Contracts for the Big-3

[cabber24]

No one else excited by the Babs quote? To me, it holds more weight than all the media speculation put together. I am a lot more optimistic about Nylander staying put after his quote.

I don't read too much into Babcock's "they will be here" line.  He's known as trying to always be positive and optimistic so I think it's just Babs trying to say he's confident Nylander will be back without actually giving away behind the scenes knowledge that a deal is imminent.  I'm sure Babcock isn't involved in the day to day negotiations, he just has a general sense from management if they think things are going well.

I am sure he knows exactly what's going on and for him to say that is exciting.

 

[cabber24]

https://twitter.com/MSavvy91/status/1065838769465643008

More noise, amount changes with the term. This doesn't make any sense what so ever.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

No one else excited by the Babs quote? To me, it holds more weight than all the media speculation put together. I am a lot more optimistic about Nylander staying put after his quote.

I don't read too much into Babcock's "they will be here" line.  He's known as trying to always be positive and optimistic so I think it's just Babs trying to say he's confident Nylander will be back without actually giving away behind the scenes knowledge that a deal is imminent.  I'm sure Babcock isn't involved in the day to day negotiations, he just has a general sense from management if they think things are going well.

I am sure he knows exactly what's going on and for him to say that is exciting.

What if he's talking about Pesce?

 

[Kin]

I figured that Babcock's remarks were more about Matthews than Nylander. People may be getting hung up on Babcock using the plural "they" but that's probably because he didn't want to single out Matthews as being the cure for what ails the team.

Beyond that, I don't put much more stock into it than "we can and we will".

 

[Zee]

I know we've always said the Leafs wouldn't do a 5 year deal with Nylander as it walks him right to UFA, but what if that's exactly what's going to happen given the number of $6.9M floated by Marc Savard last night.

Patrick Kane did a similar thing coming out of his ELC contract, he signed a 5 year, $6.3M cap hit (which was 11% of the cap at the time).  Nylander signing at that number would be 8.7% of the cap, and he has the luxury of holding the UFA hammer over the Leafs head leading into his next contract.  He either re-ups with the Leafs before the end of year 5 or he walks for huge money.  Gives both parties flexibility, and maybe he re-ups like Kane did before his second contract was up.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I know we've always said the Leafs wouldn't do a 5 year deal with Nylander as it walks him right to UFA, but what if that's exactly what's going to happen given the number of $6.9M floated by Marc Savard last night.

Patrick Kane did a similar thing coming out of his ELC contract, he signed a 5 year, $6.3M cap hit (which was 11% of the cap at the time).  Nylander signing at that number would be 8.7% of the cap, and he has the luxury of holding the UFA hammer over the Leafs head leading into his next contract.  He either re-ups with the Leafs before the end of year 5 or he walks for huge money.  Gives both parties flexibility, and maybe he re-ups like Kane did before his second contract was up.

We talked about this in the context of Matthews last month, but yeah a 5 year deal really wouldn't be the end of the world, and it's actually a lot more common than you'd think. Kane, Toews, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, Stamkos, Getzlaf, and Perry all signed 5-year deals after their ELC. And of course all of them re-signed with their clubs after that too (most of them pretty early).

 

[Kin]

I don't know who just dismissed the idea of a five year second contract but they're not really that rare. In addition to Kane and Toews you have guys like Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos who all signed 5 year second deals. Then you have guys like Couture and Rielly as well.

 

[Zee]

I know we've always said the Leafs wouldn't do a 5 year deal with Nylander as it walks him right to UFA, but what if that's exactly what's going to happen given the number of $6.9M floated by Marc Savard last night.

Patrick Kane did a similar thing coming out of his ELC contract, he signed a 5 year, $6.3M cap hit (which was 11% of the cap at the time).  Nylander signing at that number would be 8.7% of the cap, and he has the luxury of holding the UFA hammer over the Leafs head leading into his next contract.  He either re-ups with the Leafs before the end of year 5 or he walks for huge money.  Gives both parties flexibility, and maybe he re-ups like Kane did before his second contract was up.

We talked about this in the context of Matthews last month, but yeah a 5 year deal really wouldn't be the end of the world, and it's actually a lot more common than you'd think. Kane, Toews, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, Stamkos, Getzlaf, and Perry all signed 5-year deals after their ELC. And of course all of them re-signed with their clubs after that too (most of them pretty early).

Yeah, if Savard's $6.9M number is to be believed, I would think it has to be minimum 5 years as it's too high for your classic 3 year bridge, and Nylander's agent would probably push for 5 as opposed to 4 as it gives him way more leverage on contract 3.  I'm sure everyone could live with that solution.

 

[Kin]

We talked about this in the context of Matthews last month, but yeah a 5 year deal really wouldn't be the end of the world, and it's actually a lot more common than you'd think.

Apologies CtB as what I'm about to say doesn't apply to you but your post does raise the question, isn't the idea that a 5 year deal is bad or worse than an 8 year deal only true if you're of the opinion that there's no question that Nylander's play will not only justify what he might ask for but will comfortably exceed it? Because if he's not a 7 or 8 million dollar player but that's what he's asking for, wouldn't you rather overpay a guy for 5 years as opposed to 8?

Signing a shorter second deal exposes the team to a big 3rd contract sooner, sure, but it also mitigates the risk of signing Nylander to a contract he can't live up to.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Apologies CtB as what I'm about to say doesn't apply to you but your post does raise the question, isn't the idea that a 5 year deal is bad or worse than an 8 year deal only true if you're of the opinion that there's no question that Nylander's play will not only justify what he might ask for but will comfortably exceed it? Because if he's not a 7 or 8 million dollar player but that's what he's asking for, wouldn't you rather overpay a guy for 5 years as opposed to 8?

Signing a shorter second deal exposes the team to a big 3rd contract sooner, sure, but it also mitigates the risk of signing Nylander to a contract he can't live up to.

I don't think that's really the common issue with a 5-year deal. The biggest complaint about that option (or a 4-year deal) is that it ends with Nylander being in a position with all the power (after 5 he's a UFA, after 4 he's one year away from that with arbitration rights) and there's the fear that it could lead to him walking as a free agent.

 

[Kin]

I don't think that's really the common issue with a 5-year deal. The biggest complaint about that option (or a 4-year deal) is that it ends with Nylander being in a position with all the power (after 5 he's a UFA, after 4 he's one year away from that with arbitration rights) and there's the fear that it could lead to him walking as a free agent.

Right but that's true of an 8 year deal too, just delayed. What I'm saying though is that Nylander only has a ton of power in that situation if his play over the five years leaves the Leafs really eager to re-sign him. If Nylander's play doesn't justify his deal, as some people have contended it wouldn't if he got what he was asking for, you're not going to be overly upset if he walks when it's done.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Right but that's true of an 8 year deal too, just delayed. What I'm saying though is that Nylander only has a ton of power in that situation if his play over the five years leaves the Leafs really eager to re-sign him. If Nylander's play doesn't justify his deal, as some people have contended it wouldn't if he got what he was asking for, you're not going to be overly upset if he walks when it's done.

I don't really get the feeling that most people don't think Nylander's play wouldn't justify a $7mil+ AAV, especially in the 2nd half of a long-term deal. They just don't want to give it to him. Cause winning.

 

[Kin]

I don't really get the feeling that most people don't think Nylander's play wouldn't justify a $7mil+ AAV, especially in the 2nd half of a long-term deal. They just don't want to give it to him. Cause winning.

No, that's probably right and sort of my point. In a roundabout way I'm pointing out that the issue isn't really whether or not Nylander will be worth what he's asking for.

 

[Bullfrog]

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Me: I've gotta stop believing randos on twitter who say that Nylander is signing.

Also me: He's signing.

https://twitter.com/rlacey2571/status/1065981897094955008

 

[Kin]

Luckily Bob McKenzie just threw some cold water on the situation.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I know we've always said the Leafs wouldn't do a 5 year deal with Nylander as it walks him right to UFA, but what if that's exactly what's going to happen given the number of $6.9M floated by Marc Savard last night.

Patrick Kane did a similar thing coming out of his ELC contract, he signed a 5 year, $6.3M cap hit (which was 11% of the cap at the time).  Nylander signing at that number would be 8.7% of the cap, and he has the luxury of holding the UFA hammer over the Leafs head leading into his next contract.  He either re-ups with the Leafs before the end of year 5 or he walks for huge money.  Gives both parties flexibility, and maybe he re-ups like Kane did before his second contract was up.

We talked about this in the context of Matthews last month, but yeah a 5 year deal really wouldn't be the end of the world, and it's actually a lot more common than you'd think. Kane, Toews, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, Stamkos, Getzlaf, and Perry all signed 5-year deals after their ELC. And of course all of them re-signed with their clubs after that too (most of them pretty early).

The difference being, all of those guys were 4 years away from UFA.  So those 5 year deals bought one UFA year. 

Since Nylander burned a year of his ELC in 2015-2016 without accruing a year towards UFA status, he ends up 5 years from UFA.  Hence, I wouldn't expect a 5 yr deal in this case.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The difference being, all of those guys were 4 years away from UFA.  So those 5 year deals bought one UFA year. 

Since Nylander burned a year of his ELC in 2015-2016 without accruing a year towards UFA status, he ends up 5 years from UFA.  Hence, I wouldn't expect a 5 yr deal in this case.

True, I didn't adjust that from when it was originally discussed regarding Matthews.

But is buying up one single UFA year really that much different than buying up none? I mean I don't really expect a 5-year deal, but if for whatever reason that's what Nylander wants and they can get it for a good rate I just don't think the fear of him walking after should prevent the Leafs from signing it. We've seen it time and time again, as long as a team is successful odds are your star players will always re-sign.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Luckily Bob McKenzie just threw some cold water on the situation.

Bob's giant twitter thread where at the end of day nothing new was said:

Lots of William Nylander buzz, rumours abound, so let?s try to get a sense of where things may be at and where they go and how quickly it does or doesn?t happen...

First off, as of this precise moment in time, I don?t believe there?s an agreement in place or an announcement is pending. I hate reporting that because one phone call at any time after I post this tweet could change everything. So, yeah, at the risk of this becoming dated...

It?s understandable the buzz and rumours and will pick up. We?re one week and one day away from the 5 p.m. ET Dec. 1 deadline. That alone ratchets it up. Mike Babcock?s comments yesterday were interpreted by some the deal is imminent. There was the $6.9M rumour tweet out there...

...and then the CBJ fan who got his pic taken with Kyle Dubas who suggested a 5 p.m. update is in the works, which I don?t believe is the case at all but see the earlier tweet on how quickly things can change/become dated...

Now that we?re close(r) to the end of the process, I really wonder how much more negotiating will actually take place. I get the feeling the Nylander camp has let TOR know in no uncertain terms where they stand and I?d bet vice versa is true as well...

Conventional wisdom is that the logjam here will be broken by a bridge deal and common sense suggests that?s the way to go. Two years if you?re Nylander; three years if you?re the Leafs. But I certainly don?t think the longer-term (six years) is out of the question at this point.

For all the talk of a $6.9M AAV on a long-term deal, remember what @CapFriendly and we were talking about last week. TOR could do a long-term deal for $7M across the board and have a much bigger cap hit this year and much lesser cap hit in the so-called ?out years.?

The key thing for TOR, whether it?s a long-term deal or a shorter term deal, is to keep the actual salary relatively even over the course of the contract. That?s how they accrue the cap hit benefit. Big signing bonuses would negate the cap hit benefit, too.

So I have to go on @LeafsLunch1050 now, so I?ll finish with this: If this deal gets done, I could see it being a three-year deal that pays out $5M or slightly more than per year that over the term. If it?s a six-year deal, I could see it being high 6?s, like Pastrnak, maybe 7...

...if the Leafs are able to take full advantage of the CBA rule on cap hits/AAV?s for late-signing RFAs. For more information on that, go to @CapFriendly. They?ll explain it all.

In conclusion, maybe it gets done here in short order; maybe we?re back here a week today still talking about. That?s the reality of the current situation. People hate to hear that; they expect unequivocals. Doesn?t work that way.

It is a little interesting though that by waiting this long Nylander may have cost himself a heavy signing bonus deal, or a heavily front loaded deal. Like Bob says, for the Leafs to get the biggest cap benefit via the late signing the dollars have to be pretty even throughout the deal (don't ask me to explain this, I can't).

 

[Zee]

Me: I've gotta stop believing randos on twitter who say that Nylander is signing.

Also me: He's signing.

https://twitter.com/rlacey2571/status/1065981897094955008

What's not to believe?  Dubas just gives some random dude off the street a hot tip that news is coming at 5pm?  I mean why wouldn't he do that?