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Tank Nation UNITE!!!

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cw said:
caveman said:
4th would be a good position to draft from...any move to 3rd or 2nd will take some luck...but no winning streaks !!  8)
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If the Leafs went pointless in their last 16 and Edmonton and Buffalo carried on playing their season average .320 to .350 hockey, they still wouldn't pass the Leafs.

They have a better chance of being overtaken by the Coyotes mathematically but since the deadline, Arizona dumped their better players and are playing around .100 hockey ... so that looks pretty grim too.

4th looks most likely with about a 45% chance they'll remain there after the lottery and a 9.5% chance they'll get McDavid.
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Hard to believe there are teams having worse seasons than the leafs.
 
Hard to believe that at week 10, this team was 3 or 4 points from first overall.

The Leafs have to have the worst record overall since that point, right?
 
TorStar: Puck possession helps predict playoff chances, analytics suggest | link

This should not be too surprising. As many studies have demonstrated, possession metrics aren?t perfect, but they do pretty well at predicting a team?s future record. Moreover, in this case, we?re talking about teams that have roughly the same number of points over the first 60 games.

If a poor possession team has generated the same record as a good possession team over the first 60 games, which seems more likely to be able to step up its play down the stretch? A team that has built its record on goaltending and shooting probably doesn?t have much room to go up in those categories, and it?s very rare for a team to suddenly start generating more shots.

A good possession team, meanwhile, must not have had as good goaltending or shooting (or else it would have had a better record), and so is more likely to have room to improve its play in those areas.
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I don't read the Star for Hockey anymore, but this did pop up and it was a good point.

Also:
[tweet]574950864982511616[/tweet]
Horachek is totally on board.
 
Boston Leaf said:
TML fan said:
Boston Leaf said:
As much as we need a center I would love to see hannifan fall to us somehow. This kid should be a heck of a pro..
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He would be the disappointing defenceman the Leafs will likely draft :)
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so why disapointing?
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Because we are in desperate need for a 1st line centre!
 
CarltonTheBear said:
pmrules said:
So say we get one of Marner or Strome.  Would you play them one more year in junior or bring them up to the Leafs?  They can't play for the Marlies.  Are these two kids ready for prime time?
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My natural instinct would be to say send them back. The teams been preaching patience with all their other prospects the last little bit so it would be in line with that philosophy. The problem of course is that they're both dominating the OHL right now. But Strome could probably use a full year in the OHL where he's the top dog on his team. And Marner would probably be sent back for the same reason Jonathan Drouin was.
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Thanks Carlton - Just saw this. 

I think I would agree to give them each one more year in Junior.  I just wonder what more they have to prove at Junior levels - it could only be worse...so that's why I ask the question. 

That being said, it'd be nice for Nylander to make the Leafs next year (2015-16), with Strome/Marner hopefully coming in the year after (2016-2017).  Build a constant yearly entry for each of the prime prospects.
 
pmrules said:
I think I would agree to give them each one more year in Junior.  I just wonder what more they have to prove at Junior levels - it could only be worse...so that's why I ask the question.
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I thought about it even more after I posted and I do think that it could benefit Strome quite a bit. His numbers are obviously inflated a tad because of the fact that he's playing on the same team as McDavid (but not on the same line). Although he still performed very well when McDavid was injured/at the WJCs. But it'd just be a little weird to have a player like Strome end his OHL career without ever actually being the go-to player on his team. Having to be the guy for the Otters next season would probably be a very valuable experience.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
pmrules said:
I think I would agree to give them each one more year in Junior.  I just wonder what more they have to prove at Junior levels - it could only be worse...so that's why I ask the question.
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I thought about it even more after I posted and I do think that it could benefit Strome quite a bit. His numbers are obviously inflated a tad because of the fact that he's playing on the same team as McDavid (but not on the same line). Although he still performed very well when McDavid was injured/at the WJCs. But it'd just be a little weird to have a player like Strome end his OHL career without ever actually being the go-to player on his team. Having to be the guy for the Otters next season would probably be a very valuable experience.
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Fair enough...what about Marner?
 
Guru Tugginmypuddah said:
I don't know, but I can't remember there being a case where a player was left too long in junior.
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That's because if a player is brought up early and fails people attribute it to being brought up early whereas if a player is left in junior and fails, people don't attribute it to being left in junior.
 
Kessel Run said:
The draft lottery simulator scares me. Imagine if a team like LA, San Jose, Ottawa, or Philadelphia wins it.
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I'm not entirely sure how I feel about those teams being potential lottery winners, even if their odds are incredibly low. I do think that the worst teams should be the ones to pick first. I know that they want to open it up to everyone to stop the problem of tanking, but having the lottery this way (and changing it even more next season) isn't going to start making teams like Buffalo try and get an extra few wins on the season. If they know that they don't have a chance in hell to make the playoffs then they'll still act the same way they have been and be perfectly fine with a team that loses games. This new lottery system doesn't stop the problem of tanking, it just won't reward teams that do it as often.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Kessel Run said:
The draft lottery simulator scares me. Imagine if a team like LA, San Jose, Ottawa, or Philadelphia wins it.
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I'm not entirely sure how I feel about those teams being potential lottery winners, even if their odds are incredibly low. I do think that the worst teams should be the ones to pick first. I know that they want to open it up to everyone to stop the problem of tanking, but having the lottery this way (and changing it even more next season) isn't going to start making teams like Buffalo try and get an extra few wins on the season. If they know that they don't have a chance in hell to make the playoffs then they'll still act the same way they have been and be perfectly fine with a team that loses games. This new lottery system doesn't stop the problem of tanking, it just won't reward teams that do it as often.
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It frightens me that even if the Leafs miraculously finish as low as the 3rd worst record, there's a greater chance of any one of the 5 best teams that failed to make the playoffs winning the lottery (cumulative 12.0% chance) than of the Leafs winning it (11.5% chance).
 
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