Contracts for the Big-3

[herman]

Well, I'm not a subscriber, so I didn't read it.

Yeah, can I throw out a suggestion here? People want to link to Athletic ads and, you know, fine but could they be limited to URLs? Because the giant photo-y tweet links feel a lot like ads.

But my Frogger joke...

 

[Zee]

I'm very confident that if Matthews is available on July 1st he will see an offer that makes him the League's highest Cap hit. That's leverage as he Isn't the League's best player. \

To Nik's point though, having Matthews make the highest cap hit in the league vs. paying him 20% of the cap are two very different scenarios.  Right now the highest cap hit in the league is $12.5M, of a $79.5M cap which is 15.7% of the cap. 

If a team offers Matthews the exact % on next year's cap (for argument's sake let's say the cap is at $83), then the cap hit is $13.03M which is the highest cap hit, but still the same % as McDavid -- the Leafs match that.

Would a team offer Matthews 20% of the cap?  Can they actually build a team like that?  20% of 83M would be $16.6M -- I don't think that scenario is very likely. 

Yeah Matthews will get what he wants, but he'll also be realistic..he can get the highest cap hit in the league but still stay within a reasonable salary structure (around 15-16% of the cap hit like McDavid if he so chooses)

 

[Bates]

Your last paragraph shows we are in agreement, Matthews has the leverage and will get what he wants.

I'm very confident that if Matthews is available on July 1st he will see an offer that makes him the League's highest Cap hit. That's leverage as he Isn't the League's best player. \

To Nik's point though, having Matthews make the highest cap hit in the league vs. paying him 20% of the cap are two very different scenarios.  Right now the highest cap hit in the league is $12.5M, of a $79.5M cap which is 15.7% of the cap. 

If a team offers Matthews the exact % on next year's cap (for argument's sake let's say the cap is at $83), then the cap hit is $13.03M which is the highest cap hit, but still the same % as McDavid -- the Leafs match that.

Would a team offer Matthews 20% of the cap?  Can they actually build a team like that?  20% of 83M would be $16.6M -- I don't think that scenario is very likely. 

Yeah Matthews will get what he wants, but he'll also be realistic..he can get the highest cap hit in the league but still stay within a reasonable salary structure (around 15-16% of the cap hit like McDavid if he so chooses)

 

[Kin]

Best of luck, Zee.

 

[Zee]

Your last paragraph shows we are in agreement, Matthews has the leverage and will get what he wants.

I'm very confident that if Matthews is available on July 1st he will see an offer that makes him the League's highest Cap hit. That's leverage as he Isn't the League's best player. \

To Nik's point though, having Matthews make the highest cap hit in the league vs. paying him 20% of the cap are two very different scenarios.  Right now the highest cap hit in the league is $12.5M, of a $79.5M cap which is 15.7% of the cap. 

If a team offers Matthews the exact % on next year's cap (for argument's sake let's say the cap is at $83), then the cap hit is $13.03M which is the highest cap hit, but still the same % as McDavid -- the Leafs match that.

Would a team offer Matthews 20% of the cap?  Can they actually build a team like that?  20% of 83M would be $16.6M -- I don't think that scenario is very likely. 

Yeah Matthews will get what he wants, but he'll also be realistic..he can get the highest cap hit in the league but still stay within a reasonable salary structure (around 15-16% of the cap hit like McDavid if he so chooses)

Maybe, but as Mick Jagger told us, "you can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you'll find, you get what you need"

 

[Bates]

Considering you and Damien Cox might be the only people I read who think Nylander has the leverage advantage in these negotiations yeah it would take a lot of luck to convince me otherwise.

Best of luck, Zee.

 

[Bates]

Leverage is really who can exert force to move the negotiating partner from their stance over to your stance. Clearly Matthews will be able to do that by his skill set and by his ace, the offer sheet. And so far It's pretty clear to most that Nylander has no such weapons. Again Matthews will get what he wants and Nylander will get what he is given.

Your last paragraph shows we are in agreement, Matthews has the leverage and will get what he wants.

I'm very confident that if Matthews is available on July 1st he will see an offer that makes him the League's highest Cap hit. That's leverage as he Isn't the League's best player. \

To Nik's point though, having Matthews make the highest cap hit in the league vs. paying him 20% of the cap are two very different scenarios.  Right now the highest cap hit in the league is $12.5M, of a $79.5M cap which is 15.7% of the cap. 

If a team offers Matthews the exact % on next year's cap (for argument's sake let's say the cap is at $83), then the cap hit is $13.03M which is the highest cap hit, but still the same % as McDavid -- the Leafs match that.

Would a team offer Matthews 20% of the cap?  Can they actually build a team like that?  20% of 83M would be $16.6M -- I don't think that scenario is very likely. 

Yeah Matthews will get what he wants, but he'll also be realistic..he can get the highest cap hit in the league but still stay within a reasonable salary structure (around 15-16% of the cap hit like McDavid if he so chooses)

Maybe, but as Mick Jagger told us, "you can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you'll find, you get what you need"

 

[ZBBM]

Well, I'm not a subscriber, so I didn't read it.

Yeah, can I throw out a suggestion here? People want to link to Athletic ads and, you know, fine but could they be limited to URLs? Because the giant photo-y tweet links feel a lot like ads.

And always, please, add the gist of what the article is saying for those of us outside the paywall.

 

[Kin]

Considering you and Damien Cox might be the only people I read who think Nylander has the leverage advantage in these negotiations yeah it would take a lot of luck to convince me otherwise.

I remain a big believer in your ability to one day grasp the concept of nuance.

 

[Bates]

I guess we could just use your earlier post about asks and offers and once deal is eventually signed we will have a really good idea of who had the leverage. 

Considering you and Damien Cox might be the only people I read who think Nylander has the leverage advantage in these negotiations yeah it would take a lot of luck to convince me otherwise.

I remain a big believer in your ability to one day grasp the concept of nuance.

 

[Kin]

I mean, I'm not holding my breath or anything.

 

[Bates]

That saddens me??  Oh well I guess the satisfaction of your spin will have to be my reward.

I mean, I'm not holding my breath or anything.

 

[Kin]

That saddens me??  Oh well I guess the satisfaction of your spin will have to be my reward.

See, I still don't think you've been able to actually get what I've been saying. Despite the fact that the word seems to get you frothing at the mouth, I don't think of "leverage" as an absolute or as a zero-sum game. Dubas, representing the team, has his. Nylander has his. One doesn't detract from the other and whatever number Nylander signs at isn't a representation of either side having tangibly more. Both parties of capable of acting irrationally, both parties may take deals that aren't as advantageous as they might have gotten in another capacity or under different circumstances.

This is not a matter of absolutes and quantifiable concepts. This is not an adversarial process where one side wins and the other loses. Nylander has already "won" by virtue of being good enough at hockey to make a lot of money at it. All that's being decided is the extent to which he will make a lot of money that the Leafs would prefer not to give him.

Because you still haven't addressed a basic truth. If the Leafs have all of the negotiating power and Nylander none, why are they offering 6? Why not 5? Or 4? Are they bad at math? Just love Nylander's dreamy blue eyes?

No. It's because he's a very good hockey player who they want in the line-up and they're willing to pay a lot of money for it to happen because they know that players like Nylander are hard to find. That is the manifestation of his negotiating power. Whether it results in a 6 or 7 or 8 million dollar deal is fundamentally immaterial to this very simple concept that every one else has managed to grasp.

 

[Bates]

I don't suppose it could also be that the Leafs are reasonable and that's why they aren't offering 5??? Someone's hand is going to be slightly forced into signing a contract between these two parties,
Or one would already be signed. Who has the ability to make their number closer holds the leverage. The rest of your post is fluff that is obvious and no one is aguing. No one can force another to sign a contract but someone will win the details of that contract battle. 

That saddens me??  Oh well I guess the satisfaction of your spin will have to be my reward.

See, I still don't think you've been able to actually get what I've been saying. Despite the fact that the word seems to get you frothing at the mouth, I don't think of "leverage" as an absolute or as a zero-sum game. Dubas, representing the team, has his. Nylander has his. One doesn't detract from the other and whatever number Nylander signs at isn't a representation of either side having tangibly more. Both parties of capable of acting irrationally, both parties may take deals that aren't as advantageous as they might have gotten in another capacity or under different circumstances.

This is not a matter of absolutes and quantifiable concepts. This is not an adversarial process where one side wins and the other loses. Nylander has already "won" by virtue of being good enough at hockey to make a lot of money at it. All that's being decided is the extent to which he will make a lot of money that the Leafs would prefer not to give him.

Because you still haven't addressed a basic truth. If the Leafs have all of the negotiating power and Nylander none, why are they offering 6? Why not 5? Or 4? Are they bad at math? Just love Nylander's dreamy blue eyes?

No. It's because he's a very good hockey player who they want in the line-up and they're willing to pay a lot of money for it to happen because they know that players like Nylander are hard to find. That is the manifestation of his negotiating power. Whether it results in a 6 or 7 or 8 million dollar deal is fundamentally immaterial to this very simple concept that every one else has managed to grasp.

 

[Zee]

I don't suppose it could also be that the Leafs are reasonable and that's why they aren't offering 5??? Someone's hand is going to be slightly forced into signing a contract between these two parties,
Or one would already be signed. Who has the ability to make their number closer holds the leverage. The rest of your post is fluff that is obvious and no one is aguing. No one can force another to sign a contract but someone will win the details of that contract battle. 

That saddens me??  Oh well I guess the satisfaction of your spin will have to be my reward.

See, I still don't think you've been able to actually get what I've been saying. Despite the fact that the word seems to get you frothing at the mouth, I don't think of "leverage" as an absolute or as a zero-sum game. Dubas, representing the team, has his. Nylander has his. One doesn't detract from the other and whatever number Nylander signs at isn't a representation of either side having tangibly more. Both parties of capable of acting irrationally, both parties may take deals that aren't as advantageous as they might have gotten in another capacity or under different circumstances.

This is not a matter of absolutes and quantifiable concepts. This is not an adversarial process where one side wins and the other loses. Nylander has already "won" by virtue of being good enough at hockey to make a lot of money at it. All that's being decided is the extent to which he will make a lot of money that the Leafs would prefer not to give him.

Because you still haven't addressed a basic truth. If the Leafs have all of the negotiating power and Nylander none, why are they offering 6? Why not 5? Or 4? Are they bad at math? Just love Nylander's dreamy blue eyes?

No. It's because he's a very good hockey player who they want in the line-up and they're willing to pay a lot of money for it to happen because they know that players like Nylander are hard to find. That is the manifestation of his negotiating power. Whether it results in a 6 or 7 or 8 million dollar deal is fundamentally immaterial to this very simple concept that every one else has managed to grasp.

Bates why are you the only guy who replies to messages with the quotes on the bottom?  It's difficult to follow when you post.

 

[Bates]

As I have written before That's just how it happens on my tablet??? Does it show up weird? I guess I could just move curser to bottom??

I don't suppose it could also be that the Leafs are reasonable and that's why they aren't offering 5??? Someone's hand is going to be slightly forced into signing a contract between these two parties,
Or one would already be signed. Who has the ability to make their number closer holds the leverage. The rest of your post is fluff that is obvious and no one is aguing. No one can force another to sign a contract but someone will win the details of that contract battle. 

That saddens me??  Oh well I guess the satisfaction of your spin will have to be my reward.

See, I still don't think you've been able to actually get what I've been saying. Despite the fact that the word seems to get you frothing at the mouth, I don't think of "leverage" as an absolute or as a zero-sum game. Dubas, representing the team, has his. Nylander has his. One doesn't detract from the other and whatever number Nylander signs at isn't a representation of either side having tangibly more. Both parties of capable of acting irrationally, both parties may take deals that aren't as advantageous as they might have gotten in another capacity or under different circumstances.

This is not a matter of absolutes and quantifiable concepts. This is not an adversarial process where one side wins and the other loses. Nylander has already "won" by virtue of being good enough at hockey to make a lot of money at it. All that's being decided is the extent to which he will make a lot of money that the Leafs would prefer not to give him.

Because you still haven't addressed a basic truth. If the Leafs have all of the negotiating power and Nylander none, why are they offering 6? Why not 5? Or 4? Are they bad at math? Just love Nylander's dreamy blue eyes?

No. It's because he's a very good hockey player who they want in the line-up and they're willing to pay a lot of money for it to happen because they know that players like Nylander are hard to find. That is the manifestation of his negotiating power. Whether it results in a 6 or 7 or 8 million dollar deal is fundamentally immaterial to this very simple concept that every one else has managed to grasp.

Bates why are you the only guy who replies to messages with the quotes on the bottom?  It's difficult to follow when you post.

 

[Kin]

Who has the ability to make their number closer holds the leverage.

See, again, it doesn't seem like you understand some basic math here. If the Leafs are at 6 and Nylander's at 8(although, again, these are just reports and we don't know the actual numbers so despite your wanting to crown yourself king of a very sad molehill, there will never be a scorecard here) then Nylander doesn't have to get them to 7.1 for his negotiations to be financially worth it to him. He only has to get to roughly 6.4 for his sitting out until December to ultimately make him more money, even with the missed salary, over the length of the deal. His negotiating position only has to net him an ultimately more lucrative deal than he otherwise would have gotten at the start of the season for it to be smart tactically.

Because the guys Nylander is paying to negotiate this contract for him? They do understand nuance. They're obviously banking that the further they go, the better they ultimately do. We will never know if that's true or not. They won't release transcripts of the negotiations.

But, you know, say leverage five or six more times if it makes you feel better.

 

[Bates]

I don't suppose it could also be that the Leafs are reasonable and that's why they aren't offering 5??? Someone's hand is going to be slightly forced into signing a contract between these two parties,
Or one would already be signed. Who has the ability to make their number closer holds the leverage. The rest of your post is fluff that is obvious and no one is aguing. No one can force another to sign a contract but someone will win the details of that contract battle. 

That saddens me??  Oh well I guess the satisfaction of your spin will have to be my reward.

See, I still don't think you've been able to actually get what I've been saying. Despite the fact that the word seems to get you frothing at the mouth, I don't think of "leverage" as an absolute or as a zero-sum game. Dubas, representing the team, has his. Nylander has his. One doesn't detract from the other and whatever number Nylander signs at isn't a representation of either side having tangibly more. Both parties of capable of acting irrationally, both parties may take deals that aren't as advantageous as they might have gotten in another capacity or under different circumstances.

This is not a matter of absolutes and quantifiable concepts. This is not an adversarial process where one side wins and the other loses. Nylander has already "won" by virtue of being good enough at hockey to make a lot of money at it. All that's being decided is the extent to which he will make a lot of money that the Leafs would prefer not to give him.

Because you still haven't addressed a basic truth. If the Leafs have all of the negotiating power and Nylander none, why are they offering 6? Why not 5? Or 4? Are they bad at math? Just love Nylander's dreamy blue eyes?

No. It's because he's a very good hockey player who they want in the line-up and they're willing to pay a lot of money for it to happen because they know that players like Nylander are hard to find. That is the manifestation of his negotiating power. Whether it results in a 6 or 7 or 8 million dollar deal is fundamentally immaterial to this very simple concept that every one else has managed to grasp.

Bates why are you the only guy who replies to messages with the quotes on the bottom?  It's difficult to follow when you post.

Is this better?

 

[Zee]

As I have written before That's just how it happens on my tablet??? Does it show up weird? I guess I could just move curser to bottom??

I don't suppose it could also be that the Leafs are reasonable and that's why they aren't offering 5??? Someone's hand is going to be slightly forced into signing a contract between these two parties,
Or one would already be signed. Who has the ability to make their number closer holds the leverage. The rest of your post is fluff that is obvious and no one is aguing. No one can force another to sign a contract but someone will win the details of that contract battle. 

That saddens me??  Oh well I guess the satisfaction of your spin will have to be my reward.

See, I still don't think you've been able to actually get what I've been saying. Despite the fact that the word seems to get you frothing at the mouth, I don't think of "leverage" as an absolute or as a zero-sum game. Dubas, representing the team, has his. Nylander has his. One doesn't detract from the other and whatever number Nylander signs at isn't a representation of either side having tangibly more. Both parties of capable of acting irrationally, both parties may take deals that aren't as advantageous as they might have gotten in another capacity or under different circumstances.

This is not a matter of absolutes and quantifiable concepts. This is not an adversarial process where one side wins and the other loses. Nylander has already "won" by virtue of being good enough at hockey to make a lot of money at it. All that's being decided is the extent to which he will make a lot of money that the Leafs would prefer not to give him.

Because you still haven't addressed a basic truth. If the Leafs have all of the negotiating power and Nylander none, why are they offering 6? Why not 5? Or 4? Are they bad at math? Just love Nylander's dreamy blue eyes?

No. It's because he's a very good hockey player who they want in the line-up and they're willing to pay a lot of money for it to happen because they know that players like Nylander are hard to find. That is the manifestation of his negotiating power. Whether it results in a 6 or 7 or 8 million dollar deal is fundamentally immaterial to this very simple concept that every one else has managed to grasp.

Bates why are you the only guy who replies to messages with the quotes on the bottom?  It's difficult to follow when you post.

It's extremely difficult to follow if you come into a thread a few hours later and try to read through the thread in order of quoted messages and replies.  When everyone else's messages appear on the bottom after a quoted message, and yours appear at the top before a quoted message, it becomes difficult to read.

 

[Zee]

I don't suppose it could also be that the Leafs are reasonable and that's why they aren't offering 5??? Someone's hand is going to be slightly forced into signing a contract between these two parties,
Or one would already be signed. Who has the ability to make their number closer holds the leverage. The rest of your post is fluff that is obvious and no one is aguing. No one can force another to sign a contract but someone will win the details of that contract battle. 

That saddens me??  Oh well I guess the satisfaction of your spin will have to be my reward.

See, I still don't think you've been able to actually get what I've been saying. Despite the fact that the word seems to get you frothing at the mouth, I don't think of "leverage" as an absolute or as a zero-sum game. Dubas, representing the team, has his. Nylander has his. One doesn't detract from the other and whatever number Nylander signs at isn't a representation of either side having tangibly more. Both parties of capable of acting irrationally, both parties may take deals that aren't as advantageous as they might have gotten in another capacity or under different circumstances.

This is not a matter of absolutes and quantifiable concepts. This is not an adversarial process where one side wins and the other loses. Nylander has already "won" by virtue of being good enough at hockey to make a lot of money at it. All that's being decided is the extent to which he will make a lot of money that the Leafs would prefer not to give him.

Because you still haven't addressed a basic truth. If the Leafs have all of the negotiating power and Nylander none, why are they offering 6? Why not 5? Or 4? Are they bad at math? Just love Nylander's dreamy blue eyes?

No. It's because he's a very good hockey player who they want in the line-up and they're willing to pay a lot of money for it to happen because they know that players like Nylander are hard to find. That is the manifestation of his negotiating power. Whether it results in a 6 or 7 or 8 million dollar deal is fundamentally immaterial to this very simple concept that every one else has managed to grasp.

Bates why are you the only guy who replies to messages with the quotes on the bottom?  It's difficult to follow when you post.

Is this better?

8) 8) 8)