Analytics are a tool but this isn't baseball. This is a team game.Bender said:Bates said:
1) I have no idea what you're trying to say with "And Zaitsev??" He needed to go, this doesn't mean Ceci needs to stay.
2) Tired cliche is tired. You can use that for anything to fit a narrative. We need as many good, skilled players as possible and Gards is far and away better than Ceci (I am aware of handedness, like I said pay a replacement level player replacement level money, not $4.5m)
3) Insanity is not being cognizant of what players bring to the table.
2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
Guilt Trip
Active member
Sorry my bad. I mean did he accept it? I heard he did verbally but nothing official. Maybe the Leafs will convince him to not accept and go to arbitration. That's if they want out.Nik the Trik said:
Kin
New member
Guilt Trip said:
You mean has he signed the QO? No. Otherwise he'd be signed. The reports yesterday were that he'd verbally agreed to a 4.5 million one year thing with the Leafs(which is higher than his QO) but being as nothing has been announced I think it's fair to be skeptical of that right now.
Guilt Trip
Active member
Thanks. Just heard on Leafs Lunch that Ceci will be on at 1pm. Not sure but that leads me to believe he's in Toronto.Nik the Trik said:
Nik the Trik said:
If the Leafs sign Ceci and Kerfoot now then it leaves them no flexibility with Marner if a team signs him to an offer sheet. It is in their best interest to get Marner done first. In the meantime, if an agreement has been made that such and such is what someone will be signed for, then hopefully that holds.
Strangelove
New member
Bates said:Analytics are a tool but this isn't baseball. This is a team game.Bender said:Bates said:
1) I have no idea what you're trying to say with "And Zaitsev??" He needed to go, this doesn't mean Ceci needs to stay.
2) Tired cliche is tired. You can use that for anything to fit a narrative. We need as many good, skilled players as possible and Gards is far and away better than Ceci (I am aware of handedness, like I said pay a replacement level player replacement level money, not $4.5m)
3) Insanity is not being cognizant of what players bring to the table.
Hilarious that you think this is a knockdown response. "The actual, factual statistics don't matter because I don't like the player." Reminds me of people who didn't like Sundin because he was "soft and European".
Gardiner's hockey intelligence (gap control, driving offence, creating space) makes him extremely valuable. If the Leafs can find a way to make it work and shed deadweight like Ceci, then they absolutely have to do that unless Gardiner's back issues make him too risky.
Strangelove said:Bates said:Analytics are a tool but this isn't baseball. This is a team game.Bender said:Bates said:
1) I have no idea what you're trying to say with "And Zaitsev??" He needed to go, this doesn't mean Ceci needs to stay.
2) Tired cliche is tired. You can use that for anything to fit a narrative. We need as many good, skilled players as possible and Gards is far and away better than Ceci (I am aware of handedness, like I said pay a replacement level player replacement level money, not $4.5m)
3) Insanity is not being cognizant of what players bring to the table.
Hilarious that you think this is a knockdown response. "The actual, factual statistics don't matter because I don't like the player." Reminds me of people who didn't like Sundin because he was "soft and European".
Gardiner's hockey intelligence (gap control, driving offence, creating space) makes him extremely valuable. If the Leafs can find a way to make it work and shed deadweight like Ceci, then they absolutely have to do that unless Gardiner's back issues make him too risky.
So do you feel the Leaf's are a better team with Gardiner as 3rd pairing LD or with Gardiner gone and Ceci instead of Zaitsev as 2nd to start and probably 3rd RD? Gardner's value has been shown here for a few seasons, he's our 3rd LD and not worth what it would cost to keep him. His analytics don't pass the eye test and that's not good either. I don't hate Gardiner but he is a luxury the Leaf's can't afford with their lineup.
Kin
New member
Michael said:
Again, I really think that the fact that Dubas has acted as aggresively as he has means he probably knows roughly what he deal will cost and is budgeting for either side of it. Would Dubas like to get it done sooner? Yup, and that desire can be used by the other side to negotiate with some leverage.
Guilt Trip
Active member
I mentioned that before also. I think everything is hanging on Mitch right now. He's actually hindering the Leafs at this point so he needs to sign.Hobbes said:
Bates said:Strangelove said:Bates said:Analytics are a tool but this isn't baseball. This is a team game.Bender said:Bates said:
1) I have no idea what you're trying to say with "And Zaitsev??" He needed to go, this doesn't mean Ceci needs to stay.
2) Tired cliche is tired. You can use that for anything to fit a narrative. We need as many good, skilled players as possible and Gards is far and away better than Ceci (I am aware of handedness, like I said pay a replacement level player replacement level money, not $4.5m)
3) Insanity is not being cognizant of what players bring to the table.
Hilarious that you think this is a knockdown response. "The actual, factual statistics don't matter because I don't like the player." Reminds me of people who didn't like Sundin because he was "soft and European".
Gardiner's hockey intelligence (gap control, driving offence, creating space) makes him extremely valuable. If the Leafs can find a way to make it work and shed deadweight like Ceci, then they absolutely have to do that unless Gardiner's back issues make him too risky.
So do you feel the Leaf's are a better team with Gardiner as 3rd pairing LD or with Gardiner gone and Ceci instead of Zaitsev as 2nd to start and probably 3rd RD? Gardner's value has been shown here for a few seasons, he's our 3rd LD and not worth what it would cost to keep him. His analytics don't pass the eye test and that's not good either. I don't hate Gardiner but he is a luxury the Leaf's can't afford with their lineup.
Your argument makes it sound like it's set in stone that the Leafs can't afford Gardiner, which may very well be true to an extent, but my argument is that Ceci is bad value for what he brings and is likely replacement level. If he is Zaitsev for one year there is no difference as to whether he gets flipped - there is someone out there who is replacement level making replacement level dollars if you are so keen on having a RD who is also a right shot. On the same token I think a coach needs to be flexible on considering there isn't a 50/50 split in handedness throughout the league.
Gardiner is a bit of a pipe dream at this point, I am aware of that, but, like I said, if you can dump Ceci and get Gards because maybe some teams are afraid to give him term and you can have him at a 1yr discount then you do it.
We can agree to disagree and that's fine, but Ceci is not an upgrade on Gards regardless of handedness, and the eye test stuff is just nonsense. It's one of those things where you don't notice things a player does well because they just do it, and mistakes get magnified. Gards is prone to the big gaffe at times, but he has shown over and over and over that the value he brings to the team outweigh some of the brain cramps. Again, case in point, the Leafs struggled to get a decent pass out of their zone when he was injured and we missed him dearly. To completely ignore that is just willful ignorance.
Bender said:Bates said:Strangelove said:Bates said:Analytics are a tool but this isn't baseball. This is a team game.Bender said:Bates said:
1) I have no idea what you're trying to say with "And Zaitsev??" He needed to go, this doesn't mean Ceci needs to stay.
2) Tired cliche is tired. You can use that for anything to fit a narrative. We need as many good, skilled players as possible and Gards is far and away better than Ceci (I am aware of handedness, like I said pay a replacement level player replacement level money, not $4.5m)
3) Insanity is not being cognizant of what players bring to the table.
Hilarious that you think this is a knockdown response. "The actual, factual statistics don't matter because I don't like the player." Reminds me of people who didn't like Sundin because he was "soft and European".
Gardiner's hockey intelligence (gap control, driving offence, creating space) makes him extremely valuable. If the Leafs can find a way to make it work and shed deadweight like Ceci, then they absolutely have to do that unless Gardiner's back issues make him too risky.
So do you feel the Leaf's are a better team with Gardiner as 3rd pairing LD or with Gardiner gone and Ceci instead of Zaitsev as 2nd to start and probably 3rd RD? Gardner's value has been shown here for a few seasons, he's our 3rd LD and not worth what it would cost to keep him. His analytics don't pass the eye test and that's not good either. I don't hate Gardiner but he is a luxury the Leaf's can't afford with their lineup.
Your argument makes it sound like it's set in stone that the Leafs can't afford Gardiner, which may very well be true to an extent, but my argument is that Ceci is bad value for what he brings and is likely replacement level. If he is Zaitsev for one year there is no difference as to whether he gets flipped - there is someone out there who is replacement level making replacement level dollars if you are so keen on having a RD who is also a right shot. On the same token I think a coach needs to be flexible on considering there isn't a 50/50 split in handedness throughout the league.
Gardiner is a bit of a pipe dream at this point, I am aware of that, but, like I said, if you can dump Ceci and get Gards because maybe some teams are afraid to give him term and you can have him at a 1yr discount then you do it.
We can agree to disagree and that's fine, but Ceci is not an upgrade on Gards regardless of handedness, and the eye test stuff is just nonsense. It's one of those things where you don't notice things a player does well because they just do it, and mistakes get magnified. Gards is prone to the big gaffe at times, but he has shown over and over and over that the value he brings to the team outweigh some of the brain cramps. Again, case in point, the Leafs struggled to get a decent pass out of their zone when he was injured and we missed him dearly. To completely ignore that is just willful ignorance.
Give me an example of a replacement level RD who is better than Ceci? Remember Hainsey just got $3.5 million. Yes we missed Gardiner when he was out, that was as much about our level of replacement as it was about Gardiner. We are a better more balanced D team now than we were last season. It will be significantly better when Dermot is ready and Sandin makes the jump. We have no room for Gardiner as a LD. He would not be replacing Ceci.
I'd really like to replace Ceci with Gardiner if it is at all possible - assuming Gardiner's back is not going to be a recurring problem. Maybe he takes a big discount to stay in Toronto for a short term deal. Otherwise, I'm pretty impressed by what Dubas has been able to achieve the last couple of weeks. He certainly didn't play it safe.
Regarding Kadri...loved him as a Leaf but he severely hurt the team the past 2 springs. I know Dubas said that had nothing to do with the decision to trade him, but not sure I completely buy that (would anyone expect him to say otherwise?) At the least, it had to make it easier to let him go.
Regarding Kadri...loved him as a Leaf but he severely hurt the team the past 2 springs. I know Dubas said that had nothing to do with the decision to trade him, but not sure I completely buy that (would anyone expect him to say otherwise?) At the least, it had to make it easier to let him go.
herman said:
How much did Babcock show a willingness to use Rielly on the right side last season? It isn't going to happen. And Rielly isn't signing for less than Myers per year so where will we get even more Cap space that we don't have? If Gardiner was interested in a reduced salary I'm fairly confident he would already be signed.
Ooooh, I love this game. Me next. If Gardiner was getting a decent salary wouldn't he have signed elsewhere already?Bates said:
There are a lot of unknowns with Gardiner at this point. I think management likely doesn't believe in a fit right now and it sounds like Dubas was committed to a RHD and it's Ceci in this case.
herman
Well-known member
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/07/03/kyle-dubas-speaks-in-depth-on-tyson-barrie-alex-kerfoot-cody-ceci-and-the-mitch-marner-negotiations/
Ceci appears to be going to arbitration. Dubas sees him as a reclamation project where some parts of his game have room to grow or get back on track. This is code for pump and dump.
Ceci appears to be going to arbitration. Dubas sees him as a reclamation project where some parts of his game have room to grow or get back on track. This is code for pump and dump.
Guilt Trip
Active member
I liked that he said he thinks the Aho OS has an effect on marketplace.herman said: