Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[Britishbulldog]

http://www.tsn.ca/video/th-studs-and-duds-1.141268

E Kane gets a 'dud' status for only 2 goals this year.  Perfect time to trade for him....

 

[Tigger]

I know the 3rd line has been our best so far this season, but I wonder if a switch between Clarkson and Winnik isn't, at least, worth a look.

Kadri and Lupul have yet to get it going and Clarkson seems to be on his game so far.

Winnik seems like he has the kind of game that would fit well on the 3rd line, though I guess Winnik brings some defensive responsibility to the 2nd line that Clarkson may not.

Tough call.

I don't see Clarkson doing anything noteworthy at all this year, other than simply not being as dreadfully terrible as last season. He still can't pass and he still doesn't get any quality shots on net. Personally I'd rather see him on the 4th line way before he gets promoted to the 2nd (if there was such thing as a 4th line in Toronto).

Super Dave is better this year, he's moving his feet and not engaging ridiculously, he should keep that head gear on for the rest of his career...

 

[Britishbulldog]

So looking to next season's roster.  It appears that the Canadian dollar being low is affecting the revenues of the NHL.  It is also reported that the NHLPA will not invoke the increase either so the salary cap is going to be close to the same as this year....around $69 MIL.

The Leafs have $52.7 committed to 13 players:
JVR / Bozak / Kessel
Lupul / *** / ***
Komarov / *** / Clarkson
*** / Holland / ***
*** / ***
Phaneuf / Robidas
Gardiner / Polak
Rielly / ***
***

***
Reimer

That leaves around $16.3 MIL to sign the 10 roster spots for an average salary of $1.63 MIL per player including Bernier and Kadri who this year are making almost $6 MIL between them and I don't think they will be taking a pay cut. 

Looking at the current Leafs who are FAs this summer I am hoping the Leafs re-sign:
Kadri $2.9,         $3.5    2 yr
Panik $0.735,   $1.25    2 yr
Kozun $0.55,   $0.55    1 yr
Santorelli $1.5, $2.5    4 yr
Winnik $1.3,     $2.0    4 yr
Smith $0.55      $0.925  2 yr
Franson $3.3   $4.0    5 yr
Bernier $2.9.   $3.5    2 yr
          $13.735    $18.225

How much do you think their contracts will be worth next year?  I put my guesses in BLUE.  Obviously there is no chance for my projected team to work for next year as it is $2 MIL too much and still 2 roster spots need to be filled.

UFA
Forwards
Santorelli, Winnik, Booth, Smith

Defense
Franson, Holzer

RFA
Forwards
Kadri, Panik, Kozun

Goalie
Bernier

The Leafs look like they will either need to trade some of the 13 signed players or not re-sign some of the FAs.  I don't know what the best solution is.

 

[Tigger]

Franson is going to get at least a mil more, he's the only one there I could really say I'm pretty sure of. The UFA's will get more than they did last year, provided they keep up the work and are healthy and sure, Santorelli and Winnik are nice to have but I'm not sure where they stop making sense in terms of the Leafs cap.

Kadri and Bernier are toughies to figure right now. Bernier hasn't been stellar, good but also 'ok', Kadri is having a great year in terms of development.

At this point Booth has a lot to prove, Panik, Kozun, Holzer and Smith are likely to be priced right but not overly important either, though depth is very necessary. The cap remaining static for a year is kind of sucky for the Leafs, they may have to look at a trade or two just to keep their depth intact and hold on for the duration and if they do, hopefully they can find a 'hockey trade' component while they're at it.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Eric Brewer was traded for a 3rd round pick the other day. Eric freakin' Brewer. People have been saying all season long that the price for defencemen is very high right now. If the Leafs don't think they can re-sign Franson then they absolutely have to trade him before the trade deadline. We can't let him walk on July 1st.

 

[mr grieves]

That leaves around $16.3 MIL to sign the 10 roster spots for an average salary of $1.63 MIL per player including Bernier and Kadri who this year are making almost $6 MIL between them and I don't think they will be taking a pay cut. 

Looking at the current Leafs who are FAs this summer I am hoping the Leafs re-sign:
Kadri $2.9,         $3.5    2 yr    $4.5 into UFA
Panik $0.735,   $1.25    2 yr    .735 replacement
Kozun $0.55,   $0.55    1 yr      .55 replacement
Santorelli $1.5, $2.5    4 yr      1.5 replacement
Winnik $1.3,     $2.0    4 yr      2.0
Smith $0.55      $0.925  2 yr    .55 replacement
Franson $3.3   $4.0    5 yr      5.0
Bernier $2.9.   $3.5    2 yr      4.0
          $13.735    $18.225        $18.835

How much do you think their contracts will be worth next year?  I put my guesses in BLUE.  Obviously there is no chance for my projected team to work for next year as it is $2 MIL too much and still 2 roster spots need to be filled.

I'd guess/hope they're looking at a Gardiner-like deal for Kadri. Don't think they keep Franson for that little, since he's now on the top pair and he's scoring at an impressive rate. Even if they stop leaning so heavily on Bernier (making him the #1), I still think he won't have a cap hit at what he's making this year ($3.4). Doubt re-signing both Winnik and Santorelli with raises is in the cards: point of the cheap UFA deals is that the roster spots are filled cheaply.

I guess what I see is that it's really hard to re-sign the core pieces -- Kadri and Bernier -- and fill out the roster. Probably impossible if you bring Franson along at what would be within the range of what he could find as a UFA.

Wonder if Lupul or Bozak will be traded for cap relief.

 

[Tigger]

Wonder if Lupul or Bozak will be traded for cap relief.

Likely the usual suspects there, Lupul, Reimer, Franson. Bozak? Not for just cap relief.

 

[Highlander]

Bozak is not going anywhere. Who will Phil play video games with if he is shipped out.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

What do people think of moving Franson to Edm for J. Schultz + (pick, player)?

He hasn't lived up to expectations but has the offensive tools and may get better on a team that isn't as bad.

I just get a bad feeling about committing the kind of money to Franson that he'll likely (even justifiably so) command.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What do people think of moving Franson to Edm for J. Schultz + (pick, player)?

He hasn't lived up to expectations but has the offensive tools and may get better on a team that isn't as bad.

I just get a bad feeling about committing the kind of money to Franson that he'll likely (even justifiably so) command.

I'm pretty sure Schultz would make Gardiner look like a Norris trophy candidate around here. His qualifying offer to re-sign him next season would be way too high as well.

 

[hockeyfan1]

In defence of Cody Franson: analytics, analytics, analytics...should the Leafs re-sign him?  Read article and judge for yourself:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/playing-hardball-with-franson-will-cost-leafs/

 

[Omallley]

Eric Brewer was traded for a 3rd round pick the other day. Eric freakin' Brewer. People have been saying all season long that the price for defencemen is very high right now. If the Leafs don't think they can re-sign Franson then they absolutely have to trade him before the trade deadline. We can't let him walk on July 1st.

This. Asset management is key here.

On the flip side, I'd hate to see him get paid, and the team struggle to fill the other positions with players that can contribute. There are cap relief trades that you can make that you can win on talent acquisition when you're talking about a player getting paid as a UFA. The Leafs lost out on slightly similar situation with Tucker in 2007 when they re-signed him to that terrible 4x3M deal (and handicapping themselves cap wise in the process).

 

[mr grieves]

I looked ahead to see how the Leafs compared to other teams in 2017-18, to see who had how much dedicated to which "core" players.

Not sure how useful this is -- teams are on different trajectories; youth's cycling in and going UFA at different times; contracts can, of course, be moved; basically says something a lot of people criticizing the core have been saying for a while; etc.; etc. -- but it's a bit crazy that the Leafs are between 2 modern dynasties. And without having the team's best center, best defenseman, or any goalie, under contract.

Looks like they've 2007 Tuckered a bunch already.

LAK 9 players - Brown, Richards, Carter, Gaborik, Doughty, Voynov, Greene, Muzzin, Quick = 45.2
TOR 8 players - Kessel, Lupul, Clarkson, JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Phaneuf, Gardiner = 42.3
CHI 6 players - Kane, Toews, Hossa, Keith, Hjalm, Crawford = 41.9
MIN 7 players -Parise, Koivu, Pominville, Coyle, Suter, Scandella, Brodin = 38.8
PIT 5 players - Malkin, Crosby, Hornqvist, Letang, Fleury = 35.5
NYR 6 players - Nash, Brassard, Girardi, McDonagh, Klein, Lundquivst = 34.4
WAS 5 players - Ovi, Backstom, Niskanen, Orpik, Carlson = 31.5
MTL 6 players - Pacioretty, Eller, Gallagher, Subban, Emelin, Price = 31.4
NJD 6 players - Zajac, CAmmalleri, Clowe, Henrique, Greene, Schneider = 30.9
DET 6 players - Zetterberg, Weiss, Franzen, Kronwall, Ericsson, Howard = 29.2
WPG 6 players - Wheeler, Kane, Little, Enstrom, Bogosian, Stuart = 29.1
ANA 5 players - Getzlaf, Perry, Cogliano, Fowler, Stoner = 29.1
BOS 5 players - Bergeron, Krejci, Chara, Seidenberg, Rask = 28.8
OTT 6 players - Ryan, Turris, MacArthur, Karlsson, Boroweicki, Anderson = 27.
NSH 5 players - Neal, Weber, Josi, Ellis, Rinne = 26.4
NYI 6 players - Tavares, Grabovski, Kulemin, Bailey, Hamonic, Halak = 26.3
EDM 5 players - Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Pouliot, Fayne = 25.6
PHI 5 players - Giroux, LeCavalier, Simmonds, Read, MacDonald = 25.4
TBL 5 players - Callahan, Fippula, Carle, Garrison, Stralman = 25.4
CBJ 5 players - Horton, Hartnell, Dubinsky, Tyutin, Joshso = 24.8
CAR 4 players - Semin, Staal, Skinner, Faulk = 23.6
BUF 5 players - Moulson, Ennis, Hodgson, Myers, Gorges = 23.3
VAN 4 players - Sedin, Sedin, Hansen, Edler = 22.3
DAL 4 players - Spezza, Seguin, Roussel, Lehtonen = 21.2
COL 5 players - Duchene, Landeskog, McLeod, Holden, Varlamov = 20.4
SJS 4 players - Pavelski, Couture, Vlasic, Braun = 20.1
STL 4 players - Stastny, Reavers, Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester = 20
FLA 3 players - Bolland, J Jokinen, Luongo = 14
ARI 2 players - E-Larsson, Smith = 13.1
CGY 2 players - Stajan, Brodie = 7.775

 

[Britishbulldog]

That leaves around $16.3 MIL to sign the 10 roster spots for an average salary of $1.63 MIL per player including Bernier and Kadri who this year are making almost $6 MIL between them and I don't think they will be taking a pay cut. 

Looking at the current Leafs who are FAs this summer I am hoping the Leafs re-sign:
Kadri $2.9,         $4.5    5 yr  I am with you on this one    $4.5 into UFA
Panik $0.735,   Carrick ??     .735 replacement
Kozun $0.55,   $0.55    1 yr      .55 replacement
Santorelli $1.5, $0.8 Leivo      1.5 replacement
Winnik $1.3,     $2.0    4 yr      2.0
Smith $0.55      $0.925  2 yr    .55 replacement
Franson $3.3   $5.0    5 yr after Martinez signed for $6 MIL today      5.0
Bernier $2.9.   $3.5    2 yr      4.0
          $13.735    $18.225        $18.835

How much do you think their contracts will be worth next year?  I put my guesses in BLUE.  Obviously there is no chance for my projected team to work for next year as it is $2 MIL too much and still 2 roster spots need to be filled.

I'd guess/hope they're looking at a Gardiner-like deal for Kadri. Don't think they keep Franson for that little, since he's now on the top pair and he's scoring at an impressive rate. Even if they stop leaning so heavily on Bernier (making him the #1), I still think he won't have a cap hit at what he's making this year ($3.4). Doubt re-signing both Winnik and Santorelli with raises is in the cards: point of the cheap UFA deals is that the roster spots are filled cheaply.

I guess what I see is that it's really hard to re-sign the core pieces -- Kadri and Bernier -- and fill out the roster. Probably impossible if you bring Franson along at what would be within the range of what he could find as a UFA.

Wonder if Lupul or Bozak will be traded for cap relief.

My adjust numbers and replacement players above in blue...

What the lineup looks like and still $4 + MIL over the cap...

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($4.500m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Leo Komarov ($2.950m) / Peter Holland ($0.775m) / Brandon Kozun ($0.605m)
Josh Leivo ($0.793m) / Daniel Winnik ($2.000m) / Richard Panik ($0.772m)
Trevor Smith ($0.550m) / Carter Ashton ($0.893m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m) / Jake Gardiner ($4.050m)
Stephane Robidas ($3.000m) / Roman Polak ($2.750m)
Morgan Rielly ($0.894m) / Cody Franson ($5.000m)
Korbinian Holzer ($1.250m) /

GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($2.300m)
Jonathan Bernier ($4.000m)

BUYOUTS
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)
Tim Gleason ($1.833m)
RETAINED SALARIES (0.29% of upper limit)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.200m?6.35%)

------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $73,064,775; BONUSES: $982,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): -$4,064,775


NASTY!!  Atleast one of the forward's contracts need to be moved if not 2 of them.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Here's hoping we can move Clarkson and sign Santorelli.

Scott Gomez was moved, right?

 

[bustaheims]

Scott Gomez was moved, right?

Unfortunately, Scott Gomez was also still a 50+ point player when he was moved.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Here's hoping we can move Clarkson and sign Santorelli.

Scott Gomez was moved, right?

Looking at next year's numbers ...which will also have Gleason's $1.833 MIL buy out penalty + Gunnarsson's $0.2 MIL retained salary....I believe that Clarkson (preferably) or Lupul (as a last resort) will have to be moved and I don't think there is a chance that Santorelli can be re-signed and the Leafs will need a player like Leivo to step up and fill Santorelli's role at under $1 MIL. 

Clarkson can only be traded or bought out if I am not mistaken. 

Considering his $5.25 MIL hit demoted to the AHL would save $0.925 MIL making his salary $4.325 which is ridiculous but shockingly would still be less than his buyout cap hit loaded with all those signing bonuses...it is unfortunate that Nonis gave Clarkson those insane signing bonuses.

His final 5 years on his contract have a buyout cap hit as follows:

David Clarkson buyout from CapGeek.com
2015-16: $4,716,667
2016-17: $3,716,667
2017-18: $3,716,667
2018-19: $4,716,667
2019-20: $4,716,667

So....buy out isn't an option for the Leafs.

So if the Leafs traded Clarkson and retaining 20% of his salary, the Leafs would be on the hook for $1.05 MIL for 5 years and his new team gets him for $4.2 MIL which is not toooo nuts for them.  I would like to see him traded for a similarly aged rugged dman like M Stuart in Winnipeg.

I am also guessing that the handling of the Leafs Cap by Nonis is going to cost the Leafs either Franson or Gardiner on defense as well.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Here's hoping we can move Clarkson and sign Santorelli.

Scott Gomez was moved, right?

Looking at next year's numbers ...which will also have Gleason's $1.833 MIL buy out penalty + Gunnarsson's $0.2 MIL retained salary....I believe that Clarkson (preferably) or Lupul (as a last resort) will have to be moved and I don't think there is a chance that Santorelli can be re-signed and the Leafs will need a player like Leivo to step up and fill Santorelli's role at under $1 MIL. 

Clarkson can only be traded or bought out if I am not mistaken. 

Considering his $5.25 MIL hit demoted to the AHL would save $0.925 MIL making his salary $4.325 which is ridiculous but shockingly would still be less than his buyout cap hit loaded with all those signing bonuses...it is unfortunate that Nonis gave Clarkson those insane signing bonuses.

His final 5 years on his contract have a buyout cap hit as follows:

David Clarkson buyout from CapGeek.com
2015-16: $4,716,667
2016-17: $3,716,667
2017-18: $3,716,667
2018-19: $4,716,667
2019-20: $4,716,667

So....buy out isn't an option for the Leafs.

So if the Leafs traded Clarkson and retaining 20% of his salary, the Leafs would be on the hook for $1.05 MIL for 5 years and his new team gets him for $4.2 MIL which is not toooo nuts for them.  I would like to see him traded for a similarly aged rugged dman like M Stuart in Winnipeg.

I am also guessing that the handling of the Leafs Cap by Nonis is going to cost the Leafs either Franson or Gardiner on defense as well.

He can't be sent to the minors either because he has a NMC.

Mirtle went over it last April: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-david-clarkson-and-his-buyout-proof-contract/article17783243/

 

[Britishbulldog]

Here's hoping we can move Clarkson and sign Santorelli.

Scott Gomez was moved, right?

Clarkson can only be traded or bought out if I am not mistaken. 

Considering his $5.25 MIL hit demoted to the AHL would save $0.925 MIL making his salary $4.325 which is ridiculous but shockingly would still be less than his buyout cap hit loaded with all those signing bonuses...it is unfortunate that Nonis gave Clarkson those insane signing bonuses.

David Clarkson buyout from CapGeek.com
2015-16: $4,716,667

So....buy out isn't an option for the Leafs.

He can't be sent to the minors either because he has a NMC.

Mirtle went over it last April: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-david-clarkson-and-his-buyout-proof-contract/article17783243/

You're right Potvin 29. I actually had originally mentioned the NMC in the 2nd bolded sentence above instead of 'those insane signing bonuses' but realized I wrote it wrong making it look like the NMC was worse than the ridiculous signing bonuses and was going to put it at the beginning of the 1st bolded sentence but forgot.

I still think the Leafs will have to trade either Clarkson or Lupul and Franson or Gardiner.  I also think they will only be able to keep one of the 3 UFAs they signed this past summer and I am guessing that it will be Winnik who stays and Santorelli and Booth are gone.

 

[Peter D.]

So it sounds like the talk from Edmonton is that they would listen to offers on anyone on the roster. 

If it were up to me, I'd call and initially offer JvR and Gardiner for Hall and see where things could go from there.