Opening Forward Lines

[leafplasma]

Jonas Siegel‏@jonasTSN1050?7 mins7 minutes ago

Potential Leafs lineup taking shape at practice: JVR-Bozak-Kessel. Lupul-Kadri-Leivo. Komarov-Holland-Nylander. Winnik-Santorelli-Kozun.

Jonas Siegel‏@jonasTSN1050?7 mins7 minutes ago

Matt Frattin notably not amongst first four forward lines. Clarkson participating in practice but given injury seems unlikely for Friday.

Discuss...

If the line of thinking was to ice this lineup for tonight's game then it makes sense to keep Orr and McLaren in the press box for now.  I fully expect them to both get cut and all of this hoopla is merely media speculation right now.  If Ashton is traded it is because they want Leivo and Kozun or maybe even a taste of Nylander with the big club now and not because one of Orr and McLaren will be with this team opening night.  I wouldn't put any merit in what Randy is saying in regards to a fighter in the lineup either as I fully expect Nonis or Shanny to put their foot down over the weekend. 

If Leivo, Nylander and Kozun shine tonight, they stick and Frattin and Clarkson if ready round out the 14.  Booth returns, Nylander goes to Sweden or the AHL.  If one of these three come up short and a good deal doesn't happen for Ashton, my hope is that Ashton sticks around and we lose nothing.  Shanny has made too many bold moves for anything other than the above to happen.  The days of Burke saying RC picks the roster are over, RC has zero leeway right now.

 

[Tigger]

Breathing room while implementing changes? It seems rather absurd to me to think this team was going to be a lot better/different overnight, especially in pre season games, why throw 'Shanny's' guys into that particular fire?

I think people would generally be more accepting of the team not showing significant improvement quickly if they felt there was at least a real change in the direction it was taking. Hanging on to Nonis and Carlyle - especially the latter - makes it hard to have that perception of the team, even though those working under them have changed. It's hard to believe the team is really making changes when the people in charge still includes the two guys that lead to team to spectacular failure last season.

First, I think perception at the board level is a bit different than say the 'DieWilsonDie' crowd. The Leafs have created an analytics department, replaced the assistant coaches ( Horachek in particular seems like a good move ), revamped the roster ( not the core but decently for support ) picked talent near the top of the draft and it looks like they are not hanging on to the truculent-but-not-hockey players. Calling out an organizational failure at this point seems really premature, especially where any hope of analytics having an impact is concerned.

Perhaps the problem is that 'believing' in something is to say that you likely don't have all the facts at hand, or have an idea about how any changes might affect the team in years beyond this one ( or even when this season starts ). I think Nonis and Carlyle have shown the ability to be quite competent in their field, should they fail, it won't be hard for Shanahan to get board approval for the next round of overhaul and still maintain his status as 'the guy' bringing in 'his guys'.

If people are expecting significant improvement quickly, well, they were more than likely going to be disappointed no matter who the GM and coach were going forward this year. As long as they show progress I for one will be happy.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Mirtle does a pretty good job here demonstrating the impact of the bottom forwards last season.  He finds that the possession numbers would go up 0.5% with Orr removed (not a huge amount, but shows the potentially negative impact 1 player in small minutes can have).

It?s exciting for fans in Toronto, too. No team was hindered more by its lack of forward depth last year than the Leafs: Despite having one of the highest-scoring top lines in the game, the Leafs were merely average offensively at even strength.

The reason? Their forwards beyond the top six produced fewer goals than any other team?s, weighed down by a lack of suitable injury replacements and an insistence on carrying two fighters at the expense of more skilled players.

...

The opposite happened in Toronto the past two years. Orr played 566 minutes of hockey in which the Leafs had a possession rating of less than 39 per cent. In the 168 minutes he was on the ice with McLaren, that fell to less than 35, meaning the opposition had nearly two shot attempts for every one by the Leafs.

Few duos were worse league-wide.

Their limited minutes may seem like small potatoes ? Orr appeared in a little less than 10 per cent of Toronto?s even-strength minutes the past two seasons ? but they hurt in other ways, too.

The Leafs couldn?t move the enforcers up the lineup when injuries hit. They generally kept two roster spots out of 23 open for them as well, meaning players had to be waived or traded around them.

And they often nullified the offence of players they played with.

Toronto obviously had other pressing problems, but moving past the outmoded idea that they needed an unskilled puncher will help. If you remove Orr?s minutes in close situations from their results, the Leafs? possession ticks up a half a percentage point, and every little bit helps in their bid to get closer to the 50 mark than last season.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-are-finally-on-board-with-nhls-shift-from-fights-to-finesse/article20957366/

The bottom 6 forwards this season should easily eclipse the contributions the Leafs received last season from those spots.

 

[freer]

Mirtle does a pretty good job here demonstrating the impact of the bottom forwards last season.  He finds that the possession numbers would go up 0.5% with Orr removed (not a huge amount, but shows the potentially negative impact 1 player in small minutes can have).

It?s exciting for fans in Toronto, too. No team was hindered more by its lack of forward depth last year than the Leafs: Despite having one of the highest-scoring top lines in the game, the Leafs were merely average offensively at even strength.

The reason? Their forwards beyond the top six produced fewer goals than any other team?s, weighed down by a lack of suitable injury replacements and an insistence on carrying two fighters at the expense of more skilled players.

...

The opposite happened in Toronto the past two years. Orr played 566 minutes of hockey in which the Leafs had a possession rating of less than 39 per cent. In the 168 minutes he was on the ice with McLaren, that fell to less than 35, meaning the opposition had nearly two shot attempts for every one by the Leafs.

Few duos were worse league-wide.

Their limited minutes may seem like small potatoes ? Orr appeared in a little less than 10 per cent of Toronto?s even-strength minutes the past two seasons ? but they hurt in other ways, too.

The Leafs couldn?t move the enforcers up the lineup when injuries hit. They generally kept two roster spots out of 23 open for them as well, meaning players had to be waived or traded around them.

And they often nullified the offence of players they played with.

Toronto obviously had other pressing problems, but moving past the outmoded idea that they needed an unskilled puncher will help. If you remove Orr?s minutes in close situations from their results, the Leafs? possession ticks up a half a percentage point, and every little bit helps in their bid to get closer to the 50 mark than last season.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-are-finally-on-board-with-nhls-shift-from-fights-to-finesse/article20957366/

The bottom 6 forwards this season should easily eclipse the contributions the Leafs received last season from those spots.

Probably in the first 10 games

 

[bustaheims]

jonasTSN1050: Leafs make some roster changes as @DarrenDreger noted earlier. Cody Franson on IR, Troy Bodie recalled, Stuart Percy sent down. (1/2)

jonasTSN1050: Much of this to do with the cap. Percy will be back tomorrow and Franson will not play against Montreal. (2/2)

jonasTSN1050: Leafs roster now stands at 22 players.

 

[ZBBM]

Mirtle is probably my pick for best hockey beat writer out there (admittedly, not that I know that many).  Anyway, he's clearly the best of the bunch that follows the Leafs.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

jonasTSN1050: Leafs make some roster changes as @DarrenDreger noted earlier. Cody Franson on IR, Troy Bodie recalled, Stuart Percy sent down. (1/2)

jonasTSN1050: Much of this to do with the cap. Percy will be back tomorrow and Franson will not play against Montreal. (2/2)

jonasTSN1050: Leafs roster now stands at 22 players.

So weird having a capologist who knows how the cap works.

 

[bustaheims]

So weird having a capologist who knows how the cap works.

I know, right?

 

[2badknees]

Ugh, I cant wait until that expression dies out.

Mirtle is ok, but sometimes he goes for too much volume instead of quality. Part of being successful at the gig, I guess.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Don't necessarily agree right now because of what it could do to the 2nd line, but a decent argument to be made here: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kadri-deserves-leafs-top-line-role/

 

[pmrules]

Don't necessarily agree right now because of what it could do to the 2nd line, but a decent argument to be made here: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kadri-deserves-leafs-top-line-role/

I'm just tired and bored of this argument.  We all know that Kadri is better statistically than Bozak.  There is no doubt in my mind, yours, and in most leaf fans minds.  Kadri is better.  I don't need advanced stats to tell me this (and frankly, neither do you). 

But, Kadri had his chance to play with Kessel last year in a limited role...and it didn't work out so well.  I don't care what the spreadsheet says. 

Bozak and Kessel work well together for whatever reason...it defies logic...i get that...just let it be.  We all know that if Bozak gets traded of if that duo splits up, that there is no chance Bozak duplicates these numbers without Kessel.  But for know, Bozak with Kessel is just magic for some strange reason.  Let's ride that duo and spread the scoring to the 2nd with Lupul and Kadri (maybe try JVR there along with).

Generating or getting offense is not this team's problem...not by a long shot.  Kadri will get his chance again once if Bozak gets hurt or if the line starts to struggle for an extended period of time (which based on history, I don't see happening).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Don't necessarily agree right now because of what it could do to the 2nd line, but a decent argument to be made here: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kadri-deserves-leafs-top-line-role/

But, Kadri had his chance to play with Kessel last year in a limited role...and it didn't work out so well.  I don't care what the spreadsheet says. 

That's just not true.

And if you're tired and bored of the argument feel free to ignore it.  Won't insult me. 

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Don't necessarily agree right now because of what it could do to the 2nd line, but a decent argument to be made here: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kadri-deserves-leafs-top-line-role/

But, Kadri had his chance to play with Kessel last year in a limited role...and it didn't work out so well.  I don't care what the spreadsheet says. 

That's just not true.

And if you're tired and bored of the argument feel free to ignore it.  Won't insult me.

I watched the Colorado telecast last night (NHL Center Ice) and it was interesting to listen to the talk about the top line.  Lots of man love for Kessel and JVR, but they really went on about Bozak and how he is the magical element that holds that line together and makes them sing.  I don't know that I agree, but it was interesting to hear their take on it given how often they call games between the two teams. 

On a side note, that broadcast had the Avs ahead of the Leafs in hits... To me it looked like the Leafs really took it to them, but I wasn't counting.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Don't necessarily agree right now because of what it could do to the 2nd line, but a decent argument to be made here: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kadri-deserves-leafs-top-line-role/

But, Kadri had his chance to play with Kessel last year in a limited role...and it didn't work out so well.  I don't care what the spreadsheet says. 

That's just not true.

And if you're tired and bored of the argument feel free to ignore it.  Won't insult me.

I watched the Colorado telecast last night (NHL Center Ice) and it was interesting to listen to the talk about the top line.  Lots of man love for Kessel and JVR, but they really went on about Bozak and how he is the magical element that holds that line together and makes them sing.  I don't know that I agree, but it was interesting to hear their take on it given how often they call games between the two teams. 

On a side note, that broadcast had the Avs ahead of the Leafs in hits... To me it looked like the Leafs really took it to them, but I wasn't counting.

NHL had the hits as 37-35 in favour of the Leafs.  Sounds about right. 

As for Bozak on that line.  I don't think you can deny they have some very good chemistry together offensively.  Unfortunately, for all the scoring they may do, they are giving up way too many chances and getting hemmed in their own end a whole lot.  Only the 4th line has worse Corsi ratings than our top line.

 

[2badknees]

Only the 4th line has worse Corsi ratings than our top line.

Like, last year? or the massive sample size of the 2014-2015 season to date?

 

[pmrules]

Don't necessarily agree right now because of what it could do to the 2nd line, but a decent argument to be made here: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kadri-deserves-leafs-top-line-role/

But, Kadri had his chance to play with Kessel last year in a limited role...and it didn't work out so well.  I don't care what the spreadsheet says. 

That's just not true.

And if you're tired and bored of the argument feel free to ignore it.  Won't insult me.

It absolutely wasn't meant as an insult to you potvin...not at all.  I've just heard this for over 2 years now.

 

[ZBBM]

Anyone for a breakup of the top line?  I'd like to see more of a defensive presence there.  Komarov?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Anyone for a breakup of the top line?  I'd like to see more of a defensive presence there.  Komarov?

Komarov-Kadri-Kessel
JVR-Bozak-Clarkson
Lupul-Santorelli-Ashton
Panik-Holland-Winnik

We need to have 3 lines that can score, and while our current 3rd line has looked effective at times it just doesn't have that threat. Maybe swap Frattin for Ashton but I'd like to see what he could do with a couple decent players.

 

[sickbeast]

The big problem has been that Kessel, Kadri, and Lupul are all huge defensive liabilities.

 

[leafplasma]

Anyone for a breakup of the top line?  I'd like to see more of a defensive presence there.  Komarov?

Komarov-Kadri-Kessel
JVR-Bozak-Clarkson
Lupul-Santorelli-Ashton
Panik-Holland-Winnik

We need to have 3 lines that can score, and while our current 3rd line has looked effective at times it just doesn't have that threat. Maybe swap Frattin for Ashton but I'd like to see what he could do with a couple decent players.

Komarov-Kadri-Kessel
JVR-Bozak-Clarkson
Lupul-Holland-Santorelli
Panik-Winnik-Ashton

I like what you have but I can't see Ashton deserving of a 3rd line spot more than Holland deserving of the promo to the 3rd line.  I am not basing this on just this season but from what I have seen from both of them in other seasons.  I move Santo to wing on the third and Winnik to centre on the 4th line as he has spent time at that position in his career. 

In any case we definitely need to spread out the defensively responsible forwards throughout the lineup.  I am convinced it is the only way to do it with the core group of skilled players we have as none of them have any remnants of a 2 way game.