Thomas Vanek traded to NYI

[maplesyrup]

Guarantee? How? That's all speculative. Look, I don't doubt Vanek is the better guy. Where I disagree with a couple of you is how much better. I might have done Moulson and say, a mid round pick but a 1st and a 2nd? Nope. No way.

But as CtB pointed out it's not as if those picks are a sunk cost. The Isles also have months to negotiate an extension with him or deal him at the deadline where that value can probably be recouped.

But they could have used that time to negotiate with Moulson and kept the picks too. Again, I'm not seeing how Vanek over Moulson for 70 games is near worth what Snow gave up.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Eh. I feel Moulson's abilities are being downplayed because of Tavares.

Not at all. He's just a very ordinary top 6 winger with a very ordinary top 6 winger skill level playing with one of the best centres in the league and having that inflate his totals. It's Vanek's abilities that you are downplaying. I mean, look at it this way, Vanek was a 30 goal scorer with guys like Derek Roy and Tim Connolly as his centre. Heck, he scored 40 with Roy one season. In his best season, he scored 43 with Danny Briere as his centre. Tavares will be, by a fairly wide margin, the most talented player he'll line up with. Considering he put up similar or better goal totals to Moulson with lesser talent, do you really truly believe he won't put up significantly better totals with Tavares than Moulson? I said it before and I'll say it again now - it won't surprise me if Vanek scores in the vicinity of 50 goals with Tavares, and that's something Moulson could never dream of.

Briere had 95 points that season.  Why is he listed as someone shocking that Vanek put up great numbers with?  He scored at basically a 100-point pace the season before that, too.

 

[maplesyrup]

Eh. I feel Moulson's abilities are being downplayed because of Tavares.

Not at all. He's just a very ordinary top 6 winger with a very ordinary top 6 winger skill level playing with one of the best centres in the league and having that inflate his totals. It's Vanek's abilities that you are downplaying. I mean, look at it this way, Vanek was a 30 goal scorer with guys like Derek Roy and Tim Connolly as his centre. Heck, he scored 40 with Roy one season. In his best season, he scored 43 with Danny Briere as his centre. Tavares will be, by a fairly wide margin, the most talented player he'll line up with. Considering he put up similar or better goal totals to Moulson with lesser talent, do you really truly believe he won't put up significantly better totals with Tavares than Moulson? I said it before and I'll say it again now - it won't surprise me if Vanek scores in the vicinity of 50 goals with Tavares, and that's something Moulson could never dream of.

I did post earlier that I doubted Vanek would score much more than 5 goals and 10 points more than Moulson over the next 70 games. If he gets 10 more goals and 20 points more, I'll conceed I was wrong on this night (about the difference in abilities) - I still wouldn't have made this trade.

 

[Kin]

But they could have used that time to negotiate with Moulson and kept the picks too. Again, I'm not seeing how Vanek over Moulson for 70 games is near worth what Snow gave up.

But it's Vanek over Moulson for those 70 games and the negotiating rights for the better player. Moulson, over the course of his career, has produced at a 31 goal, 26 assist pace per 82 games while playing alongside Tavares for the entirety of it. Vanek's at 35 goals, 33 assists playing with a pretty mixed bag of centres. That's a legitimate difference by itself and even if you want to say that the difference in linemates has only amounted for a 5 point or so swing for Moulson, which would be pretty hard to buy, that is the difference between an elite player and a pretty ordinary one.

 

[Kin]

Briere had 95 points that season.  Why is he listed as someone shocking that Vanek put up great numbers with?  He scored at basically a 100-point pace the season before that, too.

It's not, but it's worth mentioning that Briere has really never approached that level of scoring without Vanek whereas Vanek basically just put up the same numbers last year playing with Cody Hodgson.

 

[ZBBM]

That much better though? 

EDIT: But Tavares + Vanek should be good.

A mid round 1st and a 2nd? Yeah. That much better. Vanek's a legit 1st line winger, regardless of who he's playing with. I'm not convinced you can say the same of Moulson, who strikes me as someone who's been on the receiving end of the Jonas Hoglund effect.

On an expiring contract?  I don't think potentially 70-odd games of Vanek is worth that.  The Sabres weren't going to re-sign him anyways, and while I'm sure the Isles think they can sign him it's still a risk that they don't, and they still only marginally improve I think - their issues remain in net.

^ This one right here.

Somebody should have sent you over to Garth's office before he pulled the trigger. 

On second thought ... if Vanek wants a big stage, he could have a very nice big new one in Brooklyn if he re-ups -- the hottest borough in NYC -- along with Tavares.  A helluva upgrade over Buffo.

 

[Kin]

^ This one right here.

Somebody should have sent you over to Garth's office before he pulled the trigger. 

On second thought ... if Vanek wants a big stage, he could have a very nice big new one in Brooklyn if he re-ups -- the hottest borough in NYC -- along with Tavares.  A helluva upgrade over Buffo.

Well, but think of it this way, assuming that the following four things are true:

1) The Islanders are lukewarm on re-signing Moulson
2) They believe Moulson's value, and price, is inflated because of playing alongside Tavares
3) They very much want to pair Tavares with a top flight winger to make the most out of his prime years
4) Historically, they've had a very difficult time signing UFA's.

Given those four things, none of which seem like anything resembling a leap, what better way is there for them to land someone of Vanek's ability? Moulson plus a mid round first and a future second isn't enough to land you a younger winger with a bunch of years of control who's at that level or is a sure bet to get there and someone of that ability with multiple years under a reasonable contract is also more expensive than that. Bidding against the league for players is prohibitively expensive and not something that has landed the Islanders the sort of players they want in the past.

So while there's definitely a risk involved because of Vanek's free agent status it seems to me as though thinking that the Islanders could have landed a player of Vanek's ability to play with Tavares any other way doesn't really take into account the realities of the Islanders' situation.

 

[ZBBM]

^ This one right here.

Somebody should have sent you over to Garth's office before he pulled the trigger. 

On second thought ... if Vanek wants a big stage, he could have a very nice big new one in Brooklyn if he re-ups -- the hottest borough in NYC -- along with Tavares.  A helluva upgrade over Buffo.

Well, but think of it this way, assuming that the following four things are true:

1) The Islanders are lukewarm on re-signing Moulson
2) They believe Moulson's value, and price, is inflated because of playing alongside Tavares
3) They very much want to pair Tavares with a top flight winger to make the most out of his prime years
4) Historically, they've had a very difficult time signing UFA's.

Given those four things, none of which seem like anything resembling a leap, what better way is there for them to land someone of Vanek's ability? Moulson plus a mid round first and a future second isn't enough to land you a younger winger with a bunch of years of control who's at that level or is a sure bet to get there and someone of that ability with multiple years under a reasonable contract is also more expensive than that. Bidding against the league for players is prohibitively expensive and not something that has landed the Islanders the sort of players they want in the past.

So while there's definitely a risk involved because of Vanek's free agent status it seems to me as though thinking that the Islanders could have landed a player of Vanek's ability to play with Tavares any other way doesn't really take into account the realities of the Islanders' situation.

But all they have to entice him to stay is Tavares.*  It's not like adding Vanek will suddenly make the Isles a contender, because as Potvin said their main problem is in goal.

As his agent said, goody to get out of BUF but they will wait to see how things play out at the end of the season.  You can bet he will be pressuring Vanek to test the waters, because this will likely be his last big contract.  And really, Vanek would be crazy to re-sign before the end of the season.  He could park himself on a contender, if he so chooses.

* And, like I said, the promise of the Barclays Ctr upgrade ... which is not insignificant but still a bit of a long shot.

 

[Beowulf]

Vanek is light years ahead of Moulson from what I've seen. It's not even close. Tavares and Vanek talent wise is one of the top forward duos in the league. Whether they mesh or not remains to be seen, but my money's on it being a productive partnership.

So definitely don't include me in the "Isles made a horrible deal, Snow=Milbury" camp on this one.

That being said I think this definitely could be a win-win deal as Buffalo got a decent return and continue stockpiling assets for rebuilding; how they utilize those assets remains to be seen.

 

[Jalili]

Vanek is light years ahead of Moulson from what I've seen. It's not even close. Tavares and Vanek talent wise is one of the top forward duos in the league. Whether they mesh or not remains to be seen, but my money's on it being a productive partnership.

So definitely don't include me in the "Isles made a horrible deal, Snow=Milbury" camp on this one.

That being said I think this definitely could be a win-win deal as Buffalo got a decent return and continue stockpiling assets for rebuilding; how they utilize those assets remains to be seen.

I hear ya man, I totally agree.

Moulson is decent, he's not that good though. He's really good around the net, but that's about it. Vanek is like an upgraded version of him.

I think it's a great opportunity for the Isles. But there's always a risk assumption when dealing with a 1st round pick at the beginning of a season.

It wouldn't take that much for that pick to go from mid-1st to top 10, and then starts to not look so good unless Vanek is assured to re-sign.

 

[Omallley]

I actually like this deal for the Islanders. Thomas Vanek is a legitimate first line player. He's miles ahead of Matt Moulson and will be the best player Jon Tavares has played with in his NHL career. Value wise to jump from Moulson to Vanek I think a 1st and a 2nd is fair. Maybe a tad too high but that's the price you have to pay when you're trying to acquire the biggest name on the market.

Most people seem to have an issue with the fact that the Islanders paid this price for a rental player. They're obviously taking a chance here but by making this deal now and not at the trade deadline I think that it's a very calculated one. I mentioned that Tavares has never played with somebody as good as Vanek, but Vanek has never played with a top-10 forward like Tavares either before. The Islanders now have 4 months to try to convince a star player to sign with them. A star player who likely would have never given them a second thought if they came calling on July 1st. If Vanek and Tavares click here and Vanek signs an extension, this deal is an absolute steal for the Islanders.

If the two don't click, or come trade deadline Vanek hasn't shown any interest in re-signing with the team, well then Snow will have an opportunity to trade Vanek again. And this time his large cap hit won't scare away almost all potential suitors. I think he could definitely recoup that 1st round draft pick and get a pretty good prospect as well. At worst he would probably come out even value wise but in that case he's essentially getting Vanek over Moulson for free for 40-50 games.

The only way the Islanders outright lose this trade is if they hang onto Vanek and he walks July 1st. But that's the risk you take when you acquire rentals. Teams make these types of moves all the time at the deadline and they only get about a dozen regular seasons games out of their rental. The Islanders are going to get almost an entire season out of theirs.

Couldn't agree with you any more on this. I like this for the Islanders. It also feels weird to call Vanek a rental when he's going to be with the team for what...85-86% of the season (unless they trade him again for one reason or another - which actually plays in the Islanders favour).

But yeah...paying a 1st and 2nd on top of Moulson for a good upgrade in talent, practically a full season of Vanek's services (including 8 months to convince him to sign there long term), along with the flexibility to trade him again at the deadline? That really isn't much, at all. Definitely not an overpayment to me.

Buffalo didn't make out poorly in this trade either, mind you - they have the chance to flip Moulson into even more picks/prospects if they choose to (as others have pointed out). To me, this is one of those rare trades where I think both teams end up making out just fine based on organizational needs.

 

[Kin]

But all they have to entice him to stay is Tavares.*  It's not like adding Vanek will suddenly make the Isles a contender, because as Potvin said their main problem is in goal.

As his agent said, goody to get out of BUF but they will wait to see how things play out at the end of the season.  You can bet he will be pressuring Vanek to test the waters, because this will likely be his last big contract.  And really, Vanek would be crazy to re-sign before the end of the season.  He could park himself on a contender, if he so chooses.

* And, like I said, the promise of the Barclays Ctr upgrade ... which is not insignificant but still a bit of a long shot.

Well, it's not just the move. I mean, yeah, the Islanders play out in Nassau county but there's no reason that Vanek and his family(assuming he has one) has to spend their time out there. Even without the upcoming move a player who lives out there can still do all his socializing/shopping/whatever in downtown NYC which is a legitimate draw*.

*And while it's worth mentioning that the Islanders play in a terrible barn, Nassau County is not a bad place to live by itself. It's one of the wealthiest areas of the United States and is a half an hour or so from the Hamptons.

And just beyond all that I think it's a lot easier to convince someone to sign a contract if they've been somewhere for a while and enjoyed their time there whether it's because they get along with their teammates or the coach or meet a girlfriend who lives in the area or whatever. The Islanders have had a tough time re-signing guys in free agency even when they've been offering the most money so bringing in a guy they want to sign long term just for a few months can definitely give them a leg up, even if he is determined to test the waters(As in Kovalchuk, Ilya). If Vanek has a number in mind and the Islanders are willing to go there and he likes his time on Tavares' wing that instinct to field a bunch of offers can vanish pretty quick.

 

[Kin]

But yeah...paying a 1st and 2nd on top of Moulson for a good upgrade in talent, practically a full season of Vanek's services (including 8 months to convince him to sign there long term), along with the flexibility to trade him again at the deadline? That really isn't much, at all. Definitely not an overpayment to me.

To that point I think it's worth mentioning that between the 2009 and 2012 drafts the Islanders have 8 players drafted in the top 2 rounds, all of whom are still in the system, only one of whom was drafted below #34 and that includes two players in Reinhart and Strome who were top 5 picks. So they have a little bit of leeway to deal futures.

 

[Beowulf]

Vanek is light years ahead of Moulson from what I've seen. It's not even close. Tavares and Vanek talent wise is one of the top forward duos in the league. Whether they mesh or not remains to be seen, but my money's on it being a productive partnership.

So definitely don't include me in the "Isles made a horrible deal, Snow=Milbury" camp on this one.

That being said I think this definitely could be a win-win deal as Buffalo got a decent return and continue stockpiling assets for rebuilding; how they utilize those assets remains to be seen.

I think it's a great opportunity for the Isles. But there's always a risk assumption when dealing with a 1st round pick at the beginning of a season.

It wouldn't take that much for that pick to go from mid-1st to top 10, and then starts to not look so good unless Vanek is assured to re-sign.

Absolutely I agree, there's a definite risk for the Isles here. But then again there is usually always a risk involved in bigger trades like these regardless of whether draft picks are involved or not.

And I don't think anyone can say it's a crazy, unnecessary risk for them. They get Vanek - a top 10 winger - for almost a full season at the very, very least with the hope that through playing with them for that amount of time he will grow familiar and comfortable and want to stay. He's the type of talent they likely couldn't acquire through any alternative way save drafting him.

And although this is highly unlikely, it's early enough that if they're not very high in the standings and get the impression that Vanek just doesn't want to be there under any circumstances they can recoup some of those assets at the trade deadline. Again that's unlikely, but we are not even out of October yet so it wouldn't be inconceivable.

Another added benefit could be on the financial end for the Isles. Through the first 7 games they have the lowest average attendance in the league (only Phoenix has a lower %capacity). This big name acquisition could reap short term dividends for them in terms of filling seats, jersey sales, etc.  and hopefully beyond that if he sticks around.

 

[Rebel_1812]

this is the ryan smyth trade all over again.  He didn't resign either.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Vanek is light years ahead of Moulson from what I've seen. It's not even close. Tavares and Vanek talent wise is one of the top forward duos in the league. Whether they mesh or not remains to be seen, but my money's on it being a productive partnership.

So definitely don't include me in the "Isles made a horrible deal, Snow=Milbury" camp on this one.

That being said I think this definitely could be a win-win deal as Buffalo got a decent return and continue stockpiling assets for rebuilding; how they utilize those assets remains to be seen.

I think it's a great opportunity for the Isles. But there's always a risk assumption when dealing with a 1st round pick at the beginning of a season.

It wouldn't take that much for that pick to go from mid-1st to top 10, and then starts to not look so good unless Vanek is assured to re-sign.

Absolutely I agree, there's a definite risk for the Isles here. But then again there is usually always a risk involved in bigger trades like these regardless of whether draft picks are involved or not.

And I don't think anyone can say it's a crazy, unnecessary risk for them. They get Vanek - a top 10 winger - for almost a full season at the very, very least with the hope that through playing with them for that amount of time he will grow familiar and comfortable and want to stay. He's the type of talent they likely couldn't acquire through any alternative way save drafting him.

And although this is highly unlikely, it's early enough that if they're not very high in the standings and get the impression that Vanek just doesn't want to be there under any circumstances they can recoup some of those assets at the trade deadline. Again that's unlikely, but we are not even out of October yet so it wouldn't be inconceivable.

Another added benefit could be on the financial end for the Isles. Through the first 7 games they have the lowest average attendance in the league (only Phoenix has a lower %capacity). This big name acquisition could reap short term dividends for them in terms of filling seats, jersey sales, etc.  and hopefully beyond that if he sticks around.

They have the lowest attendance because they essentially told are their fans they don't need them when they said they were leaving town.

 

[Kin]

They have the lowest attendance because they essentially told are their fans they don't need them when they said they were leaving town.

Do you really suppose that a team moving 30 miles away to a far more central and easy to get to location is tantamount to telling their fans they don't need them? I mean, they've had awful attendance for a while now and that seems way more attributable to what a pain it is to get out to Uniondale.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Ryan Miller is next....

I would think so.

They really should burn it down. What do they have to build around?

Myers (sort of), Hodgson, Grigorenko, Foligno......

Move Miller, Ott, Moulson and Ennis if they can at the deadline.

If Gillis hadn't gotten that brain injury and moved Hodgson for Kassian their team would be a total wasteland.

I think they have that Gurgensen also, if that's his name. I think he's a solid prospect. But yeah, they have to start over.

 

[pmrules]

I think this is a fantastic deal for both sides.  Vanek is clearly the better player, and thus the extra picks are justified.

The mere fact that you have roughly equal parties on both sides of the trade just in this thread, says to me it was a pretty fair deal for both.

 

[Zee]

I think this is a fantastic deal for both sides.  Vanek is clearly the better player, and thus the extra picks are justified.

The mere fact that you have roughly equal parties on both sides of the trade just in this thread, says to me it was a pretty fair deal for both.

They better re-sign Vanek or this deal is a catastrophe for the Islanders.