Nylander signing 8-year, $92mil extension

[dappleganger]

No team has more than 1 player in the top 10 of League salaries. Except the Leafs who will have 4. Lol.

 

[Bender]

I really don't understand the negotiating stance the Leafs took with this deal.

If the player was willing to take less than expected then give him the NTC.  If you are paying him top dollar than he loses the NTC.  Nylander got both.

If the deal is 8 then the player takes less as they decline in ability due to age or if they want top dollar then they get fewer years so that they aren't given superstar money as a 2nd or 3rd line player.  Nylander got both.

The makeup of a Stanley Cup team is NOT a mystery.  It has been consistent for decades with only a few exceptions over that whole time.  How close is Toronto to a Stanley Cup team??

Not sure if they will win the Cup with this core 4...EVER.

I am shocked that the Leafs feel Matthews and Nylander have signed the best deal possible to build a Stanley Cup champion.  All 4 boys have FULL NTCs so Leaf fans are stuck with that salary structure.

Some of you folks seem hopeful about the Leafs winning a Cup with the contracts being handed out.

I don't think anyone thinks this is a deal for the Leafs, but we have to be hopeful otherwise what's the point? Also realistically what was the alternative? The Leafs had no leverage. If Nylander has an average year we'd pay him $10m-$10.5 and people wouldn't bat an eye. Unfortunately for us he's having a contract year. Maybe he doesn't make more elsewhere but so what? He could still just walk somewhere else because he feels like it and maybe in a lower tax state etc.

Let's see what we do with Marner & Tavares.

With Marner it will almost certainly be a similar story - pay him the increase that he wants or he'll go to free agency. The question is - at what AAV do the Leafs walk away? And can they afford to walk away since there will be no return for him other than cap space (still a valuable asset)?

The original sin was caving to them as RFAs, and possibly the agents using Tavares as a measuring stick.

But they will walk away from Tavares before Marner. And if nothing else, we've seen NMCs don't matter as much as we think they do.

 

[cw]

I really don't understand the negotiating stance the Leafs took with this deal.

If the player was willing to take less than expected then give him the NTC.  If you are paying him top dollar than he loses the NTC.  Nylander got both.

If the deal is 8 then the player takes less as they decline in ability due to age or if they want top dollar then they get fewer years so that they aren't given superstar money as a 2nd or 3rd line player.  Nylander got both.

The makeup of a Stanley Cup team is NOT a mystery.  It has been consistent for decades with only a few exceptions over that whole time.  How close is Toronto to a Stanley Cup team??

Not sure if they will win the Cup with this core 4...EVER.

I am shocked that the Leafs feel Matthews and Nylander have signed the best deal possible to build a Stanley Cup champion.  All 4 boys have FULL NTCs so Leaf fans are stuck with that salary structure.

Some of you folks seem hopeful about the Leafs winning a Cup with the contracts being handed out.

I don't think anyone thinks this is a deal for the Leafs, but we have to be hopeful otherwise what's the point? Also realistically what was the alternative? The Leafs had no leverage. If Nylander has an average year we'd pay him $10m-$10.5 and people wouldn't bat an eye. Unfortunately for us he's having a contract year. Maybe he doesn't make more elsewhere but so what? He could still just walk somewhere else because he feels like it and maybe in a lower tax state etc.

Let's see what we do with Marner & Tavares.

With Marner it will almost certainly be a similar story - pay him the increase that he wants or he'll go to free agency. The question is - at what AAV do the Leafs walk away? And can they afford to walk away since there will be no return for him other than cap space (still a valuable asset)?

The original sin was caving to them as RFAs, and possibly the agents using Tavares as a measuring stick.

But they will walk away from Tavares before Marner. And if nothing else, we've seen NMCs don't matter as much as we think they do.

I think that NMC will be very important to Marner's camp for negotiating next year. "Pay the ransom or we'll leave for nothing" and the Leafs can only react one of two ways.

I don't know what sort of gentleman's agreement they have but technically, Nylander can still be traded to any one of 22 teams. So the Leafs had that to help them. Can you imagine the auction haul that could bring if Leafs retained half his salary for a sign & trade? Now that could be a decent example of something that would turn UFAs off from signing in Toronto (you & I had previously discussed). And they might have a team revolt on their hands if they did that. So that is extremely unlikely - as in not happening. But it is a pretty wild horse trading business they're in.

 

[herman]

Friedman mentioned on his latest pod that the Leafs shopped Nylander for a top-Dman but didn?t like what was on the market.

https://twitter.com/thegoldenmuzzy/status/1744490081937723759
Only took half a day

The benefit of locking up Nylander is that you have an anchor against Marner?s agent?s threats of leaving. PK? Cheap. RW for Auston that helps him score? Please. The free agent market is also a lot spicier when Marner?s deal expires.

Edit: context
https://x.com/jeffveillette/status/1744505002029129948

 

[dappleganger]

Honestly, Marner should just enjoy his $11.5mx8 deal and get on with it.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Honestly, Marner should just enjoy his $11.5mx8 deal and get on with it.

And Marner has been the better player over their careers. Why would he sign for the same?

 

[azzurri63]

I really don't understand the negotiating stance the Leafs took with this deal.

If the player was willing to take less than expected then give him the NTC.  If you are paying him top dollar than he loses the NTC.  Nylander got both.

If the deal is 8 then the player takes less as they decline in ability due to age or if they want top dollar then they get fewer years so that they aren't given superstar money as a 2nd or 3rd line player.  Nylander got both.

The makeup of a Stanley Cup team is NOT a mystery.  It has been consistent for decades with only a few exceptions over that whole time.  How close is Toronto to a Stanley Cup team??

Not sure if they will win the Cup with this core 4...EVER.

I am shocked that the Leafs feel Matthews and Nylander have signed the best deal possible to build a Stanley Cup champion.  All 4 boys have FULL NTCs so Leaf fans are stuck with that salary structure.

Some of you folks seem hopeful about the Leafs winning a Cup with the contracts being handed out.

I don't think anyone thinks this is a deal for the Leafs, but we have to be hopeful otherwise what's the point? Also realistically what was the alternative? The Leafs had no leverage. If Nylander has an average year we'd pay him $10m-$10.5 and people wouldn't bat an eye. Unfortunately for us he's having a contract year. Maybe he doesn't make more elsewhere but so what? He could still just walk somewhere else because he feels like it and maybe in a lower tax state etc.

Let's see what we do with Marner & Tavares.

With Marner it will almost certainly be a similar story - pay him the increase that he wants or he'll go to free agency. The question is - at what AAV do the Leafs walk away? And can they afford to walk away since there will be no return for him other than cap space (still a valuable asset)?

The original sin was caving to them as RFAs, and possibly the agents using Tavares as a measuring stick.

But they will walk away from Tavares before Marner. And if nothing else, we've seen NMCs don't matter as much as we think they do.

Said that when they signed them coming off their entry level contracts. Tavares shouldn't even come up as a measuring stick. He put in his time and was paid handsomely for it M & M didn't need to take us to the cleaners and that's exactly what they did. Dubas f'd up.

 

[azzurri63]

Honestly, Marner should just enjoy his $11.5mx8 deal and get on with it.

And Marner has been the better player over their careers. Why would he sign for the same?

Because he's not worth any more period. He was paid handsomely so why does he need a significant raise. As I said pay him the same as Willy and that's it. Doesn't like it explore other options.

 

[Kin]

I really don't understand the negotiating stance the Leafs took with this deal.

If the player was willing to take less than expected then give him the NTC.  If you are paying him top dollar than he loses the NTC.  Nylander got both.

If the deal is 8 then the player takes less as they decline in ability due to age or if they want top dollar then they get fewer years so that they aren't given superstar money as a 2nd or 3rd line player.  Nylander got both.

That's not really how a negotiation like this would work though. If the Leafs go to Nylander and say "We've got two options for you, you can have 10m a year with a NTC or you can have 12 million a year without one" then he'll say "Well, I'm pretty sure I can get the money I want and the NTC I want as a UFA so no thanks". The Leafs have to convince him to sign here.

Likewise the idea that a long term deal will drive the AAV down only works if A) the player doesn't think he can get the deal as a UFA but also B) the idea is that if Nylander signed a 4 year deal, he'd be able to sign another four year deal at a higher AAV when the cap has grown. Signing an 8 year deal guarantees the player money but he gives up being able to renegotiate the deal as the cap grows.

The makeup of a Stanley Cup team is NOT a mystery.  It has been consistent for decades with only a few exceptions over that whole time.  How close is Toronto to a Stanley Cup team??

I don't think this is true at all. Post the last lockout and the changes made to the CBA then what constitutes a Cup winning team has never looked more different from year to year. The Blackhawks won with a ton of talent but were probably only capable of being the team they were because a lot of their better players signed the sort of back-diving deals that teams can't take advantage of now. The Kings won with solid depth, elite goaltending and no super-duper stars. The Penguins were almost the opposite with a bunch of hall of famers and then filled out depth. The Lightning probably came the closest to the Chicago model because so many of their guys took under market deals. The Avs, Blues and Knights with the latter two having a real whiff of one-year wonder to them.

It's not like the 90's anymore where having 2 Hall of Fame C's, a HOF D-man and a HOF in Net was basically the only blueprint to winning. These days I don't think there's any sort of pattern to building a cup winner other than trying to build a team with as few weaknesses as possible, getting into the playoffs and then hoping your goalie gets hot for a while.

I think anyone who says they know definitively what constitutes a cup winner these days is working off old information.

 

[Zee]

Honestly, Marner should just enjoy his $11.5mx8 deal and get on with it.

And Marner has been the better player over their careers. Why would he sign for the same?

Because he's not worth any more period. He was paid handsomely so why does he need a significant raise. As I said pay him the same as Willy and that's it. Doesn't like it explore other options.

Marner will try to get as close to Matthews cap hit as possible.  I can see an 8 year 12.5M offer from them.  100 million over 8.

 

[Peter D.]

Marner will try to get as close to Matthews cap hit as possible.  I can see an 8 year 12.5M offer from them.  100 million over 8.

This is as close to the exact offer Marner will likely receive and accept.

Above Nylander and below Matthews (which is the right pecking order), and max contract that should take him too close to retirement as a member of the Leafs.

 

[cabber24]

Marner will try to get as close to Matthews cap hit as possible.  I can see an 8 year 12.5M offer from them.  100 million over 8.

This is as close to the exact offer Marner will likely receive and accept.

Above Nylander and below Matthews (which is the right pecking order), and max contract that should take him too close to retirement as a member of the Leafs.

The Leafs love to pay top dollar so just wait and give Marnier two playoffs to prove it because, in my opinion, I am not willing to entertain even the Nylander equivalent at this time. The dialogue will be excruciating for him if he has another meek playoff.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I really don't understand the negotiating stance the Leafs took with this deal.

If the player was willing to take less than expected then give him the NTC.  If you are paying him top dollar than he loses the NTC.  Nylander got both.

If the deal is 8 then the player takes less as they decline in ability due to age or if they want top dollar then they get fewer years so that they aren't given superstar money as a 2nd or 3rd line player.  Nylander got both.

That's not really how a negotiation like this would work though. If the Leafs go to Nylander and say "We've got two options for you, you can have 10m a year with a NTC or you can have 12 million a year without one" then he'll say "Well, I'm pretty sure I can get the money I want and the NTC I want as a UFA so no thanks". The Leafs have to convince him to sign here.

Likewise the idea that a long term deal will drive the AAV down only works if A) the player doesn't think he can get the deal as a UFA but also B) the idea is that if Nylander signed a 4 year deal, he'd be able to sign another four year deal at a higher AAV when the cap has grown. Signing an 8 year deal guarantees the player money but he gives up being able to renegotiate the deal as the cap grows.

The makeup of a Stanley Cup team is NOT a mystery.  It has been consistent for decades with only a few exceptions over that whole time.  How close is Toronto to a Stanley Cup team??

I don't think this is true at all. Post the last lockout and the changes made to the CBA then what constitutes a Cup winning team has never looked more different from year to year. The Blackhawks won with a ton of talent but were probably only capable of being the team they were because a lot of their better players signed the sort of back-diving deals that teams can't take advantage of now. The Kings won with solid depth, elite goaltending and no super-duper stars. The Penguins were almost the opposite with a bunch of hall of famers and then filled out depth. The Lightning probably came the closest to the Chicago model because so many of their guys took under market deals. The Avs, Blues and Knights with the latter two having a real whiff of one-year wonder to them.

It's not like the 90's anymore where having 2 Hall of Fame C's, a HOF D-man and a HOF in Net was basically the only blueprint to winning. These days I don't think there's any sort of pattern to building a cup winner other than trying to build a team with as few weaknesses as possible, getting into the playoffs and then hoping your goalie gets hot for a while.

I think anyone who says they know definitively what constitutes a cup winner these days is working off old information.

I like that perspective. 

I was thinking the Leafs might be able to pull off a "Pittsburgh" model (with all due respect to Brian Burke) with Matthews, Nylander, Marner all hitting their prime, Rielly in his prime and Tavares still playing like a star. 

With: - some forward depth, like Knies, Bertuzzi, Domi, Jarnkrok, Gregor and Kampf to take some of the heavy minutes so the CORE 4 don't get burned out in the HUGE number of games needed to win the Cup,
- hopefully one top upgrade on D and
- half decent goaltending from Woll and Jones or if Samsonov can get his head in the game
...the might have a chance.

Thanks Nik

 

[Britishbulldog]

Marner will try to get as close to Matthews cap hit as possible.  I can see an 8 year 12.5M offer from them.  100 million over 8.

This is as close to the exact offer Marner will likely receive and accept.

Above Nylander and below Matthews (which is the right pecking order), and max contract that should take him too close to retirement as a member of the Leafs.

The Leafs love to pay top dollar so just wait and give Marnier two playoffs to prove it because, in my opinion, I am not willing to entertain even the Nylander equivalent at this time. The dialogue will be excruciating for him if he has another meek playoff.

I agree with you both

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Marner's next contract will certainly be tricky, and I'd be pretty shocked if his side was super interested in negotiating a deal this offseason if he continues to play below expectations this season (possibly worth noting that Marner's worst season in 6 years still has him producing points at a higher pace than Nylander ever did prior to this season).

At this time last year nobody on earth, except for maybe Nylander himself, would have thought he'd be signing a 8x$11.5mil deal right now. If Marner pops off in his contract year as Nylander and so many other players have done it's just a fact that his resume will have 5 seasons of prior 90+ point per game pace (possibly 6 if Marner heats up even a little this season), 5 seasons of top unit penalty killing work, as well as 1 Selke trophy nomination. Nylander had 0 of any of those going into this season.

So if Marner finds himself having a career year next season he'll have absolutely every right to demand a number somewhat significantly higher than Nylander's.

 

[Joe S.]

I was listening to the FAN this morning for a few minutes and they were going on about how the leafs ?love giving out NMC?

Can someone point me to the big player signings that don?t include a NMC?

I just looked at a few random ones. Gaudreau has one, MacKinnon has one, huberdeau has one, Kadri has one, Pastrnak has one, Marchand has one? and so on and so on.

 

[Deebo]

I was listening to the FAN this morning for a few minutes and they were going on about how the leafs ?love giving out NMC?

Can someone point me to the big player signings that don?t include a NMC?

I just looked at a few random ones. Gaudreau has one, MacKinnon has one, huberdeau has one, Kadri has one, Pastrnak has one, Marchand has one? and so on and so on.

All of those guys except MacKinnon's NMC's turn into limited NTCs in the later years of thier deals

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

I was listening to the FAN this morning for a few minutes and they were going on about how the leafs ?love giving out NMC?

Can someone point me to the big player signings that don?t include a NMC?

I just looked at a few random ones. Gaudreau has one, MacKinnon has one, huberdeau has one, Kadri has one, Pastrnak has one, Marchand has one? and so on and so on.

Out of the top 50 $$ contracts in the league, seventeen of them do not have a MNMC/NMC.

The media loves to shit all over anything Leafs.

 

[Joe S.]

I was listening to the FAN this morning for a few minutes and they were going on about how the leafs ?love giving out NMC?

Can someone point me to the big player signings that don?t include a NMC?

I just looked at a few random ones. Gaudreau has one, MacKinnon has one, huberdeau has one, Kadri has one, Pastrnak has one, Marchand has one? and so on and so on.

All of those guys except MacKinnon's NMC's turn into limited NTCs in the later years of thier deals

Yeah I saw that but still - it?s a NMC. It?s not like the leafs are exclusively giving them out. And who knows what the conditions of the modified NMC are anyway.

Point is we?ve rarely seen a NMC really hinder moving a player.

 

[cw]

It's not like the 90's anymore where having 2 Hall of Fame C's, a HOF D-man and a HOF in Net was basically the only blueprint to winning. These days I don't think there's any sort of pattern to building a cup winner other than trying to build a team with as few weaknesses as possible, getting into the playoffs and then hoping your goalie gets hot for a while.

I think anyone who says they know definitively what constitutes a cup winner these days is working off old information.

One could find some exceptions to the blueprint before the lockout but not lots and they tended to be able to make sense of the exception and why it worked.

Can't say I've spent months studying the question.
But I have made an effort.
I sure haven't figured it out since the lockout.
I can't even figure out the goaltending rollercoasters of performance they seem to get on