TOP 5 PICK!!!

[Corn Flake]

With the offensive minded options up front and even on defense likely to be available, passing on all of that to take the big least risk / least reward choice in Dumba doesn't seem like the right choice.

That's part of it as well. The Leafs aren't going to improve to the level we want them to by making super safe choices like that. While I don't want them to go for boom or bust guy, they need to take the risk on someone with a higher ceiling. There's already a safe #5 pick on the blueline.

One or more of Galcheneyuk, Forsberg or Grigorenko will most likely be available at #5, and how you pass on any of those guys at that spot is a bit beyond me.  And right behind them is, Teravainen with possibly the best raw skills in the draft.  All of those guys project to be primary offensive weapons with varying degrees of strengths and weaknesses.

That said, Dumba's offense took a big leap forward this year, and he does get miscast as a stay-at-home guy, but it doesn't seem as though he will make a name for himself in that regard in the NHL... even so, the Leafs are quite flush with offensive d-men, maybe one more if Schultz lands here, so going that route just seems so redundant it would make my head spin.

Griffin Reinhart is the big ogre of a d-man I would be blown away if they settled with. 

 

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

ESPN Insider posted their top 50 2012 NHL draft prospects . . .  . . Have provided a summary of the top 10 below;

1
Nail Yakupov
Shoots: Left
Position: RW
Team: Sarnia (OHL)
Height: 5-10 1/2
Weight: 189 pounds

Due to injuries, Yakupov played only 42 games. Even though there is much debate over the selection of Russian-born players within some NHL front offices, the consensus No. 1 overall pick all season long holds on. There is too much upside to this competitive point producer.
Previous Ranking: 1

2
Filip Forsberg
Shoots: Right
Position: C
Team: Leksand (SWE-2)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 181 pounds

Forsberg has good size with lots of talent and determination to his game. At the U-18s he started for Sweden, and there's something to be said for having the puck on his stick for long periods of time per shift. There aren't a lot of prospects that combine his skill and size.
Previous Ranking: 2

3
Mathew Dumba
Shoots: Right
Position: D
Team: Red Deer (WHL)
Height: 5-11 3/4
Weight: 183 pounds
A dynamic but undersized D-man, Dumba has special qualities that grabbed my eye and made me differ from Central Scouting's final ranking (No. 11 among North American skaters). He led all scorers from the backline at the U-18s and continued his dominant physical play with open-ice hits. I've said it before and I'll say it again: He reminds me of Los Angeles Kings blueliner Drew Doughty.
Previous Ranking: 4

4
Ryan Murray
Shoots: Left
Position: D
Team: Everett (WHL)
Height: 6-0 1/2
Weight: 201 pounds
Character and steady play have taken this kid all the way to a spot on Canada's national men's team during the recent IIHF World Championships. Strong for his size, positionally he finds a way to make an impact on the game with excellent instincts.
Previous Ranking: 6

5
Teuvo Teravainen
Shoots: Left
Position: LW
Team: Jokerit (FIN-Jr.)
Height: 5-11
Weight: 165 pounds
Teravainen has magical hands and the vision to go along with his vast puck skills. Played some center, and I feel that is a better position for this playmaking forward. He gets knocked down due to lack of strength, but his skills are too exciting to pass up. His overall intensity and determination will improve when he becomes stronger over time. He's a big riser from our last rankings, jumping up from No. 18.
Previous Ranking: 18

6
Mikhail Grigorenko
Shoots: Left
Position: C
Team: Quebec (QMJHL)
Height: 6-3 1/4
Weight: 200 pounds
Tremendous upside with skills, size and playmaking ability. He's guilty of not showing up with a strong effort enough too frequently, though. Recently it has been reported that he was playing with mononucleosis down the stretch, which could be the reason rather than his character. If teams ultimately believe it's the latter reason, they may take a pass. His best shift is as good as any player in this draft, and he was the consensus No. 2 overall pick before slipping down the stretch.
Previous Ranking: 3

7
Cody Ceci
Shoots: Right
Position: D
Team: Ottawa (OHL)
Height: 6-2 1/2
Weight: 207 pounds
Ceci quietly had 60 points in 64 games. It may have been quiet because it is his defensive game that is so attractive. He's strong on the puck and possesses a solid one-on-one game. His shot from the point is a weapon. Perhaps the most NHL-ready player in the draft, he could be targeted by a team that needs an impact blueliner today rather than down the road.
Previous Ranking: 13

8
Griffin Reinhart
Shoots: Left
Position: D
Team: Edmonton (WHL)
Height: 6-3 3/4
Weight: 204 pounds
An impressive skater for his size, Reinhart also has good puck-moving ability and the ability to process and make decisions under pressure. His upside is great but his overall game needs to add some sandpaper. He has the potential to develop into a big-minute player with a two-way game.
Previous Ranking: 9

9
Alex Galchenyuk
Shoots: Left
Position: C
Team: Sarnia (OHL)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 198 pounds
A major knee injury kept Galchenyuk out of the lineup for most of the season. Scouts are projecting him off his body of work as an underage player, the summer Ivan Hlinka tournament with Team USA (he's of Russian ancestry but a U.S. citizen) and his push to get back for the CHL playoffs. In those glimpses though there is no denying his high-end skill set.
Previous Ranking: 7

10
Morgan Rielly
Shoots: Left
Position: D
Team: Moose Jaw (WHL)
Height: 5-11 1/2
Weight: 190 pounds
Another player who missed most of the season with a major knee injury. Rielly tried hard to get back for part of the playoffs, but his play at the U-18s a year ago proved he is an elite talent on the back end. He reminds me of Chicago Blackhawks D Duncan Keith with his upbeat approach to the game.
Previous Ranking: 5

 

[CarltonTheBear]

An Islanders beat reporter wrote that they're more likely to go with a Teravainen or Forsberg as opposed to Galy or Grigo. If that's the case, then I wouldn't be surprised to see the draft go somewhat like this:

1) Edmonton - Yakupov/Murray
2) Columbus - Yakupov/Murray
3) Montreal - Grigorenko/Galchenyuk
4) Islanders - Forsberg/Teravainen
5) Toronto - Grigorenko/Galchenyuk

Which would be fine by me. Then again like others have said, this could be the most unpredictable draft in awhile.

 

[maplesyrup]

My feeling is that this Islanders beat reporter is on track.

 

[bustaheims]

Wouldn't surprise me if the Islanders go for Teravainen and the Habs for Grigorenko, leaving the Leafs to choose between Galchenyuk and Forsberg, in which case, I'd go with Forsberg.

 

[maplesyrup]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

This is pretty much the only situation in which I would consider trading down a few picks and grabbing Dumba or Trouba. With that said, I know very little about Teravainen.

 

[maplesyrup]

What about slightly further down for Ceci or Reinhart? Maybe you'd be able to get both of Buffalo's or Washington's first rounders, take one of those guys and still have the additional pick. With that said though, I still think I'd make the pick @5.

 

[bustaheims]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

In that case (as unlikely as I think it is), I go with Murray. Teravainen is probably the biggest boom or bust prospect at the top end of this draft. He's either going to be awesome or he's not going to be able to crack an NHL lineup on a regular basis.

 

[KW Sluggo]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

In that case (as unlikely as I think it is), I go with Murray. Teravainen is probably the biggest boom or bust prospect at the top end of this draft. He's either going to be awesome or he's not going to be able to crack an NHL lineup on a regular basis.

Agreed: Murray

Move a blueliner if need be to get a forward or another 1st rounder, but based on the premise given, Murray would be the best player available and you just have to take him.

 

[Corn Flake]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

I would smack my head against a wall, then trade down.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

I would smack my head against a wall, then trade down.

Depending on how much trading down garners, I think I'd have to seriously consider doing the same in that scenario. But I think Burke either trades up to secure their guy, or we get who we want at #5. If he trades the pick, he better be getting one heck of a player back IMO. I don't even want to think about the reverberations through Toronto if that were to happen..

 

[ZBBM]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

I would smack my head against a wall, then trade down.

Me too.  This draft is all about getting a center (or Yakupov).  I'd take 2 lower picks over the 5.

But this isn't going to happen.  EDM will take a dman.

 

[Corn Flake]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

I would smack my head against a wall, then trade down.

Depending on how much trading down garners, I think I'd have to seriously consider doing the same in that scenario. But I think Burke either trades up to secure their guy, or we get who we want at #5. If he trades the pick, he better be getting one heck of a player back IMO. I don't even want to think about the reverberations through Toronto if that were to happen..

It's so hard to predict what could happen here but the top 5 could change so much in the end.  Every time I try to figure it out, my head spins.  The "known" factors I think we can count on are:

1. EDM: 95% chance they draft a d-man.  Can trade down 1-2 spots and still get Murray or anyone else.  They will trade down almost for certain. 

2. CBJ: absolutely have to walk away with a franchise piece.  Yakupov fits that bill, Forsberg second choice.

3. MTL: holes to fill everywhere but in goal.  Could see them trade for #1 to get Yak, or down and take a d-man. 

4. NYI: completely unpredictable, as always. Logic would suggest a d-man of which there are many safe choices, but Teravainen just screams being NYI pick. So does . See them as least likely to trade up. They will sit still and do something they probably shouldn't do with the pick.

5. TOR: needs to walk away with a top end forward, centre preferred. Most likely to want to trade up?  They probably should be but their knowledge of what other teams are going to take will influence a move.

I have this goofy feeling that Tor and MTL end up swapping picks.  I just see that as the most likely thing to happen.  Edm will trade down but won't go all the way to #5 unless they KNOW Murray will be there, and Burke doesn't need to go to #1 to get the guy he wants (we all of course assume is Galchenyuk).

 

[ZBBM]

Burke doesn't need to go to #1 to get the guy he wants (we all of course assume is Galchenyuk).

We know he doesn't want Forsberg or Grigorienko?

 

[Corn Flake]

Burke doesn't need to go to #1 to get the guy he wants (we all of course assume is Galchenyuk).

We know he doesn't want Forsberg or Grigorienko?

We don't know what he wants... just seems we've come to the assumption that Galchenyuk is the guy, mostly just by putting need (centre) + the player together.

He could want one of the d-men, which discussed yesterday would come as a bit of a shock and disappointment to several of us.

 

[bustaheims]

Burke doesn't need to go to #1 to get the guy he wants (we all of course assume is Galchenyuk).

We know he doesn't want Forsberg or Grigorienko?

My guess is the KHL issue might make him a little gun shy on Gigorenko, though, I doubt Montreal passes on him, to be honest.

 

[lamajama]

Here's a thought.... What if Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg go top 4. - Do you take Teravainen or Murray? I think it has to be Murray, no?

I would smack my head against a wall, then trade down.

Depending on how much trading down garners, I think I'd have to seriously consider doing the same in that scenario. But I think Burke either trades up to secure their guy, or we get who we want at #5. If he trades the pick, he better be getting one heck of a player back IMO. I don't even want to think about the reverberations through Toronto if that were to happen..

I have this goofy feeling that Tor and MTL end up swapping picks.  I just see that as the most likely thing to happen.  Edm will trade down but won't go all the way to #5 unless they KNOW Murray will be there, and Burke doesn't need to go to #1 to get the guy he wants (we all of course assume is Galchenyuk).

And then maybe Burke moves the #3 to Edm for the #1. Edm would feel a lot better at 3 than 5

 

[Corn Flake]

And then maybe Burke moves the #3 to Edm for the #1. Edm would feel a lot better at 3 than 5

If he is gunning for Yakpov, I could see that.  Yak isn't going to be picked later than #2 so he would have to beat CBJ to the punch.  Now that I think about it, CBJ flipping with EDM makes some sense, as they would secure Yak and not have to worry about some other team flipping up to #1 and grabbing him.

As for CBJ being afraid to draft Russian players because of the past, I don't buy that crap for one second.

 

[Bullfrog]

And then maybe Burke moves the #3 to Edm for the #1. Edm would feel a lot better at 3 than 5

If he is gunning for Yakpov, I could see that.  Yak isn't going to be picked later than #2 so he would have to beat CBJ to the punch.  Now that I think about it, CBJ flipping with EDM makes some sense, as they would secure Yak and not have to worry about some other team flipping up to #1 and grabbing him.

As for CBJ being afraid to draft Russian players because of the past, I don't buy that crap for one second.

Agreed. It's one thing if the player's never stepped foot in North America, but these guys are playing in the CHL.