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Leafs Get Andersen from Ducks

bustaheims said:
Potvin29 said:
As the Leafs themselves have said, they can't keep all the picks.  They had the luxury of picks 30 and 31 and could afford to use one to address another need.  The cap hit is reasonable and he's been an above average goalie.

Not only that, but they'll almost certainly recoup some of the value of they dealt away when they move out expiring contracts at the deadline, or Bozak and JvR this summer, etc. There's value in spreading the picks out and building a pipeline. You can only have so many prospects in the system at a time.

They also could have spent these picks acquiring what this team really needs at this point.
 
Frank E said:
They also could have spent these picks acquiring what this team really needs at this point.

Like a goalie? I mean, those picks weren't going to return much better value than Andersen. They weren't going to bring in a top pairing defenceman. In terms of the prospects they could have drafted - they have a bunch at the same level they need to work through the system. Missing out on a couple isn't a big deal.
 
bustaheims said:
Potvin29 said:
As the Leafs themselves have said, they can't keep all the picks.  They had the luxury of picks 30 and 31 and could afford to use one to address another need.  The cap hit is reasonable and he's been an above average goalie.

Not only that, but they'll almost certainly recoup some of the value of they dealt away when they move out expiring contracts at the deadline, or Bozak and JvR this summer, etc. There's value in spreading the picks out and building a pipeline. You can only have so many prospects in the system at a time.

And spreading picks out in the salary cap era makes sense too...i imagine the Leafs will kick tires on a defenceman or two but they can watch their prospects mature and try to make smart deals on veterans to keep the picks coming...
 
mr grieves said:
But the trade's only half the equation. There's also the deal. And I wonder: how can the Leafs possibly know, at this point, that he's "their guy" for the next 5 years at $5m/year? I look at the other long-term contracts they've signed recently and I think there's a very good chance Kadri, Gardiner, and Rielley will out-perform those deals. Looking at his record, I've none of that confidence about Andersen. Do you?

Some of it I am sure is a calculated risk - something about his stats + scouting him that they like.  Maybe it is partly his size.  If he does not out-perform his deal that is not the end of the world, they can't all be that way.
 
mr grieves said:
But the trade's only half the equation. There's also the deal. And I wonder: how can the Leafs possibly know, at this point, that he's "their guy" for the next 5 years at $5m/year? I look at the other long-term contracts they've signed recently and I think there's a very good chance Kadri, Gardiner, and Rielley will out-perform those deals. Looking at his record, I've none of that confidence about Andersen. Do you?

Out-perform? Maybe not. Perform at a level that justifies the contract? Yeah, I'm confident he'll do that. I have to believe they took a look at the goaltending market, looked at the guys who would likely be available in the next few seasons, and identified Andersen as the best fit. At $5M, he's not a guy you're expecting to carry a team on his back or anything. $5M is average-ish for a starting goalie. At that level, all you're really expecting is consistent, stable goaltending - and I don't doubt Andersen is capable of that.
 
I haven't seen a lot of him but obviously they have done their homework.  I don't think it's a high price to pay. Always said the draft is a crap shoot. Giving up a 30th pick and another who knows where in the second round is not a high price to pay for a quality goalie. I'm sure his numbers obviously were good being on a good Anaheim team but the Leafs are going to get better. The defence and team defence under Babcock already showed an improvement from past years. Only going to get better with Zaitsev and probably Carrick. Like the move.
 
bustaheims said:
Frank E said:
They also could have spent these picks acquiring what this team really needs at this point.

Like a goalie? I mean, those picks weren't going to return much better value than Andersen. They weren't going to bring in a top pairing defenceman. In terms of the prospects they could have drafted - they have a bunch at the same level they need to work through the system. Missing out on a couple isn't a big deal.

Missing out on a couple of good shots at drafting a top pairing defenseman is a big deal to me.
 
caveman said:
And spreading picks out in the salary cap era makes sense too...i imagine the Leafs will kick tires on a defenceman or two but they can watch their prospects mature and try to make smart deals on veterans to keep the picks coming...

Especially if you're trying to build a sustainable contender. You need to build the system so that you can move secondary pieces when they start to get expensive, and not lose much in terms of talent by replacing them with pieces that are already in the system. Gotta do what the Hawks did with guys like Ladd, Byfuglien, Saad, etc. - trade them when they're ready for bug money, and keep replenishing the system.
 
Frank E said:
Missing out on a couple of good shots at drafting a top pairing defenseman is a big deal to me.

Neither of those picks represented good shots at drafting a top pairing defencemen. In fact, the odds of landing a full-time NHLer is less than 50% on both picks.
 
Potvin29 said:
mr grieves said:
But the trade's only half the equation. There's also the deal. And I wonder: how can the Leafs possibly know, at this point, that he's "their guy" for the next 5 years at $5m/year? I look at the other long-term contracts they've signed recently and I think there's a very good chance Kadri, Gardiner, and Rielley will out-perform those deals. Looking at his record, I've none of that confidence about Andersen. Do you?

Some of it I am sure is a calculated risk - something about his stats + scouting him that they like.  Maybe it is partly his size.  If he does not out-perform his deal that is not the end of the world, they can't all be that way.

But it's not like you can drop a goalie down the line-up very easily either, right? Grabovski on a third line is a $2m loss, but you can still win games. If Andersen can't give you .920+ goaltending for ~60 games, we're in tough. A goalie that doesn't live up to expectations can sink an otherwise very good team...

I'm sure it is a calculated risk. I wonder (and now we'll never really know) how calculated it is though. What's the Leafs goalie scouting like? What's the analytics department come up with?
 
http://www.mynhldraft.com/nhl-draft-picks/30th-overall/300509/

Picking a player at 30, who can play in the NHL on regular basis, is rare.  Picking a player who is actually considered good is even rarer.
 
My one big beef with this trade is that we could have signed Reimer without giving up anything.  I think Reimer would have signed for $5M per year as well.  And I think the two goalies are pretty much equivalent.  Yes, the Leafs got a 3rd rounder for Reimer but now they have given up a first and a second round pick.  Didn't Phil Kessel go for two firsts and a second?  The Leafs paid too much for this goalie IMO.  They should have just let him hit free agency and then sign him.
 
DGB on the trade:

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2 problems with your plan. 1) he would have been an RFA and was getting traded whether it was Leafs or not and 2)almost nobody thinks Reimer is as good as Andersen and those who train goalies think he is a big upgrade.
sickbeast said:
My one big beef with this trade is that we could have signed Reimer without giving up anything.  I think Reimer would have signed for $5M per year as well.  And I think the two goalies are pretty much equivalent.  Yes, the Leafs got a 3rd rounder for Reimer but now they have given up a first and a second round pick.  Didn't Phil Kessel go for two firsts and a second?  The Leafs paid too much for this goalie IMO.  They should have just let him hit free agency and then sign him.
 
I don't entirely get this outside of not really liking any of the goalie prospects that might be available at 30 or 31. Seems like a move like this is better situated to be made later or with a younger goalie.

That said I don't think it means a ton in terms of the team's immediate plans. I said somewhere else that the differences between the goaltending the Leafs got last year and league average would have only amounted to a dozen or so goals. That doesn't move the needle too much on a finish, especially if pieces like Bozak and JVR still get moved out.

Still, every time I read the paper them old feelings come on. We're waist deep in the big muddy, the big fool says to push on.
 
bustaheims said:
Frank E said:
Missing out on a couple of good shots at drafting a top pairing defenseman is a big deal to me.

Neither of those picks represented good shots at drafting a top pairing defencemen. In fact, the odds of landing a full-time NHLer is less than 50% on both picks.

A pick at the 30 spot of over 200 players is what I'd call a good shot.

Did they have an option to pick sooner?  I'm not sure how else they're supposed to draft one, but I'm all ears. 
 

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