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Opening Forward Lines

Bullfrog said:
No, but there's nobody saying he needs to take the next step in his offensive game or be traded.

That's because Bozak has reached his peak.  We don't know yet whether Kadri has.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Bullfrog said:
No, but there's nobody saying he needs to take the next step in his offensive game or be traded.

That's because Bozak has reached his peak.  We don't know yet whether Kadri has.

Bozak is currently on 80pt pace.
Kadri is on a 40 pt pace.

How can you say Bozak has reached his peak?

We overvalue Kadri potential.
 
freer said:
Bozak is currently on 80pt pace.
Kadri is on a 40 pt pace.

How can you say Bozak has reached his peak?

We overvalue Kadri potential.

At even strength, they're producing at roughly the same p/g pace, despite Bozak having significantly superior line mates and averaging 1:30 more ES TOI a night.. You're overvaluing Bozak's production because you're not putting it in context. Give Kadri Bozak's line mates, and he's easily putting up similar, if not better, numbers. It's not Kadri's potential that's being valued so highly. It's his skill level, which is significantly higher than Bozak's. Kadri drives the offence on his line. Bozak doesn't.
 
bustaheims said:
freer said:
Bozak is currently on 80pt pace.
Kadri is on a 40 pt pace.

How can you say Bozak has reached his peak?

We overvalue Kadri potential.

At even strength, they're producing at roughly the same p/g pace, despite Bozak having significantly superior line mates and averaging 1:30 more ES TOI a night.. You're overvaluing Bozak's production because you're not putting it in context. Give Kadri Bozak's line mates, and he's easily putting up similar, if not better, numbers. It's not Kadri's potential that's being valued so highly. It's his skill level, which is significantly higher than Bozak's. Kadri drives the offence on his line. Bozak doesn't.

Sorry I don't see it. I see a player who has glimmers of greatness once every few games, and then he disappears. I don't over value Bozak, he is a good 2nd line center on any other team.
 
freer said:
Sorry I don't see it. I see a player who has glimmers of greatness once every few games, and then he disappears. I don't over value Bozak, he is a good 2nd line center on any other team.

It's hard to shine bright when you're playing with two black holes on your wings. There's only so much he can do playing with Clarkson and Winnik. The fact that he's produced as much as he has is actually quite remarkable and speaks to just how talented he is.
 
bustaheims said:
freer said:
Sorry I don't see it. I see a player who has glimmers of greatness once every few games, and then he disappears. I don't over value Bozak, he is a good 2nd line center on any other team.

It's hard to shine bright when you're playing with two black holes on your wings. There's only so much he can do playing with Clarkson and Winnik. The fact that he's produced as much as he has is actually quite remarkable and speaks to just how talented he is.

He plays with lupul when healthy and he ain't a black hole.  Also Clarkson is productive this season.  He has 6 goals putting him just behind kessel, JVR and bozak in the goal scoring department.
 
freer said:
bustaheims said:
freer said:
Bozak is currently on 80pt pace.
Kadri is on a 40 pt pace.

How can you say Bozak has reached his peak?

We overvalue Kadri potential.

At even strength, they're producing at roughly the same p/g pace, despite Bozak having significantly superior line mates and averaging 1:30 more ES TOI a night.. You're overvaluing Bozak's production because you're not putting it in context. Give Kadri Bozak's line mates, and he's easily putting up similar, if not better, numbers. It's not Kadri's potential that's being valued so highly. It's his skill level, which is significantly higher than Bozak's. Kadri drives the offence on his line. Bozak doesn't.

Sorry I don't see it. I see a player who has glimmers of greatness once every few games, and then he disappears. I don't over value Bozak, he is a good 2nd line center on any other team.

Kadri's pretty consistently outproduced Bozak if you look at the stats on a rate basis per the ice time each gets.  Kadri will probably look worse in total points - he plays less minutes with worse offensive players.  It stands to reason his totals will look worse.  It's not a knock on Bozak at all, I just think Kadri is better and deserves a chance to prove that.

You see glimmers of greatness that disappears - this seems to be a common criticism of Kadri that isn't applied to Bozak as well.  Bozak isn't great all the time, but he's set up to look better playing with better linemates than Kadri.  I think Kadri's numbers speak to a player who has the ability to drive his line better than Bozak drives his line.

And I think, at this point, dropping Bozak from the top line won't have much of a negative impact.  It's not like the team has been barnstorming with him there (a position he seemingly never has to lose grasp of) so maybe Kadri being the top C can actually be beneficial to the team.  Maybe his skillset will help that top line spend less time in its own end and more time in the other end.
 
Rebel_1812 said:
He plays with lupul when healthy and he ain't a black hole.  Also Clarkson is productive this season.  He has 6 goals putting him just behind kessel, JVR and bozak in the goal scoring department.

Well, Lupul has missed more than half the team's games so far, and may not be on Kadri's line tonight. Right now, he's a part time piece on Kadri's wing. And, while Clarkson has had some more success putting the puck in the net this season, he still can't make a pass to save his life and is only marginally better at receiving them. A lot of potentially good offensive plays have died on or around his stick so far this season. He may not be as big as an offensive black hole as he was last season, he's still more negative than positive when it comes to making plays.
 
freer said:
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Bullfrog said:
No, but there's nobody saying he needs to take the next step in his offensive game or be traded.

That's because Bozak has reached his peak.  We don't know yet whether Kadri has.

Bozak is currently on 80pt pace.
Kadri is on a 40 pt pace.

How can you say Bozak has reached his peak?

We overvalue Kadri potential.

Tyler Bozak - Age 24 - 32 points in 82 games -29...you know just for a little perspective.
 
L K said:
Tyler Bozak - Age 24 - 32 points in 82 games -29...you know just for a little perspective.

But that was Bozak's first full year in the league. When you look at the players out there who don't typically peak at 22-27 they tend to be guys like Bozak with unusual development stories who didn't make the NHL until later on.
 
A+ for some of the creative justifications, but at the end of the day, he's a 2nd line center regularly getting PP time, ranked 196th in points. I think everyone expected more.
 
bustaheims said:
It's not Kadri's potential that's being valued so highly. It's his skill level, which is significantly higher than Bozak's.

I think you might sort of be agreeing with me partially, but I have to point out that these two are basically the same thing.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I think you might sort of be agreeing with me partially, but I have to point out that these two are basically the same thing.

I'm not, really. I don't think Kadri has to prove anything. He's proven more than enough to me, and, if he ever gets consistent time with 2 quality wingers, I think he'll show his detractors/doubters as well.
 
2badknees said:
A+ for some of the creative justifications, but at the end of the day, he's a 2nd line center regularly getting PP time, ranked 196th in points. I think everyone expected more.

I can only speak for myself but I remember that a lot of what was being said going into the season was that the Leafs needed to find a second line that really worked. With nobody really stepping up for that #6 spot and Lupul being out of the line-up as much as he has I think that it would be a little unfair to categorize the majority opinion as being that Kadri was going to have a big year regardless of what went on around him.
 
Nik the Trik said:
I can only speak for myself but I remember that a lot of what was being said going into the season was that the Leafs needed to find a second line that really worked. With nobody really stepping up for that #6 spot and Lupul being out of the line-up as much as he has I think that it would be a little unfair to categorize the majority opinion as being that Kadri was going to have a big year regardless of what went on around him.

I think you could say any player would be better surrounded by better players. The argument that Sundin rarely had complementary talent has a lot of merit, yet he managed to have a HOF career. If Kadri was paired with Orr and Mclaren, I'd be willing to give more latitude, but 2nd line minutes with such low output is indicative of more than just the play of others. Holland hasn't had the minutes or top wingers, yet he's produced offensively.
 
2badknees said:
I think you could say any player would be better surrounded by better players. The argument that Sundin rarely had complementary talent has a lot of merit, yet he managed to have a HOF career.

Which would be valid, I suppose, if anyone was putting Kadri on par Sundin but nobody's doing that and nobody expected that from Kadri before the season began.

But, really, Sundin is really just concrete evidence supporting what's being said about Kadri. Sundin was a HOF player who would light it up with the best in the world at best-on-best tournaments and then, with substandard linemates, scored 75-80 points a year and was never really in the running for major awards. Sundin's linemates probably cost him 15-20 points a year. He didn't produce commensurate with his skill level because of his linemates and, right now, the same is true with Kadri.
 
Disagree. His underperformance is not as simple as to be blamed on his linemates in its entirety. There are certainly 2nd line players in the NHL that perform despite a crutch - and many more that do not have the benefit of power play time.

I have removed his caricature from Mt. Lushmore, as well as his favorite song out of the jukebox.
 
2badknees said:
Disagree. His underperformance is not as simple as to be blamed on his linemates in its entirety.

Not in its entirety, no, but that's when it gets important to remember the relatively small sample size. Right now the difference between what Kadri has produced and what he would have to in order to be at a 50 point pace is four points. The difference between him now and a 60 point pace is 6 points or so. If you agree that Lupul's absence alone probably cost Kadri a few points then the stuff that can't be attributed to his situation is relatively minor.
 

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