Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[bustaheims]

Depends on how it is used.

True, but, it would be very difficult for the Leafs to use it on anything less valuable than what Clarkson has provided. In fact, with the cap not rising significantly, the Leafs may need to free up roughly that much just to retain Bernier and Kadri - and to be able to do that without moving an actual contributing member of the roster out would be a big win in my books.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

In fact, with the cap not rising significantly, the Leafs may need to free up roughly that much just to retain Bernier and Kadri - and to be able to do that without moving an actual contributing member of the roster out would be a big win in my books.

If they let Franson walk that shouldn't be much of an issue. They'd just have to let Santorelli and Winnik walk and either replace them with cheap options within or try and hit the bargain bin in late July/August again.

Then again letting Franson walk could technically be considered "moving an actual contributing member of the roster out".

 

[bustaheims]

If they let Franson walk that shouldn't be much of an issue. They'd just have to let Santorelli and Winnik walk and either replace them with cheap options within or try and hit the bargain bin in late July/August again.

Then again letting Franson walk could technically be considered "moving an actual contributing member of the roster out".

Yeah, I was looking at it in terms of replacing guys like Santorelli and Winnik with guys earning similar salaries to what they're earning now. Franson really represents the only expiring UFA contract that might not be replaced by someone on a similar contract. Also, Gleason's buy cap hit goes up to $1.833M next season, and that cuts into any savings the Leafs get from expiring contracts (though, the overage penalty going away covers some of that - assuming the team doesn't pick up another one of those because of this season). Without moving out a contract, the Leafs will have ~$16M-$18M in cap space to re-sign Kadri, Bernier and Panik, and fill out the rest of the roster. It's possible, but it'll be tight.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yeah, I was looking at it in terms of replacing guys like Santorelli and Winnik with guys earning similar salaries to what they're earning now. Franson really represents the only expiring UFA contract that might not be replaced by someone on a similar contract. Also, Gleason's buy cap hit goes up to $1.833M next season, and that cuts into any savings the Leafs get from expiring contracts (though, the overage penalty going away covers some of that - assuming the team doesn't pick up another one of those because of this season). Without moving out a contract, the Leafs will have ~$16M-$18M in cap space to re-sign Kadri, Bernier and Panik, and fill out the rest of the roster. It's possible, but it'll be tight.

Ack, I forgot about Gleason's buyout + Gunnarsson's hit. If Bernier and Kadri split $10mil, Panik gets $1mil, Franson's "replacement" is signed for $1mil, and we sign UFA replacements for Santo/Winnik/Booth at their same rates we're at $70.8mil.

The NHL's lowest estimate is $71.7mil, so yeah it will definitely be tight. Like I said, forgot about Gleason/Gunnar. And it will be another year where we're right up against the cap despite being a wildcard team at best probably. Plus if the NHLPA doesn't use their 5% kicker we're screwed (like most of the league really).

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

@FortShox 

Per Friedman, expectation is that Bob Murray & the Ducks are gonna go all-in; looking to add a top-4 D w Cody Franson mentioned specifically

Right now their blueline is:

Fowler-Lovejoy
Lindholm-Beachemin

I'm sure that they would love an improvement over Lovejoy, and Franson would slot in there nicely. According to NHLNumbers they have plenty of cap space too.

I'm pretty sure Vatanen is a top 4 D-man, at least in terms of TOI.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm pretty sure Vatanen is a top 4 D-man, at least in terms of TOI.

Doh, you're right. Forgot about him, just looked at their top-4 in their most recent game and he was playing on their 3rd pairing for some reason (averaging the 2nd highest TOI for Anaheim). Wonder where he fits in that case.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'd do it. It's tough losing another player with no assets coming back, but I wouldn't lose much sleep over it. It obviously wouldn't work though. I can't see any team taking on five more years of Clarkson for a few months and negotiating opportunity with Franson.

Not to mention that much salary in one trade.

Freeing over $5M in cap space is a significant asset to receive in a trade.

Oh for sure. What I meant to say is it'd be tough for another team to take on the $8.5M cap hit that comes with Clarkson/Franson. Assuming they'd only do that with the assumption Franson re-signs, they're looking around $10-11.5M for the long haul. I'd have to assume they'd send a bad contact back, but it's still a lot of coin.

How much could the Leafs reasonably retain of Clarkson's before it's not worth it?

 

[bustaheims]

How much could the Leafs reasonably retain of Clarkson's before it's not worth it?

I suppose that really depends on the salary coming back. If there isn't any, I think they could go as high as the 50% max and have it still be worth it. $2.625M and a roster spot opened up? Could certainly do worse.

That being said, in the unlikely scenario that the Leafs do decide to go the blow it up and rebuild route, then retaining Clarkson has value. It helps keep the team from having to dish out a bunch of terrible contracts just to stay about the cap floor.

 

[Kin]

Man, this hard cap stuff really makes for a fun league.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I suppose that really depends on the salary coming back. If there isn't any, I think they could go as high as the 50% max and have it still be worth it. $2.625M and a roster spot opened up? Could certainly do worse.

That being said, in the unlikely scenario that the Leafs do decide to go the blow it up and rebuild route, then retaining Clarkson has value. It helps keep the team from having to dish out a bunch of terrible contracts just to stay about the cap floor.

We could also just pray for expansion.

 

[Highlander]

Mike Richards just placed on Waivers?.wow

 

[bustaheims]

We could also just pray for expansion.

We could, but, that's at least a couple seasons away.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

We could also just pray for expansion.

We could, but, that's at least a couple seasons away.

Yeah but I think worst-case scenario he gets picked up there. Especially if there are two new teams. I don't think Clarkson finishes his contract as a Leaf.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah but I think worst-case scenario he gets picked up there. Especially if there are two new teams. I don't think Clarkson finishes his contract as a Leaf.

I have my doubts about that, too, but, at the same time, I really don't envision a scenario where a team would acquire. I imagine even expansion teams will have better options. Two expansion teams at the same time might thin the pack enough, but, if they're introduced in different seasons, I'm not so sure.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I have my doubts about that, too, but, at the same time, I really don't envision a scenario where a team would acquire. I imagine even expansion teams will have better options. Two expansion teams at the same time might thin the pack enough, but, if they're introduced in different seasons, I'm not so sure.

It would mostly be because of that cap floor. Although it might be possible that the league exempts them from having to reach that in their first season or two so that would pretty much end that speculation.

 

[bustaheims]

It would mostly be because of that cap floor. Although it might be possible that the league exempts them from having to reach that in their first season or two so that would pretty much end that speculation.

I also imagine they'd prefer to overpay contributing UFAs than take on Clarkson.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I also imagine they'd prefer to overpay contributing UFAs than take on Clarkson.

Yeah but will contributing UFAs want to sign with an expans... *remembers it will probably be Vegas*... nevermind.

 

[ZBBM]

Guys, you can twist the pretzel anyway you want, but ain't nobody taking Clarkson off our hands.  The only way out is to put him the pressbox and make it clear to him through backchannels that he stays there until he retires.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Mike Richards just placed on Waivers?.wow

Nonis must be going mad trying to clear cap space.

 

[caver]

hypothetically...if Phaneuf was out for the season with his injury wouldn't that clear enough cap space for Richards ?