• For users coming over from tmlfans.ca your username will remain the same but you will need to use the password reset feature (check your spam folder) on the login page in order to set your password. If you encounter issues, email Rick couchmanrick@gmail.com

The Official 2011/2012 Armchair GM thread

princedpw said:
[Edit:  I probably should have read further in the thread before posting this comment .... sorry if it is redundant ...]

It would not even cross my mind to trade Connolly in a Lupul-type deal right now. 

First, Connolly has a lot of value to the leafs for the remainder of this season.  If Bozak or Grabbo get injured, he can fill in.  He can play on the PK and the point on the PP.  He is the leafs 6th highest scoring forward despite the fact that he has been playing on the 3rd line with Crabbe and Lombardi.  (Remember how productive Kessel was last year with Crabbe on his wing?)  He's on a 50 point pace over 82 games.  He plays decently on defense and makes a good 3rd-line center, though of course, he is overpaid for that.

Second, if you are worried about the Leaf's salary structure for 2012-2013, remember that there are a huge number of variables to work out between then and now.  We should let some of those variables work themselves out before committing ourselves to a trade where we give up assets to get rid of a guy.  We don't know what the cap or the cap rules are going to be.  We don't know if there will be a buyout period between CBAs like there was last time -- we might be able to get out of Komisarek's or Connolly's contract for free without giving up any assets.  We don't know if we will resign grabbo or what he will cost.  We don't know what other players might be available for trade or who might occupy Connolly cap space.  We might guess at some of these things but it makes sense deferring making highly costly decisions (such as trading a good young player to get rid of Connolly) until we know.

Finally, I don't think Connolly's contract is really all that onerous.  Burke gave him precisely the deal I would have -- he paid a big price for a very short-term commitment.  2-way centers who can score at a decent clip like Connolly are hard to come by.  Every off-season there are typically a number of teams looking for better centers than what they have and there are typically not enough high-quality centers to satisfy everyone.  (This is really the only way to explain Montreal's deal for Gomez.)  This coming off-season (ignoring the possible disruptions and turmoil the CBA negotiations will cause), I do not think it will be difficult to unload Connolly if that is what the leafs need to do.  There will be a team who will want to try out the guy for 1 year, hoping he'll get 50-60 points on the second line on their team -- it is very low risk and decent reward.  As an example (from capgeek), if you project a 64-million cap then LA has 14-million in cap space and 19 players signed.  LA currently sitting last in the league in goals for. Now, naturally LA will try for Parise first (IF Parise makes it to the open market) but they may not get him.  Even if they do, perhaps they can afford both a $7 million Parise and a $4.5 million Connolly.  Anyway, that's just one example.  Connolly's potential for 50-60 points, 1-year contract and the normal lack of quality centers around the league should make it possible for Toronto to ditch Connolly without too much trouble if they choose to (IMHO).  Though, lots could change depending on the details of the new CBA.
Click to expand...

Well said on all accounts. Connelly is overpaid, but he is not useless nor is he preventing the team from making any moves at the moment.
 
Sarge said:
My hope is he has some.

Edit: But I don't think he has enough on his own... that's why I add the kicker.
Click to expand...

But then I don't understand the deal you're trying to put together. If Connolly has value then there's no need to bribe a team to take him. Then it becomes a matter of pegging the value of Connolly and the value of, say, D'Amigo and trying to figure out what that gets you. At which point it's nothing like a Beauchemin-type deal and is just a trade-type trade.
 
Saint Nik said:
Sarge said:
My hope is he has some.

Edit: But I don't think he has enough on his own... that's why I add the kicker.
Click to expand...

But then I don't understand the deal you're trying to put together. If Connolly has value then there's no need to bribe a team to take him.
Click to expand...

I think you might have to.
 
Sarge said:
bustaheims said:
Sarge said:
Ryan, D'Amigo, Gysbers... There's a long way between Carrick and Colborne/Kadri.
Click to expand...

None of those guys get it done either, unless is an almost equally bad contract coming back, in which case, what's the point? Every team has equivalent prospects.
Click to expand...

It makes sense if the contract coming back is expiring.
Click to expand...

Sarge, I don't think you've said why trading Connelly with a good prospect is preferable to waiving him to the minors IF (and that's a big if right now) the cap space is needed.
 
Sarge said:
bustaheims said:
Sarge said:
It makes sense if the contract coming back is expiring.
Click to expand...

Sure, but, you're not getting an expiring contract without adding more than Ryan/D'Amigo/etc.
Click to expand...

If that's the case (and I don't know for sure that it is) then maybe you do.
Click to expand...

Why would you? Connelly is not hurting the team, he provides good depth and good insurance in case Bozak or Grabs gets hurt, the team doesn't need the cap space right now, so where is the incentive?

And if the team does need cap space in the future then why not waive him?
 
Chazz-Micheal Liles said:
Between Connoly, Armstrong and Komisarek that's over 12 million dollar in cap space the Leafs are effectively wasting. That's awful
Click to expand...

I'd say the replacement values for those guys are perhaps:

Connolly: 3 million

Armstrong: 2 million (a little tough to say since he has been injured and every team has injuries; this is not something Burke can avoid)

Komi: 1.5 million

So the leafs are wasting ~5.5 million on these guys.

On the other hand, Gunnarsson, Bozak, Lupul, Grabbo, Gardiner, Franson, Kessel are probably playing above their pay level.  It is hard to make every contract a steal.  I do not that the success rate on UFAs seems to be lower than on guys you bring up yourself. This makes sense as you have much more information on how the guys you have brought up yourself fit in with your players and system.  (And the UFA free market prices inflate player salaries to the max of what any one GM will pay.)
 
Sarge said:
Saint Nik said:
But then I don't understand the deal you're trying to put together. If Connolly has value then there's no need to bribe a team to take him.
Click to expand...

I think you might have to.
Click to expand...

Why? You just said that you think Connolly adds value to a trade. You don't have to bribe teams to take on players who have their own positive value.
 
groundskeeper willie said:
Sarge said:
bustaheims said:
Sarge said:
Ryan, D'Amigo, Gysbers... There's a long way between Carrick and Colborne/Kadri.
Click to expand...

None of those guys get it done either, unless is an almost equally bad contract coming back, in which case, what's the point? Every team has equivalent prospects.
Click to expand...

It makes sense if the contract coming back is expiring.
Click to expand...

Sarge, I don't think you've said why trading Connelly with a good prospect is preferable to waiving him to the minors IF (and that's a big if right now) the cap space is needed.
Click to expand...

Ah. Okay... Because I think Connolly + a prospect might get you say, an expiring contract who could help us make a bit of a push here. 
 
Sarge said:
Ah. Okay... Because I think Connolly + a prospect might get you say, an expiring contract who could help us make a bit of a push here.
Click to expand...

Well Connelly is already helping make a push this season. Depth at centre is a very good thing. I doubt you get a guy that would have more of an impact. Maybe if you provided an example of such a player, but I don't think he exists.

I think you are putting far too much emphasis on getting an expiring contract.
 
Or, maybe it doesn't need to be an expiring contract. If Connolly has more value than I think he does (which I guess could be the case) then maybe you get a guy with some term for the package?
 
Sarge said:
If that's the case (and I don't know for sure that it is) then maybe you do.
Click to expand...

Well, look at it this way, why would a team essentially trade away $5M in cap space for next season to add an okay prospect? I mean, unless they really value Connolly (which, considering his production in terms of his paycheque, is unlikely), that's just not going to happen. It would have to be a much better prospect than any of the guys you've brought up so far if the Leafs are going to be free and clear of that space next season or bring in someone who would actually be more useful or has a noticeably better price performance than Connolly.
 
Sarge said:
Because I think trading Connolly on his own doesn't get you a good enough return.
Click to expand...

Ok, so you could trade Connolly on his own, right? So, again, you don't need to bribe a team to take him, right?
 
Corn Flake said:
I don't think Connolly is that big of an issue.
Click to expand...

Me neither. If producing points was all there was to the game then we could also point to the the one that got away, Brad Richards, with all of 34 points and a surprisingly low +/- with the Rangers.

Of course that's not all there is to it.

Connolly, like a lot of free agents is having a tough time producing offensive numbers in his first year after his deal but happens to be six in the league among forwards for blocked shots and has been very effective on the pk unit, all while playing 3 full less minutes toi/g than Richards ( who isn't killing penalties in New York ) and as a secondary option on the PP.

Connolly is 59th in toi/g where Richards is 14th and EStoi/g is a bigger divide, Richards is 8th where Connolly is 71st.

It's nice having him for insurance and for his ability to anchor the third line, for Toronto he's an expensive luxury they really needed to bridge the gap for some of the kids coming up and he cost them nothing, to trade a young prospect to get rid of him is kind of the opposite reason they acquired him.

Connolly is just fine where he is.
 
Sarge said:
Or, maybe it doesn't need to be an expiring contract. If Connolly has more value than I think he does (which I guess could be the case) then maybe you get a guy with some term for the package?
Click to expand...

If you are looking to trade Connelly for hockey reasons then I think you have to wait until the off season before that happens. In the mean time, think of Connelly as insurance for the stretch run.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

About Us

This website is NOT associated with the Toronto Maple Leafs or the NHL.


It is operated by Rick Couchman and Jeff Lewis.
Back
Top