The Brian Burke Thread

[Tigger]

You can list failed teams all you want, that still doesn't answer for Burke's mistakes.  He came here preaching a faster than 5 year re-build.  It's year 5 coming up and he's been full of hot air so far.

Fwiw, I don't think you heard a whole lot of that after year one and he has kept picks while trading to acquire them too since the Kessel deal. Has he said the word 'rebuild'? No, but it's going that way more than not now.

He'll never admit trading for Kessel was a mistake.

 

[GoBuds]

the JFJ Rask trade set us back tenfold over that Kessel trade

Probably, yeah. The team traded away their top prospect there (one they could certainly use right now) and got nothing in return. The Kessel deal was costly, sure, but, it landed the team a 24 year old player who was 6th in the league in goals and points this season.

I have nothing against Kessel and I agree he's a great talent, but he's the guy you look to add after you've got the core pieces in place, a solid center, a solid goalie.  I'm not saying Seguin would be the savior, but he's only 20 years old right now. 4 years younger than Kessel.  That's the first draft pick Burke traded away, add in the NEXT year, and you have another 19 year old in the mix (who knows who the Leafs would have drafted), but that's now 2 pieces 20 or younger instead of Kessel right now.  That's an actual blueprint -- going with draft picks and allowing them to develop.

Suddenly you have:
Kadri (drafted the year before the Seguin draft)
Seguin
Next guy taken (maybe Hamilton we don't know)
and Colborne in the Kaberle trade which could have still been made.

That's at least a blue-print.  Burke instead traded 2 firsts and a second for Kessel, a great player, but it's not the way to build a core.  Your top 2 guys are now Kessel and Lupul.  Lupul is approaching 30, how many top-end years left will he have?

Zee, I read through much of this thread and you keep referencing a plan to build through high draft picks. You mention Pittsburgh - yeah that worked for them.

When I look at the Tampa there seem to be quite a few 1st rounders there. How are they doing?

Islanders (5-1sts in the last 3 years) How are they doing?

Columbus 10 top ten picks since 2000, how is that plan working?

My point isn't that you can't build through the draft - it is still a crap shoot. Heck Detroit has had some great years when they are picking late in the first round year after year.

It's an overall plan, could be draft picks, could be trades, free agents, etc. Any or all of these combined with development, coaching and a little luck is usually required.

I have no idea what it's going to take to get us to be a consistenly competitve team. My sense is its going to take awhile. Likely a few trades, signings and more then anything some luck with draft picks panning out.

 

[Kin]

When I look at the Tampa there seem to be quite a few 1st rounders there. How are they doing?

Their season last year equaled any the Maple Leafs have had since 1967 so...pretty good?

 

[GoBuds]

When I look at the Tampa there seem to be quite a few 1st rounders there. How are they doing?

Their season last year equaled any the Maple Leafs have had since 1967 so...pretty good?

All those firsts and 1 good year with a great playoff run. Funny you would think with all those firsts in the lineup they would be contending again this year.

My point is that getting a bunch of high firsts is no garauntee. While works for one team there are others that prove opposite. There is no magic formula - just multiple roads going to the same destination.

We just seem to be on a dirt road that goes in circles. LOL

 

[Zee]

the JFJ Rask trade set us back tenfold over that Kessel trade

Probably, yeah. The team traded away their top prospect there (one they could certainly use right now) and got nothing in return. The Kessel deal was costly, sure, but, it landed the team a 24 year old player who was 6th in the league in goals and points this season.

I have nothing against Kessel and I agree he's a great talent, but he's the guy you look to add after you've got the core pieces in place, a solid center, a solid goalie.  I'm not saying Seguin would be the savior, but he's only 20 years old right now. 4 years younger than Kessel.  That's the first draft pick Burke traded away, add in the NEXT year, and you have another 19 year old in the mix (who knows who the Leafs would have drafted), but that's now 2 pieces 20 or younger instead of Kessel right now.  That's an actual blueprint -- going with draft picks and allowing them to develop.

Suddenly you have:
Kadri (drafted the year before the Seguin draft)
Seguin
Next guy taken (maybe Hamilton we don't know)
and Colborne in the Kaberle trade which could have still been made.

That's at least a blue-print.  Burke instead traded 2 firsts and a second for Kessel, a great player, but it's not the way to build a core.  Your top 2 guys are now Kessel and Lupul.  Lupul is approaching 30, how many top-end years left will he have?

Zee, I read through much of this thread and you keep referencing a plan to build through high draft picks. You mention Pittsburgh - yeah that worked for them.

When I look at the Tampa there seem to be quite a few 1st rounders there. How are they doing?

Islanders (5-1sts in the last 3 years) How are they doing?

Columbus 10 top ten picks since 2000, how is that plan working?

My point isn't that you can't build through the draft - it is still a crap shoot. Heck Detroit has had some great years when they are picking late in the first round year after year.

It's an overall plan, could be draft picks, could be trades, free agents, etc. Any or all of these combined with development, coaching and a little luck is usually required.

I have no idea what it's going to take to get us to be a consistenly competitve team. My sense is its going to take awhile. Likely a few trades, signings and more then anything some luck with draft picks panning out.

The point has been brought up with all these other failed teams, Islanders, Florida, Tampa to some extent (they've won a Cup in colour), these are all cash-strapped teams, of which the Leafs are not.  They Leafs can and do have more options to augment their team then the aforementioned Islanders and Columbus's of the world.  The Leafs don't even seem to try and build through a draft though, it's never happened in recent memory.  We've gone through entire changes in ownership and managment from "draft shmaft" of Fletcher to now the Burke "re-tooling" as opposed to building.  The Leafs never seem to try and stick with a plan, and it hasn't changed under Burke.  By his own admission he could have had four additional first rounders in this year's draft -- why not take them?  Because the Leafs would have to wait another 3-4 years for them to develop -- SO?? We'll still be waiting 3-4 years minimum with the current team he's assembled.  Why not stock-pile more assets that you can later put in play to build up a team?

 

[Zee]

When I look at the Tampa there seem to be quite a few 1st rounders there. How are they doing?

Their season last year equaled any the Maple Leafs have had since 1967 so...pretty good?

All those firsts and 1 good year with a great playoff run. Funny you would think with all those firsts in the lineup they would be contending again this year.

My point is that getting a bunch of high firsts is no garauntee. While works for one team there are others that prove opposite. There is no magic formula - just multiple roads going to the same destination.

We just seem to be on a dirt road that goes in circles. LOL

Tampa won a cup before the lockout, and has been to the playoffs 3 times since the lockout.  The Leafs haven't won a Cup since 1967 and haven't been to the playoffs in 7 seasons, so I'd say that the Tampa model is significantly ahead of us.

 

[Kin]

All those firsts and 1 good year with a great playoff run. Funny you would think with all those firsts in the lineup they would be contending again this year.

All what firsts? Since they won the cup 8 years ago Tampa's first picks in the draft have been 30, 30, 15, 47, 1, 2, 6, 27. They've drafted in the top half of the league only three times, drafted two players who haven't really developed yet and you're criticizing them because since they drafted #1 overall only four years ago they've only had one great season?

My point is that getting a bunch of high firsts is no garauntee. While works for one team there are others that prove opposite. There is no magic formula - just multiple roads going to the same destination.

It's no guarantee of what? Eventually winning? Nobody would say it was. Everyone would admit that trades and free agent signings play into a team's success. The problem with what you're saying is that you're comparing the Leafs to some of the most dysfunctional organizations in the NHL. If Brian Burke is no better than Mike Milbury or Doug McLean then, you're right, it doesn't matter where he drafts. If he is better then you can't hold up the franchises they ran as just bad spins of the wheel that everyone could make.

 

[Jalili]

The point has been brought up with all these other failed teams, Islanders, Florida, Tampa to some extent (they've won a Cup in colour), these are all cash-strapped teams, of which the Leafs are not.  They Leafs can and do have more options to augment their team then the aforementioned Islanders and Columbus's of the world.  The Leafs don't even seem to try and build through a draft though, it's never happened in recent memory.  We've gone through entire changes in ownership and managment from "draft shmaft" of Fletcher to now the Burke "re-tooling" as opposed to building.  The Leafs never seem to try and stick with a plan, and it hasn't changed under Burke.  By his own admission he could have had four additional first rounders in this year's draft -- why not take them?  Because the Leafs would have to wait another 3-4 years for them to develop -- SO?? We'll still be waiting 3-4 years minimum with the current team he's assembled.  Why not stock-pile more assets that you can later put in play to build up a team?

The argument that seems to keep recirculating is that the ?tank? or whatever you want to call it rebuild model is not idiot-proof. The plan has certainly failed for a lot of the bush league organizations in the league, but like you said, Toronto holds several major advantages over them. They spend far more on their front office and scouting, they can spend to the cap every year and can willingly dump bad contracts to the AHL when needed.

 

[Kin]

The argument that seems to keep recirculating is that the ?tank? or whatever you want to call it rebuild model is not idiot-proof. The plan has certainly failed for a lot of the bush league organizations in the league, but like you said, Toronto holds several major advantages over them. They spend far more on their front office and scouting, they can spend to the cap every year and can willingly dump bad contracts to the AHL when needed.

Well put. The argument holding up Columbus or Atlanta of examples of the dangers of the rebuild is like saying having working headlights doesn't guarantee a safe drive home because lots of drunk drivers crash with working headlights.

 

[Tigger]

By his own admission he could have had four additional first rounders in this year's draft -- why not take them?

Wait, so trading Grabbo, Kulemin, Schenn and MacArthur would be sticking with a plan?

I'm taking the mick a bit there but trading your whole second line and a young blue chip player for low firsts in a lean draft year doesn't entirely make sense to me.

All is not lost though, the Leafs still have those assets and can trade them,.

 

[TML fan]

the JFJ Rask trade set us back tenfold over that Kessel trade

Probably, yeah. The team traded away their top prospect there (one they could certainly use right now) and got nothing in return. The Kessel deal was costly, sure, but, it landed the team a 24 year old player who was 6th in the league in goals and points this season.

I have nothing against Kessel and I agree he's a great talent, but he's the guy you look to add after you've got the core pieces in place, a solid center, a solid goalie.  I'm not saying Seguin would be the savior, but he's only 20 years old right now. 4 years younger than Kessel.  That's the first draft pick Burke traded away, add in the NEXT year, and you have another 19 year old in the mix (who knows who the Leafs would have drafted), but that's now 2 pieces 20 or younger instead of Kessel right now.  That's an actual blueprint -- going with draft picks and allowing them to develop.

Suddenly you have:
Kadri (drafted the year before the Seguin draft)
Seguin
Next guy taken (maybe Hamilton we don't know)
and Colborne in the Kaberle trade which could have still been made.

That's at least a blue-print.  Burke instead traded 2 firsts and a second for Kessel, a great player, but it's not the way to build a core.  Your top 2 guys are now Kessel and Lupul.  Lupul is approaching 30, how many top-end years left will he have?

You're looking at Seguin NOW, what he's doing in a completely different organization in a completely different stage of competitiveness, surrounded tons of support and not being leaned on to be carry any kind of load, on or off the ice, and assuming that he'd develop exactly the same way under completely different circumstances. I just don't think that's realistic. Like any regular person, players are a product of their environment.

For all we know, Seguin would come to Toronto, not even MAKE the roster in his draft year and take 3 years longer to develop to the level he is now, under heavy if not overwhelming scrutiny. By the time Seguin even saw his 1st NHL game he'd be around Kessel's age now with no experience under his belt, and no guarantee he'd turn into half the player he is now. Seguin is a really good player, but I don't think he's exceptional.

I think a prospect like Kadri, or whoever the Leafs draft this year, has a much better chance of success when the expectations are much lower, IE: being surrounded by other players who can carry more of the burden and have the expectations put on them. Any high pick is going to have heightened expectations on a team like the Leafs, but if you shield those players with other players who can take some of that burden away (Like Phil Kessel, who is expected to carry the offensive load for this team) I think your prospects have a much higher chance for success.

This is also why, IMO, Pittsburgh is the exception and not the rule.

 

[Kin]

The Pens organization was a mess and drafted top 5 five years in a row.

The real point that should be made if someone didn't want to follow Pittsburgh's lead is really that "the Pittsburgh model" took place in world that no longer exists. Pittsburgh went into season after season being so terrible in part because there was a 50 million or so gap between what they were spending on players and what the top teams were spending. In today's NHL you can't really have a team that bad. The cap floor prevents you from being so bad that you can go into a season knowing that you're going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Chicago is the model that teams should really be paying attention to. Chicago built their team with only two top 5 picks and, while both of them are good players, neither guy is Sidney Crosby(and both guys were drafted in years where people weren't all that excited about the draft).

In the modern NHL you don't need to be at the bottom of the league for five years. The fact that Pittsburgh was is just the reason they have an embarrassing abundance of top players. You just need to have a few years where you draft elite talent and match that with proper team building elsewhere. The problem with Burke so far is that he hasn't really delivered in any area, the drafting of elite talent just being one area.

 

[Bates]

So would I assume the people on here endorsing the "Pitts" plan would rather have the Leafs "plan" to finish last every year for numerous seasons to keep getting the top pick rather than try to get better every year through trades and free agency.  I would prefer that the Leafs "try" to get better every year and never be the worst team in the league.  And I am willing to accept the chance of a fall back as we try to improve.  I guess that's just me?

 

[Kin]

For all we know, Seguin would come to Toronto, not even MAKE the roster in his draft year and take 3 years longer to develop to the level he is now, under heavy if not overwhelming scrutiny. By the time Seguin even saw his 1st NHL game he'd be around Kessel's age now with no experience under his belt, and no guarantee he'd turn into half the player he is now. Seguin is a really good player, but I don't think he's exceptional.

If Seguin was capable of making the roster of a Cup winning Bruins team, I don't think anyone should seriously consider that he'd have struggled to make the roster of a Leafs team that stunk out loud.

 

[Zee]

The Pens organization was a mess and drafted top 5 five years in a row.

The real point that should be made if someone didn't want to follow Pittsburgh's lead is really that "the Pittsburgh model" took place in world that no longer exists. Pittsburgh went into season after season being so terrible in part because there was a 50 million or so gap between what they were spending on players and what the top teams were spending. In today's NHL you can't really have a team that bad. The cap floor prevents you from being so bad that you can go into a season knowing that you're going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Chicago is the model that teams should really be paying attention to. Chicago built their team with only two top 5 picks and, while both of them are good players, neither guy is Sidney Crosby(and both guys were drafted in years where people weren't all that excited about the draft).

In the modern NHL you don't need to be at the bottom of the league for five years. The fact that Pittsburgh was is just the reason they have an embarrassing abundance of top players. You just need to have a few years where you draft elite talent and match that with proper team building elsewhere. The problem with Burke so far is that he hasn't really delivered in any area, the drafting of elite talent just being one area.

You're my favorite new poster that I haven't really noticed before.

 

[TML fan]

For all we know, Seguin would come to Toronto, not even MAKE the roster in his draft year and take 3 years longer to develop to the level he is now, under heavy if not overwhelming scrutiny. By the time Seguin even saw his 1st NHL game he'd be around Kessel's age now with no experience under his belt, and no guarantee he'd turn into half the player he is now. Seguin is a really good player, but I don't think he's exceptional.

If Seguin was capable of making the roster of a Cup winning Bruins team, I don't think anyone should seriously consider that he'd have struggled to make the roster of a Leafs team that stunk out loud.

I wasn't implying that he wasn't capable. Maybe they just wouldn't have exposed him to the kind of pressure and scrutiny he would have faced here.

I meant to say that his development curve may have been longer in Toronto due to the lack of support and high expectations, not that he wouldn't make the team for 3 years.

 

[Kin]

You're my favorite new poster that I haven't really noticed before.

And they say rebranding doesn't work.

 

[Kin]

I wasn't implying that he wasn't capable. Maybe they just wouldn't have exposed him to the kind of pressure and scrutiny he would have faced here.

I meant to say that his development curve may have been longer in Toronto due to the lack of support and high expectations, not that he wouldn't make the team for 3 years.

I don't think that's valid. Seguin this year has played with good players but it's not like he's the third man on a line with Crosby and Malkin. For most of the year he was with Bergeron and I think Marchand or Kelly.

And he was going to have high expectations anywhere he went. I'd argue that the pressure he was under in playing for a team like Boston in the high pressure situations they were in would have at least matched the largely invented pressure people are quick to use as an excuse for the Leafs' struggles.

Edit: But either way, it's pointless to play the "What If?" game the way you're playing it. If the Leafs hadn't made the Kessel trade then Seguin might have developed worse but he may have developed better. They might not have Seguin at all. If we're going to use Seguin as shorthand for what they gave up for Kessel you have to deal with the realities of what Seguin is.

 

[Jalili]

You're looking at Seguin NOW, what he's doing in a completely different organization in a completely different stage of competitiveness, surrounded tons of support and not being leaned on to be carry any kind of load, on or off the ice, and assuming that he'd develop exactly the same way under completely different circumstances. I just don't think that's realistic. Like any regular person, players are a product of their environment.

For all we know, Seguin would come to Toronto, not even MAKE the roster in his draft year and take 3 years longer to develop to the level he is now, under heavy if not overwhelming scrutiny. By the time Seguin even saw his 1st NHL game he'd be around Kessel's age now with no experience under his belt, and no guarantee he'd turn into half the player he is now. Seguin is a really good player, but I don't think he's exceptional.

I think a prospect like Kadri, or whoever the Leafs draft this year, has a much better chance of success when the expectations are much lower, IE: being surrounded by other players who can carry more of the burden and have the expectations put on them. Any high pick is going to have heightened expectations on a team like the Leafs, but if you shield those players with other players who can take some of that burden away (Like Phil Kessel, who is expected to carry the offensive load for this team) I think your prospects have a much higher chance for success.

This is also why, IMO, Pittsburgh is the exception and not the rule.

I disagree with that mainly because Seguin was touted in his draft year, before the Bruins organization had any hand in his development, as being a can't miss star pick. He is who he is today mainly because he's an exceptional talent, not because the Bruins organization have turned him into something that he wasn't already projected to be as a 17 year old in his draft year.

I could understand that reasoning better if the Bruins had been handed a good but not great prospect and turned him into a star... but it's not as if Seguin has greatly exceeded expectations that people weren't expecting of him.

 

[TML fan]

I wasn't implying that he wasn't capable. Maybe they just wouldn't have exposed him to the kind of pressure and scrutiny he would have faced here.

I meant to say that his development curve may have been longer in Toronto due to the lack of support and high expectations, not that he wouldn't make the team for 3 years.

I don't think that's valid. Seguin this year has played with good players but it's not like he's the third man on a line with Crosby and Malkin. For most of the year he was with Bergeron and I think Marchand or Kelly.

And he was going to have high expectations anywhere he went. I'd argue that the pressure he was under in playing for a team like Boston in the high pressure situations they were in would have at least matched the largely invented pressure people are quick to use as an excuse for the Leafs' struggles

Marchand and Bergeron are a far cry from Bozak and Crabb. I've already acknowledged he is a good player, but even the best players benefit from playing with good players.

Seguin didn't even play in the 1st round and was virtually a non-factor in their playoff run. He also played a fairly limited role with the team all season last year. I think the benefit of him playing with the Bruins last year was largely his and not the team's.