Leafs @ Canucks - Dec. 10th, 10:00pm - SNO, Fan 590

[Zee]

Leafs are 6-3 under Keefe and trending in the right direction, can't we just enjoy that for now?

 

[azzurri63]

There is no excuse for 3 clear cut breakaways let alone the other scoring chances they got.

One day you might figure out that explanations aren't excuses. I don't feel the need to "excuse" anything the Leafs do because I'm not their angry boss checking what time they came into work and despite the fact that you like to pretend otherwise, neither are you.

So why are we on this forum? To throw our 2 cents on the team we love. We obviously have different views on this team. You think there's nothing wrong with it and I think otherwise.
Throw the breakaways aside doesn't matter this teams team defence is horrendous plain and simple. Some of us see that others are as blind as management.
Finally yes I'm not their boss nor do I care to be and I apologize for being a passionate fan.

 

[Kin]

So why are we on this forum?

To talk about the team, most of us. It's just that, by and large, that usually doesn't take the part of getting angry over stuff we have no control over or saying the same thing over and over and over and over.

Some of us accept the concept of nuance and try to have slightly more constructive analysis.

You think there's nothing wrong with it

I've said repeatedly today that I don't think they're a very good defensive team.

I appreciate that because I'm not in the threads saying that I think they should trade everyone because they don't hit because they're not big tough guys like you are that you can't perceive that as criticism but it's pretty straightforward and clear.

 

[Frank E]

Leafs are 6-3 under Keefe and trending in the right direction, can't we just enjoy that for now?

Sure we can.  But with our collective hockey insight around here, we can also drill down to some root issues in terms of what they need to correct to be more successful longer term.

There's a difference between saying "they're just terrible" and discussing "there's a problem defending leads that needs to be addressed."

 

[Kin]

There's a difference between saying "they're just terrible" and discussing "there's a problem defending leads that needs to be addressed."

Yes, although that should probably involve some context like "They're 11-0-2 when leading after 2" and "They're 6-2-1 when leading after 1" so it's not a huge problem.

 

[azzurri63]

So why are we on this forum?

To talk about the team, most of us. It's just that, by and large, that usually doesn't take the part of getting angry over stuff we have no control over or saying the same thing over and over and over and over.

Some of us accept the concept of nuance and try to have slightly more constructive analysis.

You think there's nothing wrong with it

I've said repeatedly today that I don't think they're a very good defensive team.

I appreciate that because I'm not in the threads saying that I think they should trade everyone because they don't hit because they're not big tough guys like you are that you can't perceive that as criticism but it's pretty straightforward and clear.

Did I say I'm a tough guy? You don't even know who I am so why would you assume that? I'm old school sorry about that. Not a huge fan of this new league where a defence man can't even clear the front of his own net.

I call it like I see it and I really don't care the player. Whether you're making the minimum salary or 12 million a year if you're not playing well or earning your pay then that's something management has to look at. If Dubas isn't doing that then HE isn't doing his job.

We are obviously at different ends of the spectrum when it comes to our team and what it lacks. Unfortunately if some changes aren't made you'll keep hearing me complain about it. If no changes are made and this team makes the playoffs and excels I'll keep my mouth shut down the road.

 

[Highlander]

...needing consistently excellent goaltending to advance deep in the playoffs is probably true regardless.

Isn't that pretty much the First Commandment of the NHL GM Bible?

Certainly is,  Bower, Sawchuck, Dryden, Fleury, Binnington and the list goes on and on. Great Goaltending wins Stanley Cups more than any other single factor.

Binnington? He may have been the main reason for the team turnaround with a 1.89 GAA and .927 SV% but he wasn't as good in the playoffs, 2.46 GAA, .917 SV%. He had quite a few subpar games . I remember thinking at one point the only reason the finals went to 7 games was because of him and not in a good way.

Ok, the other guys then...geez ???

Well you did  elevate Biddington to HHOF status putting him in that group...Pretty sure Flower is a slam dunk for the HHOF. I would agree though, goaltending has the biggest effect on Cup winners. Very few times in history have teams won despite their goalies. Red Wings come to mind as one.

I didn't see the Cup finals after the Leafs were eliminated so was just going by what I had heard about the guy.  But usually great goaltending throughout the playoffs is crucial for any team to take home the Cup. Fairly simple and not contrary to any point of view.

 

[Highlander]

Also, just in general, re: the Red Wings it's true that they won 3 of their 4 Cups with goalies who aren't going to the HHOF or serious candidates for it but when they won those cups those middling goalies played very well. Vernon won the Conn Smythe in '97 and Osgood had a .930 SV% in 2008. Osgood "only" had a .918 SV% in '98 which I guess qualifies but I think the list of teams who won cups with mid-range goalies getting hot at the right moment is actually pretty long. Just off the top of my head there's Cam Ward, Anti Niemi, Tom Barrasso, Jonathan Quick in 2014 etc.

Oh forgot Brodeur as one of the clutch guys and long term, man could he handle the puck.  Wish he could give Freddie some stickhandling lessons

 

[Guilt Trip]

...needing consistently excellent goaltending to advance deep in the playoffs is probably true regardless.

Isn't that pretty much the First Commandment of the NHL GM Bible?

Certainly is,  Bower, Sawchuck, Dryden, Fleury, Binnington and the list goes on and on. Great Goaltending wins Stanley Cups more than any other single factor.

Binnington? He may have been the main reason for the team turnaround with a 1.89 GAA and .927 SV% but he wasn't as good in the playoffs, 2.46 GAA, .917 SV%. He had quite a few subpar games . I remember thinking at one point the only reason the finals went to 7 games was because of him and not in a good way.

Ok, the other guys then...geez ???

Well you did  elevate Biddington to HHOF status putting him in that group...Pretty sure Flower is a slam dunk for the HHOF. I would agree though, goaltending has the biggest effect on Cup winners. Very few times in history have teams won despite their goalies. Red Wings come to mind as one.

I didn't see the Cup finals after the Leafs were eliminated so was just going by what I had heard about the guy.  But usually great goaltending throughout the playoffs is crucial for any team to take home the Cup. Fairly simple and not contrary to any point of view.

He was on/off. Def need the goaltending or you're done and he was good enough 4 times.

 

[Kin]

You don't even know who I am so why would you assume that?

Because I read the things you post and respond accordingly. Like what I do when I'm here is I have an opinion and I state it, then sometimes people challenge it and I craft a response taking their challenge into account.

So like you know how I just said that I don't think this is a very good defensive team and you responded by saying we're on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of what this team lacks? Well, unless that means you think this is a very good defensive team then it's another example about how you don't actually listen to what other people say to you and you just want to post the same thing over and over again without regard for actual nuanced discussion.

 

[Highlander]

Leafs are 6-3 under Keefe and trending in the right direction, can't we just enjoy that for now?

Yep and his win percentage everywhere he has been are off the charts. Let's hope it continues to trend in the same manor. 

 

[Frank E]

There's a difference between saying "they're just terrible" and discussing "there's a problem defending leads that needs to be addressed."

Yes, although that should probably involve some context like "They're 11-0-2 when leading after 2" and "They're 6-2-1 when leading after 1" so it's not a huge problem.

I honestly was just throwing that out there as an example of a discussion...purely just from what was talked about from the game that I didn't watch last night.  But given they've played so much from behind, that's an interesting statistic you bring up.

 

[Kin]

I honestly was just throwing that out there as an example of a discussion...purely just from what was talked about from the game that I didn't watch last night.  But given they've played so much from behind, that's an interesting statistic you bring up.

It's actually sort of an interesting split. The Leafs are:

11-0-2 when leading after 2
0-8-1 when trailing after 2
4-5-1 when it's tied after 2

11-0-2, for what it's worth, is exactly what the Bruins are when leading after 2. The big difference is Boston has won almost every game where it's tied after 2(5-1-0) and they have a pretty good record when behind after 2(4-4-3). Also the Bruins are 5-1 in one goal games while the Leafs are 0-4.

 

[Frank E]

I honestly was just throwing that out there as an example of a discussion...purely just from what was talked about from the game that I didn't watch last night.  But given they've played so much from behind, that's an interesting statistic you bring up.

It's actually sort of an interesting split. The Leafs are:

11-0-2 when leading after 2
0-8-1 when trailing after 2
4-5-1 when it's tied after 2

11-0-2, for what it's worth, is exactly what the Bruins are when leading after 2. The big difference is Boston has won almost every game where it's tied after 2(5-1-0) and they have a pretty good record when behind after 2(4-4-3). Also the Bruins are 5-1 in one goal games while the Leafs are 0-4.

Since the Bruins are second to only the Islanders in fewest GA, I'd bet they're behind by fewer goals in that 4-4-3 after 2 stat.  The Leafs are 6th worst in the league in GA at this point.

 

[Hobbes]

11-0-2, for what it's worth, is exactly what the Bruins are when leading after 2...

I suspect that part of the "Leafs can't protect a lead" notion is heavily influenced by our last four playoff elimination games where they failed to do exactly that. Not sure that can be called "recency bias" but I'm sure it's in the back of many people's minds. Without some heriocs from Freddie they could easily have blown last night's game.


To a point you made earlier, I agree that you don't need a Vezina caliber goalie as long as your middle-of-the-road one puts together a solid 3 months of playoffs (or you have a backup step in and save the day, like Murray did in his rookie season when Fleury struggled for the Pens). I can't think of many (any?) Cup winners who had crappy goaltending during the actual playoffs no matter who was between the pipes.

 

[bustaheims]

Yes, although that should probably involve some context like "They're 11-0-2 when leading after 2" and "They're 6-2-1 when leading after 1" so it's not a huge problem.

Yeah. Defending leads hasn?t felt like a serious issue this season. The bigger problem has been giving up the first goal - which, with their defensive shortcomings, has a bit of a tendency to snowball when the Leafs aren?t able to respond quickly (or, at least, it feels that way).

 

[Frank E]

Yes, although that should probably involve some context like "They're 11-0-2 when leading after 2" and "They're 6-2-1 when leading after 1" so it's not a huge problem.

Yeah. Defending leads hasn?t felt like a serious issue this season. The bigger problem has been giving up the first goal - which, with their defensive shortcomings, has a bit of a tendency to snowball when the Leafs aren?t able to respond quickly (or, at least, it feels that way).

It feels that way to me too.

 

[Zee]

Leafs are 6-3 under Keefe and trending in the right direction, can't we just enjoy that for now?

Yep and his win percentage everywhere he has been are off the charts. Let's hope it continues to trend in the same manor.

I'm willing to give it more time.

I'm told the fancy stats are better under Keefe, and the easy stats to see, goals scored per game and goals given up per game are also better under Keefe.  Powerplay and penalty kill are also better.

All this with no training camp and taking over a very fragile group.


So say what you will, but as I said before the team is trending in the right direction over 9 games, let's see if they can keep it up or *shock* get even better!

 

[Kin]

The Leafs are 6th worst in the league in GA at this point.

9th worst but sure. They're also 3rd worst in SA/G. Which adds up to a team that's struggling defensively and in net(Freddy is obviously good but the backup situation has the team under league average in SV%)

But what I'm saying about their third period last night is that while it certainly was frustrating to watch it wasn't endemic of what's been plaguing them all year. It was kind of a freak occurrence and should be seen as such. That doesn't mean the defensive issues aren't there, just that they shouldn't be overstated. If they improved by 1.2 SA/G they'd be firmly in the middle of the league and same if they'd allowed 6 or so fewer goals all year.

 

[Frank E]

The Leafs are 6th worst in the league in GA at this point.

9th worst but sure. They're also 3rd worst in SA/G. Which adds up to a team that's struggling defensively and in net(Freddy is obviously good but the backup situation has the team under league average in SV%)

But what I'm saying about their third period last night is that while it certainly was frustrating to watch it wasn't endemic of what's been plaguing them all year. It was kind of a freak occurrence and should be seen as such. That doesn't mean the defensive issues aren't there, just that they shouldn't be overstated. If they improved by 1.2 SA/G they'd be firmly in the middle of the league and same if they'd allowed 6 or so fewer goals all year.

Am I looking at the wrong stat?

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?report=goalsagainstbystrength&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goalsAgainst