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Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

http://dchesnokov.tumblr.com/post/99402041854/alexander-burmistrov-is-pretty-much-asking-for-a-second

This is someone I hope the Leafs would kick the tires on.
 
A tale of two opposites:  The Leafs/Kings comparison... analytics & then some:

Since the 1989-90 season, 45 teams have opened with nine or more wins in October...

Of those, four registered 11 wins and all made the playoffs, as did 10 of the 11 that had 10 wins. On the whole, 26 (57.7%) ended the regular season with 100 or more points, and 39 (86.7%) qualified for post-season play.

PDO is the sum of a team?s Even Strength shooting and save percentages. It regresses towards a team?s underlying ?skill? level over the long term?usually close to 1000. Teams with really strong shooters or goaltending can sustain numbers above 1000, but anything well over 1020 or under 980 is unlikely to last for long. 

The Leafs have sustained the top 5v5 SH% the past four NHL seasons at 8.73%, but their goaltending over that time has been right around NHL average at .9208. That gives you an underlying PDO of 1008.1.

That 10-4-0 October start by the Leafs last year was smoke and mirrors. They were winning with the second-highest PDO in the NHL for the month (1040.2). 
Even with improved goaltending...the team was shooting 9.96%. By way of comparison, look no further than the Kings, who went 9-5-0 in October with a PDO that was 28th at 972.3. 

Toronto?s settled back down to 1006.7 (still No. 8 in the NHL, but far less ridiculous), while Los Angeles saw its rebound to 1007.3 (seventh for the remainder of the year).

In the month of October, L.A. ranked first in Corsi (57.29% CF%), and second in Fenwick (56.74% FF%). The Leafs ranked 30th in Corsi (42.75% CF%) and 30th in Fenwick (41.39% FF%).

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/leafs-and-kings-a-case-study-in-opposites/


 
Anyone find it intriguing when Cox mentioned during the 2nd intermission the Leafs had a deal with L.A. to send Lupul there at the deadline and would get Toffoli + back?

Don't recall any chatter of that at the time. Wouldn't have been a bad deal either.
 
Peter D. said:
Anyone find it intriguing when Cox mentioned during the 2nd intermission the Leafs had a deal with L.A. to send Lupul there at the deadline and would get Toffoli + back?

Don't recall any chatter of that at the time. Wouldn't have been a bad deal either.
Click to expand...

I think that would have been good in the long run for the leafs, but I can certainly understand why the kings would have chosen Gaborik over Lupul if given the choice.
 
Is anyone else torn on a guy like Lupul? I mean he's not elite, but he's a pretty good goal scorer getting paid fairly but is injured often. I know that in the long run they're probably better off moving him for younger assets but I just love his passion for Leafs nation. He loves playing in Toronto and genuinely wants to win here.
 
Kessel Run said:
Is anyone else torn on a guy like Lupul? I mean he's not elite, but he's a pretty good goal scorer getting paid fairly but is injured often. I know that in the long run they're probably better off moving him for younger assets but I just love his passion for Leafs nation. He loves playing in Toronto and genuinely wants to win here.
Click to expand...

I like Lupul.  He's the kind of character player the Leafs need more of.  His genuine fondness for playing here shows through his efforts.  While he may not be the greatest or most perfect Leaf on the ice, he does his job well.  Too bad he is oft-injured.
 
I know it's only been 3 games but Percy looks like he'll be a full timer in the near future.

That gives us Gardiner, Rielly and Percy as keepers moving forward it would seem.

Lots of spare parts to move before next season.

 
Wonder if Moulson could be had for a decent price while his production is down to start the season. I guess the Cap hit would be a problem, but he'd sure look nice with Lupul and Kadri IMO.

What about for Franson? Is that enough? Too much?

I get the feeling Franson won't be here next year anyway so....
 
Chev-boyar-sky said:
Wonder if Moulson could be had for a decent price while his production is down to start the season. I guess the Cap hit would be a problem, but he'd sure look nice with Lupul and Kadri IMO.

What about for Franson? Is that enough? Too much?

I get the feeling Franson won't be here next year anyway so....
Click to expand...

I don't imagine Buffalo has much interest in trading him this early into his new contract, and, even if they do, I doubt they have much interest in Franson as the return. Slow starts don't really impact a player's value to the GMs around the league - especially when we're really only talking about a handful of games.
 
RedLeaf said:
Where there's smoke?

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kypreos-leafs-talked-babcock-with-wings/
Click to expand...

The question should be:  what happens to Carlyle's two-year extension?  Will it last or won't it

If Eakins gets da boot from Edmonton after this season, and Babcock is free to contemplate,  would it be too much for Eakins to return to the Leafs and the Oilers sign up Babcock?
 
hockeyfan1 said:
RedLeaf said:
Where there's smoke?

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kypreos-leafs-talked-babcock-with-wings/
Click to expand...

The question should be:  what happens to Carlyle's two-year extension?  Will it last or won't it

If Eakins gets da boot from Edmonton after this season, and Babcock is free to contemplate,  would it be too much for Eakins to return to the Leafs and the Oilers sign up Babcock?
Click to expand...

Carlyle's contract status is meaningless, his future will be decided by the teams on ice performance and that alone, the contract was simply to stop him being viewed as a lame duck by the players.
 
Patrick said:
hockeyfan1 said:
RedLeaf said:
Where there's smoke?

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kypreos-leafs-talked-babcock-with-wings/
Click to expand...

The question should be:  what happens to Carlyle's two-year extension?  Will it last or won't it

If Eakins gets da boot from Edmonton after this season, and Babcock is free to contemplate,  would it be too much for Eakins to return to the Leafs and the Oilers sign up Babcock?
Click to expand...

Carlyle's contract status is meaningless, his future will be decided by the teams on ice performance and that alone, the contract was simply to stop him being viewed as a lame duck by the players.
Click to expand...

... and suppose the team's performance on the ice translates into a couple of playoff appearances?  I'm doubtful myself, but with the Leafs one never knows what surprises they might spring.
 
Excellent article by Cathel Kelly in the Globe about Babcock and why he has to choose the Leafs?he has already established himself as the premier coach of our generation, yet to stand in with the immortals like Scotty Bowman he has to take an Original Six team and turn them around and make them Stanley Cup champions.  The only candidate team for this is the Leafs.
Academic my dear Watson.
 
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/leafs-almost-dealt-franson-for-his-next-door-neighbour/


Too bad Gorges wouldn't agree to come here. He would've been a good defensive acquisition for our top pairing (not that he's a top pairing D-man, but he'd cover for a lot of Dion's gaffes).
 
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