Ranking Prospects 2024-25

[cw]

Brandon Lisowsky, whose rights expired June 1 and did not get re-drafted this weekend, is back for dev camp.

Edit: aged out of the draft now and eligible to be signed as a UFA

https://twitter.com/kyle_cush/status/1809265615221207372

Wickenheiser said they really like his shot. He was very disappointed he didn't get an NHL deal.
They want to work on other parts of his game. I can't imagine him not being offered an AHL deal. Bellows went that route last year and Nashville signed him. He doesn't have Bellows pedigree and I'm sure the Leafs would have preferred to not develop NHLers for other clubs. Its a tougher road but at least he can see a path others have taken that worked out.

Their facilities and staff to help develop players has been attracting some players to sign or come to the development camp.

And he likely gets to keep playing with Minten on the Marlies. Unless he turns into a fire hydrant, 5'9" might hold him back from bottom-6 opportunities in the NHL, while a lot on offense needs to click in order to even sniff a top-6 job. He also occupies a relatively full ecological niche on the Marlies but his aforementioned shooting does help him standout amongst the Ty Voits and Roni Hirvonens.

https://twitter.com/brigstew86/status/1770652878631247940

5'9" might hold him back from bottom-6 opportunities in the NHL, while a lot on offense needs to click in order to even sniff a top-6 job.

That is a big part of it, I'm sure. 5'9" puck battle with a 6'2" forward that has longer reach and 30lbs of muscle on him - that's a real disadvantage.

Also, the GM that drafted him seemed to place more importance on skill and less importance on size isn't here anymore. His replacement seems to have a different vision about size in the NHL - seems to place a higher premium on it.

4.3% of the league is 5'9" or less among players who played 20 NHL games or more.
6% of the forwards are 5'9" or less among forwards who played 20 NHL games or more.
He is in tough to make it.

But he could help the Marlies as a top 6 shooter and if it doesn't work out, play in Europe.

Youtube Brandon Lisowsky Press Scrum at Leafs Dev't Camp

He's saying a lot of the right things but I think he's very sincere. Down to earth. No big ego. Knows who he is and is determined to learn what he needs to do. Unflappable. Loves the staff, the facilities and being where he is even though he was stung with no NHL contract. If he doesn't get an AHL deal, he's kind of "well, I'll just go back to Saskatoon and take another run at it as an over-ager". After hearing that, how could they not offer him an AHL contract? I was impressed. Guy deserves a chance because with that attitude, he's got some kind of a chance even if it outside. Good for him!

 

[herman]

[youtube]8tRGrmEDo7A[/youtube]
Fraser Minten talks about how the Leafs dev team manages junior prospects, and breaks down some game tape for his thought process behind the plays he makes.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/dalter/status/1809945867471708231

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1809945867471708231

https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/livestream/

 

[herman]

Hmm, might have to adopt Miroslav Holinka as the next fun prospect to bandwagon

 

[cw]

Did Cameron Rowe just shutout the whole White team in that shootout?
(I tuned in late ..)

EDIT: yeah, he did - about 20 shootout saves in a row. White team was not the most skilled.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/kyle_cush/status/1809990704229134800

 

[herman]

https://x.com/kyle_cush/status/1809991580054684055
They were clearly taking it a bit easy on the body given what happened at last year?s development camp when then-invitee Noah Dillingham leveled Roni Hirvonen with clean open ice hit that gave him a concussion.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/kyle_cush/status/1810056422262014013

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/kyle_cush/status/1810056422262014013

Good notes to read

 

[herman]

[youtube]pAb2CflRyNI[/youtube]

 

[herman]

He's Alyn McCauley.

I was not expecting this but Alyn McCauley had a monster D+2 season in the OHL: 112 points in 50 games. Wasn't good enough for the OHL scoring lead though as he finished 3rd behind a couple decent players: Marc Savard and Joe Thornton.

Every year adjusts my player template analysis, so here's my latest thing, for obvious reasons.

Help walk me off the ledge of this semi-hot take (or don't, because it's true): pure (perimeter) playmakers are overrated due to regular season performance and most cap-era Cup Finalists/Winners don't feature one in a prominent roster slot.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/PPPLeafs/status/1810298023001440653

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Every year adjusts my player template analysis, so here's my latest thing, for obvious reasons.

Help walk me off the ledge of this semi-hot take (or don't, because it's true): pure (perimeter) playmakers are overrated due to regular season performance and most cap-era Cup Finalists/Winners don't feature one in a prominent roster slot.

Oh no, you can't trick me into a Marner debate that easily. My self-imposed sabbatical on that remains in place.

 

[herman]

Oh no, you can't trick me into a Marner debate that easily. My self-imposed sabbatical on that remains in place.

Haha, it doesn't have to go in that direction, but it was definitely one of the player types favoured in Dubas-era drafts as it generally matched with the way he wanted the Leafs to play, and coincided with public scouting tendencies to evaluate through NHLe.

• Semyon Der Arguchintsev
• Mikhail Abramov
• Nick Abbruzzese
• Ty Voit
• Joe Miller

 

[IJustLurkHere]

He's Alyn McCauley.

I was not expecting this but Alyn McCauley had a monster D+2 season in the OHL: 112 points in 50 games. Wasn't good enough for the OHL scoring lead though as he finished 3rd behind a couple decent players: Marc Savard and Joe Thornton.

Every year adjusts my player template analysis, so here's my latest thing, for obvious reasons.

Help walk me off the ledge of this semi-hot take (or don't, because it's true): pure (perimeter) playmakers are overrated due to regular season performance and most cap-era Cup Finalists/Winners don't feature one in a prominent roster slot.

At risk of missing the point... I don't think that McCauley fits this narrative.

McCauley's 01-02 playoffs were probably the only time he really performed to his potential in the NHL with the Leafs (possibly the first half of the regular season back in Cujo's first year in Toronto). With Sundin injured, he stepped up and was an integral part of that Leafs team reaching the conference finals. His best regular season was with the Sharks. He finished third for the Selke.

So I'm not sure in what way McCauley becomes evidence that regular season specialising perimeter players don't exist on Cup contenders. If anything, that 20 goal defensive forward is exactly what the current Leafs would like to add.

McCauley was a great prospect in his time - CHL player of the year at one stage. Unfortunately concussions (and other injuries) got in the way. Serendipity matters. If any of our current prospects are Alyn McCauley II, I'm thrilled and just hope the hockey gods are kinder to their heads.

 

[herman]

He's Alyn McCauley.

I was not expecting this but Alyn McCauley had a monster D+2 season in the OHL: 112 points in 50 games. Wasn't good enough for the OHL scoring lead though as he finished 3rd behind a couple decent players: Marc Savard and Joe Thornton.

Every year adjusts my player template analysis, so here's my latest thing, for obvious reasons.

Help walk me off the ledge of this semi-hot take (or don't, because it's true): pure (perimeter) playmakers are overrated due to regular season performance and most cap-era Cup Finalists/Winners don't feature one in a prominent roster slot.

At risk of missing the point... I don't think that McCauley fits this narrative.

McCauley's 01-02 playoffs were probably the only time he really performed to his potential in the NHL with the Leafs (possibly the first half of the regular season back in Cujo's first year in Toronto). With Sundin injured, he stepped up and was an integral part of that Leafs team reaching the conference finals. His best regular season was with the Sharks. He finished third for the Selke.

So I'm not sure in what way McCauley becomes evidence that regular season specialising perimeter players don't exist on Cup contenders. If anything, that 20 goal defensive forward is exactly what the current Leafs would like to add.

McCauley was a great prospect in his time - CHL player of the year at one stage. Unfortunately concussions (and other injuries) got in the way. Serendipity matters. If any of our current prospects are Alyn McCauley II, I'm thrilled and just hope the hockey gods are kinder to their heads.

Sorry, I was mostly referring to Marc Savard and Joe Thornton. Savard has a Cup win 2011, but he did not feature in that run due to injuries. They put up gaudy point totals but ultimately, does their play translate in the playoffs?

I agree an Alyn McCauley type depth player gives the team a better chance to overmatch lower in the lineup.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

I was not expecting this but Alyn McCauley had a monster D+2 season in the OHL: 112 points in 50 games. Wasn't good enough for the OHL scoring lead though as he finished 3rd behind a couple decent players: Marc Savard and Joe Thornton.

Every year adjusts my player template analysis, so here's my latest thing, for obvious reasons.

Help walk me off the ledge of this semi-hot take (or don't, because it's true): pure (perimeter) playmakers are overrated due to regular season performance and most cap-era Cup Finalists/Winners don't feature one in a prominent roster slot.

At risk of missing the point... I don't think that McCauley fits this narrative.

...

So I'm not sure in what way McCauley becomes evidence that regular season specialising perimeter players don't exist on Cup contenders. If anything, that 20 goal defensive forward is exactly what the current Leafs would like to add.

...

Sorry, I was mostly referring to Marc Savard and Joe Thornton. Savard has a Cup win 2011, but he did not feature in that run due to injuries. They put up gaudy point totals but ultimately, does their play translate in the playoffs?

I agree an Alyn McCauley type depth player gives the team a better chance to overmatch lower in the lineup.

Feels like reaching. Biggest reason Savard didn't have bigger playoff numbers was he played most of his career on teams that didn't make the playoffs. Argue that's on him if you like, but it's a team game. Even if your take holds somewhat true, Savard in his 25 playoff games doesn't have the chance to adapt that Thornton gets in his 187.

Phil Kessel has 3 cups now (100 playoff games) after finding the right roles. Maybe there's an alternate universe where Marc Savard wound up on the San Jose Sharks as a supporting cast member and both Savard and Thornton have cups.

It's self evident to say that there are players who perform better than others when the refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs. The value of players changes. It's not a stretch to say that the teams who win will be those who have rosters maximising that changed value.

IMO it's a trap to try to definitively sort players into "playoff guys" and "not playoff guys". It's a moving target where the only time we get enough sample size to judge is when good "playoff guys" have the serendipity to land on good rosters full of other "playoff guys". It's easy to point to a roster and say "they didn't get it done. Must not have enough playoff guys." Hard to prove wrong, but not constructive. Fine for the intermission desk, not for the work of building a team.

Talented, motivated players can figure it out. If they get the chance.

Never did I ever think I'd write so many words in defence of Marc Savard.

 

[Redleaf]

I was not expecting this but Alyn McCauley had a monster D+2 season in the OHL: 112 points in 50 games. Wasn't good enough for the OHL scoring lead though as he finished 3rd behind a couple decent players: Marc Savard and Joe Thornton.

Every year adjusts my player template analysis, so here's my latest thing, for obvious reasons.

Help walk me off the ledge of this semi-hot take (or don't, because it's true): pure (perimeter) playmakers are overrated due to regular season performance and most cap-era Cup Finalists/Winners don't feature one in a prominent roster slot.

At risk of missing the point... I don't think that McCauley fits this narrative.

...

So I'm not sure in what way McCauley becomes evidence that regular season specialising perimeter players don't exist on Cup contenders. If anything, that 20 goal defensive forward is exactly what the current Leafs would like to add.

...

Sorry, I was mostly referring to Marc Savard and Joe Thornton. Savard has a Cup win 2011, but he did not feature in that run due to injuries. They put up gaudy point totals but ultimately, does their play translate in the playoffs?

I agree an Alyn McCauley type depth player gives the team a better chance to overmatch lower in the lineup.

Feels like reaching. Biggest reason Savard didn't have bigger playoff numbers was he played most of his career on teams that didn't make the playoffs. Argue that's on him if you like, but it's a team game. Even if your take holds somewhat true, Savard in his 25 playoff games doesn't have the chance to adapt that Thornton gets in his 187.

Phil Kessel has 3 cups now (100 playoff games) after finding the right roles. Maybe there's an alternate universe where Marc Savard wound up on the San Jose Sharks as a supporting cast member and both Savard and Thornton have cups.

It's self evident to say that there are players who perform better than others when the refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs. The value of players changes. It's not a stretch to say that the teams who win will be those who have rosters maximising that changed value.

IMO it's a trap to try to definitively sort players into "playoff guys" and "not playoff guys". It's a moving target where the only time we get enough sample size to judge is when good "playoff guys" have the serendipity to land on good rosters full of other "playoff guys". It's easy to point to a roster and say "they didn't get it done. Must not have enough playoff guys." Hard to prove wrong, but not constructive. Fine for the intermission desk, not for the work of building a team.

Talented, motivated players can figure it out. If they get the chance.

Never did I ever think I'd write so many words in defence of Marc Savard.

Well said.

 

[herman]

Feels like reaching. Biggest reason Savard didn't have bigger playoff numbers was he played most of his career on teams that didn't make the playoffs. Argue that's on him if you like, but it's a team game. Even if your take holds somewhat true, Savard in his 25 playoff games doesn't have the chance to adapt that Thornton gets in his 187.

Phil Kessel has 3 cups now (100 playoff games) after finding the right roles. Maybe there's an alternate universe where Marc Savard wound up on the San Jose Sharks as a supporting cast member and both Savard and Thornton have cups.

It's self evident to say that there are players who perform better than others when the refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs. The value of players changes. It's not a stretch to say that the teams who win will be those who have rosters maximising that changed value.

IMO it's a trap to try to definitively sort players into "playoff guys" and "not playoff guys". It's a moving target where the only time we get enough sample size to judge is when good "playoff guys" have the serendipity to land on good rosters full of other "playoff guys". It's easy to point to a roster and say "they didn't get it done. Must not have enough playoff guys." Hard to prove wrong, but not constructive. Fine for the intermission desk, not for the work of building a team.

Talented, motivated players can figure it out. If they get the chance.

Never did I ever think I'd write so many words in defence of Marc Savard.

Thanks for the thorough response!

I'm more or less in-line with what you're saying about finding roles and maximizing them. The Phil Kessel example really highlights the model of depth scoring from an overmatch 3rd line being important when the stars mostly zero each other out.

I think my idea at this point is, in analyzing the metagame of the playoffs, pure playmakers take a huge hit in productivity under playoff style play and officiating. In the KHL championship, this is likely not the case, but in the NHL's no-space playoffs, the game is won by whoever can get the puck off the walls and into the middle of the ice before defenses are set most often.