bustaheims
Well-known member
Bender said:
Everything will get resolved long before then, but, he doesn?t have any real leverage to force their hands.
Ranking Prospects 2024-25
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
Everything will get resolved long before then, but, he doesn?t have any real leverage to force their hands.
If they pick up a 3rd line center that makes sense they would be looking for, here's the top 9 wingers:
Marner
Nylander
Domi
Knies
McMann
Jarnkrok
McMann beat him out last year. Jarnkrok can help in the top 6 and is a Swiss Army knife.
Robertson is close to one dimensional: he can score. He's not a 4th liner.
Even if he were to start in the top 9, he's vulnerable to stay there. He would be decent depth if someone got hurt.
If he could move to a less talented team, he probably could stick in the top 9 or maybe the top 6.
He's in a touch spot. I don't entirely blame him or the Leafs.
However, he has a shot of some kind with the Leafs. He can't change his position sitting out.
Marner
Nylander
Domi
Knies
McMann
Jarnkrok
McMann beat him out last year. Jarnkrok can help in the top 6 and is a Swiss Army knife.
Robertson is close to one dimensional: he can score. He's not a 4th liner.
Even if he were to start in the top 9, he's vulnerable to stay there. He would be decent depth if someone got hurt.
If he could move to a less talented team, he probably could stick in the top 9 or maybe the top 6.
He's in a touch spot. I don't entirely blame him or the Leafs.
However, he has a shot of some kind with the Leafs. He can't change his position sitting out.
Zee
Well-known member
cw said:
McMann was a great story and find for the Leafs, but he had 15 goals in 56 games, while Roberston had 14 goals in 56 games. Based on their ages, it's natural to expect Robertson to improve while McMann probably not. So it's not like he's stuck behind a bunch of young can't miss wingers.
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 3. Fraser Minten
At this point, Fraser Minten might be Ned Flanders. Huge, huge (hockey nerd), wears glasses, plays the piano (hello Joe Woll), and likes to go an random mountain hikes (HELLO, Joe Woll), and is low-key super ripped underneath the sweater. He reminds me of that Frank Catalanatto story where Frank never had the most talent or skill, but would meticulously document every pitcher and pitch he faced, and pre-plan the following engagements.
Minten doesn't have the flash of a Cowan, the shot of a Robertson, or the sheer force of a Knies, but he easily outpaces his cohort in processing the game mentally. So it might take him a little longer to leave his mark on the NHL roster, but when he does get called up for sure, he will be a key glue guy between his wingers and defensemen, and between the bottom-6 and top-6 of the forward roster.
At this point, Fraser Minten might be Ned Flanders. Huge, huge (hockey nerd), wears glasses, plays the piano (hello Joe Woll), and likes to go an random mountain hikes (HELLO, Joe Woll), and is low-key super ripped underneath the sweater. He reminds me of that Frank Catalanatto story where Frank never had the most talent or skill, but would meticulously document every pitcher and pitch he faced, and pre-plan the following engagements.
Minten doesn't have the flash of a Cowan, the shot of a Robertson, or the sheer force of a Knies, but he easily outpaces his cohort in processing the game mentally. So it might take him a little longer to leave his mark on the NHL roster, but when he does get called up for sure, he will be a key glue guy between his wingers and defensemen, and between the bottom-6 and top-6 of the forward roster.
bustaheims
Well-known member
Zee said:
The thing with McMann is that he has a lot more utility outside of scoring than Robertson. He's a solid defensive forward, has good size, and isn't afraid to get involved physically. He could play the Zach Hyman role on a top 6 line. That alone puts him ahead of Robertson, as the rest of the top 6 pieces can handle the heavy lifting for putting the puck into the net. Same is true of Knies. Robertson needs to show he can contribute consistently and be more than a pure shooter if he wants to cement a place higher in the lineup than the 3rd line.
bustaheims said:
I agree.
He's fast. Good size and strength to win puck battles. Wins faceoffs. He hits. Blocks shots. Fights. He has some finish. Coachable. Will go into the corners or to the dirty areas of the ice. They were trying him at PK towards the end of the season. I think he's still learning the NHL game in terms of reads, anticipation, defensive positioning, etc. He's flirting with a power forward game. Pretty useful.
A lot of those things Robertson doesn't offer. I don't think there's much of a contest between the two.
McMann's biggest risk is his health. Play like that and you can get hurt. He has been hurt.
For what it's worth, Dreger was saying today he thinks a deal gets worked out with Robertson.
L K
Well-known member
Zee said:
I don't really blame him. He's a prospect who has legitimate NHL tools but a flawed game. His career has been a bit of a mess because he playing "Playoff" games long before he should have been in the NHL and COVID changes his development path. He probably should have spent a full season or two in the AHL to work on development but the world screwed some of that up.
I could see where he maybe wants a bit of a fresh start to reset his career but this was a scenario where he should be signing his QO/signing an extension and requesting a trade while not trying to hold out.
The closer we get to training camp, the less desire there will be from the team to make space for him.
Right now a 12/7/2 lineup has 1.275M in cap space. That doesn't factor in whatever is going on with Hakanpaa and we recently signed Lorentz to a PTO who in theory fits a bottom 6 roll better than Robertson. Cowan just had an unbelievable Junior season in his Draft +1 year so he's going to be pushing to make the team and Minten made the team last year although was clearly not ready once it came to regular season games.
I'm sure a deal gets worked out and I think Berube is the kind of coach who won't hold offseason issues against a player but I hope that Robertson has still be following through on his homework because Berube probably isn't going to like his defensive struggles very much.
L K said:
Was just playing around with some numbers. Assuming Hakanpaa signs at his original $1.5mil and Cowan earns a roster spot during training camp (which would presumably force Holmberg off the team) that Leafs would have a 12F/7D/2G roster with $770,666 in cap space. Less than $5k too little for a league minimum contract (and about $25k away from being able to keep Holmberg's $800k contract).
I wonder if when/if the Hakanpaa deal is finalized if it comes in at just a tad bit less than the original number (and potentially maybe on a 1-year deal) or if they stick with the original terms.
herman
Well-known member
https://twitter.com/6ixOnIce/status/1833154084104208724
Fun (or extremely sad) exercise if you want to try! 2010 to present for a today-team.
Gonna do my own:
Grebyonkin-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Verhaeghe-Nylander
Grundstrom-Joshua-Cowan
Engvall-Minten-Brown
Holmberg, Robertson
Rielly-Liljegren
Sandin-Durzi
Dermott-Kokkonen
Niemela
Woll
Hildeby
Fun (or extremely sad) exercise if you want to try! 2010 to present for a today-team.
Gonna do my own:
Grebyonkin-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Verhaeghe-Nylander
Grundstrom-Joshua-Cowan
Engvall-Minten-Brown
Holmberg, Robertson
Rielly-Liljegren
Sandin-Durzi
Dermott-Kokkonen
Niemela
Woll
Hildeby
L K
Well-known member
CarltonTheBear said:
I wonder if Hakanpaa is playing on borrowed knees if they come up with a 2-year alternative. Worst case he goes on LTIR and maybe you drop the AAV to 1.2 or something where the Leafs either get good value for two years if he holds up or Hakanpaa gets an insurance/LTIR contract for next season if he can't. I don't think Holmberg is a player you lose sleep over losing but I think it would be a mistake to lose him in this way.
L K
Well-known member
herman said:
Last year Matthews/Marner/Nylander combined for 29.5M in cap space. That's 35.3% of the cap (83.5M)
This year Matthews/Marner/Nylander combined for 35.6M in cap space. That's 40.5% of the cap (88M)
Next year if Marner came back for say 12.5M they would combine for 36.2M. That's 39% of a hypothetical 92M cap
If you expand it out to the core 4 last year they made 40.49M for 48.5% of the cap. If the cap went to 92M they could sign Tavares to an 8.4M extension to maintain a 48.5% of the cap. Stamkos signed for 8M as a PPG 40 goal scorer. I would hope either by goodwill or slightly less production that Tavares would come cheaper. If they could get him back at 5M that would put them at 44.7% of the cap which is the best number they have been at since they started signing extensions.
Also I'd like to point out my math is probably not 100% accurate and also I hate that this is what talking about roster spots comes down to now.
LeafsDownUnder
Member
I'd like to think JT would be happy with $5m or less.
Surely he's earned enough to be financially secure.
He knows how the Leafs could benefit from having an extra $6-7 million to play with.
Surely he's earned enough to be financially secure.
He knows how the Leafs could benefit from having an extra $6-7 million to play with.
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 2. Easton Cowan
I don't know if there is much more to add here* until we see him hit the ice again. According to his trainer with London (who is not at all unbiased), he is bigger and stronger without losing speed. He has a chip on his shoulder from the way the Knights lost in the Memorial Cup.
There are easy parallels to draw with another top flight Leafs prospect out of the London Knightssystem cabal in Mitch Marner, who similarly had OHL-wide and Memorial Cup MVP performances (and won the thing), strictly in terms of accolades, hardware, and importance on the team. The key difference is they go about it in pretty different ways.
Marner is a magician with what I like to call macro-creativity; where he uses his skills and vision to find or generate plays that most people don't see (a la Gretzky?). He has a deft touch with the puck and distributes routinely for good to great chances when he has a bit of space to work with. It is of my opinion (via observation) that the Keefe system of puck possession was basically built around leveraging Marner (and Matthews') skillset to have the puck lots, and create very open looks. Lots of puck touches around the perimeter to open up a seam pass dagger.
Cowan is also a playmaking winger but is much more straightforward in a see-puck-get-puck-move-puck sort of way. He is constantly improving the condition of the puck possession and brings his handling skills to bear in the micro: getting the puck off the wall, getting the puck past a layer of defense to dish to an open lane, playing into and off contact to free up space for a teammate, etc. He is a force on the PK because of his ability to read the offense, disrupt it, and finish off rush plays. He is exactly the type of player Craig Berube wants up and down the lineup.
There's not much left for him in the OHL, other than to win the Memorial Cup, but I'm afraid he will pick up bad habits from too much time there, where his ability and strength and speed allow him relative impunity with the puck. In the games I watched, his shifts were getting way too long, and the defense he was up against were not really a challenge.
* proceeds to write 4 more paragraphs.
[youtube]-wlHFdNNK2k[/youtube]
I don't know if there is much more to add here* until we see him hit the ice again. According to his trainer with London (who is not at all unbiased), he is bigger and stronger without losing speed. He has a chip on his shoulder from the way the Knights lost in the Memorial Cup.
There are easy parallels to draw with another top flight Leafs prospect out of the London Knights
Marner is a magician with what I like to call macro-creativity; where he uses his skills and vision to find or generate plays that most people don't see (a la Gretzky?). He has a deft touch with the puck and distributes routinely for good to great chances when he has a bit of space to work with. It is of my opinion (via observation) that the Keefe system of puck possession was basically built around leveraging Marner (and Matthews') skillset to have the puck lots, and create very open looks. Lots of puck touches around the perimeter to open up a seam pass dagger.
Cowan is also a playmaking winger but is much more straightforward in a see-puck-get-puck-move-puck sort of way. He is constantly improving the condition of the puck possession and brings his handling skills to bear in the micro: getting the puck off the wall, getting the puck past a layer of defense to dish to an open lane, playing into and off contact to free up space for a teammate, etc. He is a force on the PK because of his ability to read the offense, disrupt it, and finish off rush plays. He is exactly the type of player Craig Berube wants up and down the lineup.
There's not much left for him in the OHL, other than to win the Memorial Cup, but I'm afraid he will pick up bad habits from too much time there, where his ability and strength and speed allow him relative impunity with the puck. In the games I watched, his shifts were getting way too long, and the defense he was up against were not really a challenge.
* proceeds to write 4 more paragraphs.
[youtube]-wlHFdNNK2k[/youtube]