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Horachek's impact on the team

I wonder how much worse off the leafs would be if Burke was still here.

Thing is, I bet you he still would have signed Clarkson.
 
Joe S. said:
Thing is, I bet you he still would have signed Clarkson.

I was going to argue with you here until I remembered that the Flames gave Deryk Engelland $8.7mil over 3 years. The most I can say is that he probably wouldn't have structured it to be buy-out proof.
 
War-on-ice.com is nice because you can use date ranges.

So far under Horachek, Leafs have a CF% of 50%.  That's 18th in the league over that time period.  Prior to that their CF% was 44.6% and was 28th in the league.

Their on-ice SH% has cratered so far under Horachek to 3.1%, dead-last in the league since Horachek took over.  Their on-ice SV% isn't much better, at 28th in the league over that stretch at .898.

Under Carlyle the Leafs' on-ice SH% was first in the league at 9.5% and their on-ice SV% was 19th at .921.

Also notable is so far under Horachek the Leafs are starting getting 51.4% offensive zone starts compared to 41.6% under Carlyle.

I'm not saying they're going to run the table, but the indications are that if they continue to play this way the team should start winning more games.  If that happens, sorry tankers.

So basically they improved in almost every area game-play wise but then saw their SH% & SV% go way down.  Illuminati confirmed.
 
Even with those numbers, I'm not sure the Leafs are really going to much more than a ~.500 team the rest of the way - especially if/when they move a few pieces out. They're not likely to sink much in the standing from where they are now, but I don't see them climbing much, either.
 
bustaheims said:
Even with those numbers, I'm not sure the Leafs are really going to much more than a ~.500 team the rest of the way - especially if/when they move a few pieces out. They're not likely to sink much in the standing from where they are now, but I don't see them climbing much, either.

I see a reversal ending to this season compaired to the past two years. They will climb back up at some point. Just not enough for a playoff spot.
 
Andy007 said:
RedLeaf said:
I hope I'm wrong about this, but I don't see this squad as one that has the ability to consistantly maintain above average offense and defense at the same time. At the end of the day, all these good looking analtical numbers won't matter if the Leafs can't outscore their opponents on a regular basis. That may ultimately be the reason Carlyle chose offense, and ran with it.

Give them time. If they keep outshooting their opponents and improving on their possession numbers I think you'll eventually start to see some consistent offensive output. That's what analytical numbers are for; they project what should ultimately start to happen.

Still waiting for the offence to kick in. ???
 
Not sure what you guys think of Feschuk, but I think this article makes a good point: http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2015/02/01/horachek-blueprint-erases-maple-leafs-speed-edge-feschuk.html

He argues that the Leafs main strength based on the Leafs' natural talent (forwards' speed) is useless in a system based on possession defense. 

And I can see his point...maybe these players just aren't suited to an 'LA Kings' style of of play.  Maybe all the Leafs are good for is run-and-gun and that's how they win their games. 

It's like trying to teach cats to herd sheep.  It's just not in their nature.  Like the Leafs, cats are all run-and-gun offense meant to bag that score.  Like the Kings, dogs are for defense and possession.
 
regardless, Horacheck will not revert to a run and gun system, this guys Guru was Barry Trotz.
So it is going to be hockey in a defensive vacuum until at least a new coach is hired and a new GM is in place. I have the feeling this may be the same man.
If the leafs buy in and Hitchcock is correct, the Leafs may find their scoring touch to some extent, enough to win some games (dammit). You know the 1-0, 2-1 variety.
Still not sold on Bernier as the future goalie of this team
 
Highlander said:
regardless, Horacheck will not revert to a run and gun system, this guys Guru was Barry Trotz.
So it is going to be hockey in a defensive vacuum until at least a new coach is hired and a new GM is in place. I have the feeling this may be the same man.
If the leafs buy in and Hitchcock is correct, the Leafs may find their scoring touch to some extent, enough to win some games (dammit). You know the 1-0, 2-1 variety.
Still not sold on Bernier as the future goalie of this team

I must to agree with the Bernier part, but my opinion changed after the game against ARI.
 
895 said:
Not sure what you guys think of Feschuk, but I think this article makes a good point: http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2015/02/01/horachek-blueprint-erases-maple-leafs-speed-edge-feschuk.html

He argues that the Leafs main strength based on the Leafs' natural talent (forwards' speed) is useless in a system based on possession defense. 

And I can see his point...maybe these players just aren't suited to an 'LA Kings' style of of play.  Maybe all the Leafs are good for is run-and-gun and that's how they win their games. 

It's like trying to teach cats to herd sheep.  It's just not in their nature.  Like the Leafs, cats are all run-and-gun offense meant to bag that score.  Like the Kings, dogs are for defense and possession.

Feschuk's showing he doesn't want to do any research beyond what he wants to be true.

But they?re not the offensive threat they once were. This party line Horachek keeps spewing ? that the Leafs are getting the same amount of chances that they were playing Carlyle?s way ? sounds like a line he?s hoping to be able to repeat in impending job interviews.

There are independent, objective sites that track scoring chances for and against and which say that the scoring chances for between Carlyle and Horachek have been virtually identical.  These sites (ex: war-on-ice.com) track this data for every game in the league so there should be no concern that there is bias between Carlyle's numbers and Horachek's or anything like that.

They were getting a higher SH% and scoring more goals compared to January so it seems like they were getting more chances. 

But even if they were, it's not like that system was working for the team.
 
They were never a run and gun team either. They were a "pray we don't get scored on 8 times in the 53 minutes we don't have the puck and hope we get a few power plays and lucky breaks" team. They are playing better under Horachek. They're just not getting any bounces. As much as Carlyles style wasn't sustainable, neither is this.

At the end of the dY though, there's no reason to be upset about the team losing. They're not going to make the playoffs anyway. Might as well shoot for the moon at the draft.
 
I've said this a few times already, but, apparently, it needs to be restated - it's much easier to add offence to a solid defensive foundation than it is to do it the other way around. As others have pointed out, while the production has dropped and the character of their offensive play has changed, the calibre hasn't really. They're still getting the same number of chances, but, the puck just isn't going in right now. The Leafs had an unsustainably high shooting percentage under Carlyle and, now, they have an unsustainably low one under Horachek. The goals will come, and, if they don't, oh well. It's not like they were gonna win the Cup this season. Less goals = less wins = better draft position. The Leafs are aching for more high-end, homegrown talent, and higher draft picks are the best way to get that. I'll gladly sacrifice a few meaningless wins this season for a team that's building the foundation to hopefully bring home a few championships.
 

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