Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Kulemin and a 1st would be as far as I would entertain I think and that's only because of Frattin's emergence. I said Bozak plus other assets, to offset what Bozak lacks in value, assuming we'd still have to add a really good prospect to the mix.

I really like what Kulemin brings, so it'd be tough to let him go. Nonis would have to be sure that O'Rielly is the guy.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Would you give up a first rounder in this shortened season?  The draft is so close, and Leafs are so close to being a bottom feeder again.  Let's not have history repeat itself.

O'Rielly is young enough for me not to worry all that much, especially if he could help us drop the position of that pick. I hear history in my ear, but that's the risk of making good moves when the availability is there.

 

[Champ Kind]

Agree with Zee - please, please, PLEASE (!!!) don't trade the first round pick this year.

 

[Erndog]

Would you give up a first rounder in this shortened season?  The draft is so close, and Leafs are so close to being a bottom feeder again.  Let's not have history repeat itself.

O'Rielly is young enough for me not to worry all that much, especially if he could help us drop the position of that pick. I hear history in my ear, but that's the risk of making good moves when the availability is there.

Agreed.

If the season were to end today we would forfeit the 9th pick to Colorado.  You gotta bet (hope?) too that adding ROR and getting Lupul/Gardiner back hopefully it's not even that high.  Maybe the 12th or 13th pick (for example).

ROR would instantly become probably one of our top 3-4 most valuable forwards and, believe it or not, would be our youngest forward.  Younger than Kadri, Frattin, Kessel, JVR, etc.

So it's basically trading a pick in the 8-14 range for a "proven" prospect.

I'm not saying I do the deal in a heartbeat but it's one I would probably lean towards making sure.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

How about an insane offer sheet for O'Reilly?  Keep the picks and assets, all it costs is money.  All this financial muscle MLSE has, and I haven't seen them flex any of it.

 

[bustaheims]

Would you give up a first rounder in this shortened season?  The draft is so close, and Leafs are so close to being a bottom feeder again.  Let's not have history repeat itself.

This. That 1st round pick only comes into play for a franchise player or legit 1st line centre 25 or younger. For everyone and anyone else, it should be off limits. O'Reilly is a nice player and all, but we're talking about a guy who has one season where he's shown himself to be anything more than a 3rd liner. He's not the type of player a team in the Leafs' position gives up what could easily be a top 5 pick for, even with him on the team and Lupul making it back with enough time to do anything. There are equivalent or better C prospects available where the Leafs will be drafting. They don't need a guy who's more developed - they're not close to contending. Save the pick, draft a similar or better prospect and save some money on the cap with 3 years of the guy on his ELC.

 

[bustaheims]

How about an insane offer sheet for O'Reilly?  Keep the picks and assets, all it costs is money and draft picks.  All this financial muscle MLSE has, and I haven't seen them flex any of it.

To get O'Reilly on an offer sheet so that he can play for the Leafs this season, the Leafs would sacrifice picks in the 2013 draft.

 

[princedpw]

If the goal is to win, does it not make sense at this point to drop Komarov to the 4th line, bumping one of the useless bruisers (ie: defensive and offensive black holes Orr, McLaren) to the bench.  And then bring up Connolly to play with Nazem and Frattin?  Wouldn't Connolly help both offensively and defensively on Nazem's wing?  And certainly Komarov is upgrade over the guy he replaces on the 4th line?  Connolly's had a few games with the Marlies to get back in to shape, if that was the issue.  I guess I find it hard to believe that he has regressed from 2nd-liner to non-NHL player so quickly ... though I haven't actually watched the Marlies.

I'd also consider Mcclement on the 3rd and Komarov + Stecks + bag-of-fists on the 4th if there is some kind of persistent hate on for connolly.

 

[Deebo]

If the goal is to win, does it not make sense at this point to drop Komarov to the 4th line, bumping one of the useless bruisers (ie: defensive and offensive black holes Orr, McLaren) to the bench.  And then bring up Connolly to play with Nazem and Frattin?  Wouldn't Connolly help both offensively and defensively on Nazem's wing?  And certainly Komarov is upgrade over the guy he replaces on the 4th line?  Connolly's had a few games with the Marlies to get back in to shape, if that was the issue.  I guess I find it hard to believe that he has regressed from 2nd-liner to non-NHL player so quickly ... though I haven't actually watched the Marlies.

I'd also consider Mcclement on the 3rd and Komarov + Stecks + bag-of-fists on the 4th if there is some kind of persistent hate on for connolly.

I'd like to see how Kessel works with Kadri and Frattin.

Then line up Grabovski between Kulemin and MacAruther and Bozak between JVR and Komarov.

If these combinations work, then when Lupul gets back her takes Komarov's spot and move Komarov down to a line with McClement and Orr/Brown/McLaren.

 

[princedpw]

One other thing:  people complain about Kostka's powerplay time, which may be a fine thing to complain about.  However, I would not at all be opposed to a MoneyBall-esque strategy in which Kostka is given lots of powerplay opportunity to boost his stats and maximize is value.  Then sell him off at the deadline.

 

[Kin]

One other thing:  people complain about Kostka's powerplay time, which may be a fine thing to complain about.  However, I would not at all be opposed to a MoneyBall-esque strategy in which Kostka is given lots of powerplay opportunity to boost his stats and maximize is value.  Then sell him off at the deadline.

Doesn't that sort of imply that other GM's wouldn't be able to link his production to his PP time?

 

[princedpw]

One other thing:  people complain about Kostka's powerplay time, which may be a fine thing to complain about.  However, I would not at all be opposed to a MoneyBall-esque strategy in which Kostka is given lots of powerplay opportunity to boost his stats and maximize is value.  Then sell him off at the deadline.

Doesn't that sort of imply that other GM's wouldn't be able to link his production to his PP time?

Well, my understanding is that kind of thing worked in MoneyBall -- elevating pitchers to the status of closer, where they would bank save stats and then selling them off.

I don't really know of course, but my guess is that the hockey establishment is a little behind this trend in baseball (and baseball is of course easier to analyze statistically as it has in ample supply the kind of discrete events that are harder to tease out of a hockey game).  It wouldn't surprise me if some fraction of the old-school GMs, hired due to long-time NHL connections, were not quite as statistically savvy as they might be.  On the other hand, I suppose Mike Milbury was fired eventually ...

 

[Corn Flake]

Agree with Zee - please, please, PLEASE (!!!) don't trade the first round pick this year.

Same here.  Not this pick.  Not this year.  We can't do this again.  This is shaping up to be the chance to draft the stud #1 centre that this team needs.  There is no franchise player on or coming up through the system with the possible exception of Rielly but I think you have to have that catalyst at centre too.  I think if you get that stud centre in the making, the rest of this team is going to fall into place with what is in the system and on the young team now. 

What to do with pieces like Kessel and Phaneuf in the next year or so is another story.  I'm feeling less and less like they can be the core going forward that the kids are dropped in and around and building towards a legit team.  But a McKinnon could change everything. An O'Reilly?  Not so much. Good player.. trade for him.. don't give up that pick though.

 

[princedpw]

Would you give up a first rounder in this shortened season?  The draft is so close, and Leafs are so close to being a bottom feeder again.  Let's not have history repeat itself.

O'Rielly is young enough for me not to worry all that much, especially if he could help us drop the position of that pick. I hear history in my ear, but that's the risk of making good moves when the availability is there.

Agreed.

If the season were to end today we would forfeit the 9th pick to Colorado.  You gotta bet (hope?) too that adding ROR and getting Lupul/Gardiner back hopefully it's not even that high.  Maybe the 12th or 13th pick (for example).

ROR would instantly become probably one of our top 3-4 most valuable forwards and, believe it or not, would be our youngest forward.  Younger than Kadri, Frattin, Kessel, JVR, etc.

So it's basically trading a pick in the 8-14 range for a "proven" prospect.

I'm not saying I do the deal in a heartbeat but it's one I would probably lean towards making sure.

I would trade a pick in the 8-14 range for ROR but Nik will come along and point out that there is uncertainty concerning where the pick will land and that one never makes trades in the face of that sort of uncertainty....

 

[Kin]

Well, my understanding is that kind of thing worked in MoneyBall -- elevating pitchers to the status of closer, where they would bank save stats and then selling them off.

I don't really know of course, but my guess is that the hockey establishment is a little behind this trend in baseball (and baseball is of course easier to analyze statistically as it has in ample supply the kind of discrete events that are harder to tease out of a hockey game).  It wouldn't surprise me if some fraction of the old-school GMs, hired due to long-time NHL connections, were not quite as statistically savvy as they might be.  On the other hand, I suppose Mike Milbury was fired eventually ...

I see where you're going with that. I suppose I just tend to think of the relationship between points and a player's role is pretty well-established in hockey when compared with the over-valuing of the save stat in baseball which persists even now.

 

[maplesyrup]

Phaneuf for Stastny... Couldn't hurt either team right now.

I'd go after Ryan O'Reilly instead.

As would I but I'm not sure what the price would be. Gardiner plus Bozak? 

 

[Champ Kind]

It would be absolutely catastrophic to trade what will potentially / likely be a top 5 pick for a good player like Ryan O'Reilly.  And trading someone like Gardiner, Rielly, or even Finn is assuming that defense is a position of strength for the Leafs which, frankly, is just not true. 

The Leafs need prudence.  Maximize this year's draft, sign free agents, leverage financial strength, take advantage of other team's desperation, but enough with the shortcuts.

 

[rdowdall]

The only way the Leafs should make a trade is if it is bringing futures in.  Trade the whole second line, Kessel and Phanuef...blow it all up and start over. 

 

[Bender]

It would be absolutely catastrophic to trade what will potentially / likely be a top 5 pick for a good player like Ryan O'Reilly.  And trading someone like Gardiner, Rielly, or even Finn is assuming that defense is a position of strength for the Leafs which, frankly, is just not true. 

The Leafs need prudence.  Maximize this year's draft, sign free agents, leverage financial strength, take advantage of other team's desperation, but enough with the shortcuts.

Its Adventure Time with (Matt) Finn and Jake (Gardiner)!

 

[Bender]

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