The Doughty situation

[Kin]

I don't see this as a loss for Lombardi.

I don't think that anyone looks at this deal as a bad one for the Kings or one that Lombardi's stupid to sign. The public perception though, rightly or wrongly, isn't going to be great when you very publicly say you won't pay a guy a certain amount and then you do.

We'll never know, but ignoring the possibility of injury, I'll bet Doughty would have wound up with more cash if he had taken a 4-year $5-6million/year deal.

I don't think it's all that significant, particularly if Doughty gets a big chunk of money frontloaded in this deal.

Let's say, under your scenario, Doughty signed a 4 year, 24 million dollar deal and then, at 25, signed a 10 year/80 million dollar deal. That takes him to 35 and has him earning 104 million over 14 years. Let's say, though, that Doughty has this deal and then, at 28, signs a 6 year deal, 48 million dollar deal. That would see him earn....104 million over 14 years. But, because Doughty would get more money up front here he'd come out ahead.

Even if the market for Doughty as a free agent is ten million per than under the first scenario he'd make 124 million and under the second he'd make 116 million. Again, though, if this deal is front loaded Doughty would basically end up making the same. The free agent market for Doughty would have to be significantly more than ten million dollars a year for there to be a significant difference money wise.

 

[Tigger]

I don't see this as a loss for Lombardi.  Doughty wanted a deal that brought him right to his UFA year (a 4-year deal, right?).  He got an 8-year deal.  Lombardi only paid 200K more for those extra 4 UFA years.  We'll never know, but ignoring the possibility of injury, I'll bet Doughty would have wound up with more cash if he had taken a 4-year $5-6million/year deal.  In other words, in 4 years as a UFA, he'd garner more than $1-2 million more for those extra 4 UFA years.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he got $3+ million more -- $10 million per year ... I mean Richards starts out at $12 million per year, doesn't he and Doughty might be quite a bit more valuable at 25, heading in to his prime as possibly the best defenseman in the league.

No matter how good Doughty is, he won't get much more than 7M/year, even as a UFA so I'm not sure how much money he is leaving on the table.

Tough to say what the ufa market will be in 4 years though. Having bought 4 years of ufa eligibility I like this deal for Lombardi even if he has to suffer a little hoof'n'mouth short term.