The Official 2011/2012 Armchair GM thread

[maplesyrup]

I suppose, but, considering the Leafs' overall position as an organization and all, I'd rather bet on them right now. The Leafs aren't Cup contenders and adding Carter doesn't change that now or in the future. Build for the better team, not just for the better player.

I don't think Columbus were contenders either when they acquired him but I could see why they did... They hoped they would be while both Carter AND Nash were under contract and in their prime... Phaneuf and Kessel have what, 2 years left before they hit UFA? If Burke didn't think they could be contending by 2013/2014, then what was the point in making those deals?  The more I think about it, Burke better be making this team a whole lot better - quickly... and I think Carter could contribute to that.  Now, having said that, I'm not saying it has to be Carter but there better be a couple tricks of Burke's sleeves here... and soon. 

 

[bustaheims]

I don't think Columbus were contenders either when they acquired him but I could see why they did... They hoped they would be while both Carter AND Nash were under contract and in their prime... Phaneuf and Kessel have what, 2 years left before they hit UFA? If Burke didn't think they could be contending by 2013/2014, then what was the point in making those deals?  The more I think about it, Burke better be making this team a whole lot better - quickly... and I think Carter could contribute to that.  Now, having said that, I'm not saying it has to be Carter but there better be a couple tricks of Burke's sleeves here... and soon.

Well, Burke didn't negotiate Phaneuf's contract, but, the point of the deal was to get him into the organization while he was still young and build around him. Same with Kessel, who got a 5 year deal because, as has been covered over and over again, Burke doesn't like to negotiate contracts longer than that. It had nothing to do with any sort of contend by date or anything like that. Yes, Burke thought he could jumpstart the process and maybe get there more rapidly than others thought, but, I'm not sure he believes that anymore. When Phaneuf's and Kessel's contracts are set to expire, they'll be re-signed, I have no doubts about that.

 

[maplesyrup]

Well, Burke didn't negotiate Phaneuf's contract, but, the point of the deal was to get him into the organization while he was still young and build around him. Same with Kessel, who got a 5 year deal because, as has been covered over and over again, Burke doesn't like to negotiate contracts longer than that. It had nothing to do with any sort of contend by date or anything like that. Yes, Burke thought he could jumpstart the process and maybe get there more rapidly than others thought, but, I'm not sure he believes that anymore. When Phaneuf's and Kessel's contracts are set to expire, they'll be re-signed, I have no doubts about that.

See, I'm not even sure Burke will be the GM and what direction this team will be going by then. Personally, I'm absolutely clouded with doubt as to virtually every player's future with this team by then. Hopefully, we're a playoff team and there's reason to keep them. On the flip side, it could be another tear-down. - Hope it doesn't happen.

 

[bustaheims]

See, I'm not even sure Burke will be the GM and what direction this team will be going by then. Personally, I'm absolutely clouded with doubt as to virtually every player's future with this team by then. Hopefully, we're a playoff team and there's reason to keep them. On the flip side, it could be another tear-down. - Hope it doesn't happen.

I don't see Burke going anywhere, nor have there been any whispers that MLSE's ownership is at all dissatisfied with him. Unless things really fall apart, he'll still be here 2 seasons from now. I think you just have a case of typical Leaf fan pessimism.

 

[maplesyrup]

I don't see Burke going anywhere, nor have there been any whispers that MLSE's ownership is at all dissatisfied with him. Unless things really fall apart, he'll still be here 2 seasons from now. I think you just have a case of typical Leaf fan pessimism.

I haven't heard whispers either but he may just leave on his own accord. Who knows? As far as my pessimism goes, well, I'm not sure there's another remedy than results.

 

[bustaheims]

I haven't heard whispers either but he may just leave on his own accord. Who knows? As far as my pessimism goes, well, I'm not sure there's another remedy than results.

There's another - it's called patience.

 

[maplesyrup]

I haven't heard whispers either but he may just leave on his own accord. Who knows? As far as my pessimism goes, well, I'm not sure there's another remedy than results.

There's another - it's called patience.

Yes. It's a virtue. I know.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Burke said just a few weeks ago, or less, that he'll keep his current job as long as MLSE will let him. So if they aren't talking about him being a disappointment, I agree with Busta, he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[maplesyrup]

Burke said just a few weeks ago, or less, that he'll keep his current job as long as MLSE will let him. So if they aren't talking about him being a disappointment, I agree with Busta, he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I don't know... a lot can happen in 2+ years. Who knows where any of us will be.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Burke said just a few weeks ago, or less, that he'll keep his current job as long as MLSE will let him. So if they aren't talking about him being a disappointment, I agree with Busta, he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I don't know... a lot can happen in 2+ years. Who knows where any of us will be.

I'm just telling you what the horse's mouth said.

 

[maplesyrup]

* sigh *

Just dreaming of a Getzlaf/Grabovski 1/2 punch... Thought I'd share my happy moment.

 

[Erndog]

My buddy and I have been emailing each other back and forth about a Schenn/JVR swap.  I was throwing some ideas down quickly, but here's some pros and cons I came up with to that potential deal (exact email I sent):


I find it a tough call.  Several things tell me yes.  Several things tell me no. 

Yes do the deal:

-  Schenns good but he's sort of stagnated a bit.  Hasn't improved much in last year or so, however he is only 22.  JVR same thing actually but 6'3 forward who has scored 20 goals at 21, and dominated the playoffs at that age will probably turn into a 30 goal guy soon.  Also, JVR seems like a fit with our forward group.

-  Like I said, Defensive dmen tend to break down earlier in their careers.  Who knows if that happens with Schenn but I see more longetivty in a forward.

-  We have an abundance of D.  Even losing Schenn we still have Phaneuf, Gunnarson, Liles, Franson, Aulie, Komisarek and my boy Gardiner (who looks like a stud).  Holzer is apparently ready also AND we drafted Percy in the first round.  Thats 9 NHL ready (or almost ready) d-men even without Schenn.  No such depth on the forward group.

-  Kadri and Colborne are our 2 best forward prospects and they are developing slowly.  Nice to augment them with JVR.  He's a little different style than both of them as well.

-  JVR is signed for 6 years after this for $4.25M.  IFFFF he reachs potential and scores 30 that is a nice deal for a while... but not overly long like a Carter, Richards, etc.  Hes got a good contract that would be a steal if he reaches full potential.


No to the deal:

-  So far, JVRs best has "only" been 20 goals.  Schenns best has been a monster dman who has led all dmen in hits and top 10 in blocked shots.  That could very well continue for a while, how long is the question though.  Probably til late 20's, early 30's at least.  10 years of that would be great though and you can replace goals up front more easily than a defensive dman who can log 22+ min (or at least shown in the past he can).

-  Schenn has been groomed and touted as a possible future captain.  He's a leader, a warrior, never whines or complains, a real trooper.  We dont have many home grown talent like that and havent had something like that in forever.

-  IF we do trade Schenn and get a winger, thats fine, however, that precludes us from probably making OTHER trades.  Know what I mean?  We need a #1 center.  Everyone in the world sees this.  If we trade Schenn and get JVR, fine... however, what could we ever trade to get that 1st line center?  Things become a lot more difficult to trade AND our depth on D takes a big hit so we cant trade Franson/Gardiner, etc.  Essentially, Schenn is our most valuable commodity so maybe look to trade him for a real big need (#1 C)?  However that might not be out there for some time.

-  Like anything, if JVR doesnt work out here and Schenn works out in Philly we could be kicking ourselves.  Better the devil you know than the devil you dont right? 



Anyways, thoughts?  I'm torn on that type of move.

 

[maplesyrup]

Good post.. Under my "no to the deal" I might have added JVR's concussion as a concern but it's not a huge deal for me. When Stewart's name came up, in a swap for Schenn deal here last week, I called it a good old-fashioned hockey trade. JVR for Schenn strikes me as the same sort of thing... Value for value / Team need for team need. Yeah, I do this deal without much remorse.

 

[Zee]

My buddy and I have been emailing each other back and forth about a Schenn/JVR swap.  I was throwing some ideas down quickly, but here's some pros and cons I came up with to that potential deal (exact email I sent):


I find it a tough call.  Several things tell me yes.  Several things tell me no. 

Yes do the deal:

-  Schenns good but he's sort of stagnated a bit.  Hasn't improved much in last year or so, however he is only 22.  JVR same thing actually but 6'3 forward who has scored 20 goals at 21, and dominated the playoffs at that age will probably turn into a 30 goal guy soon.  Also, JVR seems like a fit with our forward group.

-  Like I said, Defensive dmen tend to break down earlier in their careers.  Who knows if that happens with Schenn but I see more longetivty in a forward.

-  We have an abundance of D.  Even losing Schenn we still have Phaneuf, Gunnarson, Liles, Franson, Aulie, Komisarek and my boy Gardiner (who looks like a stud).  Holzer is apparently ready also AND we drafted Percy in the first round.  Thats 9 NHL ready (or almost ready) d-men even without Schenn.  No such depth on the forward group.

-  Kadri and Colborne are our 2 best forward prospects and they are developing slowly.  Nice to augment them with JVR.  He's a little different style than both of them as well.

-  JVR is signed for 6 years after this for $4.25M.  IFFFF he reachs potential and scores 30 that is a nice deal for a while... but not overly long like a Carter, Richards, etc.  Hes got a good contract that would be a steal if he reaches full potential.


No to the deal:

-  So far, JVRs best has "only" been 20 goals.  Schenns best has been a monster dman who has led all dmen in hits and top 10 in blocked shots.  That could very well continue for a while, how long is the question though.  Probably til late 20's, early 30's at least.  10 years of that would be great though and you can replace goals up front more easily than a defensive dman who can log 22+ min (or at least shown in the past he can).

-  Schenn has been groomed and touted as a possible future captain.  He's a leader, a warrior, never whines or complains, a real trooper.  We dont have many home grown talent like that and havent had something like that in forever.

-  IF we do trade Schenn and get a winger, thats fine, however, that precludes us from probably making OTHER trades.  Know what I mean?  We need a #1 center.  Everyone in the world sees this.  If we trade Schenn and get JVR, fine... however, what could we ever trade to get that 1st line center?  Things become a lot more difficult to trade AND our depth on D takes a big hit so we cant trade Franson/Gardiner, etc.  Essentially, Schenn is our most valuable commodity so maybe look to trade him for a real big need (#1 C)?  However that might not be out there for some time.

-  Like anything, if JVR doesnt work out here and Schenn works out in Philly we could be kicking ourselves.  Better the devil you know than the devil you dont right? 



Anyways, thoughts?  I'm torn on that type of move.

I don't like Schenn's style of play for the NHL going forward.  The game has sped up, this team is a fast puck-moving style of team that relies on foot speed.  Schenn would have been the perfect D man say 15 years ago, but his type of game isn't what you want now or going forward.  I think you need to have guys on the back end that can skate really well, and have some potential upside for points, Schenn has neither of those.  So I would be all for trading him.  I don't believe that he'll come back to "haunt" the Leafs as I've heard some Leafs fans suggest.  With our speedy forwards he would have a tough time containing them on a consistent basis.  Yes he seems like a really great guy, never complains, but I just think he doesn't fit into our team style of play at all.

 

[Erndog]

Good post.. Under my "no to the deal" I might have added JVR's concussion as a concern but it's not a huge deal for me. When Stewart's name came up, in a swap for Schenn deal here last week, I called it a good old-fashioned hockey trade. JVR for Schenn strikes me as the same sort of thing... Value for value / Team need for team need. Yeah, I do this deal without much remorse.

Right.  The concussion.  It's not something I'm too worried about but I guess it's certainly something to keep in mind.  I'd almost want to see him return for a bit first.

It's certainly a hockey deal no doubt.  I like deals like that.

 

[bustaheims]

While I feel like I'm in the minority here, I still don't see a straight up Schenn for JvR swap being good for the Leafs. Not that JvR isn't a good talent, but, I feel he's become fairly over-rated and he comes with some warts. While this concussion is his first major injury, he has yet to get through a season without being hurt in some fashion. For a guy who doesn't play a particularly physical game, already having some injury issues is a major concern to me. If does ever ramp up the physical side of his game, I get the feeling his body won't be able to handle it. On top of that, I think "dominated the playoffs" thing is really overstated. He was good, there's no doubt about that, but I really don't ever remember him being dominant. On top of that, a good playoff run often doesn't translate into long-term success. Look at guys like Ville Leino, Fernando Pisani and Ruslan Fedotenko.

Fedotenko's might actually be a nice parallel for JvR - they're similarly sized players that put up similar production at their respective ages (JvR's is a little better, but, Fedotenko was also playing during the clutch & grab pre-louckout era). JvR comes with more potential than Fedotenko, but, right now, that's all it is, and, to be entirely honest, I'm really starting to question whether he'll reach that potential and be much more than a 20 goal, 40 point guy on a regular basis.

 

[Redleaf]

While I feel like I'm in the minority here, I still don't see a straight up Schenn for JvR swap being good for the Leafs. Not that JvR isn't a good talent, but, I feel he's become fairly over-rated and he comes with some warts. While this concussion is his first major injury, he has yet to get through a season without being hurt in some fashion. For a guy who doesn't play a particularly physical game, already having some injury issues is a major concern to me. If does ever ramp up the physical side of his game, I get the feeling his body won't be able to handle it. On top of that, I think "dominated the playoffs" thing is really overstated. He was good, there's no doubt about that, but I really don't ever remember him being dominant. On top of that, a good playoff run often doesn't translate into long-term success. Look at guys like Ville Leino, Fernando Pisani and Ruslan Fedotenko.

Fedotenko's might actually be a nice parallel for JvR - they're similarly sized players that put up similar production at their respective ages (JvR's is a little better, but, Fedotenko was also playing during the clutch & grab pre-louckout era). JvR comes with more potential than Fedotenko, but, right now, that's all it is, and, to be entirely honest, I'm really starting to question whether he'll reach that potential and be much more than a 20 goal, 40 point guy on a regular basis.

Alright. Now lets hear your forecast for Schenn.

 

[Erndog]

While I feel like I'm in the minority here, I still don't see a straight up Schenn for JvR swap being good for the Leafs. Not that JvR isn't a good talent, but, I feel he's become fairly over-rated and he comes with some warts. While this concussion is his first major injury, he has yet to get through a season without being hurt in some fashion. For a guy who doesn't play a particularly physical game, already having some injury issues is a major concern to me. If does ever ramp up the physical side of his game, I get the feeling his body won't be able to handle it. On top of that, I think "dominated the playoffs" thing is really overstated. He was good, there's no doubt about that, but I really don't ever remember him being dominant. On top of that, a good playoff run often doesn't translate into long-term success. Look at guys like Ville Leino, Fernando Pisani and Ruslan Fedotenko.

Fedotenko's might actually be a nice parallel for JvR - they're similarly sized players that put up similar production at their respective ages (JvR's is a little better, but, Fedotenko was also playing during the clutch & grab pre-louckout era). JvR comes with more potential than Fedotenko, but, right now, that's all it is, and, to be entirely honest, I'm really starting to question whether he'll reach that potential and be much more than a 20 goal, 40 point guy on a regular basis.

Well, I remember JVR pretty vividly and I'd say he dominated.  Regardless, you point out JVRs warts, it's not as if Schenn doesn't have any either.  The guy has zero offense to his game, and while people like to point out he's young and that could come, it likely won't.  Also, Schenns style is more condusive to injuries than JVR's.  Schenn plays a physical game there is no doubt, and those types of dmen tend to break down faster.  Volchenkov, Warrener, Witt, Komisarek, Regehr, etc... their shelf life as a top tier physical defenceman is less than a decade no doubt.  After that they become a regular, dman like a Chris Phillips who can't compete nearly as effectively as they once did.  While he's big and strong today at a young age that generally doesn't come without a price in the future. 

If you're questioning JVR's potential you must be starting to worry a little bit about Kadri's and Colbornes no?  At least JVR scored 20 in the NHL and played very well in the playoffs at their age.

Like I said, I'm torn. 

 

[bustaheims]

Alright. Now lets hear your forecast for Schenn.

It's harder to find good statistical comparisons for defensive blueliners, but, I still think the Adam Foote comparison fits. Foote was a little shaky in his early years as well, but, he didn't contribute quite as much offensively as Schenn has so far (though, the difference isn't drastic and, like with JvR and Fedotenko, can be largely attributed to their era). Foote was heavy-hitting, shot-blocking guy, much like Schenn is, who didn't necessarily skate all that well and took some time to learn to make the proper adjustments.

 

[bustaheims]

If you're questioning JVR's potential you must be starting to worry a little bit about Kadri's and Colbornes no?  At least JVR scored 20 in the NHL and played very well in the playoffs at their age.

I'm not, because the situations are very different. For one, JvR's now in his third full professional season and the 5th since his draft year. Kadri's in his 2nd and 3rd respectively, while Colborne's in his 2nd and 4th. On top of that, I feel like both of them have shown more progression over that time than JvR has shown, and they're both being put in better situations to develop than the one I feel JvR is in right now. They have less pressure on them, and, outside of what's coming from us Leaf fans, less hype surrounding them. JvR becomes a $4.25M player next season. Neither Kadri nor Colborne will have the pressure or the expectations to produce at a rate that comes with that level of salary and cap commitment.