2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[ZBBM]

Marner has been the best player on the team this year and it's not even close. He busts his butt every PK too and gives it full effort pretty much every game.

You may not like his media attitude or his father or his agent or whatever.

Mitch Marner is not what ails the Toronto Maple Leafs and if he walks the team will be worse not better.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Nylander last night after the game: "I don’t think that we get to our game until at some point in the third period."

Berube: "They need to make their mind up in the room about the importance of the start of the game and 60 minutes of urgency"

This has been a thing for 8 years (plus) with this player group. They don't start games on time, they let opponents dictate the game, they play down to weaker opponents. Oh sure, they'll turn it on for 10 or 15 minutes (or maybe a whole period) and save some games, but it's a character flaw that isn't going away no matter who the coach is. The lack of urgency shows up throughout the games - the weak starts, the poor PPs where they lose all the puck battles or settle for perimeter play, the defensive zone where they fail to clear pucks.

Maybe they get lucky and ride a hot goalie to a series win (or two) but I this looks more like an early first round exit team to me, especially if they play one of the Florida teams.

Not totally buying this start on time stuff. The play for 60 mins, def yes is an issue. In the last 8 games, they've held the lead, and by multiple goals sometimes in 7 of them. In 6 of them they scored 1st. That's a good sign. Giving up the lead, not so good. That's what they need to clean up. Since 4 Nations, Leafs are 9/30 on the PP. Problem is they're only 66% on the PK. It's not all doom and gloom. 16 games to get it together and they will. I think the goalies will be better and the D will get back in form. Woll had a very good game in Utah but wasn't in peak form for a few games before that. He still won 3 of 4 since 4 Nations. Stolarz hasn't been any better and has lost his last 4 starts and 4 after winning his first 3 after 4 Nations. He's letting in stoppable goals which has been strange for both guys this season. As for the D, Tanev only played 16 mins last night so he's not up to speed yet. He will no doubt and then the pairings will be solidified again. Jarnkrok is trying to find his way and the same with the new guys.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Oh, I bet there are some issues. I think the realization that management basically wanted to swap out Marner for Rantanen was a real wake-up call that rattled Marner and probably his buddies (esp Matthews, I don't think Nylander cares about any of it). He hasn't looked the same since that news came out.

At this point, I don't think Marner will re-sign with the Leafs unless maybe (and even this is not a guarantee) (1) the Leafs offer more $ than anyone else, and (2) the team somehow pulls together and makes a real deep playoff run - at least to the conference finals. Maybe then he'll feel like it's worth staying. Though maybe even in that case the Leafs decide to part ways.

Like Struddy said on Overdrive. By asking 16 to waive, which is what they did regardless of how it was presented, the Leafs basically told Marner we think Rants is better then you. Anyway lots of hockey to go before that scenario so enjoy the ride to the playoffs.

 

[Chris]

Not totally buying this start on time stuff. The play for 60 mins, def yes is an issue. In the last 8 games, they've held the lead, and by multiple goals sometimes in 7 of them. In 6 of them they scored 1st. That's a good sign. Giving up the lead, not so good. That's what they need to clean up. Since 4 Nations, Leafs are 9/30 on the PP. Problem is they're only 66% on the PK. It's not all doom and gloom. 16 games to get it together and they will. I think the goalies will be better and the D will get back in form. Woll had a very good game in Utah but wasn't in peak form for a few games before that. He still won 3 of 4 since 4 Nations. Stolarz hasn't been any better and has lost his last 4 starts and 4 after winning his first 3 after 4 Nations. He's letting in stoppable goals which has been strange for both guys this season. As for the D, Tanev only played 16 mins last night so he's not up to speed yet. He will no doubt and then the pairings will be solidified again. Jarnkrok is trying to find his way and the same with the new guys.

You don't have to buy it, but the players and coaches are talking about it and it's been an issue for years now. Deny it if you want though.

Jarnkrok, come on - he's never been close to being an impact player in the playoffs. He's ok during the regular season but a non-factor at crunch time (sound familiar? fits right in). Better hope Laughton is the one that finds his way by the time the real games start.

 

[Guilt Trip]

You don't have to buy it, but the players and coaches are talking about it and it's been an issue for years now. Deny it if you want though.

Jarnkrok, come on - he's never been close to being an impact player in the playoffs. He's ok during the regular season but a non-factor at crunch time (sound familiar? fits right in). Better hope Laughton is the one that finds his way by the time the real games start.

I'm not a fan of Jarnkrok and don't expect anything out of him. Why I mentioned him is, he's in the lineup so he's having an effect on whatever line he plays on.
I have no doubt that Laughton will find his way and so will Carlo who was good last night.

 

[Arn]

Guys, no need to worry. My football team have just won their first trophy since many years before I was born.

Book the Leafs to do the same now

 

[Bullfrog]

Question: who would you rather have on this team for the playoffs?

Sam Bennett or Mitch Marner?

You're just trolling, ya?

Like: "hee hee, let's ask a really absurd question for funsies", right?

 

[Bill_Berg]

Who would you rather have for next year? Marner or Bennett and Ehlers?

I am not anti-Marner, but I really do wonder if that 14 mill is better spent on two players than one.

 

[Ozzie]

Who would you rather have for next year? Marner or Bennett and Ehlers?

I am not anti-Marner, but I really do wonder if that 14 mill is better spent on two players than one.

Totally agree on this. Marner is one of the best to ever play in Toronto. Yet the team needs proper architecture at a capped cost. And this building doesn't have the strength to rise past a certain height based on how it's main pillars are constructed.

A player like Bennett provides a pillar the Leafs construction needs. Or even sprinkled across multiple players.... like at the Knies and Tanev level.

You're just trolling, ya?

Like: "hee hee, let's ask a really absurd question for funsies", right?

I guess you feel trolled? That's funny bud.

 

[bustaheims]

Let’s play a little game.

Say the Leafs had retained Keefe. And built this same roster. Including the same moves at the deadline.

Would the Leafs be higher or lower in the standings?

I’d have them down as a good chance at the Presidents Trophy.

I’ve still no idea how they’ll fare in the playoffs, but I’m not optimistic it’ll actually be any better playing this Berube style with this roster.

They’d absolutely have better record under Keefe. As much as he didn’t feel like the right guy to get the team over the hump, he clearly understood what he had on his roster - a bunch of highly skilled creative players - and he let them lean into their strengths.

Berube, on the other hand, is trying to get them to play a much lunch pail style of game, which hopefully pays dividends in the playoffs, but definitely plays into their weaknesses instead of their strengths. That worries me some, as we’ve seen this movie before. I’m concerned that Berube is going to turn out to be Carlyle 2.0.

 

[dappleganger]

But Laughton and Carlo are included in your Puckpedia roster with the same assets that were also used to theoretically get Rantanen so your roster is impossible because the same assets can't be traded twice by the Leafs to obtain different players. Because Leafs have very limited assets and Cowan was also used theoretically to get Rantanen, the Leafs don't have anything else like the assets they gave up to get Laughton & Carlo. So your roster is unrealistic on that level beyond some of the trades or contracts you proposed that also look unrealistic.

It is virtually impossible for the Leafs to add Rantanen and keep Marner and most of their roster that currently lacks the cap space to have 23 players. Something has to give. If I'm Marner looking at that attempt, the most likely plan looked like get Rantanen and keep everyone else but Marner. A constant criticism has been the core 4 had the Leafs cap usage consuming too much for top forwards and now they're adding a 5th (with a reduction in Tavares salary)? No way. What did Nylander say when they asked him to waive his no trade so they could get Rantanen? Ditto for Matthews? Crickets.

Which may explain why Marner would not commit that he would be re-signing during his post trade deadline media scrum. Treliving has floated maybe trading Marner since last spring. Some in the media declared Marner not being in the opening day lineup a certainty. Treliving did not declare Marner a priority to re-sign like he did for Matthews & Nylander. His agent probably said "I bet we can find a GM who really wants you July 1st. Lets check that out and see how you feel then. The Leafs GM whose actions reveal that he doesn't really want you would then have to explain how he lost the teams top regular season and playoffs scorer over the last 9 seasons who had declared he wanted to re-sign and that he lost him for nothing."

Maybe there are some issues in the locker room over this ...

Ok, I heard your criticisms and made corrections. I reversed the Carlo and Rantanen trades. Kampf was put on waivers and was sent to the minors because no one would take his contract because of the bonus money owed. Knies refused my 2-years @$4m bride deal so he held out and isn't on the roster. Marner signed a $13.5m contract extension. Tavares took $3m x 8 years to stay on the team but there's a little wiggle room there.

Keep in mind this would only be a cap crunch for one year. The cap is going up to $104m for 26-27, providing another $8.5m with most of your players under contract.

https://puckgm.puckpedia.com/rosters/419647

 

[herman]

I just value hypercarry offensive drivers* more in terms of dedicated Cap spend. These are players that can transition the puck, create openings, pass, and shoot all on their own; they only need cheapo support for forechecking and pushing pucks to the right areas.

I think generating consistent offense is severely undervalued in a defense wins championships paradigm (moralization of defense), when scoring is usually <10% of a games recorded shot attempts.

Marner is a better overall player than Nylander, not by 3-4M but better nonetheless. Still, when either of them have dogwater games, they can still create one or two moments at critical times to break a game in the Leafs’ favour. The main difference is Marner tends to need someone else to also have such a moment at the same time, whereas Nylander (and a healthy Matthews to some degree) is agnostic to what his linemates are doing, so the likelihood of a breakthrough is in the favour of the soloist.

McDavid and MacKinnon have that solo takeover ability and the wherewithal to dictate the game due to their ability to layer puck control with their above average speed and processing ability. I think I’d like to save the heavy cap hits for that sort of ability going forward.

 

[herman]

Did London Knights do Marner a disservice by not transitioning him into an RD? He could be Makar.

 

[ZBBM]

We have Marner now. You are not going to replace him with someone as good. This is not very complicated.

What we all were hoping for is a beefed up D and better goaltending to help us win instead of lose the 2-1 playoff games. We got that but also got Mystery Matthews instead of Auston. That's what we're staring down right now.

 

[cw]

I just value hypercarry offensive drivers* more in terms of dedicated Cap spend. These are players that can transition the puck, create openings, pass, and shoot all on their own; they only need cheapo support for forechecking and pushing pucks to the right areas.

I think generating consistent offense is severely undervalued in a defense wins championships paradigm (moralization of defense), when scoring is usually <10% of a games recorded shot attempts.

Marner is a better overall player than Nylander, not by 3-4M but better nonetheless. Still, when either of them have dogwater games, they can still create one or two moments at critical times to break a game in the Leafs’ favour. The main difference is Marner tends to need someone else to also have such a moment at the same time, whereas Nylander (and a healthy Matthews to some degree) is agnostic to what his linemates are doing, so the likelihood of a breakthrough is in the favour of the soloist.

McDavid and MacKinnon have that solo takeover ability and the wherewithal to dictate the game due to their ability to layer puck control with their above average speed and processing ability. I think I’d like to save the heavy cap hits for that sort of ability going forward.

Nylander scores about one more GWG per season (46) than Marner (36) since '16-17. That's all. But Marner sets up a lot more than 1 GWG per year - a bunch more than Nylander. And Marner allows fewer goals against as the handily better two way player.

Brett Hull was a 40-50 goal scorer during his prime but a 70-86 goal scorer when Adam Oates was setting him up.

There is a reason why these top players like playing with setup players like Marner. We saw that again in the Four Nations tournament. A team full of shooters is not as likely to be as successful as a team who has some good puck distributors to set the shooters up. It is not an either/or - you want both. The core 4 have Matthews and Tavares as finishers as well. Marner mixing with them is very likely to be more effective than a 4th shooter. In part, Coach Cooper liked Marner with McDavid to help cover him defensively so there is that part of his game that he brings to the table as well.

 

[cw]

Marner has been the best player on the team this year and it's not even close. He busts his butt every PK too and gives it full effort pretty much every game.

You may not like his media attitude or his father or his agent or whatever.

Mitch Marner is not what ails the Toronto Maple Leafs and if he walks the team will be worse not better.

I asked myself "Is there a player like Marner on Cup winning teams?"
Certainly.
Henri Richard was 5'7", 160lbs. I think he won more Cups as a player than anyone in NHL history. He co-lead the team in the 1960 playoffs scoring to a Cup
Dave Keon was 5'9", 163lbs. He won 4 Cups as a Leaf

There are parallels between Keon and Marner. Both undersized relative to the league. Both very smart players. Both skilled and good skaters. Both very good defensively. Both good top PKers for their team. Both were reserved with the media. Keon seemed quite nervous/uncomfortable around the media. Keon was a center and probably scored more shorthanded goals per game played. He was very popular.

I can't think of a Cup winning team off hand that Marner couldn't crack and help.
Having said that, because of his size, I was not a big fan of him being drafted #4. He proved me and many others wrong.
Leafs leading playoff scorer. Leading playoff +/- among forwards. He's not the problem.

Goaltending, D & the bottom 8 forwards have been the much bigger problems. When the bottom 8 forwards are not very good, teams can focus on defending against the top 4.

If they lose Marner for nothing, it will have longer term implications. This year's UFA crop doesn't look like it can replace him. They'll probably have a harder time attracting UFAs if Marner walks - as a sign of problems with the team.

 

[cw]

Ok, I heard your criticisms and made corrections. I reversed the Carlo and Rantanen trades. Kampf was put on waivers and was sent to the minors because no one would take his contract because of the bonus money owed. Knies refused my 2-years @$4m bride deal so he held out and isn't on the roster. Marner signed a $13.5m contract extension. Tavares took $3m x 8 years to stay on the team but there's a little wiggle room there.

Keep in mind this would only be a cap crunch for one year. The cap is going up to $104m for 26-27, providing another $8.5m with most of your players under contract.

https://puckgm.puckpedia.com/rosters/419647

You wind up with Myers as a top 4 dman and Holmberg as your 3rd line center that he hasn't been able to embrace this season. 3/4 lines are poor. Alex Steeves is not a 4th line center
You have Marner, Rantanen and Nylander who are all right wingers.
So you've solved the math problem but we're trying to build a competitive hockey team.
To many, a 3rd line center and top 4 RH dman are the bigger holes they needed to fill than a 3rd right winger.

 

[Chris]

I asked myself "Is there a player like Marner on Cup winning teams?"
Certainly.
Henri Richard was 5'7", 160lbs. I think he won more Cups as a player than anyone in NHL history. He co-lead the team in the 1960 playoffs scoring to a Cup
Dave Keon was 5'9", 163lbs. He won 4 Cups as a Leaf

There are parallels between Keon and Marner. Both undersized relative to the league. Both very smart players. Both skilled and good skaters. Both very good defensively. Both good top PKers for their team. Both were reserved with the media. Keon seemed quite nervous/uncomfortable around the media. Keon was a center and probably scored more shorthanded goals per game played. He was very popular.

I can't think of a Cup winning team off hand that Marner couldn't crack and help.
Having said that, because of his size, I was not a big fan of him being drafted #4. He proved me and many others wrong.
Leafs leading playoff scorer. Leading playoff +/- among forwards. He's not the problem.

Goaltending, D & the bottom 8 forwards have been the much bigger problems. When the bottom 8 forwards are not very good, teams can focus on defending against the top 4.

If they lose Marner for nothing, it will have longer term implications. This year's UFA crop doesn't look like it can replace him. They'll probably have a harder time attracting UFAs if Marner walks - as a sign of problems with the team.

You have to go back to 1967 to find a comparable to Marner on a cup winning team? That says a lot right there.

I certainly believe there is a world where a team can win a cup with Mitch Marner as a first or second line player. I don't think that team is the Leafs and it may never be, simply because as you note, the D and remainder of the forward group are lacking. But part of the reason they are lacking is because the team has been paying so much for those top 4 forwards (who all play similar styles and don't seem to have that extra give-a-crap/hate to lose gear needed for the playoffs)and have traded away all their assets. I'm not sure how you fix that by giving Marner another huge contract. I'm also not sure how you fix it by letting him walk considering what is available in free agency this year.

 

[cw]

You have to go back to 1967 to find a comparable to Marner on a cup winning team? That says a lot right there.

No you don't. I happened to pick two from long ago to show how long guys like that have been around on Cup winners

Yanni Gourde won two Cups with Tampa
Martin St. Louis won a Cup with Tampa
Doug Jarvis, four Cups with the Habs
Brian Gionta won Cup with the Devils
Theo Fleury won a Cup with Calgary
Jonathan Marchessault won a Cup and the Conn Smythe with Vegas
Doug Gilmour won a Cup with Calgary
Brad Marchand won a Cup with the Bruins

I'm sure there are more.

 

[cw]

You have to go back to 1967 to find a comparable to Marner on a cup winning team? That says a lot right there.

I certainly believe there is a world where a team can win a cup with Mitch Marner as a first or second line player. I don't think that team is the Leafs and it may never be, simply because as you note, the D and remainder of the forward group are lacking. But part of the reason they are lacking is because the team has been paying so much for those top 4 forwards (who all play similar styles and don't seem to have that extra give-a-crap/hate to lose gear needed for the playoffs)and have traded away all their assets. I'm not sure how you fix that by giving Marner another huge contract. I'm also not sure how you fix it by letting him walk considering what is available in free agency this year.

Covid hurt their cap budgeting.
So did mortgaging the future too soon - trading away young economical talent for rentals too soon.
If the young economical talent was flowing onto the roster, the cap pressure would have been significantly less.
With three years left after this with Matthews before he becomes a UFA, their chances of getting someone on the roster to help from draft and development into the top 6 or top 4 is getting quite small.