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Ranking Prospects 2022-2023

Looking at the 2019, 2020, 2021 drafts and really the only misfire the Leafs had with a top-60ish pick was Amirov. Sandin, Durzi, Robertson, Hirvonen, Niemela, and Knies all seem like pretty great picks, and arguably maybe the best players available at the time they were picked even with hindsight. That feels like a pretty big accomplishment actually.

I wouldn't trade Sandin for any of the NHLers who were taken in his range after him (Veleno, Romanov, McLeod).

Durzi, who I didn't love as a prospect although that's probably just because I was jaded about overagers at that point, just put up 27 points in 46 games in his rookie season. The only player taken after him in the entire draft who has put up numbers that are as impressive as that is Yegor Sharangovich and he was picked way later in the 5th round.

Even just looking at a guy like Robertson, who has obviously had some injury set backs, I don't see anyone obvious who was picked after him and has played NHL games that I'd trade him for.

Hirvonen and Niemela, especially the latter, have both improved their post-draft stock so far and for what it's worth there's really nobody taken after that who jump out as a missed opportunity.

Knies is generally considered as somebody who would move up into 1st round territory if there was an early redraft attempt and is arguably our top prospect at this time.

We haven't had any steals from the later portions of the draft but I also think we just need to be a little more realistic because even teams that draft really well often get shutout there. But for what it's worth players like Abruzzese and Holmberg and knocking on the door now.

I understand the idea of wanting to move to a slightly more "safer" draft philosophy because the team as it stands right now kinda needs young players sooner rather than later (and it feels like the Leafs agreed based on the Fraser Minten selection) but I think their drafting is getting knocked a little more than it should be right now.
 
I mean, I don't think anyone has been particularly negative about those drafts in large part because most of us know it's a little too early to judge any draft before 5 or 6 years out. We've taken shots at the Leafs prospect depth(mainly related to their lack of picks) and I've criticized the strategy that led to a bunch of those picks but even that's a little mitigated by the fact that in this last draft they seem to have steered slightly into the course correction I suggested.

Beyond that, I think there's an awful lot of online talk that generally speaking is Pro-Dubas and his methodology which is obviously then going to hype up the guys we haven't seen taken as a result of that methodology. How Knies, Hirvonen and Niemala "seem" is fairly unconvincing at the moment and beyond that probably the best case for Dubas is the guy he traded away.

I'm 100% open to the idea that some of Dubas' drafts might prove really good and yield some very solid NHL players but I think the reality is that there's a tremendous pressure on that to not just happen but happen fairly spectacularly and soon in large part to compensate for some of the other bad decisions Dubas has made. 
 
I'd echo Carlton here mostly. Another potential miss is in the 2019 7th round when we traded up for Kalle Loponen with Dustin Wolf on the board (214th overall to Calgary). Who picks short goalies though?

There is a significant change in draft strategy from 2015 | 2016-2018 | 2019 to present; I'm lumping 2018 in with 2016-17 because while Dubas was at the helm, he was inheriting Hunter's amateur scouting department and their finalized draft list one month before the draft.

Further to my previous point, when Dubas was relegated to only handling Marlies stuff, he added Hyman (sort of a gimme, but developed a clunky grinder into a 1st line complementary winger), Trever Moore, Mason Marchment, Justin Holl, Martin Marincin (hi Frank!) all for basically free outside the draft. Dubas also tried to pursue Point and Coleman and Gourde much earlier in their careers but Lou didn't want to (according to Bourne).
 
For the latest draft, I wonder a bit about Owen Beck vs Fraser Minten. Very similar profiles (smart, two-way center, 'safe' floors) to Shane Wright where you can conceivably develop some additional weapons on that platform (improved shots/deception).
 
Nik said:
I'm 100% open to the idea that some of Dubas' drafts might prove really good and yield some very solid NHL players but I think the reality is that there's a tremendous pressure on that to not just happen but happen fairly spectacularly and soon in large part to compensate for some of the other bad decisions Dubas has made. 

Yeah I can definitely agree with that. The team will definitely need some of the Dubas picks to be playing in the NHL in 23/24, especially with virtually all of our non-big 4 forwards being UFAs at the moment then. Knies and Robertson in particular will need to be contributing players.
 
TLN:
16. Curtis Douglas

Over the course of the season, Douglas became more and more fluent in his skates. He even got faster as the season went on too. This will be something that Toronto will continue to work on with him because if he can become a strong skater with his size, there?ll be plenty he can do at the NHL level.

A really fun boom or bust bet to make; high, high chance of bust, but if he goes boom, it'll be glorious. At virtually no risk (one SPC slot) and no asset cost upfront, this one's a no brainer.
 
TLN:
15. Dmitry Ovchinnikov

A somewhat disappointing D+2 after a promising D+1. Ovchinnikov got some KHL time but it was mostly on the bench. With his KHL contract done, Ovchinnikov has more of an opportunity in Toronto (or maybe Newfoundland, to acclimate to the smaller ice and find ways to impact the game off the puck while developing more strength so he can hold the puck more. As a distributor by nature, the dev team will probably want him to expand his comfort zone with taking his own shot (it?s decent) and influencing his linemates when they?re not as offensively inclined.
 
TLN:
14. Mikhail Abramov

Another promising D+1 prospect sort of hit a wall in D+2 after making the jump to the Marlies, which is natural (and the Marlies were a mess in many respects), especially with the pandemic situation throwing a lot of the season's rhythm off and the adjustment to the new game speed and opponent size. There's a boom/bust element to prospects like Abramov (and Ovchinnikov/Miettienen/Der Arguchintsev/Abbruzzese/Voit/Hirvonen, etc) if they can't hang reliably on the bottom lines or produce effectively alongside the stars in the top lines. The Leafs pipeline is saturated with this player type, so it'll be nice if one or two of these guys pop off.
 
I like SDA. Saw a few Marlies games this season and kid can move. He had a pretty good year with the Marlies. Same with Abramov. Good first years after the covid shutdown. Let's see what they can do this coming season. 
 
Top 25 Under 25 is up for voting now

This is my sloppy ranking
2022 RankPlayer
1Auston Matthews
2Matthew Knies
3Rasmus Sandin
4Nicholas Robertson
5Topi Niemel?
6Timothy Liljegren
7Fraser Minten
8Ty Voit
9William Villeneuve
10Roni Hirvonen
11Joey Anderson
12Nicholas Moldenhauer
13Victor Mete
14Pontus Holmberg
15Nicholas Abruzzese
16Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
17Mikhail Abramov
18Mikko Kokkonen
19Veeti Miettinen
20Dmitri Ovchinnikov
21Alex Steeves
22Curtis Douglas
23Ryan Tverberg
24Joe Miller
25Joseph Woll
26Mac Hollowell
27Dennis Hildeby
28Max Ellis
29Filip Kr?l
30Axel Rindell
31Michael Koster
32Braeden Kressler
33Pavel Gogolev
34Nikita Grebenkin
35Vyacheslav Peksa
36Artur Akhtyamov
37Brandon Lisowsky
38Kalle Loponen
39John Fusco
40Wyatt Schingoethe
41Semyon Kizimov
42Ryan O?Connell
43Vladislav Kara
44Nikolai Chebykin
DNR (5)Rodion Amirov

I don't know why I put Moldenhauer so high (among a few other questionable decisions), but the numerical ranking structure for tiers of players in different stages of development and my predilections between valuing Floor vs Ceiling are probably embedded in there somehow.
 
herman said:
Top 25 Under 25 is up for voting now

This is my sloppy ranking
2022 RankPlayer
1Auston Matthews
2Matthew Knies
3Rasmus Sandin
4Nicholas Robertson
5Topi Niemel?
6Timothy Liljegren
7Fraser Minten
8Ty Voit
9William Villeneuve
10Roni Hirvonen
11Joey Anderson
12Nicholas Moldenhauer
13Victor Mete
14Pontus Holmberg
15Nicholas Abruzzese
16Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
17Mikhail Abramov
18Mikko Kokkonen
19Veeti Miettinen
20Dmitri Ovchinnikov
21Alex Steeves
22Curtis Douglas
23Ryan Tverberg
24Joe Miller
25Joseph Woll
26Mac Hollowell
27Dennis Hildeby
28Max Ellis
29Filip Kr?l
30Axel Rindell
31Michael Koster
32Braeden Kressler
33Pavel Gogolev
34Nikita Grebenkin
35Vyacheslav Peksa
36Artur Akhtyamov
37Brandon Lisowsky
38Kalle Loponen
39John Fusco
40Wyatt Schingoethe
41Semyon Kizimov
42Ryan O?Connell
43Vladislav Kara
44Nikolai Chebykin
DNR (5)Rodion Amirov

I don't know why I put Moldenhauer so high (among a few other questionable decisions), but the numerical ranking structure for tiers of players in different stages of development and my predilections between valuing Floor vs Ceiling are probably embedded in there somehow.

Do you expect the race between #1 and #2 to be close?
 
I think there's a reasonable chance that Liljegren may rank higher than Sandin on the list, especially since traditionally they put greater value on pro experience, and I think Tim had a better season last year (albeit, a lot of that had to do with Sandin's injuries...).
 
louisstamos said:
I think there's a reasonable chance that Liljegren may rank higher than Sandin on the list, especially since traditionally they put greater value on pro experience, and I think Tim had a better season last year (albeit, a lot of that had to do with Sandin's injuries...).

I like them both; they're different players with different roles but lumped together in comparison by age, draft position, and country of origin. I think people will naturally rate Sandin higher because it's easier to gauge value on the offense side of the game. When you notice a defenseman for his defense, it's usually a negative reason (Brodie chomping up 1v2s notwithstanding).

Liljegren is the more defensive of the two, great offensive tools in breaking out pucks and stretch passes, but his creativity in the OZ is relatively plain. Sandin is a puck distributing smartie pants in the OZ, and less seasoned in DZ defense. They both are on track to becoming good two-way defensemen.
 
TLN:
13. Mikko Kokkonen

He's a bit like Muzzin-lite and brings a different element to the prospect pipeline. His numbers have plateau'd but it will be interesting to see how he fares full time with the Marlies on the smaller ice. He lacks outright footspeed, so this might actually help him close off entries and opposing offense a bit faster. He'll need a puck moving buddy (Topiiiiiii) as he's generally more of a safety.
 
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