2015 NHL Entry Draft - Draft Day!

[Stickytape]

Kind of a nothing question, but do you think Marner will wear 93?

 

[ZBBM]

If you can tell me with a straight face that going into this draft you expected that a player of the caliber of Dermott would be our second pick, then I'll eat my old Leafs ball cap I wear when I mow the lawn.

Well, I mean, that depends on his caliber which we've both admitted we actually know nothing about.

The two players I was hoping the Leafs would take at #24 actually got drafted at #46 and #60. So clearly my pre-draft preferences didn't really jive much with how actual NHL scouts evaluated these players.

Again though, you're essentially ignoring the actual reason the Leafs made these trades. If they'd wanted the #24 pick in the draft, they'd have kept it. They thought that the #34, #61 and #68 picks were more valuable and if you'd asked me that before the draft, I'd have probably agreed.

And the three guys together are only "better" than hypothetical 24 if their cumulative positive impact is greater than 24's. And even that is very debatable, that dudes self published study notwithstanding.

Well, no, it's not debatable. Because we'd be debating the future. Again, this isn't an argument between you thinking he's a bad prospect and me thinking he's a good one. It's you thinking he's a bad prospect whose selection undermines the entire draft and me saying you have no idea what you're talking about because we don't know enough about any of these guys and what they'll do to provide that sort of hyperbolic instant analysis.

You seem to sort of be jumbling two different complaints. One, that Dermott is a bad choice at #34 and two, that the Leafs shouldn't have traded down to #34 to begin with. As to the latter, I disagree. Like I said, the Leafs could have traded down to #34 and taken either of the guys I was hoping they'd taken at #24 and there were other prospects like Harkins available who were rated quite highly pre-draft. So trading down to #34 didn't affect their ability to take a prospect I'd have been happy with at #24 so the fact that they traded down to #34 and were able to draft two additional high upside prospects because of it seems on its face a good thing.

As to the former complaint, I really think to justify your reaction you need something more substantive than "the aggregated scouting rankings might have this guy 8 or 9 places lower than where they drafted him".

To answer (fairly) briefly:

Well, only part of the disagreement is whether they should have drafted at 24 (or 29) or did what they did to get extra picks.  I would have preferred that they pick at 24 and use that for somebody other than Dermott.  Another part of the disagreement is whether, given the fact that they apparently decided he was the guy they really wanted to pick second this year (which boggles my mind, but there you have it), they could have accomplished that with the next pick after 34.  It seems like a risk worth taking, to try to squeeze in another, higher-rated guy before taking Dermott.  The third part of the disagreement is this cumulative value thesis, which I don't buy.

BTW, I never said Dermott was a bad prospect.  I just think he was the wrong one to target as their second pick of the draft, and to take at 34.  Yes, of course I know nothing about him firsthand.  Like most people here, I base my opinion on the consensus of experts.  They all say he's a good prospect.  So I have no reason to disagree.

 

[Mr. Leaf]

Kind of a nothing question, but do you think Marner will wear 93?

It would be kind of cool, but really, I can't see it happening

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Maybe it's hindsight, but I'm not sure that 2nd trade is one that'll work out in the end.

Dermott (34) + Dzierkals (68) when they could've taken Merkley.

I haven't seen any of the Leafs picks play so I'm not saying it's good or bad, but I was pretty high on Merkley.

I realize that, at the time, anything could've happened (players dropping etc.) so it was more a strategy based decision. It's not the end of the world, but if they'd walked out with Marner, Merkley and Bracco on top of the other guys they got I would've considered it the perfect draft.

 

[Kin]

Another part of the disagreement is whether, given the fact that they apparently decided he was the guy they really wanted to pick second this year (which boggles my mind, but there you have it), they could have accomplished that with the next pick after 34.  It seems like a risk worth taking, to try to squeeze in another, higher-rated guy before taking Dermott.

Except that almost certainly wouldn't have happened. Their next pick was at 61. 7 of the 8 scouting services you and LK mentioned had him ranked higher than that. The aggregate ranking, which you seem to think is pretty important, would have had him anywhere from 10-20 spots before then. It also assumes that these teams don't really know what other teams are thinking about players when the Leafs decision to take Dermott where they did was almost certainly informed at least in part by what they knew other teams thought of him.

And, again, you're just flat-out ignoring the reason to trade down because it doesn't suit your narrative. Picking Dermott doesn't necessarily mean he was "the player" they wanted to target. What it means was that he was one of a group of players they were happy with, who they thought would be available when they made the pick and resultingly, they could supplement the draft with other picks. Again, Bracco and Dzierkals play into this conversation. Their value is key when weighing Dermott against all of these terrific prospects you think the Leafs should have taken at 24.

But please, don't try to walk it back too much. You didn't just say "he was the wrong player to target". You said his selection undermined everything else the Leafs did. That's just nonsense.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

Just logged into this site for the first time in years to say hallelujah for the trade down tactic.

I'm not sold on Babcock as the latest in a long line of messiahs. I wouldn't know if Marner or Hanifin was a better choice.... I can easily see however that after the top 5 or so picks, the difference of 10-15 spots is a difference of a % or 2 of probability, which is more than likely offset by coming into the yawning vacuum that is the Leafs prospect base.

2x5>1x7... It's not the light at the end of the tunnel, but just having someone showing evidence of trying to do the math is a genuine sign of a pulse at last.

 

[moon111]

You read the reports on Dermott and the word reliable comes up.  He's not generating offence by abandoning his defensive game.  Think you see that in his stats, he's not jumping up taking shots and taking himself out of the play.  I have a feeling you're almost guaranteed a sold 3/4 defenceman with a good chance he makes the top 2.  A right shot defenceman to play beside Rielly.

P.K. Subban                                  2nd round 43th
2005/06  52games  5g  7a 12pts  -2  .230pts/game
2006/07  68games 15g 41a 56pts +13  .826pts/game

Brett Burns                                      1st round 20th
2002/03  68games 15g 25a 40pts  +6  .588pts/game

Dennis Wildman                            8th round 241st
1999/00  63games 10g 26a 36pts  --  .528pts/game
2000/01  49games 15g 19a 34pts  --  .694pts/game

John Carlson (19 years old)              1st round 27th
2008/09  59games  16g 60a 76pts +23  1.29pts/game

Travis Dermott                                2nd round 34th
2013/14  67games  3g 25a 28pts +35  .417pts/game
2014/15  61games  8g 37a 45pts +23  .737pts/game

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Corey Pronman gave the Leafs an A rating for their draft. Edmonton was the only other team to receive an A and in his write-up he admits that mostly just because of who they picked at #1. BUF, ARI, CAR, PHI, and NYI all received A-'s.

 

[Kin]

That was a heck of a draft by the Islanders.

 

[ZBBM]

Another part of the disagreement is whether, given the fact that they apparently decided he was the guy they really wanted to pick second this year (which boggles my mind, but there you have it), they could have accomplished that with the next pick after 34.  It seems like a risk worth taking, to try to squeeze in another, higher-rated guy before taking Dermott.

Except that almost certainly wouldn't have happened. Their next pick was at 61. 7 of the 8 scouting services you and LK mentioned had him ranked higher than that. The aggregate ranking, which you seem to think is pretty important, would have had him anywhere from 10-20 spots before then. It also assumes that these teams don't really know what other teams are thinking about players when the Leafs decision to take Dermott where they did was almost certainly informed at least in part by what they knew other teams thought of him.

And, again, you're just flat-out ignoring the reason to trade down because it doesn't suit your narrative. Picking Dermott doesn't necessarily mean he was "the player" they wanted to target. What it means was that he was one of a group of players they were happy with, who they thought would be available when they made the pick and resultingly, they could supplement the draft with other picks. Again, Bracco and Dzierkals play into this conversation. Their value is key when weighing Dermott against all of these terrific prospects you think the Leafs should have taken at 24.

But please, don't try to walk it back too much. You didn't just say "he was the wrong player to target". You said his selection undermined everything else the Leafs did. That's just nonsense.

Oh Nik. Your little supercilious turns of phrase may impress or intimidate others but to me they do neither. Not only do I SEEM to think the aggregate opinion of scouts is important, it is important. As opposed to, say, your random opinion.

Nonsense?  That's pretty funny coming from a guy who seems to have spent half his waking hours the last two months posting about the draft, the necessity of getting picks, who those picks should be etc. I shouldn't have to remind you that every pick is important but especially the highest ones. Blow one of those and yes indeed it undermines the rest. Disagree with me as you will but keep in mind that you don't win arguments with little snippets of sarcasm (deft though they may be) or by characterizing your opponent's argument negatively. You win them with facts. And the fact is, for the moment, that neither of us know who is right.

 

[Kin]

Not only do I SEEM to think the aggregate opinion of scouts is important, it is important. As opposed to, say, your random opinion.

What opinion? That nobody the Leafs drafted was a crazy reach where they drafted him? That instant draft analysis from rank amateurs is meaningless? Again, what opinion do you think you're contesting of mine? I know it's hard to pin down, much like you can't actually name a player who you'd prefer the Leafs would have drafted, but you're not even sounding coherent at this point.

I shouldn't have to remind you that every pick is important but especially the highest ones.

Sure. Every pick is important. Which is why it's valuable to get more of them. Which is what they did. The best teams miss on picks. That's why having more of them increases the chances of landing a good player, especially when there's no consensus on who to pick at the spot they were.

Opinion on Dermott is divided. This Leafs team, which is supposed to specialize in scouting the OHL, is on the side that's higher on him than not. Aggregate rankings have value but if they're all over the place, as they are with Dermott, then drafting him within the range of his rankings isn't contradicted by the aggregated total. Certainly not when you have absolutely no idea about him as a player.

I'm sorry but no amount of your usual brushing of pseudo-intellectualism can actually cover for your lack of reason and ignorance on display here.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

That Jesper Lindgren pick looks real interesting.  Was highest scoring 18 yr old D in Swedish Jr league.  Scouting report kind of sounds Stralman-ish.

http://theleafsnation.com/2015/6/27/leafs-select-defenceman-jesper-lindgren-with-95th-pick

 

[herman]

Didn't really have a chance to absorb the second day of drafting since I was doing real life stuff, and coupled with a bunch of names I didn't recognize it was hard to care too much what happened. Now that the writeups are up, and I've caught up with the going-ons on this thread, I can confidently say I was impressed by the decision making at this draft.

Mark Hunter:

The skill, we need more skill on our team. You get a big, strong guy and it?s hard to develop their skill. The guys that do have skill, you can develop them physically and get them stronger. That?s how I look at it. I think Detroit has been doing that for years. You can get them stronger but you can?t put hockey sense in a player.

The rules have changed and the skilled players have a better chance to get things done on the ice.

Awww yissss. It's way easier to fill a frame than to build up a brain (after 5 years old).

I loved that they dipped into the European pool for intelligent and dynamic players.

I loved that we played the probabilities by trading down repeatedly for more kicks at the can. I see some people were frustrated by this tactic because they believe we let some talent slip by. The chance of players taken in the bottom half of the 1st round are about the same as the top of the 2nd and maybe even the 3rd in my mind. So it was preying on other teams' desire for certain players, while we reaped the benefits of more chances to pick the best player that fit our template available. Who could we have picked at 24 who was guaranteed to exceed the performance of any one of Dermott, Bracco, or Dzierkals? They're all educated guesses anyway, so I'd rather have more guesses.

Am I a bit sad we didn't pick Juulsen or Roy or Sprong or Kylington? Not really. Some of those players fell from their projected ranking for a reason. I assume the people who actually spoke to them and watched them play and evaluate talent professionally know better than I do.

 

[Highlander]

Agreed totally with Herman, does anyone know whom will be Marlie bound or are most like Marner going to play on their junior or Swedish league teams for the next year(s).

 

[herman]

Agreed totally with Herman, does anyone know whom will be Marlie bound or are most like Marner going to play on their junior or Swedish league teams for the next year(s).

Thanks, Highlander.

I think that'll all be determined after prospect camp and training camp. By the sound of it, Marner is going to get a swing at 1C with the Knights for a year. So if Marner is staying in Junior, I doubt anyone we picked after will be jumping into the AHL unless they're aging out of their current league or really really earn it.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Agreed totally with Herman, does anyone know whom will be Marlie bound or are most like Marner going to play on their junior or Swedish league teams for the next year(s).

6 of the 9 picks were drafted out of the CHL, so the AHL is completely out of the question for those guys. The two who were drafted out of Europe didn't really play in their top European mens league (KHL/SHL) so it's unlikely they would step into the AHL as 18-year olds. That leaves Bracco, who is technically eligible to play in the AHL but again it's very unlikely. He's committed to play for Boston College next season.

 

[Highlander]

Thanks CTB, I can now see why they are saying years for this rebuild, perhaps the first one to reach the NHL will be in perhaps 2 probably 3 years, outside of the D-Man we got from Edmonton who can play right away.

 

[hockeyfan1]

The Islanders chose Andong Song (#172), first Chinese-born player ever drafted by an NHL team:

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nhl/new-york-islanders-make-history-by-drafting-first-chinese-born-player

 

[Volx]

More about Leafs new latvian prospect http://volx2.tumblr.com/post/122681063203/martins-dzierkals-zem-lupas

 

[CarltonTheBear]

More about Leafs new latvian prospect http://volx2.tumblr.com/post/122681063203/martins-dzierkals-zem-lupas

Thanks! Not many Latvian speakers here I'd imagine but Google translate did the trick

Interesting that it seems likely he'll be coming over to play in the CHL somewhere next season. I believe that the import draft is today.