Horachek's impact on the team

[Highlander]

Busta hits it on the chops, exactly.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Some comments from Anthony Petrielli in his latest Leafs Notebook:

One of the most interesting quotes on the team and their changes came from Ken Hitchcock before the Leafs played in St. Louis. ?Everything I see is Nashville,? Hitchcock said. ?That?s the way Nashville played for years. You can see the implementation of it. I told our coaches you could show Nashville clips from last year, the year before, five years ago, that is the way they are going to play. There is going to be a tight gap. You?re going to have to get the puck behind them because there is not going to be any room in front of them. You can see that.?

Now, many people will see the link to Nashville and think to themselves, ?no wonder they can?t score any more,? but the ?Trotz wants grind it out defensive hockey and his teams can?t score? is a myth. Since the 2005 lockout, this is how Trotz?s teams have ranked in 5v5 goals for: 17th, 3rd, 5th, 22nd, 11th, 12th, 10th, 26th (lockout year), 12th. On a budget team with not many stars, they were hardly unable to score, and in fact were consistently above average (only 3/9 times in the bottom half of even strength scoring).

...

Beyond the fact that they have played a lot on the road and faced some very good teams, there has to be some time allotted for things to sort out. Bruce Boudreau did not save Anaheim in a single day. The Ducks started 3-14 under Boudreau and it took him about 20 games to get their possession game up.

...

In a past Notebook I showed how Horachek is trying to get the team to breakout properly and move out of their zone cleanly. The one thing that is already readily apparent is the team has really cut down the time spent in their own zone, not just in terms of shots against, but in terms of getting cycled to death. Against the Devils, for example, the Leafs had a shift where they made an entire line change while possessing the puck in NJ?s end. Unheard of in the Carlyle era. But where they are really getting hurt is they just won?t go to the dirty areas. There is a lot of perimeter hockey at the moment with shots from poor angles. Here is the shot location chart from the Flyers-Leafs game; the Leafs were a 60% possession team that night, but you see a good amount of shots from the points and boards, and rarely was there traffic.

http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/02/03/leafs-notebook-february-3-2/

Bunch of images/embedded stuff as well that you should open it up to look at.  Plus lots more to read.

 

[slapshot]

Not sure what you guys think of Feschuk, but I think this article makes a good point: http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2015/02/01/horachek-blueprint-erases-maple-leafs-speed-edge-feschuk.html

He argues that the Leafs main strength based on the Leafs' natural talent (forwards' speed) is useless in a system based on possession defense. 

And I can see his point...maybe these players just aren't suited to an 'LA Kings' style of of play.  Maybe all the Leafs are good for is run-and-gun and that's how they win their games. 

It's like trying to teach cats to herd sheep.  It's just not in their nature.  Like the Leafs, cats are all run-and-gun offense meant to bag that score.  Like the Kings, dogs are for defense and possession.

The Leafs could be more like the Black Hawks, except the need a leader like Toews, which don't grow on trees, another top d-man to play alongside Rielly and some true grit guys, which Clarkson was supposed to be.
I think the first shoe that has to drop is unloading Phaneuf and I think that's exactly what the Leafs are trying to do. Trade him off to team needing a d-man, take back another salaried guy in the $4-5 million range (shorter term) who could use a change of scenery.
I'd try flip a second round pick for a late first as part of some deal. I'd love to see the Leafs get another late round pick and grab a guy like Matthew Spencer of Peterborough.
http://www.mynhldraft.com/2015/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Matthew-Spencer
I think that's the kind of player they should be adding to their young d-core. Local boy with some moxy. If they could finish 5th and grab a Dylan Strome and somehow pick up a later round and nab Spencer, that would be a pretty decent draft. Trading Phaneuf or Franson with a later pick might secure a late round first even if the Leafs have to throw in something else.
As for Horachek, I think management wants stricter attention to defence and this is probably a period of seeing who can play some defence while still generating offence (that balance). Unfortunately, it ain't showing much, except for from Rielly. Though I think Kessel and Kadri are trying a bit more.
Maybe a shocker at the end of the season is Dale Hunter becomes coach and Mark GM. Wonder if that's possible. He already showed some interest in an NHL coaching job in Washington, but it was too far from home. Toronto isn't.

 

[slapshot]

regardless, Horacheck will not revert to a run and gun system, this guys Guru was Barry Trotz.
So it is going to be hockey in a defensive vacuum until at least a new coach is hired and a new GM is in place. I have the feeling this may be the same man.
If the leafs buy in and Hitchcock is correct, the Leafs may find their scoring touch to some extent, enough to win some games (dammit). You know the 1-0, 2-1 variety.
Still not sold on Bernier as the future goalie of this team

I must to agree with the Bernier part, but my opinion changed after the game against ARI.

I still like Bernier a lot. Carey Price has some seriously spotty moments with the Habs over the first few seasons. Bernier is only in his second full season. I think his fundamentals for the most part are sound. He will only get better with more experience, and of course, a better team in front of him.

 

[freer]

regardless, Horacheck will not revert to a run and gun system, this guys Guru was Barry Trotz.
So it is going to be hockey in a defensive vacuum until at least a new coach is hired and a new GM is in place. I have the feeling this may be the same man.
If the leafs buy in and Hitchcock is correct, the Leafs may find their scoring touch to some extent, enough to win some games (dammit). You know the 1-0, 2-1 variety.
Still not sold on Bernier as the future goalie of this team

I must to agree with the Bernier part, but my opinion changed after the game against ARI.

I still like Bernier a lot. Carey Price has some seriously spotty moments with the Habs over the first few seasons. Bernier is only in his second full season. I think his fundamentals for the most part are sound. He will only get better with more experience, and of course, a better team in front of him.

He has been mediocre as of late. It is pretty bad when he was place back in the net and I knew they were going to lose.

 

[Boston Leaf]

I still like Bernier a lot. Carey Price has some seriously spotty moments with the Habs over the first few seasons. Bernier is only in his second full season. I think his fundamentals for the most part are sound. He will only get better with more experience, and of course, a better team in front of him.
[/quote]

I'm with this

 

[Bullfrog]

Agreed that there should be more patience with Bernier.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Agreed that there should be more patience with Bernier.

I don't think anyone's saying to give up on him (or at least very few are). The problem is that he's due for a big pay raise this summer and it's basically impossible to figure out what his value is.

 

[Redleaf]

Agreed that there should be more patience with Bernier.

I don't think anyone's saying to give up on him (or at least very few are). The problem is that he's due for a big pay raise this summer and it's basically impossible to figure out what his value is.

His value should be based on his latest season, which bodes well for the Leafs, no?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

So through 12 games now the team's CF under Horachek is 50.2%, their On-ice SH% is 4.1% and their on-ice SV% is .911 (all 5v5 values).  PDO is 95.2.

It can be frustrating - Pittsburgh over that same period has an on-ice SH% of 6.0%, an on-ice SV% of .894 and they are 4-4-3 while the Leafs are 1-10-1.

Key is the team committing to the process even when the results aren't there.

Obviously there's more to the game than just these numbers as well, they're simply helpful indicators of how the team is playing.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Allow me to again pump the tires of my local OHL team's coach, but this gives a good idea of what I hope to see in a future Leafs' team/coach.

While his team hasn't lost in a month and has dropped just one of his last 13 games, Sheldon Keefe refuses to let a steady stream of victories cloud his vision.

To the Hounds bench boss, it's all about the process ? and not necessarily about the result of individual games.

While it's been his approach since arriving here just over two years ago, Keefe huddled with his staff over the summer and put even more emphasis on coaching the process.

That is, seeking constant improvement from his players day-to-day, practice-to-practice, game-to-game, setting a very-high standard and striving to be as close to perfect as humanly possible.

In other words, winning a game but allowing a weaker opponent to out-chance you, isn't acceptable.

Winning a game in which you take a lot of silly penalties isn't sufficient.

Winning, but allowing an inferior opponent to out-work you, isn't good enough.

And getting by, simply because of superior talent, doesn't cut it.

Keefe's overriding goal is to maximize this club's potential.

...

And while Keefe admits this approach can be a little frustrating -- especially when the team is racking up more Ws than you'd find in a box of Alpha-Bits cereal ? it's how he has planned to bring out the most in the Hounds.

?We're not aiming to be good, we're aiming to be great,? Keefe said last Saturday, following his team's 7-1 thrashing of Mississauga here.

He was explaining his pointed criticism of the way in which his club played over the final 40 minutes.

Sure, on paper the 7-1 score looked great.

But look deeper.

After a lightning-quick start, the Hounds let up.

That's doable against a team such as the Steelheads.

Unforgivable -- and maybe fatal in the playoffs -- against a team such as North Bay, Erie, Oshawa or Barrie.

It's all about establishing the proper habits and the 34-year-old Brampton, Ont., native will apparently settle for nothing less.

...

?With the exception of our 4-3 shootout win over North Bay (on Friday night), that's been the only time during this 10-game winning streak we've been moving in the right direction,? he said. ?Of all of the top teams in the league, we have the furthest to go with our habits.?

Asked if that was a function of youth, the coach said no.

?It's a function of our style of play and the players that we have,? he answered.

http://www.saultstar.com/2015/02/04/theres-a-reason-keefe-isnt-always-happy----ruicci-column

There was too often a sense of "the Leafs are winning who cares what it looked like" but over the long haul it's very important to not only win but to do so in a way that is repeatable and sustainable.  Now there are obvious differences in junior to the NHL but the general idea remains the same.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I'd love for him to coach the Marlies.

 

[skrackle]

regardless, Horacheck will not revert to a run and gun system, this guys Guru was Barry Trotz.
So it is going to be hockey in a defensive vacuum until at least a new coach is hired and a new GM is in place. I have the feeling this may be the same man.
If the leafs buy in and Hitchcock is correct, the Leafs may find their scoring touch to some extent, enough to win some games (dammit). You know the 1-0, 2-1 variety.
Still not sold on Bernier as the future goalie of this team

I must to agree with the Bernier part, but my opinion changed after the game against ARI.

I still like Bernier a lot. Carey Price has some seriously spotty moments with the Habs over the first few seasons. Bernier is only in his second full season. I think his fundamentals for the most part are sound. He will only get better with more experience, and of course, a better team in front of him.

Bernier is only a year younger than Carey Price. Price had a few shaky years behind a weak team when he was in his early 20s, but has now established himself along with a pretty good Habs team.

That's not to say Bernier couldn't still be a legitimate no.1 goalie, but I'm not sure the time line works. He hasn't shown enough consistency with play or durability where I'd want to commit to him over the long team when it's pretty clear the Leafs aren't going to be a strong team for some time.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

regardless, Horacheck will not revert to a run and gun system, this guys Guru was Barry Trotz.
So it is going to be hockey in a defensive vacuum until at least a new coach is hired and a new GM is in place. I have the feeling this may be the same man.
If the leafs buy in and Hitchcock is correct, the Leafs may find their scoring touch to some extent, enough to win some games (dammit). You know the 1-0, 2-1 variety.
Still not sold on Bernier as the future goalie of this team

I must to agree with the Bernier part, but my opinion changed after the game against ARI.

I still like Bernier a lot. Carey Price has some seriously spotty moments with the Habs over the first few seasons. Bernier is only in his second full season. I think his fundamentals for the most part are sound. He will only get better with more experience, and of course, a better team in front of him.

Bernier is only a year younger than Carey Price. Price had a few shaky years behind a weak team when he was in his early 20s, but has now established himself along with a pretty good Habs team.

That's not to say Bernier couldn't still be a legitimate no.1 goalie, but I'm not sure the time line works. He hasn't shown enough consistency with play or durability where I'd want to commit to him over the long team when it's pretty clear the Leafs aren't going to be a strong team for some time.

Yeah last season was the first time Bernier made over 22 starts in a season in the league.  Price has made/will make at least 40 starts every season since he was 20 (discounting the lockout season where he made 38, he would have made 40 if it was a full season).

 

[Highlander]

Bernier for a 2nd.  He admited he has to be mentally tougher. My question is when will this happen? 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Everyone on the team has basically improved their underlying numbers, but I think Gardiner might be the most dramatic:

@statssundin

Gardiner under Carlyle: 37 GP, 44.8% CF, 44.7% SCF, 49.3 CF60, 60.8 CA60.

Under Horachek: 14 GP, 57.8% CF, 60.1% SCF, 59.3 CF60, 43.2 CA60

Legend:
CF = Corsi For%
SCF = Scoring Chances For %
CF60 - Corsi For per 60 minutes
CA60 - Corsi Against per 60 minutes

 

[pmrules]

Everyone on the team has basically improved their underlying numbers, but I think Gardiner might be the most dramatic:

@statssundin

Gardiner under Carlyle: 37 GP, 44.8% CF, 44.7% SCF, 49.3 CF60, 60.8 CA60.

Under Horachek: 14 GP, 57.8% CF, 60.1% SCF, 59.3 CF60, 43.2 CA60

Legend:
CF = Corsi For%
SCF = Scoring Chances For %
CF60 - Corsi For per 60 minutes
CA60 - Corsi Against per 60 minutes

Before declaring him fixed, I think we need a lot more information.  TOI?  Pts/GM?  Pts/60?  GF/60?  GA/60?  Dare I say G/A/P/ +/-?  If those all show significant improvement as well...then yes, I can be convinced.  Where do you find these stats with the splits by coach?

That being said, my opinion is I still think he is one of the worst on this team in his own zone on a team full of suspect defenders...especially at critical moments in the game which lead to goals (which of course is not officially defined other than my own opinion of what "critical" is).  I haven't seen a marked improvement under Horachek on his side of the red line.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Everyone on the team has basically improved their underlying numbers, but I think Gardiner might be the most dramatic:

@statssundin

Gardiner under Carlyle: 37 GP, 44.8% CF, 44.7% SCF, 49.3 CF60, 60.8 CA60.

Under Horachek: 14 GP, 57.8% CF, 60.1% SCF, 59.3 CF60, 43.2 CA60

Legend:
CF = Corsi For%
SCF = Scoring Chances For %
CF60 - Corsi For per 60 minutes
CA60 - Corsi Against per 60 minutes

Before declaring him fixed, I think we need a lot more information.  TOI?  Pts/GM?  Pts/60?  GF/60?  GA/60?  Dare I say G/A/P/ +/-?  If those all show significant improvement as well...then yes, I can be convinced.  Where do you find these stats with the splits by coach?

That being said, my opinion is I still think he is one of the worst on this team in his own zone on a team full of suspect defenders...especially at critical moments in the game which lead to goals (which of course is not officially defined other than my own opinion of what "critical" is).  I haven't seen a marked improvement under Horachek on his side of the red line.

war-on-ice.com you can sort by date ranges.

Safe to say we'll have to disagree.  I think him and Rielly are critical to this teams future with their ability to skate the puck out of the zone.

 

[pmrules]

Everyone on the team has basically improved their underlying numbers, but I think Gardiner might be the most dramatic:

@statssundin

Gardiner under Carlyle: 37 GP, 44.8% CF, 44.7% SCF, 49.3 CF60, 60.8 CA60.

Under Horachek: 14 GP, 57.8% CF, 60.1% SCF, 59.3 CF60, 43.2 CA60

Legend:
CF = Corsi For%
SCF = Scoring Chances For %
CF60 - Corsi For per 60 minutes
CA60 - Corsi Against per 60 minutes

Before declaring him fixed, I think we need a lot more information.  TOI?  Pts/GM?  Pts/60?  GF/60?  GA/60?  Dare I say G/A/P/ +/-?  If those all show significant improvement as well...then yes, I can be convinced.  Where do you find these stats with the splits by coach?

That being said, my opinion is I still think he is one of the worst on this team in his own zone on a team full of suspect defenders...especially at critical moments in the game which lead to goals (which of course is not officially defined other than my own opinion of what "critical" is).  I haven't seen a marked improvement under Horachek on his side of the red line.

war-on-ice.com you can sort by date ranges.

Safe to say we'll have to disagree.  I think him and Rielly are critical to this teams future with their ability to skate the puck out of the zone.

I agree with you on that part - he is important in getting the puck out when he has control - he is definitely one of the teams best passers, and I'm not even debating his offensive game (he can take over a game when he has the puck with the best of them).

The times though that he is in his own zone WITHOUT the puck and is actually defending (which is likely most of the time when in your own zone)...that's the part that hasn't improved in my mind - and is really just as important.  Again...no stats...just opinion.

The only saving grace is of course he is in his own zone much less - which your stats prove.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Everyone on the team has basically improved their underlying numbers, but I think Gardiner might be the most dramatic:

@statssundin

Gardiner under Carlyle: 37 GP, 44.8% CF, 44.7% SCF, 49.3 CF60, 60.8 CA60.

Under Horachek: 14 GP, 57.8% CF, 60.1% SCF, 59.3 CF60, 43.2 CA60

Legend:
CF = Corsi For%
SCF = Scoring Chances For %
CF60 - Corsi For per 60 minutes
CA60 - Corsi Against per 60 minutes

Before declaring him fixed, I think we need a lot more information.  TOI?  Pts/GM?  Pts/60?  GF/60?  GA/60?  Dare I say G/A/P/ +/-?  If those all show significant improvement as well...then yes, I can be convinced.  Where do you find these stats with the splits by coach?

That being said, my opinion is I still think he is one of the worst on this team in his own zone on a team full of suspect defenders...especially at critical moments in the game which lead to goals (which of course is not officially defined other than my own opinion of what "critical" is).  I haven't seen a marked improvement under Horachek on his side of the red line.

war-on-ice.com you can sort by date ranges.

Safe to say we'll have to disagree.  I think him and Rielly are critical to this teams future with their ability to skate the puck out of the zone.

I agree with you on that part - he is important in getting the puck out when he has control - he is definitely one of the teams best passers, and I'm not even debating his offensive game (he can take over a game when he has the puck with the best of them).

The times though that he is in his own zone WITHOUT the puck and is actually defending (which is likely most of the time when in your own zone)...that's the part that hasn't improved in my mind - and is really just as important.  Again...no stats...just opinion.

The only saving grace is of course he is in his own zone much less - which your stats prove.

You may be right, although I don't think he was significantly worse other than his rough start to the season.  He didn't look right for maybe the first couple months of the season, but at the same time I felt like that was true for the D as a whole, team-wide.  The team spent so much time in its own end that everyone was looking poor at points.

I agree that his strong point is not in being a shutdown D in his own end, but like you said, his strength is in helping the team spend less time in it.  I think that over the long haul that will end up being as, or more, important.