2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
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L K
Well-known member
Like most things, the
The Leafs have had 8 runs with 1 first round win and a record of 24-33. I think that's really what it comes down to. The Leafs could absolutely break their narrative but I think the production being where it is coupled with the inability to win series deciding games hurts the narrative for me.
At the same time, I really do think that the Leafs have been hurt by the division they have played in. The Atlantic division teams have made 7 appearances in the last 6 years and have won 3 of last 6 Cups. The Leafs lost to 4 of those teams.
The Leafs win any one of those series against Montreal, Columbus or one the Game 7 at home against Tampa and I think the narrative largely goes away.
Ovechkin has only made it out of the 2nd round once (they won the Cup that year). Ovechkin played in 9 post-seasons before winning the Cup in his 10th run. Over that time they won 6 first round matchups. The Capitals were 47-50 over 15 playoff rounds.
The Leafs have had 8 runs with 1 first round win and a record of 24-33. I think that's really what it comes down to. The Leafs could absolutely break their narrative but I think the production being where it is coupled with the inability to win series deciding games hurts the narrative for me.
At the same time, I really do think that the Leafs have been hurt by the division they have played in. The Atlantic division teams have made 7 appearances in the last 6 years and have won 3 of last 6 Cups. The Leafs lost to 4 of those teams.
The Leafs win any one of those series against Montreal, Columbus or one the Game 7 at home against Tampa and I think the narrative largely goes away.
I exported 16/17 to Current, Playoff Points Per Game, Top 100 (at least 20 games played). I then added 23/24 cap hit column. I then divided the cap hit by playoff-point-per-game to get a value score. Sorted by worse value:
1. Tavares
2. Matthews
5. Nylander
13. Marner
33. Rielly
Others inside the top 13: Jones, Pettersson, Panarin, Benn, Kopitar, Laine, E. Karlsson, Hertl, J. Gaudreau
1. Tavares
2. Matthews
5. Nylander
13. Marner
33. Rielly
Others inside the top 13: Jones, Pettersson, Panarin, Benn, Kopitar, Laine, E. Karlsson, Hertl, J. Gaudreau
Frank E
Active member
I think it all fits with the suggestion that Tre wants to negotiate with camp Marner, but camp Marner isn't playing ball.
So they're operating under the assumption that Marner is likely to walk, and therefore the trade talk. It was a shot across the bow, and now there's going to be some public pressure, but other than that the team doesn't have any other ammunition or leverage.
2 quick points:
1. I think this playoff run defines Marner's future from the Leafs perspective. If they go far, I think there's more pressure to re-sign him. If they fall well short, then I think the team can save face and let him walk, then move in a different roster construction for the forward corps.
2. If it came down to choosing between having Marner at $13m or Nylander at $11.5m on the roster, I'm taking Marner all things remaining constant.
ZBBM
Well-known member
This debate about whether to let Marner walk is beyond ridiculous.
You cannot replace a player that good. He's the kind of player you dream for years about getting.
The Leafs odds of winning a Cup by running back this Core 4 are higher than the Core 3 + whatever player(s) they sign with Marner's cap space. End of story.
You cannot replace a player that good. He's the kind of player you dream for years about getting.
The Leafs odds of winning a Cup by running back this Core 4 are higher than the Core 3 + whatever player(s) they sign with Marner's cap space. End of story.
dappleganger
Well-known member
Matthews and Nylander were very good in the games they played last year. 
Always interesting to see the blame placed on lack of scoring from the depth players. While that has definitely been an issue for this team, they have been paying half the salary cap to 4 offensive players. You do that because those players are (supposedly) so good that they can dominate/take over games and lead a team to playoff wins. The core group has failed miserably when it counts (game 7s in particular). Will they ever take that next step? Maybe this is the last chance, but with whatever is going on with Matthews it seems like a long shot.
I don't think the Leafs should want Marner to walk or that we should be happy if he does, but I also don't really think the team would be screwed if that's what happens.
We would still have what should be one of the very best top lines in the league in Knies-Matthews-Nylander (Willy playing more top line minutes could get him closer to the 100-point territory we'd expect from a $11.5mil player too). We'd still have the best defence this team has seen in god knows how long signed for next season. We'd still have the best goalie tandem this team has seen in god knows how long signed for next season. And we'd then have a boatload of cap space to spend on fixing problems down the forward line-up.
So I dunno I really do hope Marner has a great playoff run and he and the team can find a number that keeps him here for the rest of his career. But if that's not what happens I don't think it's the end of this era's contention window by any means.
We would still have what should be one of the very best top lines in the league in Knies-Matthews-Nylander (Willy playing more top line minutes could get him closer to the 100-point territory we'd expect from a $11.5mil player too). We'd still have the best defence this team has seen in god knows how long signed for next season. We'd still have the best goalie tandem this team has seen in god knows how long signed for next season. And we'd then have a boatload of cap space to spend on fixing problems down the forward line-up.
So I dunno I really do hope Marner has a great playoff run and he and the team can find a number that keeps him here for the rest of his career. But if that's not what happens I don't think it's the end of this era's contention window by any means.
I'd feel better about this option if the Leafs had some good players ready to move up from the AHL or junior, but the cupboard is pretty bare. And the potential UFA list for this summer looks pretty underwhelming. Now, if there's a realistic possibility that McDavid wants to come here when his contract is up...
I think it's less about a debate of letting him walk vs. fans wanting to be thrown a bone. The Matthews and Nylander deals were signed in season, why can't Mitch sign in season? I think the team is more than willing to give him $13x8 today if he wanted it.
L K
Well-known member
Maybe it's just me but this whole scenario seems overblown. The Leafs engaged in negotiation with Carolina over Rantanen. At one point Carolina asked about a player for player swap. The Leafs took it to Marner. Marner said no. The team didn't continuing pushing.
The Leafs organization has been pretty tight lipped when it comes to front office leaks going back to the end of Dave Nonis. To me anything getting out right now is coming from Marner's cap (or Carolina I guess).
The Leafs organization has been pretty tight lipped when it comes to front office leaks going back to the end of Dave Nonis. To me anything getting out right now is coming from Marner's cap (or Carolina I guess).
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
Marner's numbers were pretty good too but the line lacked finish, hence the low point totals.Matthews and Nylander were very good in the games they played last year.
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
There's the rub. Tre never said he was a priority to re-sign and nobody has said they've even made an offer. People are guessing they will do this or that but there's nothing out there definitively. Now if Tre says we've made an offer for xxx amount, like Neely did with Swayman, there's nothing. Mitch said in October he's willing to sign in season. His agent will take care of that because he just wants to focus on the season ahead.
Then it's settled...
You might be right but it's also beyond ridiculous to run back the same shit 8 or 9 times? I think there's a better argument knowing they cannot win with this core. Whether they get better or worse without Marner is yet to be determined.
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herman
Well-known member
None of that sounds remotely like the Leafs playing games with Marner. They've treated him very well, and it's really not on the organization that his inner circle keeps finding things to feel victimized about. It's quite rich for them to try to tamp down on negative Marner stories in the media (multiple media members have received DMs from his camp), but also the ones that push their talking points through Darren Dreger's pumping scheme. And we know it's coming from the Marner camp because all the other negotiations went quietly.
Great player on the ice, great with teammates off the ice. $13MAAV x 8 in this cap environment is higher than I want but wouldn't bother me if he got it here. But we can't seriously look at everything and say he is in this position because the Leafs are playing games with him.
If you want to see actual playing games with a player in negotiation, Vancouver with Boeser and Pettersson, Boston with Marchand are some recent examples of real assholery.
Ozzie
Active member
Losers lose and winners win.
If you want to win, do what winners do. Think like winners think and make decisions like the winners make. Avalanche, Panthers, Lightening, Golden Knights, Capitals all have won.
Leafs have never won after the point when odds to catch the silver and nickle of the Cup got worse than catching lead in Russian Roulette. Anyone can win in a field of six.
Leafs and its fans have a total loser mentality. And this entire discussion reflects that. We care about hurt feelings and hope the situation can eventually get better without taking risky action to effect that change, while winners focus on results and the specific actions to get them there as fast as possible. We apologize for weakness and make excuses for players when the results are not there.... hoping that things will change instead of effecting change.
Any of the teams that won would not do the types of things this Franchise has done over the past 8 years. To allow Marner's NMC to kick in is negligence. To resign him is foolish. To let him go for nothing is even worse. Terrible management. And this is just one example.
Tampa moved on from Stamkos and kept contracts reasonable so they could afford depth at every position. They are still relevant after two Cup wins. Vegas and Florida swung for the fences by identifying weaknesses and trading their best players to resolve those weaknesses....eventhough they were teams that did substantially better than the Leafs ever did. Florida traded their Marner (Huberdeau with 115 points) and their Rielly (Weegar) to solve the problem, after a Presidents Trophy year....plus sacked their coach all in 6 months because they couldnt win in the playoffs. Colorado got rid of their elite player while they could trade him. Bruins traded their Captain in a contract year, just points away from a wild card.
Not for the Leafs. Because their fans don't hold them to the standard of delivering wins and executing for victory. The corporates will still buy tickets and all the retail that cannot afford seats will still watch the same failure playout each playoffs on TV and buy jerseys and watch unaffordable ticket prices rise. And so its a slow car crash. The changes Florida made in 6 months to effect change, the Leafs take 6 to 10 years to make. It's kind of comical to me.
The day after the Canada US final game in Boston, I called Boston Sports radio to discuss the game. They gave Team Canada their flowers, but they have a total different perspective on Matthews. They think he's a total loser. Every chance he gets to win, he loses. They said he is not capable to show up when it matters. And they specifically said that Matthews "Leafed" America. The guy can score 69 goals when it doesn't matter, but can't score in TD Garden every single time it really matters (whether for the Leafs or Team USA). They debated whether Matthews was a loser before joining the Leafs or the culture here turned him into a loser. Bostonians know, just like many other markets know, that the culture here is a loser culture. Boston knows how to win. They win in every sport. And they can identify what doesn't win. And the fans don't tolerate failures. They call it out.
And don't bother comparing any of this roster to Ovechkin. The guy has carried his team on his shoulders and guaranteed wins in the playoffs that didn't pan out but he kept digging and showing 'do or die' leadership till he won. He is a cookie machine that can put on a cape to carry his entire team to victory. The Leafs have cookie machines, but without the wherewithal of guys like him.
Joe Bowen was asked a few years ago if Matthews was the greatest Leaf ever. He said "TBD" because he hasn't won anything yet. Winning in sports is the goal. And those that lose are not the greatest.
I apologize to all feelings I am hurting right now. I know our culture has a lot of sensitivity in that regard and people get offended and angry. Plus we breathlessly love our hockey heros. And that's the problem. Sometimes you just have to call it out. And forget about hurt feelings.
The management/ownership of this team does not have a winning mentality. I'm not blaming the players. I'm blaming the fans and management/ownership for not being honest about the problems and taking action to properly address them to win. The winner teams do this. The loser teams "hope" things will get better without taking action and avoiding the hard decisions that will for sure hurt people and disrupt things, but may produce a win. And fans make excuses and become apologists for the players. That's where we live culturally with this franchise so the results of this team will not get materially better. It's all about psychology.
So i just continue to watch the Leafs for the beautiful talent they display in the regular season. Yet know that their alchemy is not going to win when it matters most, because the management keeps "running it back again" to the cheers of dreaming fans.
And again, I apologize to my fellow fans who get offended by a post like this. No need to attack me nor get upset. I'm just giving a perspective: Until the franchise thinks and does what the winner franchises do such as Panthers, Lightening, Avalanche etc.... it will lose.
And all of this Marner BS is symptomatic of that losing mentality, IMHO.
If you want to win, do what winners do. Think like winners think and make decisions like the winners make. Avalanche, Panthers, Lightening, Golden Knights, Capitals all have won.
Leafs have never won after the point when odds to catch the silver and nickle of the Cup got worse than catching lead in Russian Roulette. Anyone can win in a field of six.
Leafs and its fans have a total loser mentality. And this entire discussion reflects that. We care about hurt feelings and hope the situation can eventually get better without taking risky action to effect that change, while winners focus on results and the specific actions to get them there as fast as possible. We apologize for weakness and make excuses for players when the results are not there.... hoping that things will change instead of effecting change.
Any of the teams that won would not do the types of things this Franchise has done over the past 8 years. To allow Marner's NMC to kick in is negligence. To resign him is foolish. To let him go for nothing is even worse. Terrible management. And this is just one example.
Tampa moved on from Stamkos and kept contracts reasonable so they could afford depth at every position. They are still relevant after two Cup wins. Vegas and Florida swung for the fences by identifying weaknesses and trading their best players to resolve those weaknesses....eventhough they were teams that did substantially better than the Leafs ever did. Florida traded their Marner (Huberdeau with 115 points) and their Rielly (Weegar) to solve the problem, after a Presidents Trophy year....plus sacked their coach all in 6 months because they couldnt win in the playoffs. Colorado got rid of their elite player while they could trade him. Bruins traded their Captain in a contract year, just points away from a wild card.
Not for the Leafs. Because their fans don't hold them to the standard of delivering wins and executing for victory. The corporates will still buy tickets and all the retail that cannot afford seats will still watch the same failure playout each playoffs on TV and buy jerseys and watch unaffordable ticket prices rise. And so its a slow car crash. The changes Florida made in 6 months to effect change, the Leafs take 6 to 10 years to make. It's kind of comical to me.
The day after the Canada US final game in Boston, I called Boston Sports radio to discuss the game. They gave Team Canada their flowers, but they have a total different perspective on Matthews. They think he's a total loser. Every chance he gets to win, he loses. They said he is not capable to show up when it matters. And they specifically said that Matthews "Leafed" America. The guy can score 69 goals when it doesn't matter, but can't score in TD Garden every single time it really matters (whether for the Leafs or Team USA). They debated whether Matthews was a loser before joining the Leafs or the culture here turned him into a loser. Bostonians know, just like many other markets know, that the culture here is a loser culture. Boston knows how to win. They win in every sport. And they can identify what doesn't win. And the fans don't tolerate failures. They call it out.
And don't bother comparing any of this roster to Ovechkin. The guy has carried his team on his shoulders and guaranteed wins in the playoffs that didn't pan out but he kept digging and showing 'do or die' leadership till he won. He is a cookie machine that can put on a cape to carry his entire team to victory. The Leafs have cookie machines, but without the wherewithal of guys like him.
Joe Bowen was asked a few years ago if Matthews was the greatest Leaf ever. He said "TBD" because he hasn't won anything yet. Winning in sports is the goal. And those that lose are not the greatest.
I apologize to all feelings I am hurting right now. I know our culture has a lot of sensitivity in that regard and people get offended and angry. Plus we breathlessly love our hockey heros. And that's the problem. Sometimes you just have to call it out. And forget about hurt feelings.
The management/ownership of this team does not have a winning mentality. I'm not blaming the players. I'm blaming the fans and management/ownership for not being honest about the problems and taking action to properly address them to win. The winner teams do this. The loser teams "hope" things will get better without taking action and avoiding the hard decisions that will for sure hurt people and disrupt things, but may produce a win. And fans make excuses and become apologists for the players. That's where we live culturally with this franchise so the results of this team will not get materially better. It's all about psychology.
So i just continue to watch the Leafs for the beautiful talent they display in the regular season. Yet know that their alchemy is not going to win when it matters most, because the management keeps "running it back again" to the cheers of dreaming fans.
And again, I apologize to my fellow fans who get offended by a post like this. No need to attack me nor get upset. I'm just giving a perspective: Until the franchise thinks and does what the winner franchises do such as Panthers, Lightening, Avalanche etc.... it will lose.
And all of this Marner BS is symptomatic of that losing mentality, IMHO.
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Bullfrog
Active member
Perhaps I'm confused (and I haven't read all the articles), but wasn't "the package", "the Marner"?There's been follow up reporting that the Leafs were prepared to offer something in the neighbourhood of 13M, not that their conversation with Carolina/Rantenan ever reached that stage.
Making sense of the Maple Leafs’ pursuit of Mikko Rantanen — and the Mitch Marner fallout
The Leafs' biggest move of the trade deadline was one that never ended up happening. What does that mean for the future?www.nytimes.com
I'll say if the negotiation was healthy and the team felt more comfortable about the situation, they would not even bother asking Marner and just try to pivot to those alternative packages and probably not pursue a top-line winger as hard.
Bullfrog
Active member
Not just you. That's what I was trying to say earlier.
Carolina: "hey Tre, we'll trade you Rantanen for Marner?"
Tre: "hey Marner, we got asked about you. Interested in Carolina?"
Marner: "nope"
Tre: "sorry, he doesn't want to be traded."
Carolina: "k, thanks."
Maybe paraphrasing a teeny bit.
The media speculation (and that's all it is) that the Leafs would be willing to give Rantanen more than he got is like me predicting that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
herman
Well-known member
Carolina and Toronto engaged in a conversation around trading Rantanen. Carolina's initial ask was Marner for Rantenan.
Leafs wanted Rantanen long term and were ready to go up to 12-13M x 8.
Leafs asked Marner if he'd waive his NMC for Carolina and he said no, so Leafs pivoted to offering Minten, Cowan, 2026 1st and 2027 1st. Carolina said, no thanks (not wanting to trade in conference either).
That's in theory what I understand. Could it be fabricated? Absolutely.