Leafs 2014/2015 Schedule in 10 game chunks

[Bullfrog]

That is more vitriol and ire than I would normally allocate to someone who I don't know personally and has never received allegations of crimes against humanity.

I find him to be one of the better, more measured beat writers in mainstream media, as he grounds his arguments in readily available statistics.

That you know of!

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

In fact, Toronto went 11-2-1 prior to the Olympic break last season, and there are certainly some similarities in the two streaks.

In that run, the Leafs scored a league-high 51 goals in 14 games (3.64 per game) with a league-high 12.5 shooting percentage and were outshot an average of 35.8 to 29.1.

In their current 12-game streak, the Leafs have scored a league-high 49 goals (4.08 per game) with a league-high 14.2 per cent shooting percentage and have been outshot an average of 34.1 to 28.8.

In terms of analytics, last year?s hot streak came with a 44.3 per cent possession rating, better than only Buffalo over the same time frame.

This year, it?s 42.7 per cent.

Which is better than only Buffalo.

If anything, this run is more unsustainable than that one.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/carlyle-leafs-play-slipping-despite-win-streak/article22114885/

 

[CarltonTheBear]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/carlyle-leafs-play-slipping-despite-win-streak/article22114885/

I don't think anybody is going to say that they aren't running off percentages right now, but that is how hot streaks generally work. The big question is how cold will they get when the cold streak comes in or when they level off. I don't think it will be nearly as bad as it was lasted season. Last season after the Olympics the Leafs had the 7th worst offence in the league. I can't see that happening again.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't think anybody is going to say that they aren't running off percentages right now, but that is how hot streaks generally work. The big question is how cold will they get when the cold streak comes in or when they level off. I don't think it will be nearly as bad as it was lasted season. Last season after the Olympics the Leafs had the 7th worst offence in the league. I can't see that happening again.

I don't think they'll go into such a pronounced, extended slump like they did last season, but, that shooting percentage is going to drop, and likely, quite dramatically. League average is roughly 9%, and the league leader and the end of the season is usually around 10%. The Leafs are currently at 11.4%. They are a very good offensive team, so, there's a good chance they come in closer to 10% than 9%, but, there's still going to be a noticeable drop off in their production. I mean, we're talking about a difference of roughly 2 goals every 3 games over the course of the season. At this point in the year, it might be closer to 3 every 4 to bring them down to where they likely finish off - which would put their scoring rate roughly at par with the rate they're allowing goals.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/carlyle-leafs-play-slipping-despite-win-streak/article22114885/

I don't think anybody is going to say that they aren't running off percentages right now, but that is how hot streaks generally work. The big question is how cold will they get when the cold streak comes in or when they level off. I don't think it will be nearly as bad as it was lasted season. Last season after the Olympics the Leafs had the 7th worst offence in the league. I can't see that happening again.

I think it's just the possession/shots against that worry me.  You can probably bet on their SH% to drop off a full % but they've shown consistently that they can remain a top 10 or top 5 team in that category because they have the skill.  But if they don't get the shots against under wraps, even if they continue to get this level of goaltending (which they more or less did last season) I think the volume of shots will eventually overwhelm the team and even a slight trend down in SH% would be enough to put them in some trouble.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think it's just the possession/shots against that worry me.  You can probably bet on their SH% to drop off a full % but they've shown consistently that they can remain a top 10 or top 5 team in that category because they have the skill.  But if they don't get the shots against under wraps, even if they continue to get this level of goaltending (which they more or less did last season) I think the volume of shots will eventually overwhelm the team and even a slight trend down in SH% would be enough to put them in some trouble.

Their possession numbers have increased slightly from last season. Not enough to be proud of them, but probably as much as you could expect considering the core and HC of the team didn't change at all. This team is what it is. A mediocre possession team at even-strength that can score and has a goalie who can stop pucks.

I like to think to be a playoff team you need to have some combination of the following traits: good possession numbers, a good shooting percentage, a good save percentage, and good speciality teams. A good possession team probably only needs to have one of the other 3 traits. If you're not a good possession team you can only get in by checking off all 3 of the others. The Leafs will almost certainly finish top-10 in Sh% and Sv%, like they did last season. What did them in then was a terrible penalty kill and a powerplay that abandoned them in the last 1/3 of the season. Right now they're top-10 in both categories. As long as those numbers don't tank I think we'll comfortably make the playoffs. Will we win the Cup? Certainly not. But like the last few years this is an Eastern conference that really doesn't impress me much. May as well try and get in and see what happens. I've made it clear that I'd have loved to have tanked this season, so a part of me wouldn't mind if all of our percentages dropped to unwinnable levels, but I don't see it happening.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The Leafs will almost certainly finish top-10 in Sh% and Sv%, like they did last season. What did them in then was a terrible penalty kill and a powerplay that abandoned them in the last 1/3 of the season. Right now they're top-10 in both categories. As long as those numbers don't tank I think we'll comfortably make the playoffs.

Their best hope is to be kind of like Montreal last season who had terrible possession #'s but great goaltending and a top PK unit.

Their possession #'s have been trending downwards since about game 10 which is why I raised concern about those #'s.  They might not be improved from last season for long if that keeps up.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't think they'll go into such a pronounced, extended slump like they did last season, but, that shooting percentage is going to drop, and likely, quite dramatically. League average is roughly 9%, and the league leader and the end of the season is usually around 10%. The Leafs are currently at 11.4%. They are a very good offensive team, so, there's a good chance they come in closer to 10% than 9%, but, there's still going to be a noticeable drop off in their production. I mean, we're talking about a difference of roughly 2 goals every 3 games over the course of the season. At this point in the year, it might be closer to 3 every 4 to bring them down to where they likely finish off - which would put their scoring rate roughly at par with the rate they're allowing goals.

Even if they had shot 9% during this 10-1-1 stretch, they'd have still scored 2.6 goals per game vs. 2.2 goals against per game, which still would have given them a top-10 GF% during that period. They'd have just gone from scoring an absurdly high amount of goals to a still respectable amount. I know we're basically in a holding pattern here and I hate to repeat myself, but yes their shooting percentage won't stay at 14% and they won't continue to score 4 goals a game and they won't continue to be a top-5 team in the league. But none of those things are going to get close to as bad as they did last season, or even enough to put their playoff position in grave danger I think. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Their possession #'s have been trending downwards since about game 10 which is why I raised concern about those #'s.  They might not be improved from last season for long if that keeps up.

I wonder how much of those numbers are effected by score effects though. They've been scoring so much they're playing with the lead more than normal so that could put a damper on those numbers.

 

[bustaheims]

Even if they had shot 9% during this 10-1-1 stretch, they'd have still scored 2.6 goals per game vs. 2.2 goals against per game, which still would have given them a top-10 GF% during that period. They'd have just gone from scoring an absurdly high amount of goals to a still respectable amount. I know we're basically in a holding pattern here and I hate to repeat myself, but yes their shooting percentage won't stay at 14% and they won't continue to score 4 goals a game and they won't continue to be a top-5 team in the league. But none of those things are going to get close to as bad as they did last season, or even enough to put their playoff position in grave danger I think.

I'm much less confident than you. Combined with the slowdown on offence, any noticeable dip in the goaltending, and they'll be in tough to win on a lot of nights. 2.6 goals for per game combined with the 2.77 goals they're allowing on average this season would mean their record the rest of the way would likely be below .500 - which could be enough to knock them out of the playoffs, while a dip in the goaltending would almost certainly see them drop significantly in the standings under that scenario. Like I said, I don't expect them to just fall off a cliff like they did last season, but, there are definitely signs that they could very easily find themselves in trouble if they don't improve the defensive side of their game to compensate.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

2.6 goals for per game combined with the 2.77 goals they're allowing on average this season [...]

I don't think that's a very fair way of looking at it. First, while the Leafs shooting percentage will drop I'd wager that from this point on to the end of the season they'll still be an above-average shooting team. Second, the Leafs goals against per game is still somewhat skewed because of those games against Buffalo and Nashville. Take out those and that number drops to 2.44. I know you shouldn't just throw games like that out the window but if we're projecting how the team will do for the rest of the season I don't think we can count on those performances happening repeating themselves.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Their possession #'s have been trending downwards since about game 10 which is why I raised concern about those #'s.  They might not be improved from last season for long if that keeps up.

I wonder how much of those numbers are effected by score effects though. They've been scoring so much they're playing with the lead more than normal so that could put a damper on those numbers.

Yeah I wonder that too - although just off the top of my head (which admittedly isn't worth much) it feels like even the games they've been up by a few were games they were getting heavily outchanced early on and it continued the rest of the game.  But that might be remembering it differently than it actually was.

I think the first few months have provided some helpful looks at ways they can hopefully prevent the possession and chances against from completely tanking - one of which would be to give Kadri a bigger role at evens.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think the first few months have provided some helpful looks at ways they can hopefully prevent the possession and chances against from completely tanking - one of which would be to give Kadri a bigger role at evens.

Yup. I'm certainly no Randy fan but if he continues to play Kadri like the 1C at least at even-strength he'll earn some points from me. Will be really interesting to see how that works on the road.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't think that's a very fair way of looking at it. First, while the Leafs shooting percentage will drop I'd wager that from this point on to the end of the season they'll still be an above-average shooting team. Second, the Leafs goals against per game is still somewhat skewed because of those games against Buffalo and Nashville. Take out those and that number drops to 2.44. I know you shouldn't just throw games like that out the window but if we're projecting how the team will do for the rest of the season I don't think we can count on those performances happening repeating themselves.

We also have to account for the fact that the goaltending also won't be as good as it has been over the last 10-12 games, which evens things out some. I'd say 2.77 goals per game is likely roughly where they end up with their overall goaltending this season combined with the rate their giving up shots. It would also represent a significant improvement from last season's 3.07. Also, for what it's worth, outside of the opposition, I don't think the Buffalo game was really bad enough to be considered an outlier. There were likely be other games this season where the team will allow 6 goals, as it's not an unusual total to be scored in a game. As for the Nashville game, it's largely balanced out by the 10 shot shutout against Buffalo - while the Leafs may get other shutouts, they won't likely play another game that's so unbalanced in their favour. Both games are really outliers in terms of rating the team's performance.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

We also have to account for the fact that the goaltending also won't be as good as it has been over the last 10-12 games, which evens things out some. I'd say 2.77 goals per game is likely roughly where they end up with their overall goaltending this season combined with the rate their giving up shots. It would also represent a significant improvement from last season's 3.07.

Yeah you're probably right 2.77 is fair. I actually forgot just how bad our GA was last season to be honest. That means then if the Leafs keep shooting at their current rate (30.3 per game) they would need to have a shooting percentage of just 9.2% to score more goals than they allow. And last season the only team to have a GF% above 50% and not make the playoffs was NJ, who was replaced by Detroit (49.5%). A 9.2+% shooting percentage at the end of the year is pretty much guaranteed for the Leafs.

Also, for what it's worth, outside of the opposition, I don't think the Buffalo game was really bad enough to be considered an outlier. There were likely be other games this season where the team will allow 6 goals, as it's not an unusual total to be scored in a game. As for the Nashville game, it's largely balanced out by the 10 shot shutout against Buffalo - while the Leafs may get other shutouts, they won't likely play another game that's so unbalanced in their favour. Both games are really outliers in terms of rating the team's performance.

Your right about the Buffalo blow-out. I just clumped it in with the NAS game because they were played back-to-back. And not that it matters, but the NAS game would be a much bigger outlier in terms of Sv% than the BUF shut-out. Making 10 of 10 saves is a much more frequent occurrence than only making 9 of 12. That shutout would have skewed his GAA more than anything.

 

[bustaheims]

Your right about the Buffalo blow-out. I just clumped it in with the NAS game because they were played back-to-back. And not that it matters, but the NAS game would be a much bigger outlier in terms of Sv% than the BUF shut-out. Making 10 of 10 saves is a much more frequent occurrence than only making 9 of 12. That shutout would have skewed his GAA more than anything.

Well, then's it's probably a good thing we were talking about the team's overall goals against, rather than either of the individual goalies. Making 10 out of 10 saves is certainly a more frequent occurrence, but, only allowing 10 shots in a game occurs roughly as frequently as the Leafs allowing 9 goals in one.

 

[Highlander]

and Buffalo has been on a mini tear of late.  So maybe they were a better team when they beat us than expected.

 

[bustaheims]

and Buffalo has been on a mini tear of late.  So maybe they were a better team when they beat us than expected.

No, their success is being driven by a lot of the same things the Leafs' recent success has been - high shooting percentages and quality goaltending.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Well, then's it's probably a good thing we were talking about the team's overall goals against, rather than either of the individual goalies. Making 10 out of 10 saves is certainly a more frequent occurrence, but, only allowing 10 shots in a game occurs roughly as frequently as the Leafs allowing 9 goals in one.

Yeah I mixed that up. Doesn't change much.

 

[freer]

I think the first few months have provided some helpful looks at ways they can hopefully prevent the possession and chances against from completely tanking - one of which would be to give Kadri a bigger role at evens.

Yup. I'm certainly no Randy fan but if he continues to play Kadri like the 1C at least at even-strength he'll earn some points from me. Will be really interesting to see how that works on the road.

Unfortunately if he continues to play as well as he has they are going to trade him. IMO are not going to have enough cap space to sign him unless someone like Lupul and Gardiner are moved.