• For users coming over from tmlfans.ca your username will remain the same but you will need to use the password reset feature (check your spam folder) on the login page in order to set your password. If you encounter issues, email Rick couchmanrick@gmail.com

Ranking Prospects 2024-25

Very early cut of my tiers (no particular order within) of my projections with the limited current information

NHL Top-6/Pair/Starter:
Matthew Knies
Easton Cowan

NHL Middle-6/Pair/Backup:
Nick Robertson
Dennis Hildeby
Nikita Grebyonkin
Fraser Minten
Ben Danford
Artur Akhtyamov

Tweener NHL Bottom-6/Pair/ AHL Starter:
Ryan Tverberg
Topi Niemela
Noah Chadwick
Jacob Quillan
Cade Webber
Vyacheslav Peksa
Nick Moldenhauer
Miroslav Holinka
Roni Hirvonen
Mikko Kokkonen
William Villenueve
Sam McCue

Outside of NHL:
Timofei Obvintsev
Victor Johansson
Alex Plesovskikh
Ty Voit
Braeden Kressler
Hudson Malinoski
Joe Miller
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
Mike Koster

Very Outside the NHL:
Matt Lahey
Nathan Mayes
Wyatt Schingoethe
Semyon Kizimov
John Fusco
 
https://x.com/sunhornby/status/1808601754541699550
Okay we need a documentary of these two throughout the season
 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/sunhornby/status/1808601754541699550
Okay we need a documentary of these two throughout the season
Click to expand...

I hope they're both in Cincinnati to start. It makes sense to have a Hildeby/Murray duo with the Marlies anyway (alongside an AHL-deal 3rd goalie). I know Peksa's already been here for a year but I'm sure having a fellow countryman alongside you will make the transition to North America a lot of easier for both him and Akhtyamov. Some friendly competition for playing time there too could benefit them both.
 
herman said:
Very early cut of my tiers (no particular order within) of my projections with the limited current information

NHL Top-6/Pair/Starter:
Matthew Knies
Easton Cowan

NHL Middle-6/Pair/Backup:
Nick Robertson
Dennis Hildeby
Nikita Grebyonkin
Fraser Minten
Ben Danford
Artur Akhtyamov

Tweener NHL Bottom-6/Pair/ AHL Starter:
Ryan Tverberg
Topi Niemela
Noah Chadwick
Jacob Quillan
Cade Webber
Vyacheslav Peksa
Nick Moldenhauer
Miroslav Holinka
Roni Hirvonen
Mikko Kokkonen
William Villenueve
Sam McCue

Outside of NHL:
Timofei Obvintsev
Victor Johansson
Alex Plesovskikh
Ty Voit
Braeden Kressler
Hudson Malinoski
Joe Miller
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
Mike Koster

Very Outside the NHL:
Matt Lahey
Nathan Mayes
Wyatt Schingoethe
Semyon Kizimov
John Fusco
Click to expand...

I think you are missing Steeves who I had as a tweener
I didn't have Sam McCue as a tweener - had him outside.
Otherwise, pretty close.

In fairness to them, a bunch of them I've either never seen or barely seen.
 
I know next to nothing but a good 3rd liner needs to supply some offense and it doesn?t look like Minten has shown enough in junior.  I?m thinking he tops out as a good 4th line center.
 
cw said:
I think you are missing Steeves who I had as a tweener
I didn't have Sam McCue as a tweener - had him outside.
Otherwise, pretty close.

In fairness to them, a bunch of them I've either never seen or barely seen.
Click to expand...

I was going to add a disclaimer that if I missed anyone it was because he didn?t really matter. I?ll throw Steeves into the tweener pile too. Sam McCue I am reading as similar to Tverberg on the left side. There?s always room on an NHL team for that player template.
 
princedpw said:
I know next to nothing but a good 3rd liner needs to supply some offense and it doesn?t look like Minten has shown enough in junior.  I?m thinking he tops out as a good 4th line center.
Click to expand...

I?m going to have to refer you to the statistical profiles of Anthony Cirelli and Adam Henrique. It?s very true Minten does not have that top end offensive creativity; so very few of the draft picks actually have this, and most of them have some other deficiencies that keep them off the NHL rosters eventually (Seth Griffith!).

I classify Minten as one of those play drivers that do it through kettling the play (or Jezzball, if you?re of a certain vintage). Extremely intelligent and tactical off-puck support, great forechecking instincts, minimal puck handling time, but gets the puck to the dangerous ice consistently for his team. If Minten refines his agility a bit more, builds a quicker trigger on his extremely heavy shot, and experience develops his game speed processing, I am projecting a shutdown centre in the middle 6 that is a counter-attack specialist. Berube will love him.
 
herman said:
I'm going to have to refer you to the statistical profiles of Anthony Cirelli and Adam Henrique.
Click to expand...

I mean both of these guys had considerably better D+2 offensive seasons than Minten did. Cirelli had 64 points in 51 games, a 1.25 PPG rate. Henrique had 77 in 54 games, a 1.42 PPG rate. Not sure they're the best examples. Minten only scored 48 points in 43 games, a 1.12 PPG rate which was actually lower than his D+1 scoring pace (1.17 PPG).

Now the flip side is there's context those numbers don't show. He got traded to the Blades who had a 20-year old that led the WHL in assists and was top-10 in points in the 1C spot on the team. That likely took away some offensive opportunities for him, especially on the powerplay where it looks like he didn't play on the top unit. Minten only had 5 goals and 6 assists on the PP this season. In comparison Wong, the 20-year old undrafted top-10 scorer, had 5 goals and a whopping 33 assists. If you remove PP points the gap between Wong's 1.49 PPG rate and Minten's 1.12 PPG rate is dropped to just 0.93 vs. 0.86. Minten goes from having the 5th highest PPG rate on the team to jumping to 2nd when taking out PP points for everyone.

Flip-flip side is well you would have liked Minten to be good enough to force himself onto Saskatoon's top PP unit. Obviously I can't really answer that well enough but there's probably chemistry or tactical reasons for that usage. It looks like Wong was the playmaker there with his massive assist totals. Tanner Molendyk, 1st round pick of Nashville, as the point guy. And then 3 guys with pretty big goal totals including of course sorta-Leaf Brandon Lisowsky and another guy who had 50 goals in 66 games.

So it's a tricky one. I don't love his offensive progression (or regression) in his D+2 season, but also if he had stayed on Kamloops all season or been traded to a different team his point totals would have likely been considerably better.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
herman said:
I'm going to have to refer you to the statistical profiles of Anthony Cirelli and Adam Henrique.
Click to expand...

I mean both of these guys had considerably better D+2 offensive seasons than Minten did. Cirelli had 64 points in 51 games, a 1.25 PPG rate. Henrique had 77 in 54 games, a 1.42 PPG rate. Not sure they're the best examples. Minten only scored 48 points in 43 games, a 1.12 PPG rate which was actually lower than his D+1 scoring pace (1.17 PPG).
Click to expand...

You're right in that the numbers are not quite in the same tier. and context does play a huge role in that. Adam Henrique was centering Taylor Hall (D+0) and Eric Wellwood that big bump season. Cirelli joined a stacked Erie Otters group (DeBrincat/Strome/Raddysh). I don't think Minten's teams had anything like that.

Minten jumped through the Leafs, the Blazers, the Blades, and the WJC team in one season.
 
herman said:
You're right in that the numbers are not quite in the same tier. and context does play a huge role in that. Adam Henrique was centering Taylor Hall (D+0) and Eric Wellwood that big bump season. Cirelli joined a stacked Erie Otters group (DeBrincat/Strome/Raddysh). I don't think Minten's teams had anything like that.
Click to expand...

Well Saskatoon was very good this season, they finished 1st in the entire league in the regular season. It's just he was brought in specifically to be more of a secondary piece on a stacked team.
 
Frank E said:
He's Alyn McCauley.
Click to expand...

I was not expecting this but Alyn McCauley had a monster D+2 season in the OHL: 112 points in 50 games. Wasn't good enough for the OHL scoring lead though as he finished 3rd behind a couple decent players: Marc Savard and Joe Thornton.
 
herman said:
cw said:
I think you are missing Steeves who I had as a tweener
I didn't have Sam McCue as a tweener - had him outside.
Otherwise, pretty close.

In fairness to them, a bunch of them I've either never seen or barely seen.
Click to expand...

I was going to add a disclaimer that if I missed anyone it was because he didn?t really matter. I?ll throw Steeves into the tweener pile too. Sam McCue I am reading as similar to Tverberg on the left side. There?s always room on an NHL team for that player template.
Click to expand...

I wasn't sure how to assess them in the groupings.
Like he has before, Steeves may get a callup to the Leafs. His chances of sticking are not great as there are so many better wingers ahead of him. He's trying to go from a scoring role in the AHL to a checking role in the NHL.
But in the NHL, on a bottom feeder, he might grab a spot. He's 24. He can score some. 6', ~200lbs - ok size. Not a bad skater. Defense can be learned.

I didn't find much on McClue. I saw one brief video of him playing - scoring/mucking points. A couple of scant scouting reports - both questioned his skating. I have no personal idea. The fact that you see something in him is one of the better and more credible things I've learned about him.
 
cw said:
I didn't find much on McClue. I saw one brief video of him playing - scoring/mucking points. A couple of scant scouting reports - both questioned his skating. I have no personal idea. The fact that you see something in him is one of the better and more credible things I've learned about him.
Click to expand...

whoa whoa whoa, slow down lol; I am far from credible! Some of my shine to him might be from watching his brother Max, while I was watching the Knights for Cowan. Their games are described in similar ways.

I just think Sam McCue fits the mold of the type of player that can pick up NHL minutes as an energy winger (a la Ryan Tverberg). Compared to say... SDA and Alex Steeves and Ty Voit and Joe Miller, or Seth Griffith and Jeremy Bracco, who need a lot to go right to have the offensive pop to warrant the harder to earn lineup spots.

For me, the players' floor is more valuable in the depth slots than their potential offensive ceilings until their performance hits a certain critical level (Marner, Nylander). And the floor is very dependent on things like size/strength, speed, and internal motivation.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
herman said:
You're right in that the numbers are not quite in the same tier. and context does play a huge role in that. Adam Henrique was centering Taylor Hall (D+0) and Eric Wellwood that big bump season. Cirelli joined a stacked Erie Otters group (DeBrincat/Strome/Raddysh). I don't think Minten's teams had anything like that.
Click to expand...

Well Saskatoon was very good this season, they finished 1st in the entire league in the regular season. It's just he was brought in specifically to be more of a secondary piece on a stacked team.
Click to expand...

Yeah, they were very good. I just think season to season ranking is very relative. I don't know that the Blades had any blue chip NHL prospects (Molendyk on D probably?), whereas Henrique and Cirelli clearly had a higher tide of offense to participate in.
 
princedpw said:
I know next to nothing but a good 3rd liner needs to supply some offense and it doesn?t look like Minten has shown enough in junior.  I?m thinking he tops out as a good 4th line center.
Click to expand...

Adam Brooks had 120 pts in his draft year and 130 pts in the following year. Age 28. He's still in the AHL. There's a whole bunch like him. Its one aspect or characteristic.

Minten was a young 18 year old when drafted which affects how they perceive his stats. He's a decent size. Strong on his skates. Good at faceoffs. Very sound defensively. They're putting letters on him wherever he goes. There do not seem to be any other questions of his ability except scoring.

You look at checking centers like Lowry, Bonino, Eller, Laughton, Colton - (some of those Cup winners in that role) - a bunch have .36 to .5 NHL ppg over the last 8 years (centers in NHL with 200 gp, 48% faceoff win%) and were not all gawdy scorers at lower levels. Minten's 1.0x ppg in the WHL could easily translate into .36 to .5 ppg in the NHL. Wickenheiser talked about how they're working on improving his scoring for the NHL with him. They cannot bestow God given talent on him but they can move the needle in development.

I think projecting him as a 3rd line center is not unreasonable. To me, he's more than a 4th and less than a likely 2nd because of his scoring.
 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/mat_sheridan8/status/1808887496505254004
This is the best
Click to expand...

https://x.com/koshtorontosun/status/1808943959982358927
MAKE MORE MUZZINS
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top