Leafs @ Red Wings - Dec. 10th, 8:00pm - SN, Fan 590

[ZBBM]

The Wings were robbed last night but a dude called Riemer.  What we witnessed is what a coach the caliber of Babcock brings to the table. Unbelievalbe positional play without resorting to the trap. They covered us like a blanket.
Unfortunetly it looks like our potential coach to be is not coming. At least not right now.

Yeah, they (Detroit) were definitely a sight to see. They move up and down the ice like football players, creating space for each other, supporting the puck movement, and cutting off passing lanes. Two passes and out of their own zone, 2 passes and into ours, always hitting their targets in motion. It's not just coaching though: it's the identification of the right template of players in every round of the draft available, the patient development of them at every level, and the indoctrination of a system that works.

Our team is pretty talented with gamebreaking ability, but they haven't figured out how to play as a team for more than 1 period every 3 games. Probably because the gamebreakers are trying to do too much, or do it too prettily. Our foundation needs fixing.

I enjoyed the win (nothing quite like snatching victory from the grasp of a division rival), but I was perturbed by the habits we exhibited (granted, they were playing on the road against a top tier team on the back half of a back to back). We have some good pieces already, but lots of improvement ahead of us.

Well put. Improvement is needed, but at least were starting to see more of it, compared to last season and the season before.

Yes, good post.

 

[ZBBM]

You could have made the same argument you're making the past two seasons before they fell off a cliff.

The reason they fell off a cliff both times is because all of these underlying metrics pointed to the fact that it had to happen.

Now this team is getting some wins, but he underlying metrics are still pretty horrific, it doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to project what lays in wait for the team should they not fundamentally improve.

Well, you know, it's like George Santayana said "Those who forget history are guaranteed to be happy and get a free slice of cake."

Ah yes, Santayana. First Japanese guy to make it in the Majors. Dude had a helluva curveball.

 

[bustaheims]

But anyway as I said, I think we've seen this movie before.

We've certainly seen the original. The question is whether this is a sequel or a remake.

 

[Redleaf]

Except, I guess, the 'W'. 

No, not even that. The fact that they won only makes it slightly less vile. Still nowhere close to palatable. An exceptionally poorly played win is still an exceptionally poorly played game.

I get that we all have different levels of expectations for this team. I don't base mine on corsi or stats so much as I do wins and loses, and overall improvement from previous seasons. I'd be disappointed if they don't make the playoffs this year, or if they don't show any sort of improvement over last year. (Statistics wise or wins/loses)

If the stats/corsi numbers are worse at seasons end than they were after last season, then I'll be disappointed, and I would expect some major changes to happen. If they show improvement and the team makes the playoffs, then I'm a happy fan. To me it's all about steady overall improvement , providing it's based on a full season and not just a handful of games.

You could have made the same argument you're making the past two seasons before they fell off a cliff.

The reason they fell off a cliff both times is because all of these underlying metrics pointed to the fact that it had to happen.

Now this team is getting some wins, but he underlying metrics are still pretty horrific, it doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to project what lays in wait for the team should they not fundamentally improve.

I'll be honest. I haven't gone through all the stats and compared them to last season. Maybe someone else could touch on how they compare, at least up to this point? Are they trending downwards. If so, for how many games. etc. etc.

I was under the impression that they had gotten better, but there could be another playoff killing slump coming around the corner.

I think they tried to address that issue in the off season with the players they've added, at least in my eyes, it has worked to a certain degree up to this point.

My gut feeling is that there won't be anything like the what we've seen the last few seasons, and that this team will be in the playoffs next spring, but, yeah....you never know.

m.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/is-the-maple-leafs-hot-start-for-real-this-time/article22021070/?service=mobile

This is a decent look at it, with a somewhat positive outlook given the small improvements they've made in some areas this year.

For this team to really be considered for real, games like last night and many others this year where they've been completely dominated in almost all facets of the game need to stop. Good teams have this happen maybe once or twice per season, not per month, because even when they're having a bad night, they are so well schooled in how to play the game that they can cover mistakes, playing run and gun, dump the puck giving away possession almost all of the time, we'll score one more than you guys, does not breed success in the modern NHL.

But anyway as I said, I think we've seen this movie before.

Thanks for sharing that. Thats about I see it playing out this year as well. Chances are they will slide back a bit, but not nearly as much as they have the past few seasons.

 

[herman]

Just to round out our discussion, Dubas (via Mirtle) talked about focusing on the process, not the points.

He is but one voice in the front office, but Kyle Dubas has quickly become an influential one for the Toronto Maple Leafs. [...] his most important contribution might be simply adding some perspective.

For years, the Leafs have had a complacency issue when they?ve risen in the standings early, as they have each of the past four seasons.

For whatever reason, the notion that they were okay as long as they were in a playoff spot has been prevalent among executives, staff and players, even if they were frittering away games again and again.

?We?re still in eighth place,? former goalie coach Fran?ois Allaire said back in February, 2012, prior to the Leafs going 6-13-3 to end the year.

?Nobody is looking at how high we are in the standings,? former executive Dave Poulin said midway through last season, before the wheels fell off again.

Contrast that with what Dubas had to say on Thursday, when on the heels of back-to-back wins he explained to reporters that no one in the organization was satisfied despite the Leafs holding one of the better records (16-9-3) in the Eastern Conference.

Their win over the Detroit Red Wings a night earlier ? their seventh victory in nine games ? had raised more red flags, as Toronto was badly outshot and outplayed and won thanks only to their netminder and a shootout.

Dubas doesn?t believe that?s a long-term recipe for success. And the word he used again and again on Thursday was ?process,? stressing that the how behind Toronto?s wins was more important than how many.

?I don?t think you have to be someone that?s invested in analytics to know that being outshot 42-19 and coming out of the game with a shootout win in large part thanks to James Reimer [isn?t ideal],? Dubas said.

?We?re not a group, of management and the coaching staff, that wants to hang on and win games. We want to find the most efficient way to do so and to be able to close out games a little bit better.?

There are lot of ways to break down the Leafs season to this point, but this simple exercise might be the most instructive of how unsettled their position is.

[...]

The trouble, too, is that Wednesday wasn?t a one-off situation. It may have been the Leafs? weakest game territorially this year, but this is a team that, while improved from a year ago, still ranks poorly in all of the possession metrics available.

According to fenwick-stats.com, Toronto is the fourth-worst possession team in the league, a problem that has plagued the organization for three seasons now under coach Randy Carlyle.

It?s a weak point that Dubas has spent considerable time on in the first 2 1/2 months of the season ? and one he says that everyone is committed to fixing.

?We work on that every day,? he said. ?The coaching staff is very inquisitive about it, which is good and a lot of fun ? to have that discussion. We certainly have our ideas. I don?t think sharing them [with the public] is overly helpful.

?It?s a process ? Everyone who?s been here is aware of the issues that have been there. Now we?re just trying to all work together to correct them and move ahead. That?s been the most enlightening part of this for me and the part that makes me the most excited.

?There?s nobody content that we?ve gone 7-1-1 in this stretch,? Dubas added. ?There?s no one really content with it.?

 

[Redleaf]

Just to round out our discussion, Dubas (via Mirtle) talked about focusing on the process, not the points.

He is but one voice in the front office, but Kyle Dubas has quickly become an influential one for the Toronto Maple Leafs. [...] his most important contribution might be simply adding some perspective.

For years, the Leafs have had a complacency issue when they?ve risen in the standings early, as they have each of the past four seasons.

For whatever reason, the notion that they were okay as long as they were in a playoff spot has been prevalent among executives, staff and players, even if they were frittering away games again and again.

?We?re still in eighth place,? former goalie coach Fran?ois Allaire said back in February, 2012, prior to the Leafs going 6-13-3 to end the year.

?Nobody is looking at how high we are in the standings,? former executive Dave Poulin said midway through last season, before the wheels fell off again.

Contrast that with what Dubas had to say on Thursday, when on the heels of back-to-back wins he explained to reporters that no one in the organization was satisfied despite the Leafs holding one of the better records (16-9-3) in the Eastern Conference.

Their win over the Detroit Red Wings a night earlier ? their seventh victory in nine games ? had raised more red flags, as Toronto was badly outshot and outplayed and won thanks only to their netminder and a shootout.

Dubas doesn?t believe that?s a long-term recipe for success. And the word he used again and again on Thursday was ?process,? stressing that the how behind Toronto?s wins was more important than how many.

?I don?t think you have to be someone that?s invested in analytics to know that being outshot 42-19 and coming out of the game with a shootout win in large part thanks to James Reimer [isn?t ideal],? Dubas said.

?We?re not a group, of management and the coaching staff, that wants to hang on and win games. We want to find the most efficient way to do so and to be able to close out games a little bit better.?

There are lot of ways to break down the Leafs season to this point, but this simple exercise might be the most instructive of how unsettled their position is.

[...]

The trouble, too, is that Wednesday wasn?t a one-off situation. It may have been the Leafs? weakest game territorially this year, but this is a team that, while improved from a year ago, still ranks poorly in all of the possession metrics available.

According to fenwick-stats.com, Toronto is the fourth-worst possession team in the league, a problem that has plagued the organization for three seasons now under coach Randy Carlyle.

It?s a weak point that Dubas has spent considerable time on in the first 2 1/2 months of the season ? and one he says that everyone is committed to fixing.

?We work on that every day,? he said. ?The coaching staff is very inquisitive about it, which is good and a lot of fun ? to have that discussion. We certainly have our ideas. I don?t think sharing them [with the public] is overly helpful.

?It?s a process ? Everyone who?s been here is aware of the issues that have been there. Now we?re just trying to all work together to correct them and move ahead. That?s been the most enlightening part of this for me and the part that makes me the most excited.

?There?s nobody content that we?ve gone 7-1-1 in this stretch,? Dubas added. ?There?s no one really content with it.?

I would imagine the hardest part of getting this right, is having the right mix of players. The new guys they brought in are probably better suited to make the adjustments or they wouldn't have been acquired. But some of the others may not be so easy.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

According to fenwick-stats.com, Toronto is the fourth-worst possession team in the league, a problem that has plagued the organization for three seasons now under coach Randy Carlyle.

'07-'08: 8th best
'08-'09: 11th best
'09-'10: 3rd best (Kessel 54%!)

'10-'11: 26th best
'11-'12: 24th best
'12-'13: 30th best
'13-'14: 30th best
'14-'15: 27th best

 

[herman]

I would imagine the hardest part of getting this right, is having the right mix of players. The new guys they brought in are probably better suited to make the adjustments or they wouldn't have been acquired. But some of the others may not be so easy.

We have to wait out some bad contracts too. It's hard to adjust and make changes while wearing boat anchors around your neck. However, the Leafs are making changes for this purpose where there are no such constraints (analytics, scouting, development, cap management).

According to fenwick-stats.com, Toronto is the fourth-worst possession team in the league, a problem that has plagued the organization for three seasons now under coach Randy Carlyle.

'07-'08: 8th best
'08-'09: 11th best
'09-'10: 3rd best (Kessel 54%!)

'10-'11: 26th best 4th worst 5th worst
'11-'12: 24th best 6th worst 7th worst
'12-'13: 30th best 1st worst
'13-'14: 30th best 1st worst
'14-'15: 27th best 3rd worst 4th worst

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Well they were well on their way to a 2nd straight poor season possession-wise when he was hired in March 2012, but it's only gotten worse.

I'm curious to know what's changed so much between 07-08 to 09-10 and since.  Sundin was there at the beginning of that stretch, but that 09-10 team had Kessel, had Phaneuf for the 2nd half, etc.  That team was killed by a SH% that was 27th and SV% that was 25th in the league.  PDO was 2nd lowest in the league.  Funny enough their SH% has been basically top 10 or top 5 since.

And 27th best is actually 4th worst. 

EDITS

 

[herman]

Well they were well on their way to a 2nd straight poor season possession-wise when he was hired in March 2012, but it's only gotten worse.

And 27th best is actually 4th worst. 

Thanks for catching that! Higher worstiness is better?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Well they were well on their way to a 2nd straight poor season possession-wise when he was hired in March 2012, but it's only gotten worse.

And 27th best is actually 4th worst. 

Thanks for catching that! Higher worstiness is better?

I think stuff like that is where 'analytics' can really help though.  I think most people thought those Leafs teams were bad/terrible but maybe stats like that can help tell a different story.  If you have terrible goaltending it kind of equalizes to a large extent the rest of the team - and stuff like SH% can fluctuate year to year (or maybe you need more snipers).  But maybe you don't necessarily need to blow the team up even if their results in the standings or by the 'eye' test don't seem so hot.