2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1074698854648303616

That would have made him eligible for the Seattle expansion draft... so yay for the injury?

 

[herman]

That would have made him eligible for the Seattle expansion draft... so yay for the injury?

Liljegren seems to have a lot of convenient medical mishaps for Toronto.

I think he would've been a deadline call-up/reward at most.

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1074698854648303616

That would have made him eligible for the Seattle expansion draft... so yay for the injury?

Game 73 would have been the call-up date

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1074706703344578565

This is the death knell of any veteran character forward signings by the Leafs for the duration of Tavares' contract.

 

[herman]

Kyle Dubas' press conference (for no particular reason) transcript, courtesy of MLHS.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/junotheleafs/status/1074837084341526528

Just over a third into the season. Getting good value for Tavares so far.

Martin: 2.5M AAV 4/2/6pts
Komarov: 3M AAV 3/8/11pts
Bozak: 5M AAV 4/9/13pts
JvR*: 7M AAV 3/4/7pts

For funsies: Lucic: 6M AAV 1/6/7pts

* 15GP only due to injury

Tavares: 11M AAV 20/14/34pts

Add in the players the Leafs have instead (Kapanen, Johnsson, Ennis) and the value starts to look ridiculous, as we always knew it would.

 

[ZBBM]

JVR is having a tough go.

Of course, he's outscoring his salary comparable on the Leafs. 

 

[Zee]

We are completely in control of that this time in that there is no excuse? I can?t say, ?I wasn?t doing this job a year ago.? We have to continue to work away with them and it will be our intention, well before July 1st, that we have an agreement and both players are here long term. One way or another, we?ll get that point.

Slight dig at Lou here about the Nylander contract? "I can't say I wasn't doing this job a year ago".

Hopefully Dubas gets this done well before July 1 or we'll go through the Nylander anxiety x 1000

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Continuing this discussion about the Leafs PP from the Florida GDT:

It seemed most obvious to me in the Tampa game.  Maybe they do a better job scouting (as you might expect the #1 team to do on the #2 team) but they seemed to know what was coming at all times from the Leafs PP and collapsed just right to take away all the usual options (ie when the puck went down low to Tavares it was smothered by the goalie and a D-man quickly sealing everything off). 

It is a better metric than straight shots but it's made me a little skeptical of 'high danger' chances, when the puck did go across to one of the off-wing shots we have the goalie seemed so expectant of it that it wasn't dangerous at all.  Those strong side shots take longer to get off than one timers which I fear is something that will eventually sink in as 'hotter' goalies stop all of those catch and release while one timers sail past Andersen going the other way.

I think in the end we just don't have enough shot options, Kadri hasn't been getting in on the action very much (which already makes it a 4 on 4 and not really a power play...) but then on top of that Matthews and Tavares are the only real shooters, that's 2 guys on the ice to smother and it seems to me teams have figured that out. 

Back to the goalies and dangerous chances I know shots are generally more dangerous when the pass goes across but I feel like there's a 'discount' on that when the pass comes from a known passer like Marner where the goalie is pretty much expecting a pass, and then another discount when it's a far side catch and release and not a one time that gets off right away.  The result is a good goalie shutting down all those 'high danger' chances pretty easily and I worry that if you just take comfort in that metric it ignores some of those distinctions between the teams that made a difference in the outcome.

It's really weird how Kadri's sort of becoming a running joke on the top PP unit for not doing anything. He's 7th on the team in points/60 and 6th in shots/60.  But last season he was a critical part of the Marner unit, finishing 3rd on the team in points/60 and 3rd in shots/60 and was top-30 in the entire league in both those categories. The Leafs should really be trying to get him some more puck touches there.

edit: and at a quick glance I believe all the guys ahead of him in points last season were defencemen or guys who play on the half walls, so you could probably make an argument that he was the best slot PP player in the league last season. Now he's essentially just a "decoy".

 

[CarltonTheBear]

We are completely in control of that this time in that there is no excuse? I can?t say, ?I wasn?t doing this job a year ago.? We have to continue to work away with them and it will be our intention, well before July 1st, that we have an agreement and both players are here long term. One way or another, we?ll get that point.

Slight dig at Lou here about the Nylander contract? "I can't say I wasn't doing this job a year ago".

Hopefully Dubas gets this done well before July 1 or we'll go through the Nylander anxiety x 1000

Maybe not a dig, but it's certainly a change in philosophy a little. In the summer Dubas borrowed one of Lou's favourite phrases/mottos, which was "if you have time, use it". I think the Nylander saga definitely made him re-think that.

 

[Bullfrog]

Continuing this discussion about the Leafs PP from the Florida GDT:

It's really weird how Kadri's sort of becoming a running joke on the top PP unit for not doing anything. He's 7th on the team in points/60 and 6th in shots/60.  But last season he was a critical part of the Marner unit, finishing 3rd on the team in points/60 and 3rd in shots/60 and was top-30 in the entire league in both those categories. The Leafs should really be trying to get him some more puck touches there.

edit: and at a quick glance I believe all the guys ahead of him in points last season were defencemen or guys who play on the half walls, so you could probably make an argument that he was the best slot PP player in the league last season. Now he's essentially just a "decoy".

My take is that since Kadri is such a creative player, I'd rather see him on one of the half-boards. The other thing is: with Nylander back, we've got another power play weapon. Having Kadri and Nylander run the second unit might increase its effectiveness.

 

[herman]

Continuing this discussion about the Leafs PP from the Florida GDT:

It's really weird how Kadri's sort of becoming a running joke on the top PP unit for not doing anything. He's 7th on the team in points/60 and 6th in shots/60.  But last season he was a critical part of the Marner unit, finishing 3rd on the team in points/60 and 3rd in shots/60 and was top-30 in the entire league in both those categories. The Leafs should really be trying to get him some more puck touches there.

edit: and at a quick glance I believe all the guys ahead of him in points last season were defencemen or guys who play on the half walls, so you could probably make an argument that he was the best slot PP player in the league last season. Now he's essentially just a "decoy".

My take is that since Kadri is such a creative player, I'd rather see him on one of the half-boards. The other thing is: with Nylander back, we've got another power play weapon. Having Kadri and Nylander run the second unit might increase its effectiveness.

The powerplay 'issue' isn't so much that Kadri sucks or that the Leafs don't have enough shooting options, it's exactly what Carlton said: they're just simply not using Kadri at all. Kadri's really not that good on the half-wall; his value comes from his singular focus on the PP, which is to jam the puck in.

Once the Leafs stop trying to force feed to Matthews (which is not a bad play, but currently being stymied), and start using Tavares and Kadri to plinko the puck a bit more (#TeamChaos), the results take care of themselves. The point of an overload PP unit is to take what the PK gives you and make them pay with whoever they're laying off of.

It seemed most obvious to me in the Tampa game.  Maybe they do a better job scouting (as you might expect the #1 team to do on the #2 team) but they seemed to know what was coming at all times from the Leafs PP and collapsed just right to take away all the usual options (ie when the puck went down low to Tavares it was smothered by the goalie and a D-man quickly sealing everything off). 

It is a better metric than straight shots but it's made me a little skeptical of 'high danger' chances, when the puck did go across to one of the off-wing shots we have the goalie seemed so expectant of it that it wasn't dangerous at all.  Those strong side shots take longer to get off than one timers which I fear is something that will eventually sink in as 'hotter' goalies stop all of those catch and release while one timers sail past Andersen going the other way.

Location-based shot metrics have their value, but location alone doesn't tell enough of the story. High Danger chances are notoriously spiky, and even more so for such a small sample as 5v4. What the Leafs measure are CSA-approved scoring chances, which is the next step beyond location + shot type metrics (Expected Goals) as it includes pre-shot movement context.

Speaking of pre-shot movement, I'm glad you brought up the strong-side catch and release vs weak-side one-timer. The one-timer does have the advantage of release time and puck speed. The way that Matthews* can shoot it though, you get even more important advantages like accuracy, deception (because he can choose when to pump fake, or hold, or release, or reverse a pass to a Tavares layup, or Kadri one-timer), and on the Royal Road pass a strong side leftie actually makes the goalie have to travel farther than on a weak-side rightie's one-timer.

* For most other left-shots in that spot, they really only have the option to redirect, or take an ugly short-side slapper.

 

[ZBBM]

I still don't know what the hell you are doing hanging around here.  Why aren't you ghosting articles for Dreger or backstopping the star journos at The Athletic?

 

[herman]

I still don't know what the hell you are doing hanging around here.  Why aren't you ghosting articles for Dreger or backstopping the star journos at The Athletic?

 

[Bullfrog]

My take is that since Kadri is such a creative player, I'd rather see him on one of the half-boards. The other thing is: with Nylander back, we've got another power play weapon. Having Kadri and Nylander run the second unit might increase its effectiveness.

The powerplay 'issue' isn't so much that Kadri sucks or that the Leafs don't have enough shooting options, it's exactly what Carlton said: they're just simply not using Kadri at all. Kadri's really not that good on the half-wall; his value comes from his singular focus on the PP, which is to jam the puck in.

Once the Leafs stop trying to force feed to Matthews (which is not a bad play, but currently being stymied), and start using Tavares and Kadri to plinko the puck a bit more (#TeamChaos), the results take care of themselves. The point of an overload PP unit is to take what the PK gives you and make them pay with whoever they're laying off of.

To be clear, I haven't in any way stated that Kadri sucks on the power play or even that the power play has an issue. I'm extremely patient in my analysis and reactions. I don't think a few games with a lack of success really says much of anything, to be honest.

In fact, what I've said is that I think Kadri should move the 2nd unit precisely because of his level of creativity and because of the return of Nylander.

Much of the success of the first unit is because of the three left-handed shots that Marner has to pass to; the Leafs don't seem to be creating that wall anymore (perhaps due to the PKers adjusting to take away options.)

If you put Kadri in Matthew's spot -- but on the 2nd unit -- he's more open to using his playmaking and shot in a more dangerous way. Marleau is well suited to the net-front presence.

 

[herman]

To be clear, I haven't in any way stated that Kadri sucks on the power play or even that the power play has an issue. I'm extremely patient in my analysis and reactions. I don't think a few games with a lack of success really says much of anything, to be honest.

In fact, what I've said is that I think Kadri should move the 2nd unit precisely because of his level of creativity and because of the return of Nylander.

Much of the success of the first unit is because of the three left-handed shots that Marner has to pass to; the Leafs don't seem to be creating that wall anymore (perhaps due to the PKers adjusting to take away options.)

If you put Kadri in Matthew's spot -- but on the 2nd unit -- he's more open to using his playmaking and shot in a more dangerous way. Marleau is well suited to the net-front presence.

Sorry for phrasing that in a way that conflated your point with the general fan hot take about Kadri and the power play. I very much agree with the bolded statement.

I see what you're intending with Kadri's creativity to bolster the second unit and that has merit. I would still be in favour of not making any personnel changes to the units largely because Kadri is a proven very-good-option with Marner's group, and Mitch is just trying out all the new toys at the moment.

Tyler Ennis is an honestly good half-wall creative as well and I think a good complement to Nylander. PP2 doesn't have the shot threat it used to, without Matthews, but I think this current configuration can still get very dangerous in a hurry. The half-walls have some of our best puck holders to draw out defenses and make plays. Down the middle we have two of our best stick-down-in-the-right-spot-always players in Marleau and Johnsson. It's really going to be about generating slot passes and rebounds and just tapping in the puck through the muck and going hard on retrievals on misses.

 

[ZBBM]

Why not put Kapanen on 2PP?

 

[Guilt Trip]

Why not put Kapanen on 2PP?

Because we don't want him to do too good so his contract will be cheaper! I think he should be on one of the PP units but Babs has different ideas. He thinks Reilly got really good because he plays with Hainsey.

 

[ZBBM]

Why not put Kapanen on 2PP?

Because we don't want him to do too good so his contract will be cheaper! I think he should be on one of the PP units but Babs has different ideas. He thinks Reilly got really good because he plays with Hainsey.

Heh, maybe you're right.

Anyway, I think it's stupid to leave a proven scorer on the sidelines during the PP.  I think he could play Kadri's role on the 2nd unit if Babs must leave him on the 1st.

 

[Bullfrog]

To be clear, I haven't in any way stated that Kadri sucks on the power play or even that the power play has an issue. I'm extremely patient in my analysis and reactions. I don't think a few games with a lack of success really says much of anything, to be honest.

In fact, what I've said is that I think Kadri should move the 2nd unit precisely because of his level of creativity and because of the return of Nylander.

Much of the success of the first unit is because of the three left-handed shots that Marner has to pass to; the Leafs don't seem to be creating that wall anymore (perhaps due to the PKers adjusting to take away options.)

If you put Kadri in Matthew's spot -- but on the 2nd unit -- he's more open to using his playmaking and shot in a more dangerous way. Marleau is well suited to the net-front presence.

Sorry for phrasing that in a way that conflated your point with the general fan hot take about Kadri and the power play. I very much agree with the bolded statement.

I see what you're intending with Kadri's creativity to bolster the second unit and that has merit. I would still be in favour of not making any personnel changes to the units largely because Kadri is a proven very-good-option with Marner's group, and Mitch is just trying out all the new toys at the moment.

Tyler Ennis is an honestly good half-wall creative as well and I think a good complement to Nylander. PP2 doesn't have the shot threat it used to, without Matthews, but I think this current configuration can still get very dangerous in a hurry. The half-walls have some of our best puck holders to draw out defenses and make plays. Down the middle we have two of our best stick-down-in-the-right-spot-always players in Marleau and Johnsson. It's really going to be about generating slot passes and rebounds and just tapping in the puck through the muck and going hard on retrievals on misses.

Just curious, but what's your thought on going back to using two defensemen on the power play? Dermott-Gardiner could be interesting on the 2nd unit.