Other draft day targets
- Thread starter Kin
- Start date
bustaheims
Active member
Bill_Berg said:
I'm not so sure about that. At the draft, you get him for two full seasons. With his easy to manage cap hit, that's more valuable to a lot of teams than one season and another playoff run - especially a team that finished last season just barely on the outside.
herman
Well-known member
bustaheims said:
Due to lack of scoring ::sad panda::
After I wrote it, I immediately thought, is this an overpayment? Obviously I'd dangle just JvR first to see how they feel about it since they have a 21st. They need to win to survive financially right now, let alone the future. Granted they're a bit overloaded on the left side at the moment...
Bill_Berg
Active member
bustaheims said:
I didn't mean Carolina would pay more at the trade deadline, should have started a new paragraph. I meant in general. A team that's good and needs a little more scoring to be a contender. Teams overpay at the deadline and JVR could fetch a nifty return for a team going for it all. I question if Carolina would trade the 13th pick at all.
Kin
New member
I don't know if it's as true that teams overpay at the deadline the way they used to. Only one first rounder got dealt this year(Chicago's, for Ladd) and only a couple of 2nd's. The Leafs didn't get much for Reimer, couldn't find any takers for PAP and really only did particularly well in a deal that was less about a team overpaying for a player and more about them overpaying to dump a bad contract.
The trade deadline was pretty quiet this year. I think that might be a growing trend.
The trade deadline was pretty quiet this year. I think that might be a growing trend.
Bullfrog said:
Yeah Lucic was traded for the 13th overall pick in 2015 and Martin Jones (who was later turned into a 1st round pick in 2016) before the draft last year. He had 1 year left on his deal too. I think you might be able to argue that Lucic is a better player, or at least that he might have more trade value, but the gap isn't that big.
herman
Well-known member
Is there a fit for trading JVr for Vancouver's 5th? They don't have much going on after that, and it doesn't sound like they're completely sold on who they'd pick at that slot anyway, plus they're looking to try to sell a playoff team, rather than the sad sacks they were this year.
I don't think JvR alone pushes them into playoff contention, but I also don't think Jim Benning is free to actually make wise decisions.
I don't think JvR alone pushes them into playoff contention, but I also don't think Jim Benning is free to actually make wise decisions.
Kin
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
I think the thing is though that the closer a player is to being really among the best in the league at a position or even the best of a type their value will grow exponentially. Rightly or wrongly, I think Lucic is seen as one of the very best power forwards in the league.
JVR is a good player but I don't think he's got the same cache.
Nik the Trik said:
I don't disagree with that, but I don't think the gap is enough to have to add a 1st round pick instead of receiving another asset valued at a 1st round pick. Going right in the middle, him for a mid-1st round pick seems fair to me.
Although, like you said earlier, that's assuming we can find a team who's willing to move a 1st for someone who can step in immediately.
Bill_Berg
Active member
I found this site showing a recent history of 30th overall picks, not a very inspiring list as far as well known names go. I'm sure there are a bunch of guys in here whose names I don't recognize or remember that played a bunch of games, but I was expecting better results for these picks historically. http://www.mynhldraft.com/nhl-draft-picks/30th-overall/300509/
I searched for a similar list for the 31st pick and didn't find one but I did look though a list of all picks for 31st overalls, which I don't intend to copy and paste out of, but here is that link: http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftsearch.htm?year=&team=&position=&round=2
Adam Foote and Adam Graves at 31st stood out and Patrice Brisebois at 30th.
It will be very interesting to see how the Leafs make out with these two picks. My opinion of their value as a trade asset is much lower now that it was prior to this minimal research. It also makes me lean towards thinking drafting goalies with these two picks is the best idea. If the hit rate is really low, stock up on a weak position, and I would expect the hit rate to be better for goalies.
I searched for a similar list for the 31st pick and didn't find one but I did look though a list of all picks for 31st overalls, which I don't intend to copy and paste out of, but here is that link: http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftsearch.htm?year=&team=&position=&round=2
Adam Foote and Adam Graves at 31st stood out and Patrice Brisebois at 30th.
It will be very interesting to see how the Leafs make out with these two picks. My opinion of their value as a trade asset is much lower now that it was prior to this minimal research. It also makes me lean towards thinking drafting goalies with these two picks is the best idea. If the hit rate is really low, stock up on a weak position, and I would expect the hit rate to be better for goalies.
Kin
New member
Just for some quick clarification, Graves and Foote didn't get picked 31st overall, they got picked with the first pick of the second round which was at the time the 22nd overall pick.
Hockeydb does a "best player by position" for every draft pick:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/draft_bests.php?page=1
Where you can see that they have the best #30 picks as Sandis Ozolinsh and our ol' pal Randy Carlyle and the best #31 picks as two ex-Leafs in Felix Potvin and Tiger Williams.
But if you look through those lists so much of it is random. Picks #35 and #44 have yielded better returns than #32 and #29. There's really no rhyme or reason to it. Good players can be taken in the second round but, no, 2nd round picks aren't worth a ton. It's why we keep getting them for Daniel Winnik.
Hockeydb does a "best player by position" for every draft pick:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/draft_bests.php?page=1
Where you can see that they have the best #30 picks as Sandis Ozolinsh and our ol' pal Randy Carlyle and the best #31 picks as two ex-Leafs in Felix Potvin and Tiger Williams.
But if you look through those lists so much of it is random. Picks #35 and #44 have yielded better returns than #32 and #29. There's really no rhyme or reason to it. Good players can be taken in the second round but, no, 2nd round picks aren't worth a ton. It's why we keep getting them for Daniel Winnik.
Neat graph (for Leafs fans, not so much for Kings fans):
herman
Well-known member
#HYPE
Edit: the above chart's explanation of pick value
http://statsportsconsulting.com/2016/05/26/1658/?platform=hootsuite
Value is calculated based on players' TOI over their first 7 years, from the draft classes from 2003-2008. There are some mad-value pieces from those years (Crosby, Ovechkin, Toews, etc.), which drives the value curve maybe a bit steeper than the original valuation (GP).
Edit: the above chart's explanation of pick value
http://statsportsconsulting.com/2016/05/26/1658/?platform=hootsuite
Value is calculated based on players' TOI over their first 7 years, from the draft classes from 2003-2008. There are some mad-value pieces from those years (Crosby, Ovechkin, Toews, etc.), which drives the value curve maybe a bit steeper than the original valuation (GP).