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Horvat to NYI

Nik said:
I suppose to some extent the calculation then becomes: what's the benefit in holding on to see if you possibly get a better return a few weeks from now vs. doing everything you can to maximize your chances in the Bedard sweepstakes.
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I guess that's fair - though, I also wonder how much Horvat changes things there now that his shooting percentage has started to regress a little and with the teams ahead of them in the Tankathon being so awful. Waiting probably doesn't change much in regards to the return or their lottery odds, but it would have improved the optics.
 
bustaheims said:
Nik said:
I suppose to some extent the calculation then becomes: what's the benefit in holding on to see if you possibly get a better return a few weeks from now vs. doing everything you can to maximize your chances in the Bedard sweepstakes.
Click to expand...

I guess that's fair - though, I also wonder how much Horvat changes things there now that his shooting percentage has started to regress a little and with the teams ahead of them in the Tankathon being so awful. Waiting probably doesn't change much in regards to the return or their lottery odds, but it would have improved the optics.
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But that's the double edged sword. Trading Horvat doesn't just remove him from the lineup it also demoralizes the guys left behind. Well, it would provided there was much in the way of morale left in the Canucks dressing room.

Still, it's a solid adherence to the tanking principle.
 
Nik said:
bustaheims said:
Nik said:
I suppose to some extent the calculation then becomes: what's the benefit in holding on to see if you possibly get a better return a few weeks from now vs. doing everything you can to maximize your chances in the Bedard sweepstakes.
Click to expand...

I guess that's fair - though, I also wonder how much Horvat changes things there now that his shooting percentage has started to regress a little and with the teams ahead of them in the Tankathon being so awful. Waiting probably doesn't change much in regards to the return or their lottery odds, but it would have improved the optics.
Click to expand...

But that's the double edged sword. Trading Horvat doesn't just remove him from the lineup it also demoralizes the guys left behind. Well, it would provided there was much in the way of morale left in the Canucks dressing room.

Still, it's a solid adherence to the tanking principle.
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NHL teams never tank!
 
Honestly I do feel like that's kind of how deals generally go down. I think the idea that GM's go back and forth with multiple teams "shopping" deals and saying stuff like "this is what Team A is offering can you beat that" doesn't really happen.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Honestly I do feel like that's kind of how deals generally go down. I think the idea that GM's go back and forth with multiple teams "shopping" deals and saying stuff like "this is what Team A is offering can you beat that" doesn't really happen.
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Yeah. Especially trades that aren't just about draft picks. Like I understand why a team being offered a 3rd might shop it around to see if they can get something objectively better like a 2nd but when it involves multiple prospects then shopping it around would involve trying to weigh differing scouts opinions on what could be very different packages and if you've got an offer on the table you already like(and have potentially already scouted) opening it up to other teams in the hopes they might offer prospects you marginally like more seems not all that important.
 
iwas11in67 said:
I'm not too familiar with Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty. What would the Leaf equivalent be?
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Leafs don't really have a comparable for Beauvillier. He's a 25-year old former 28th overall pick who's kinda gone up and down in his career as a middle-6 winger. At this point it's arguable that he's not even really earning his $4.15mil AAV. He's almost an older and more expensive version of Kapanen when the Leafs dealt him away.

Raty was picked 52nd overall in 2021 but many thought he'd go in the 1st round. His progression as a prospect seems to be going fine but the ceiling there isn't exactly high. Some potential as a 2nd line guy but more realistically he's a 3C if all goes well. So probably Roni Hirvonen-ish (picked 59th overall '20) with less pre-draft hype.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Honestly I do feel like that's kind of how deals generally go down. I think the idea that GM's go back and forth with multiple teams "shopping" deals and saying stuff like "this is what Team A is offering can you beat that" doesn't really happen.
Click to expand...

For smaller deals, absolutely, but for larger deals where they?re negotiating with multiple teams (which, from the sounds of things, they were), I have to believe teams typically give the other suitors an opportunity to up their offer if they?re close in value to the one they like. Unless the Nucks were really targeting Raty, I don?t see any reason they wouldn?t have gone to the other teams to say ?we?re close with another team, this is what they?re offering (without naming names). What?s your best offer?? If they?re in serious negotiations with teams, they should have already done their scouting work. It?s not like they?d be starting from scratch.
 
bustaheims said:
For smaller deals, absolutely, but for larger deals where they?re negotiating with multiple teams (which, from the sounds of things, they were), I have to believe teams typically give the other suitors an opportunity to up their offer if they?re close in value to the one they like. Unless the Nucks were really targeting Raty, I don?t see any reason they wouldn?t have gone to the other teams to say ?we?re close with another team, this is what they?re offering (without naming names). What?s your best offer?? If they?re in serious negotiations with teams, they should have already done their scouting work. It?s not like they?d be starting from scratch.
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See I still think it's the other way around. For smaller deals that usually come about through the course of a few texts or e-mails it's easier to bounce offers around multiple deals until someone offers a high enough or multiple draft picks for a GM to pull the trigger.

But big deals like this happen a lot more organically and over multiple days or weeks or even months. If yesterday at the beginning of one of the many, many talks the two had regarding this deal Allvin set this return as his price and after 60 minutes of back and forth Lou eventually decided to meet his demand Allvin can't then just turn around and go "sweet can I put you on hold for 30 minutes while I face time Boston's GM". I'd imagine everyone around the league would agree that that kinda goes against the GM bro-code.

So if a GM out there is upset and thought that he could have beat this offer, instead of leaking that information he should have been more aggressive in his pursuit and not think he could sit on his best offer until 10 minutes prior to the deadline.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Honestly I do feel like that's kind of how deals generally go down. I think the idea that GM's go back and forth with multiple teams "shopping" deals and saying stuff like "this is what Team A is offering can you beat that" doesn't really happen.
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Alan Walsh literally corroborated this.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
iwas11in67 said:
I'm not too familiar with Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty. What would the Leaf equivalent be?
Click to expand...

Leafs don't really have a comparable for Beauvillier. He's a 25-year old former 28th overall pick who's kinda gone up and down in his career as a middle-6 winger. At this point it's arguable that he's not even really earning his $4.15mil AAV. He's almost an older and more expensive version of Kapanen when the Leafs dealt him away.

Raty was picked 52nd overall in 2021 but many thought he'd go in the 1st round. His progression as a prospect seems to be going fine but the ceiling there isn't exactly high. Some potential as a 2nd line guy but more realistically he's a 3C if all goes well. So probably Roni Hirvonen-ish (picked 59th overall '20) with less pre-draft hype.
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Thanks CTB. I read else where that the closest comparitive was Kerfoot and Niemia(SP)
 
iwas11in67 said:
Thanks CTB. I read else where that the closest comparitive was Kerfoot and Niemia(SP)
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I was maybe a little hype focused on thinking about a forward so yeah Niemela is probably closer in terms of overall value. Kerfoot really isn't a fair comparison since he's 3 years older and of course a pending UFA. They are similar in that they're both decent middle-6 options right now but Vancouver is likely hoping that Beauvillier still has a chance to blossom a little more offensively in a non-Islanders environment while with Kerfoot what you see is what you get at this point.
 
If he can keep up production close to what he has this season, it?s a hood deal. Otherwise, that?s a good chunk of cap committed to a guy who typically is a 60ish point producer.
 
Moneypuck has his expected goals at 17.8 while he actually has 31 goals right now.  He's also going to an organization that suppresses offense.  I can't see his offensive production being helped by playing in New York.

I don't think it's that terrible of a deal though. 
 
bustaheims said:
If he can keep up production close to what he has this season, it?s a hood deal. Otherwise, that?s a good chunk of cap committed to a guy who typically is a 60ish point producer.
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So long as 30 of those points are consistently goals, I'm not sure this is that far off what a youngish 60 point a year Centre would be expected to get on the UFA market.
 
https://twitter.com/stefen_rosner/status/1622325844008910850
Why does he say this after every deal he signs
 
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