Ranking Prospects 2024-25

[IJustLurkHere]

I think my idea at this point is, in analyzing the metagame of the playoffs, pure playmakers take a huge hit in productivity under playoff style play and officiating. In the KHL championship, this is likely not the case, but in the NHL's no-space playoffs, the game is won by whoever can get the puck off the walls and into the middle of the ice before defenses are set most often.

If we're going to get meta, I'd suggest taking it up a level further and not getting to attached to any sort of "playoff style" (and beyond that, I think you've got some legwork to do on your premise re: playmakers, but meta's the phrase i'm bumping on, so let's stay there).

Right now it's the Florida forecheck. A few years ago it was puck possession -with dump and chase being actively frowned on. Not long before that it was the LA Kings grinding the boards. Everyone follows the leader, but if you spend too much effort following the style of the day, you can get caught out when the next one rolls through, like last years (relatively) cheap possession Leafs D getting caught in the headlights of the Florida forecheck.

My anecdotal off-the-cuff observation (semi hot-take?) which could definitely use some more evidence is that the next thing is almost likely to come from whatever is least useful right now. Playmakers disappearing in the playoffs? Someone is going to come up with a heavy passing approach which will put the forecheckers back on their heels. They'll look like a genius, but at a meta level it would be a reaction to being able to get value contracts for playmakers (if teams grant the premise and move away from them). Not particularly useful to the Leafs who are trying to win the league that is, not reinvent it, but write off playmakers at your own risk.

Talent finds a way.

 

[cw]

I think my idea at this point is, in analyzing the metagame of the playoffs, pure playmakers take a huge hit in productivity under playoff style play and officiating. In the KHL championship, this is likely not the case, but in the NHL's no-space playoffs, the game is won by whoever can get the puck off the walls and into the middle of the ice before defenses are set most often.

If we're going to get meta, I'd suggest taking it up a level further and not getting to attached to any sort of "playoff style" (and beyond that, I think you've got some legwork to do on your premise re: playmakers, but meta's the phrase i'm bumping on, so let's stay there).

Right now it's the Florida forecheck. A few years ago it was puck possession -with dump and chase being actively frowned on. Not long before that it was the LA Kings grinding the boards. Everyone follows the leader, but if you spend too much effort following the style of the day, you can get caught out when the next one rolls through, like last years (relatively) cheap possession Leafs D getting caught in the headlights of the Florida forecheck.

My anecdotal off-the-cuff observation (semi hot-take?) which could definitely use some more evidence is that the next thing is almost likely to come from whatever is least useful right now. Playmakers disappearing in the playoffs? Someone is going to come up with a heavy passing approach which will put the forecheckers back on their heels. They'll look like a genius, but at a meta level it would be a reaction to being able to get value contracts for playmakers (if teams grant the premise and move away from them). Not particularly useful to the Leafs who are trying to win the league that is, not reinvent it, but write off playmakers at your own risk.

Talent finds a way.

Very roughly, about 40% of the game is played in one end. 40% in the other. 20% in the neutral zone.
A crazy aspect of a lot of the discussion about post season play seems to focus on only one end of the ice.

There's a reason why Keefe and Babcock gave the 'playmaker' the most ice time among the forwards. There's a reason why Auston Matthews has liked the 'playmaker' on his wing. He plays at a Selke-ish level in both ends of the ice. He doesn't just turn it  on 40% of the time in one end. There's more to his contribution than mere 'playmaking'

The fastest way to move the puck isn't by skating. Players exceptional at reading the play and passing the puck have been invaluable for decades. Imagine Wayne Gretzky's career removing his playmaking - a bunch from his 'office'. Do the Oilers still win 4 Cups? I don't think so. McDavid, "put the team on his back" according to many and set a playoff record ... with 34 playoff assists this season. I don't think the Oilers do nearly as well without McDavid's playmaking.

I thought the 2024 Cup final was going to be interesting pitting two different teams with two different styles against each other. I wondered if it would set a template for how GMs might try to construct their teams in the near future if one of them heavily prevailed over the other. That sure as heck didn't happen. I think the Oilers surprised that they could be as competitive as they were against a strong defensive team. Two coaches examined the talents of the players they had to work with and focused on getting them to play in a way that would get the most out of them. To me, it has always been that way. There have been common ingredients or characteristics but no clear cut cookie cutter that lasts for systemic playoff success. Its been a moving target for decades. Nearly every Cup winner seems to have its own team personality. The successful teams find one that resonates and makes them greater than the sum of their parts.

 

[bustaheims]

Regardless of what play-style is en vogue, one thing has always been true - the deeper you get into the playoffs, the harder it gets to find time and space. Some playmakers adapt well to that and make quicker, often simpler decisions with the puck. Others try to lean into what worked for them in the regular season, and those are the types that struggle as things tighten up defensively.

It?s not about whether you?re a perimeter player or a playmaker or any of that. It?s how you adapt your game to the tighter defence and the different tempo of the playoffs. That?s really what separates playoff performers from playoff ?no-shows.?

 

[herman]

My anecdotal off-the-cuff observation (semi hot-take?) which could definitely use some more evidence is that the next thing is almost likely to come from whatever is least useful right now. Playmakers disappearing in the playoffs? Someone is going to come up with a heavy passing approach which will put the forecheckers back on their heels. They'll look like a genius, but at a meta level it would be a reaction to being able to get value contracts for playmakers (if teams grant the premise and move away from them).

I think this is exactly what Dubas/Keefe were trying to do initially, and leaned into it pretty hard. Drafting for skill (develop the rest) and playing a puck possession style in a league that favoured dump and chase, and then backfill the grindier elements at the deadline (and release them in the offseason when they price out). And we've seen over the past few years that this style has been too easy to shut down; to the Leafs' talents' credit, they are at least always a tough out.

 

[herman]

Regardless of what play-style is en vogue, one thing has always been true - the deeper you get into the playoffs, the harder it gets to find time and space. Some playmakers adapt well to that and make quicker, often simpler decisions with the puck. Others try to lean into what worked for them in the regular season, and those are the types that struggle as things tighten up defensively.

It?s not about whether you?re a perimeter player or a playmaker or any of that. It?s how you adapt your game to the tighter defence and the different tempo of the playoffs. That?s really what separates playoff performers from playoff ?no-shows.?

Without any compelling moves to the roster thus far, the one thing I've seen from Treliving that is giving me hope is that he recognizes exactly this and has hired a coach who also recognizes this.

Keefe recognized some of it (gotta score ugly in the playoffs), but couldn't get the players to come off what worked in the regular season until it was too late.

There's a reason why Keefe and Babcock gave the 'playmaker' the most ice time among the forwards. There's a reason why Auston Matthews has liked the 'playmaker' on his wing. He plays at a Selke-ish level in both ends of the ice. He doesn't just turn it  on 40% of the time in one end. There's more to his contribution than mere 'playmaking'

I think every team would love to have a Marner, but there is also a reason these two coaches couldn't get it done. Babcock for b-hole reasons (no one wanted to play for him, despite his tactical prowess). Keefe for over-believing in and over-reliance on his two top guys to the detriment of the team. Pairing Marner with Matthews made it extremely easy to neuter the Leafs' attack in the playoffs, especially when Marner was obviously just looking for the home run pass to Matthews every time.

 

[cw]

There's a reason why Keefe and Babcock gave the 'playmaker' the most ice time among the forwards. There's a reason why Auston Matthews has liked the 'playmaker' on his wing. He plays at a Selke-ish level in both ends of the ice. He doesn't just turn it  on 40% of the time in one end. There's more to his contribution than mere 'playmaking'

I think every team would love to have a Marner, but there is also a reason these two coaches couldn't get it done. Babcock for b-hole reasons (no one wanted to play for him, despite his tactical prowess). Keefe for over-believing in and over-reliance on his two top guys to the detriment of the team. Pairing Marner with Matthews made it extremely easy to neuter the Leafs' attack in the playoffs, especially when Marner was obviously just looking for the home run pass to Matthews every time.

Except for the 11 playoff goals Marner scored (4th on his team) mixed in with him leading his team in playoff scoring.

Every playoff team has their top scoring guys targeted defensively.
That's nothing special.
As the Leafs top playoff scorer, I guess Marner was the toughest to defend against because he had more to his game than just a shot. He was in on setting up Tavares, Nylander, etc too.

 

[L K]

A bigger problem for me is that the vast majority of the goals in the playoffs aren't simply "dirty goals", they are goals scored quickly when teams enter the zone with speed and get scoring chances before a defense gets a chance to get set up.  The Leafs have gotten progressively worse at this over the last few years as our defense has been offensive non-contributors.  I like the additions of OEL and Tanev for that reason.  Tanev isn't going to light the world on fire offensively but he's able to get the puck moving up the ice and OEL is absolutely a guy who can contribute on the offensive end.

OEL's 9 goals would have made him first on the team in defenseman goal scoring and his 32 points would be 2nd behind Rielly's 58 (McCabe was 2nd with 28).  Tanev's biggest offensive value is likely to be giving Rielly more room to take chances offensively

 

[herman]

[youtube]lW7RZnN1DvU[/youtube]

 

[Highlander]

Nice Herman, geez I forgot how young these kids are.

 

[herman]

Nice Herman, geez I forgot how young these kids are.

When they start saying they grew up watching the players that we remember as kids on the team?

They?ve never heard the sound of a dial up modem before.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/sellishockey/status/1817233191079395421

 

[herman]

I voted, very off-the-cuff and just going by vibes and who might conceivably find an NHL role.

1 Matthew Knies
2 Easton Cowan
3 Fraser Minten
4 Ben Danford
5 Nikita Grebenkin
6 Nicholas Robertson
7 Topi Niemel?
8 Dennis Hildeby
9 Ryan Tverberg
10 Artur Akhtyamov
11 Roni Hirvonen
12 Jacob Quillan
13 Alex Steeves
14 Noah Chadwick
15 Mikko Kokkonen
16 Vyacheslav Peksa
17 Nicholas Moldenhauer
18 Hudson Malinoski
19 Cade Webber
20 William Villeneuve
21 Ty Voit
22 Braeden Kressler
23 Miroslav Holinka
24 Victor Johansson
25 Semyon Der-Arguchintsev

 

[herman]

https://x.com/markhmasters/status/1818387901912432851
Um pls stop

 

[herman]

https://x.com/mitchlbrown/status/1818655941073809745

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/EdmOilKings/status/1818738563737071909
This will make it easier to keep tabs on his development

and if any team ever does him dirty, Allan Walsh will let us all know.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I voted, very off-the-cuff and just going by vibes and who might conceivably find an NHL role.

Had some time to finally make my list, similarly mostly just going based off vibes:

1) Knies, 2) Cowan, 3) Minten, 4) Robertson, 5) Danford

I almost put Danford at 4 like you did, but ultimately decided to go this way since it was just too hard for me to put players still relatively far away from the NHL over Robertson who scored at a 20-goal/40-point pace last season. In a year from now I could definitely see Danford jumping up 1 or maybe even 2 spots on the list though. And obviously who knows if Robertson will even be on the list a year from now (let alone a couple months from now).

6) Hildeby, 7) Grebenkin, 8) Niemela, 9) Tverberg, 10) Hirvonen, 11) Akhtyamov, 12) Chadwick

I have this group all ranked pretty close together and all defined as remaining players with the highest potential but still certainly aren't guaranteed to be NHLers.

13) Webber, 14) Steeves, 15) Kokkonen, 16) Quillan, 17) Villeneuve

Another closely ranked group. This group is all basically guys with fairly low NHL potential but with some level of likelihood of hitting it even if it's just as guys who have a cup of coffee in the NHL.

18) Voit, 19) Holinka, 20) Peksa, 21) Moldenhauer, 22) Johansson
23) SDA 24) Malinoski, 25) Kressler

Last grouping, and at last second I broke them up into two tiers. First tier are guys that I do all like to some degree as prospects despite being low on the list but really it's just way too early to even not-confidently say they'll play a single game in the NHL. Second tier is just because I needed 3 more names for the list.

 

[herman]

I almost put Danford at 4 like you did, but ultimately decided to go this way since it was just too hard for me to put players still relatively far away from the NHL over Robertson who scored at a 20-goal/40-point pace last season. In a year from now I could definitely see Danford jumping up 1 or maybe even 2 spots on the list though. And obviously who knows if Robertson will even be on the list a year from now (let alone a couple months from now).

I had Robertson dropping down out of the top 5 because his floor collapsing is starting to supersede his offensive ceiling. I think his ceiling is higher than the guys ranked above him (in my estimation), but not in the "ok, we can give you a pass on those deficiencies because of the overwhelming offense" tier.

My hope is he takes a show-me QO deal and Berube's system of NS attack + top-9 deployment gives him just enough opportunity to find his footing consistently while away from the puck. There's a bit of headless chicken to his defensive game that meant his minutes were always curated and curtailed. Until he cleans that up, he's a tweener like Martin Frk.

I like how Danford and Greybonkin profile so far, and they play premier positions that the Leafs have traditionally struggled to fill out on the roster (mobile defensive RD, LW with size AND skill), so they got the nod.

 

[herman]

[youtube]p4rojbC1QgA[/youtube]
Topi Niemela had a fairly strong rookie season and was relied on relatively heavily, 6th in pts scored only surpassed by some former NHLers and AHL veterans. I think he's still a year away from really getting a crack at the NHL roster, and his size might hold him back given the player types our GM/Coach now favour, but I still like him very much. He will have more of a safety net this coming season riding shotgun with some of Tre's new defense-first trees on LD (Webber most likely).

 

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/top-25-under-25-unranked-and-honourable-mentions/
Received no votes: Semyon Kizimov, Joe Fusco, Matthew Lahey, Nathan Mayes
Not enough votes to make top 25: Michael Koster, Sam McCue, Joe Miller, Wyatt Schingoethe, Veeti Miettinen, Alexander Plesovskikh, Braeden Kressler

My list had Kressler in there, so I'm guessing the guy that made the cut was Timofei Obvintsev, which is fair. He's big, athletic, and our Russian goalie pipeline shows promise. He was like 27 on my vibes list by virtue of being an MHL goalie with limited track record. The MHL is a huge crapshoot; one half of the league is pretty good, while the other half is super easy, which leads to some wonky numbers on the aggregate. Tactically, they also tend to shoot from distance.

Kressler is smol, but plays the position where size arguably matters the least (wing), just some tough injury spells.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/Kyle_Cush/status/1820520872744296764
In the run up to the season opener, Kyle is doing a podcast dive into every player in the Leafs organization, and kicking off with the Leafs' latest 1st rounder, Ben Danford.