Official Ottawa Senators Thread

[bustaheims]

All it takes is 2 interested parties to start driving the price up in negotiations...I don't subscribe to the theory that they all low-balled Ottawa...it's Erik Karlsson they're acquiring here.

I wouldn't call it low-balling. I think it's a fair read of the situation. You know Ottawa is in a position where they likely have to move the guy. You know there's a limited number of teams he'll waive his NTC for and that can fit the kind of contract he's looking for into their cap structure - and the kinds of prospects those teams have to offer. You're not going to start with your best pieces. If someone else raises the price, then maybe you raise yours, but, until then, you stick to your guns and use your leverage to try to force the price down.

 

[Kin]

I acknowledge that, but I meant even considering those things.

Well, without knowing the details of the offers it's tough to know what constitutes "low-balled" here but I think teams like Vegas would have good cause to be cautious. Unless they think that their run this year was a legitimate indicator that they're one of the best teams in the league I'd imagine that going all in on Karlsson to the point that you think the two Karlssons are going to be the guys you build a real cup contender around you'd probably be pretty hesitant to include the guys you think could become the sort of core pieces they need if they have no easy way of getting replacements.

It's why I think maybe Dallas has emerged as the frontrunner. Benn, Seguin and Karlsson at least sort of feels like that sort of contending core but that'd be a really top heavy team without a lot of depth and after Karlsson and Seguin's new deals they might very well not have much maneuverability to address their depth issues. So again, trading super high value cost controlled assets might not be the easiest call if their 2nd line is as bad as it looks.

Tampa makes the most sense from a win now perspective but they may not have the cap room to get a new deal done or have the high end prospects Ottawa is looking for(Unless they're willing to part with Sergachev).

So, yeah, I can see why there'd be reluctance to go full speed ahead here. Karlsson's a great player but he doesn't solve all of these team's problems by himself.

 

[rdowdall]

I acknowledge that, but I meant even considering those things.

Well, without knowing the details of the offers it's tough to know what constitutes "low-balled" here but I think teams like Vegas would have good cause to be cautious. Unless they think that their run this year was a legitimate indicator that they're one of the best teams in the league I'd imagine that going all in on Karlsson to the point that you think the two Karlssons are going to be the guys you build a real cup contender around you'd probably be pretty hesitant to include the guys you think could become the sort of core pieces they need if they have no easy way of getting replacements.

It's why I think maybe Dallas has emerged as the frontrunner. Benn, Seguin and Karlsson at least sort of feels like that sort of contending core but that'd be a really top heavy team without a lot of depth and after Karlsson and Seguin's new deals they might very well not have much maneuverability to address their depth issues. So again, trading super high value cost controlled assets might not be the easiest call if their 2nd line is as bad as it looks.

Tampa makes the most sense from a win now perspective but they may not have the cap room to get a new deal done or have the high end prospects Ottawa is looking for(Unless they're willing to part with Sergachev).

So, yeah, I can see why there'd be reluctance to go full speed ahead here. Karlsson's a great player but he doesn't solve all of these team's problems by himself.

Love this Ottawa Sun article:
http://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/a-star-prospect-william-nylander-and-timothy-liljegren-what-the-senators-might-seek-in-an-erik-karlsson-deal/wcm/e2997d23-3868-43ed-ac22-3674d516c515

Put Leaf players in the title, and then follow that up by saying there is no way it happens.  However, as was conceded on the radio this morning, the Leafs might be in a position to offer the best package, so if they do, how do you not take it? 

 

[Frank E]

One of the theories floated out there is that currently Dorion is seen as a subpar GM, so other GM's don't want to "lose" a deal with him.

I'm sure there's some of that, but I also think teams feel that have Ottawa in a position of weakness. The perception is that they basically have to move Karlsson, or they'll lose him for nothing next summer. Given that they feel they have the superior bargaining position, why would they offer up their best assets?

It's not Ottawa that you're bidding against though, it's the other teams.

My point was that once you've got 2 interested parties, the position that Ottawa is in is less relevant than the position that the other party is in.  So if you are indeed looking at Karlsson as an important addition, and the other team is as well, then Ottawa will just allow you and the other team to outbid each other, which obviously can take some time.

If you are indifferent about adding Karlsson, and you're really only interested if you can get him on the cheap, then I would agree that your offer probably won't be that great.  I wouldn't categorize you as being "interested".  That's what I meant by 2 "interested" teams.

I find it crazy that not enough teams wouldn't be "interested" in acquiring Karlsson, but I'm guessing that he'll only go if they give him a $11m X 8 extension as part of the deal.  Although I'll acknowledge that's a ton of cap space, and he has injury questions marks around him.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Any team is essentially trading for Erik Karlsson for one year at $6.5M, and an 8 year deal instead of 7.  At Karlsson's age, 7 years is enough.  Karlsson still has control of where he wants to go, and for how much, the same as he will next July 1. 

So what is a team really trading for?  A one year rental really. 

 

[Kin]

It's not Ottawa that you're bidding against though, it's the other teams.

My point was that once you've got 2 interested parties, the position that Ottawa is in is less relevant than the position that the other party is in.  So if you are indeed looking at Karlsson as an important addition, and the other team is as well, then Ottawa will just allow you and the other team to outbid each other, which obviously can take some time.

If you are indifferent about adding Karlsson, and you're really only interested if you can get him on the cheap, then I would agree that your offer probably won't be that great.  I wouldn't categorize you as being "interested".  That's what I meant by 2 "interested" teams.

I find it crazy that not enough teams wouldn't be "interested" in acquiring Karlsson, but I'm guessing that he'll only go if they give him a $11m X 8 extension as part of the deal.  Although I'll acknowledge that's a ton of cap space, and he has injury questions marks around him.

I think there's a pretty wide gulf of territory between a team being so interested in adding him that they're willing to pay virtually any price and being casually indifferent.

The truth is that when star players of and around UFA age get moved the returns on them are pretty often less than expected. It doesn't happen much but when it does...I mean, Thornton, Pronger, Richards, Kovalchuk, Hossa...none of those guys got moved for high end A+ prospects.

 

[bustaheims]

It's not Ottawa that you're bidding against though, it's the other teams.

My point was that once you've got 2 interested parties, the position that Ottawa is in is less relevant than the position that the other party is in.  So if you are indeed looking at Karlsson as an important addition, and the other team is as well, then Ottawa will just allow you and the other team to outbid each other, which obviously can take some time.

Trades don't really work that way, though. As Nik pointed out, big name players haven't brought in the A+ prospects, because teams don't get into escalating bidding wars. They very much take the trading team's position into account and cap what they're willing to give up - and they know that's what other teams are doing, too. They have a good sense of what other teams are willing to offer, and they know they don't have to offer up their A+ pieces to pull ahead when no one else is willing to do that, either.

 

[Frank E]

It's not Ottawa that you're bidding against though, it's the other teams.

My point was that once you've got 2 interested parties, the position that Ottawa is in is less relevant than the position that the other party is in.  So if you are indeed looking at Karlsson as an important addition, and the other team is as well, then Ottawa will just allow you and the other team to outbid each other, which obviously can take some time.

If you are indifferent about adding Karlsson, and you're really only interested if you can get him on the cheap, then I would agree that your offer probably won't be that great.  I wouldn't categorize you as being "interested".  That's what I meant by 2 "interested" teams.

I find it crazy that not enough teams wouldn't be "interested" in acquiring Karlsson, but I'm guessing that he'll only go if they give him a $11m X 8 extension as part of the deal.  Although I'll acknowledge that's a ton of cap space, and he has injury questions marks around him.

I think there's a pretty wide gulf of territory between a team being so interested in adding him that they're willing to pay virtually any price and being casually indifferent.

The truth is that when star players of and around UFA age get moved the returns on them are pretty often less than expected. It doesn't happen much but when it does...I mean, Thornton, Pronger, Richards, Kovalchuk, Hossa...none of those guys got moved for high end A+ prospects.

Sure, but I go back to my initial statement, I doubt everyone low-balled Ottawa because they're afraid of "losing" a Karlsson trade because of some feelings about Dorien's ability to do his job.  I doubt all the offers were low-balls at all.

If the teams are concerned about his health, in combination with a $11m X 8 commitment, then maybe the offers are indeed reasonable.  Maybe Ottawa's expectations are too high, maybe ours are as well.

 

[Coco-puffs]

It's not Ottawa that you're bidding against though, it's the other teams.

My point was that once you've got 2 interested parties, the position that Ottawa is in is less relevant than the position that the other party is in.  So if you are indeed looking at Karlsson as an important addition, and the other team is as well, then Ottawa will just allow you and the other team to outbid each other, which obviously can take some time.

If you are indifferent about adding Karlsson, and you're really only interested if you can get him on the cheap, then I would agree that your offer probably won't be that great.  I wouldn't categorize you as being "interested".  That's what I meant by 2 "interested" teams.

I find it crazy that not enough teams wouldn't be "interested" in acquiring Karlsson, but I'm guessing that he'll only go if they give him a $11m X 8 extension as part of the deal.  Although I'll acknowledge that's a ton of cap space, and he has injury questions marks around him.

I think there's a pretty wide gulf of territory between a team being so interested in adding him that they're willing to pay virtually any price and being casually indifferent.

The truth is that when star players of and around UFA age get moved the returns on them are pretty often less than expected. It doesn't happen much but when it does...I mean, Thornton, Pronger, Richards, Kovalchuk, Hossa...none of those guys got moved for high end A+ prospects.

Kovalchuk and Hossa were deadline rentals with no contract extension in hand.  Not an apples to apples comparison.

Richards returned 5th overall pick Brayden Schenn.  I'd consider him an A+ prospect at the time.

Thornton wasn't even really shopped.  They just wanted to move him as far away as possible it seemed. 

Pronger trades didn't include A+ prospects (although Smid was 9th overall pick) but the haul included multiple 1st round picks in addition. 

I do agree with you for the most part, its hard to get an A+ prospect back for even the best players in the league because one is cost controlled and the other costs significant money against your cap.  That said, I still think Ottawa can hold onto Karlsson for as many days or weeks as possible and still get the return they want.

 

[Frank E]

It's not Ottawa that you're bidding against though, it's the other teams.

My point was that once you've got 2 interested parties, the position that Ottawa is in is less relevant than the position that the other party is in.  So if you are indeed looking at Karlsson as an important addition, and the other team is as well, then Ottawa will just allow you and the other team to outbid each other, which obviously can take some time.

Trades don't really work that way, though. As Nik pointed out, big name players haven't brought in the A+ prospects, because teams don't get into escalating bidding wars. They very much take the trading team's position into account and cap what they're willing to give up - and they know that's what other teams are doing, too. They have a good sense of what other teams are willing to offer, and they know they don't have to offer up their A+ pieces to pull ahead when no one else is willing to do that, either.

I don't think you can paint all trade situations or circumstances, in terms of how they go down, with the same brush.

Secondly, I'm not debating what the player should bring.  I'm saying that I doubt all the offers were "low balls", which I'm assuming takes into account what the market value for Karlsson is.

 

[Kin]

Richards returned 5th overall pick Brayden Schenn.  I'd consider him an A+ prospect at the time.

I was actually referring to Brad Richards and his trade to Dallas.

Thornton wasn't even really shopped.  They just wanted to move him as far away as possible it seemed.

Sure, but pretty clearly San Jose stood firm and still refused to give away the store for him. Was it because they were indifferent to adding him? Or that they knew Boston was a motivated seller? 

I do agree with you for the most part, its hard to get an A+ prospect back for even the best players in the league because one is cost controlled and the other costs significant money against your cap.  That said, I still think Ottawa can hold onto Karlsson for as many days or weeks as possible and still get the return they want.

I doubt it. Remember one of the things that I think is probably a pretty big deal in Ottawa right now is the perception that the franchise is a complete mess. I really don't think they want to compound that by having every single media inquiry, every article, every talk radio segment being about the fact that probably the best player in the history of the franchise is a guy they're lowballing and driving out of town. I think that even if it means a less than ideal return you want this thing to be over and dealt with.

That's what I think informs things like the Thornton and Pronger returns and even the Mike Richards one now that you mention it(I wouldn't say Schenn was a A+ prospect and he certainly wasn't the best young piece LA had to offer). When teams want to move on from a star player, for whatever reason, they want to get that over with. They don't want to drag it out and make what's already an unpleasant situation worse.

 

[Kin]

If the teams are concerned about his health, in combination with a $11m X 8 commitment, then maybe the offers are indeed reasonable.  Maybe Ottawa's expectations are too high, maybe ours are as well.

Well, first of all, that may be lowballing the potential financial commitment. Karlsson isn't Doughty here, interested in giving a manageable deal to the only franchise he's ever known. If he was then a 10 million per year offer, as Ottawa reportedly gave him wouldn't be seen as an insulting ploy clearly made just so the team could say they made an offer.

But more to the point I still think Ottawa's position as a motivated seller will inform each team equally and it will continue to be a significant factor in what gets offered.

 

[bustaheims]

Secondly, I'm not debating what the player should bring.  I'm saying that I doubt all the offers were "low balls", which I'm assuming takes into account what the market value for Karlsson is.

Well, in that case, I think you're overestimating Karlsson's actual market value. While fans may think he should bring in A+ prospects, it would appear as though GMs around the league disagree - and, they're responsible for setting the market.

 

[Frank E]

If the teams are concerned about his health, in combination with a $11m X 8 commitment, then maybe the offers are indeed reasonable.  Maybe Ottawa's expectations are too high, maybe ours are as well.

Well, first of all, that may be lowballing the potential financial commitment. Karlsson isn't Doughty here, interested in giving a manageable deal to the only franchise he's ever known. If he was then a 10 million per year offer, as Ottawa reportedly gave him wouldn't be seen as an insulting ploy clearly made just so the team could say they made an offer.

But more to the point I still think Ottawa's position as a motivated seller will inform each team equally and it will continue to be a significant factor in what gets offered.

So, just a couple of opinions on this...

1.  I was just using $11m as the example, but whatever the amount is, it's a big commitment.  I'm left wondering if indeed Karlsson wants out of Ottawa, and his demands become an impediment to a deal, that he doesn't adjust his new deal $$ demands accordingly.

2.  I think your statement that Ottawa's position will inform each team equally is why competing offers may come about:  the player is get'able.  The reason that I think that Ottawa is being patient might be that GMs might need time in rounding up their ownership group to get permission to make a $90m commitment to one guy, especially in July.

 

[Kin]

So, just a couple of opinions on this...

1.  I was just using $11m as the example, but whatever the amount is, it's a big commitment.  I'm left wondering if indeed Karlsson wants out of Ottawa, and his demands become an impediment to a deal, that he doesn't adjust his new deal $$ demands accordingly.

That strikes me as unlikely given the reality that Ottawa can't bring him back realistically and he's a year out from free agency. I think Karlsson would rather play out the year than sign a deal he doesn't like.

Either way, like you acknowledge, the number does impact the offer. Karlsson is undoubtably better than someone like Sergachev but is he 7-10 million dollars better?

2.  I think your statement that Ottawa's position will inform each team equally is why competing offers may come about:  the player is get'able. 

I don't really understand that. Teams are going to peg what Karlsson is worth to them and make their best offer along those lines. Karlsson is no more "get'able" than anyone else a team is open to move. The thing that makes Karlsson unique is that Ottawa almost certainly has to move him. That's what's going to drive prices down no matter who is making the offer.

 

[Frank E]

Secondly, I'm not debating what the player should bring.  I'm saying that I doubt all the offers were "low balls", which I'm assuming takes into account what the market value for Karlsson is.

Well, in that case, I think you're overestimating Karlsson's actual market value. While fans may think he should bring in A+ prospects, it would appear as though GMs around the league disagree - and, they're responsible for setting the market.

I can't reconcile the 2 bolded statements. 

 

[Frank E]

That strikes me as unlikely given the reality that Ottawa can't bring him back realistically and he's a year out from free agency. I think Karlsson would rather play out the year than sign a deal he doesn't like.

Either way, like you acknowledge, the number does impact the offer. Karlsson is undoubtably better than someone like Sergachev but is he 7-10 million dollars better?

And I guess I'm of the opinion that he'd rather sign a deal for a little less than return to Ottawa.

I don't really understand that. Teams are going to peg what Karlsson is worth to them and make their best offer along those lines. Karlsson is no more "get'able" than anyone else a team is open to move. The thing that makes Karlsson unique is that Ottawa almost certainly has to move him. That's what's going to drive prices down no matter who is making the offer.

What I meant was that it's not a situation that they're trying to pry one of the best d-men in the league out of a team.  Karlsson is going to leave Ottawa, and somebody is going to land him this summer, in all likelihood.  That's what I meant by get'able...you belly up to the table, and you can have a game changing guy on your roster this fall.

Guys like Karlsson don't become available like this very often.

 

[Kin]

And I guess I'm of the opinion that he'd rather sign a deal for a little less than return to Ottawa.

Sorry, you think there's a chance in the world that if Karlsson doesn't sign a deal that facilitates a trade to Ottawa's liking that Ottawa brings him back?

Because that's bonkers. Ottawa isn't going to risk losing Karlsson for nothing and they're not going to watch his value to them decline every day he's there while ruining whatever positive thing they're going to try to build on the ashes of what the had. If Karlsson isn't willing to sign an extension with whoever's deal they like best, they're not going to take a massive loss just to spite him, they'll just start shopping Karlsson on the basis of him being a one year guy.

And it's not a little less we're talking about. The difference between potentially a 13 million dollar a year deal from Vegas or Dallas and a 11 million dollar deal from San Jose is roughly 22 or 23 million dollars in his pocket.

Guys like Karlsson don't become available like this very often.

But that's the whole point. Guys like this aren't available. When they are, it's for a reason. That's why, typically, returns are bad. If you call up Edmonton to try and put something together for McDavid, they're not going to ask you to put together your best offer so they can think it over, they're hanging up on you. He's "available" because Ottawa has their backs to the wall and they're trying to make the most of a bad situation.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/BoltProspects/status/1014924549043998720

;D

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://twitter.com/travisyost/status/1014966604826738689

Just when you thought you gained the upper hand.  Two really good teams will be gone AGAIN in the 1st and 2nd rounds respectively come next spring.