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Opening Forward Lines

bustaheims said:
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Same response to CTB: Komarov may not fix that line's defensive problems, but he has to make it better, by default.  It's just not tenable to ice a line that can only function on half the ice.
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Well, the real question there is whether or not the added defence provides more than the subtracted offence, and, that's a complicated issue. For a team that, right now, is having trouble finding offence past the top line, scoring is becoming a serious priority.
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Exactly.
 
Good article on how well Kadri-Lupul have played so far this season even if it is not reflected in their point totals:

For the inquisitive, here is some of the math on how snake bitten the Leafs second line has been.

Kadri has been on the ice for 69 shots for and 57 against at even strength, making him one of only five forwards on the team with a positive ratio in that regard. The Leafs have scored only three times on those 69 shots, however, for a 4.35 shooting percentage that is way below Kadri?s career average (9.70).

But that?s not really on him. Kadri has scored two of those goals and taken 13 of those shots, meaning that the defencemen and wingers he has been on the ice with have converted on only 1.8 per cent of their opportunities.

That?s led to Kadri having the 15th lowest PDO among forwards leaguewide, meaning essentially he has been one of the unluckiest players in the league.

All these numbers are ridiculously low and unsustainable over a larger set of games.

The funny thing about Kadri being in this position and taking heat early in the year is that two seasons ago, exactly the opposite happened. In the lockout-shortened year, he led the league in both on-ice shooting percentage and PDO, had 39 points in his first 36 games and was hailed as the league?s next breakout star.

What had actually happened was he got every bounce possible: Everything went in.

The next season, his production normalized (50 points in 78 games last year) and he drew criticism despite finishing tied for 80th in league scoring while playing on a second line.

Now, his ?puck luck? has dried up entirely.
Click to expand...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/kadri-lupul-proving-point-totals-arent-everything/article21375605/
 
Potvin29 said:
Good article on how well Kadri-Lupul have played so far this season even if it is not reflected in their point totals:

For the inquisitive, here is some of the math on how snake bitten the Leafs second line has been.

Kadri has been on the ice for 69 shots for and 57 against at even strength, making him one of only five forwards on the team with a positive ratio in that regard. The Leafs have scored only three times on those 69 shots, however, for a 4.35 shooting percentage that is way below Kadri?s career average (9.70).

But that?s not really on him. Kadri has scored two of those goals and taken 13 of those shots, meaning that the defencemen and wingers he has been on the ice with have converted on only 1.8 per cent of their opportunities.

That?s led to Kadri having the 15th lowest PDO among forwards leaguewide, meaning essentially he has been one of the unluckiest players in the league.

All these numbers are ridiculously low and unsustainable over a larger set of games.

The funny thing about Kadri being in this position and taking heat early in the year is that two seasons ago, exactly the opposite happened. In the lockout-shortened year, he led the league in both on-ice shooting percentage and PDO, had 39 points in his first 36 games and was hailed as the league?s next breakout star.

What had actually happened was he got every bounce possible: Everything went in.

The next season, his production normalized (50 points in 78 games last year) and he drew criticism despite finishing tied for 80th in league scoring while playing on a second line.

Now, his ?puck luck? has dried up entirely.
Click to expand...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/kadri-lupul-proving-point-totals-arent-everything/article21375605/
Click to expand...

Yeah, they certainly don't have much puck-luck early this season.  It extends to the PowerPlay as well.... Both Lupul and Kadri have zero points on the PP (5 shots and 9 shots respectively), and have been on the ice for just 1 PP goal (less than 5% on-ice shooting percentages for both on the PP).  In fact, they have one short-handed goal against them and have a power-play PDO under 85.

They certainly deserve better and have been playing much better than their point totals suggest.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
bustaheims said:
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Same response to CTB: Komarov may not fix that line's defensive problems, but he has to make it better, by default.  It's just not tenable to ice a line that can only function on half the ice.
Click to expand...

Well, the real question there is whether or not the added defence provides more than the subtracted offence, and, that's a complicated issue. For a team that, right now, is having trouble finding offence past the top line, scoring is becoming a serious priority.
Click to expand...

Exactly.
Click to expand...

Well, so far so good on the line shuffling.  Three games do not a season make (and the goaltending has been better ... that may be the reason for the wake-up as much as the new lines) but they look like a different team than the dogs who showed up against Boston.
 
Ashton's played well in his limited time. He's skating a lot better than I remembered. I can't see Frattin beating him out for a spot. I think Ashton-Holland-Kozun/Carrick/Booth is the best 4th line we've seen in a long time.
 
Bullfrog said:
Ashton's played well in his limited time. He's skating a lot better than I remembered. I can't see Frattin beating him out for a spot. I think Ashton-Holland-Kozun/Carrick/Booth is the best 4th line we've seen in a long time.
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After the last couple of games I could see the healthy lines being:

JVR / Bozak / Clarkson

Winnik / Kadri / Kessel

Lupul / Santorelli / Booth

Komarov / Holland / Kozun
 
I wouldn't be so quick to throw Booth in the top-9. He was pretty unimpressive during the preseason. Even if he hadn't been injured I think he would have started on the 4th line. And now he's coming off an injury where he hasn't been able to skate much for over a month while everyone else had been playing regular season hockey.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
I wouldn't be so quick to throw Booth in the top-9. He was pretty unimpressive during the preseason. Even if he hadn't been injured I think he would have started on the 4th line. And now he's coming off an injury where he hasn't been able to skate much for over a month while everyone else had been playing regular season hockey.
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I did see much. At least it is only a 1million dollar contract.
 
Certainly Booth should start on the 4th line when he is ready. but seems to have Lupul syndrome with the injuries. To bad as he is a character player.  But it seems the Leafs are making this crew earn it this year..
 
Highlander said:
Certainly Booth should start on the 4th line when he is ready. but seems to have Lupul syndrome with the injuries. To bad as he is a character player.  But it seems the Leafs are making this crew earn it this year..
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Yes, but anyone can brake bones when blocking shots. You dont have too be injury prone
 
CarltonTheBear said:
I wouldn't be so quick to throw Booth in the top-9. He was pretty unimpressive during the preseason. Even if he hadn't been injured I think he would have started on the 4th line. And now he's coming off an injury where he hasn't been able to skate much for over a month while everyone else had been playing regular season hockey.
Click to expand...

Agreed, he definitely should not get a spot in the top 9. Maybe he gets on the 4th line right away but personally I wouldn't do that.
 
I would like to see something like this:
JVR / Bozak / Clarkson
Matched up to top lines; Balanced, cycle-based attack; 18-20 min

Winnik / Kadri / Kessel
Stacked against 2-3 lines for speed mismatches and capitalizing in transition; 14-18 minutes

Lupul  / Holland / Komarov
Sheltered scoring line; 8-14 minutes

Kozun / Santorelli / Booth
Takes the puck and keeps it down low; Might not score, but can chip in every so often and wear other teams down; Carlyle shouldn't be afraid to play this 4th line; 10-14 minutes

Winnik and Lupul can swap as required. Booth can be subbed with the Marlie du jour (Leivo, Carrick, Ashton)
 
Potvin29 said:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/kadri-dropped-from-power-play-as-leafs-get-healthy/article21761810/
Click to expand...

Well, that's certainly not going to help all the handwringing about his production. Not sure why Lupul is replacing Kadri on the second unit. He should be replacing Clarkson.
 
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