFA negotiations as well.

Yeah, I agree.  This is what I've been stressing. 

 

[herman]

What people might have forgotten was that Dubas also said repeatedly that this process would take a long time.

 

[Kin]

W/o getting into what constitutes "leverage" I just wanted to add a point I haven't seen discussed (at least not lately?) in this thread.  Which is, one other factor that puts a bit more pressure on Dubas to retain Nylander is that he no doubt pitched his ability to sign all 3 to Tavares.  For all the talk about "Dubas has to win this" there is the countervailing promise of "we can and we will" to not just the press but to Tavares personally.  I'm not claiming it's a big deal but I imagine it plays into Dubas's thinking, especially as this drags on.

More than Tavares, I think it'll impact both of the other RFA negotiations as well.

Yeah, could be.  I wonder if Dubas wishes he hadn't said that (in public).

I don't think it matters much what he says when his actions are ultimately seen. I don't know to what extent Nylander is close with Marner or Matthews but I think it only stands to reason that if we don't see Nylander in a Leafs uniform by December 1st then Marner and Matthews are going to get wised up to the realities of the business they're in toot sweet.

 

[herman]

W/o getting into what constitutes "leverage" I just wanted to add a point I haven't seen discussed (at least not lately?) in this thread.  Which is, one other factor that puts a bit more pressure on Dubas to retain Nylander is that he no doubt pitched his ability to sign all 3 to Tavares.  For all the talk about "Dubas has to win this" there is the countervailing promise of "we can and we will" to not just the press but to Tavares personally.  I'm not claiming it's a big deal but I imagine it plays into Dubas's thinking, especially as this drags on.

More than Tavares, I think it'll impact both of the other RFA negotiations as well.

Yeah, could be.  I wonder if Dubas wishes he hadn't said that (in public).

I don't think it matters much what he says when his actions are ultimately seen. I don't know to what extent Nylander is close with Marner or Matthews but I think it only stands to reason that if we don't see Nylander in a Leafs uniform by December 1st then Marner and Matthews are going to get wised up to the realities of the business they're in toot sweet.

omg who are you and what have you done with Nik?!

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/TheAthleticTO/status/1057962205096935429

Can someone with good Photoshop skills make me a Frogger game where Marner picks his way through the neutral zone of bodies flying by and has to make a reverse seam pass through 5 five-holes to the 4th trailing player for a tap in?

 

[Kin]

omg who are you and what have you done with Nik?!

Nik reads a lot of Elmore Leonard.

 

[Frank E]

*snip

Well, I'm not a subscriber, so I didn't read it.

But I think it might be a little premature to use wording like "demise is greatly exaggerated" when it comes to the Leafs cap situation given even Mr. Mirtle doesn't know what MNM are going to sign for, never mind replacing/re-signing Gardiner.

I can do math, and it sure doesn't look very pretty even in fairly conservative scenarios.

 

[Kin]

Well, I'm not a subscriber, so I didn't read it.

Yeah, can I throw out a suggestion here? People want to link to Athletic ads and, you know, fine but could they be limited to URLs? Because the giant photo-y tweet links feel a lot like ads.